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AAAAL

American Airlines Group Inc.

$AAL·$11B·Airlines, Airports & Air Services·Industrials
$15.12-3.1%YTD+1.5%1Y+27.1%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-07-09: 303 posts2026-07-10: 331 posts2026-07-11: 93 posts2026-07-12: 224 posts2026-07-13: 369 posts2026-07-14: 231 posts2026-07-15: 318 posts1,889+5%
Price updated 1m ago·X counts updated 2d ago
AAAAL
$AALAmerican Airlines Group Inc.
$15.12-3.07%1.9k posts+5%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Top X posts

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $AAL, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Hinges on a big eventEvent coming upAI verdict · as of 2026-07-16

A known event soon (earnings, a ruling, etc.) will likely decide the next move.

Legacy carrier with the airline-basket tailwind but a broken margin story — the July 23 print decides which frame wins.

American Airlines is the legacy US carrier whose 2026 tape has moved with the airline basket but whose margin story remains the group weak point. Earnings hit in eight days and the setup is decisively event-ahead.

  • The core business is thin: trailing operating margin is only 3%, gross margin 22%, and 44x TTM P/E reflects the earnings compression that leaves AAL behind DAL and UAL — this is a business that participates in an oil-tailwind rally but doesn't earn a premium multiple absent specific margin improvement.
  • The FCF yield is genuinely attractive if the operations hold: 12.3% trailing FCF yield gives real cushion, and $15.63 spot means the market is pricing in continued margin uncertainty rather than a broken thesis — the setup is a mean-reversion candidate if Q2 margins surprise up.
  • The chart bulls' technical case is credible: the technical bounce right at the support zone airlines needed to hold gives the setup a specific level to watch, but the bears' point that USOIL is the only variable that matters means a fresh crude rebound is the specific setup risk.

The July 23 Q2 earnings are the near-term arbiter — Q2 operating margin trajectory (need at least 3-5%), unit-revenue growth affirmation, and any FY26 guide movement extend the setup. A margin miss or a crude rebound during the print keeps the stock stuck in the $14-$16 range.

What to watch: The July 23 Q2 earnings. Watch Q2 operating margin trajectory (need at least 3-5%), unit-revenue growth affirmation, and any FY26 guide movement. A margin miss or fresh crude rebound during the print keeps the stock stuck in the $14-$16 range.

On the calendar: 2026-07-23 — Q2 earnings

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Mixed sentiment5 posts analyzed · as of 2026-07-14

American Airlines chatter is split: bulls flag a nice technical bounce right where the airlines needed to hold and describe the setup as good enough for a long position. Bears counter that USOIL remains the only variable that matters for AAL, with rising oil prices pressuring the shares and reminding investors that fundamentally there is no compelling reason to own the stock, given tight margins on fuel cost spikes.

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $AAL

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
Free, forever. No credit card.

What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Major US network carrier flying domestic and international routes, heavily exposed to fuel costs, labor contracts, and travel demand cycles.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Airlines, Airports & Air Services sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $AAL.

Airlines, Airports & Air Services · Industrials

No material change from last week — two different time horizons.

What this means for $AAL

Direct beneficiary — Major US network carrier flying domestic and international routes, heavily exposed to fuel costs, labor contracts, and travel demand cycles; primary revenue lines track directly to the premium travel demand sustaining yield at high occupancy.

Industry benchmark

9-name peer basket
+34.2%YTD
-10.3%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
44.2How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
2.3%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
3.0%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
12.3%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
0.2Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
-5.2%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
21.8%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
-8.6Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q1 2026Apr 23, 2026$-0.40$-0.46+13.7%
Q4 2025Jan 27, 2026$0.16$0.38-57.9%
Q3 2025Oct 23, 2025$-0.17$-0.28+38.9%
Q2 2025Jul 24, 2025$0.95$0.78+21.8%
Next earningsThu, Jul 23·consensus EPS $0.05

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$13.9B+10.8%26.0%-0.3%$-0.58$3.4B
Q4 FY25$14.0B+2.5%20.0%3.2%$0.15$-1.9B
Q3 FY25$13.7B+0.3%17.3%1.1%$-0.17$-872.0M
Q2 FY25$14.4B+0.4%23.7%7.9%$0.91$464.0M

