TickerTalks
Browse all tickers →
TickerTalks›$AFRM
AFAFRM

Affirm Holdings, Inc.

Rising onWhy it's trendingStrong bullish X conversationBacked by solid revenue growth
$AFRM·$25B·Financial - Credit Services·Financial Services
$74.45-4.3%YTD+4.2%1Y-9.5%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-08-22: 45 posts2026-08-23: 65 posts2026-08-24: 53 posts294+29%
Price updated 5h ago·X counts updated 7d ago
AFAFRM
$AFRMAffirm Holdings, Inc.
$74.45-4.26%294 posts+29%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
Loading…

AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Top X posts

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $AFRM, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Proven numbersWinding up for a moveAI verdict · as of 2026-08-30

Trading in a tight range and building pressure — a move looks likely soon, but the direction isn't clear yet.

The BNPL leader is finally profitable at real scale — the tape is loading for the next move.

Affirm is the buy-now-pay-later leader whose stock spent 2022-2024 being priced for a credit-cycle collapse and has since delivered what management called 'the most profitable quarter ever.' Shares are essentially flat YTD but the underlying business has fundamentally improved.

  • The revenue and EPS shape has flipped: quarterly revenue ran $876M / $933M / $1.12B / $1.04B, gross margin at 68%, and quarterly EPS at $0.21 / $0.24 / $0.39 / $0.31 — analysts model $4.20B and $1.25 EPS for the full year, so at $78 the stock trades at roughly 62x forward, but the growth rate defends the multiple through the next cycle.
  • The funding-cost picture keeps improving: ABS pricing has tightened to a $750M deal at 5% vs an FQ3 5.8% funding cost — that is a material margin expansion, and it says the credit markets are treating Affirm as an established consumer-finance name, not a bubble-era fintech.
  • The customer stack is now real: 5.2M active Affirm-card cardholders, top e-commerce merchant integrations continuing, and CEO Levchin explicitly framing top-tier merchants as execution rather than blocker — that's the kind of language that reframes AFRM as a durable payments name.

A Nov 5 fiscal Q1 print that shows GMV growth acceleration and Affirm-Card active cardholders growing sequentially uncoils the setup; a soft credit-quality print, a Shopify-integration terms change, or a broader BNPL regulation move is what invalidates the coil.

Agrees with X sentimentX's bullish read matches the mechanics — the ABS spread tightening, the Bollinger squeeze, and the Affirm-Card cadence are all real; the 'Gap-and-Crap' and Ripster-cloud shorts are day-trade tape structure, not fundamentals.

What to watch: The Nov 5 fiscal Q1 print — GMV growth, active Affirm-Card cardholders, ABS spreads, and any commentary on new merchant integrations. A soft credit-quality print or BNPL regulation move is what caps the coil.

On the calendar: 2026-11-05 — fiscal Q1 earnings

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Bullish sentiment87 posts analyzed · as of 2026-08-31

Sentiment is decisively bullish after Affirm's fiscal Q4 print. Posters hammer the same numbers — 33% revenue growth, an eleventh straight quarter of 30%+ GMV growth, and the Shopify expansion into Australia — with several calling this the "most profitable quarter ever" and eyeing a run to $100. Disagreement is tactical: bulls added on the post-earnings dip; skeptics flag the post-print "look above and fail" and dark-pool prints at $81.50 as reasons to fade the tape.

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $AFRM

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
Free, forever. No credit card.

What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Runs buy-now-pay-later installment lending integrated at merchant checkout; growth play on digital commerce credit in North America.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Financial - Credit Services sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $AFRM.

Financial - Credit Services · Financial Services

Consumer credit quality is the central variable; delinquency trends in credit cards and auto loans determine reserve requirements and loss expectations. Rate normalization improves NIM dynamics but a credit cycle turn would offset those gains.

What this means for $AFRM

Direct beneficiary — AI-native product or platform captures spend from the same capex cycle driving the industry; Runs buy-now-pay-later installment lending integrated at merchant checkout; growth play on digital commerce credit in No.