Forward consensus

5-year forecast · up to 16 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$62.5B$59.1B – $63.6B$0.57-$0.46 – $1.3314
FY27$65.1B$61.3B – $68.7B$2.59$1.09 – $4.1016
FY28$68.4B$68.1B – $68.7B$3.34$2.08 – $4.2016
FY29$72.1B$68.2B – $74.2B$3.89$3.61 – $4.0315
FY30$78.7B$74.4B – $81.0B$5.42$5.04 – $5.6315

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.1.4×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.63%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.+4.5%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.+15.2%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatHigh float · 650.7M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today29.3% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β1.325-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellJun 25David SeymourCOO56.5K sh$1.0MSellJun 24David SeymourCOO69.3K sh$1.2M
+ 35 other (20 awards · 15 inkinds) in window

See when $AAL insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
Free, forever. No credit card.

SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

3New insider — initial holdingsJul 163
AI summary

John W. Dietrich filed an initial Form 3 as a new director of American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL), effective July 15, 2026. No securities are beneficially owned at the time of filing. Routine director appointment disclosure with no financial impact.

8-KOfficer or director changeJul 158-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
AI summary

American Airlines Group (AAL) elected John W. Dietrich to its board of directors on July 15, 2026. Dietrich will serve on the Audit Committee and the Finance Committee, and will be compensated in accordance with AAL's standard non-employee director compensation policy. The company also furnished supplemental Regulation FD information alongside the director appointment. No related-party transactions were disclosed.

8-KOfficer or director changeJun 168-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
AI summary

American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL) filed an 8-K on June 16, 2026 covering officer/director changes (Item 5.02) and a Reg FD disclosure (Item 7.01). Body unavailable — excerpt cuts off before the specific personnel change details and Reg FD content are disclosed.

8-KOfficer or director changeJun 108-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change · Item 5.07: Shareholder vote
AI summary

American Airlines Group held its 2026 Annual Meeting on June 10, 2026, with 661.4 million shares eligible to vote. Stockholders approved the Amended and Restated 2023 Incentive Award Plan, adding 16,500,000 shares to the reserve and allowing withheld shares (on non-option/SAR awards) to be re-granted. Directors were also re-elected. The plan increase represents modest additional dilution potential; otherwise routine annual governance.

8-KMaterial agreementMay 298-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement · Item 2.03: Material debt obligation
AI summary

American Airlines and American Airlines Group Inc. entered into the Twelfth Amendment to their Amended and Restated Credit and Guaranty Agreement on May 29, 2026. The amendment refinanced $1,146.8M in existing term loans and added $703.2M in incremental term loans (total $1.85B in new 2026 Term Loans), bearing interest at SOFR + 3.00% (or base rate + 2.00%), with a final maturity of May 29, 2033 and annual 1% amortization. Material debt refinancing extending AAL's term loan runway by several years and adding ~$703M in new liquidity at a 2033 maturity.

8-KPress release / Reg FDApr 238-K — Item 2.02: Earnings release · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
AI summary

AAL reported period ending 2026-04-23 financial results (8-K Item 2.02). Investors should review the full earnings press release and any management guidance for forward outlook.

8-KPress release / Reg FDApr 208-K — Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
AI summary

AAL filed an 8-K Item 7.01 (Reg FD) disclosure dated 2026-04-20. Reg FD disclosures make material information simultaneously available to all investors; content may include guidance updates, strategic plans, or preliminary results.

3New insider — initial holdingsMar 263
AI summary

Form filed by More than One Reporting Person Table I - Non-De filed a Form 3 (initial ownership statement) for AAL on 2026-03-26, initiating required Section 16 reporting. Role: of Reporting Person. Form 3 is a mandatory administrative filing upon first becoming an insider or 10%+ holder; it does not reflect a purchase or sale event.

+ 17 other (4 8-Ks · 3 13Gs · 2 13Fs · 2 proxys) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

American Airlines to Report Q2 Earnings: What's in the Offing?zacks.com·1d agoAmerican Airlines (AAL) Expected to Beat Earnings Estimates: Should You Buy?zacks.com·1d agoHow Much Upside is Left in American Airlines (AAL)? Wall Street Analysts Think 25.66%zacks.com·1d agoStock Market Today, July 15: American Airlines Is About to Announce Earnings: Here's What Investors Are Watchingfool.com·2d agoAmerican Airlines elects John W. Dietrich to its board of directorsglobenewswire.com·2d ago

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Voices on X · top 1 · last 7 days

TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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