Industry benchmark

18-name peer basket
-2.1%YTD
-11.1%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
56.1How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
10.9%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
11.1%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
3.7%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
5.4Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
11.2%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
67.7%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
2.4Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Aug 27, 2026$4.62$0.35+1230.3%
Q1 2026May 7, 2026$0.30$0.17+76.1%
Q4 2025Feb 5, 2026$0.37$0.28+32.1%
Q3 2025Nov 6, 2025$0.23$0.11+105.2%
Next earningsThu, Nov 5·consensus EPS $0.34

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q3 FY26$1.0B+32.6%65.9%19.5%$0.31$325.4M
Q2 FY26$1.1B+29.6%69.4%10.5%$0.39$118.0M
Q1 FY26$933.3M+33.6%67.7%6.8%$0.24$320.2M
Q4 FY25$876.4M+33.0%67.7%6.6%$0.21$23.5M

Forward consensus

5-year forecast · up to 25 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$4.2B$4.2B – $4.3B$1.25$1.16 – $1.4224
FY27$5.3B$5.1B – $5.6B$1.80$1.39 – $2.3225
FY28$6.6B$6.1B – $7.0B$2.58$1.83 – $3.4523
FY29$8.2B$7.4B – $8.9B$3.77$3.39 – $4.1311
FY30$17.0B$15.9B – $18.3B$4.11$3.77 – $4.519

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.8.9×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.62%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.+0.7%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.+16.9%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatHigh float · 281.3M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today10.3% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β3.625-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellAug 12Watson Noel BertramDirector2.0K sh$156KSellJun 26Michael LinfordCOO100.0K sh$8.0MSellMay 13Watson Noel BertramDirector2.0K sh$130KSellApr 14Watson Noel BertramDirector2.0K sh$110K
+ 33 other (13 exempts · 12 inkinds · 5 awards · 2 others · 1 conversion) in window

See when $AFRM insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
Free, forever. No credit card.

SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

8-KOfficer or director changeAug 278-K — Item 2.02: Earnings release · Item 5.02: Officer or director change
AI summary

Affirm Holdings released its Q4 fiscal 2026 Shareholder Letter (quarter ended June 30, 2026) disclosing financial results including non-GAAP measures with GAAP reconciliations. The filing also covers a 5.02 officer/director event disclosed alongside the earnings. Standard quarterly earnings release; full financials are in Exhibit 99.1.

3New insider — initial holdingsJul 63
AI summary

Ryan M. Schneider filed an initial Form 3 as a newly appointed director of Affirm Holdings, Inc. (AFRM), effective July 1, 2026, reporting no securities beneficially owned. This is a routine administrative filing required upon joining the board — no ownership stake or economic exposure is disclosed.

8-KMaterial agreementJun 258-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement · Item 5.02: Officer or director change
AI summary

Affirm Holdings expanded its revolving credit facility significantly on June 18, 2026, with Barclays Bank as agent: aggregate commitment grew from $330 million to $675 million, and maturity was extended two years to June 18, 2029. The facility is unsecured and bears interest at SOFR plus 1.50% or base rate plus 0.50%. Proceeds are for general corporate purposes; no amounts were drawn at closing. The doubling of available liquidity is a materially positive development, strengthening Affirm's balance sheet flexibility as it scales its buy-now-pay-later business.

+ 10 other (6 13Gs · 1 S-8 · 1 10-K · 1 10-Q) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Affirm Q4 Earnings Beat on Strong GMV Growth, Rising Card Adoptionzacks.com·10h agoAffirm Drops 4% as Post-Earnings Rally Unwinds Despite 36% GMV Growth247wallst.com·15h agoAffirm CEO Sees Greater BNPL Demand as Gas Prices Climbpymnts.com·1d agoAffirm's Blockbuster Growth Still Has Legs - Premium Already Baked-Inseekingalpha.com·3d agoAffirm Q4 Earnings Call Highlightsdefenseworld.net·3d ago

In themes

Explore the broader themes this ticker is being talked about under.

Consumer Fintech & Neobanks

More in Financial - Credit Services

Peers in the same group — one click to compare setups, fundamentals, and chatter.

$SOFI$KLAR$PYPL$V$TRU$MA$AXP$UPST
Voices on X · top 15 · last 7 days

TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

PrivacyTermsSupport