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TickerTalks›$AFRM
AFAFRM

Affirm Holdings, Inc.

Strong FundamentalsStrong FundamentalsRevenue growing 33% YoY at strong marginsStreet coverage with positive forward estimatesConsistent chatter on X (226/wk), no spike
$AFRM·$24B·Financial - Credit Services·Financial Services
$68.36-5.2%YTD-3.9%1Y-15.8%
Price updated 14m ago·X counts updated 2d ago
AFAFRM
$AFRMAffirm Holdings, Inc.
$68.36-5.16%226 posts1×
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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On X

Top X posts

The complete picture of $AFRM on X — how loud the conversation is right now, how it has trended over the last two weeks, and which way the crowd is leaning.

226X posts · last 7 days
Aug 23Sep 7
Chatter Meter
1×
QuietNormal · 1×Loud

How loud $AFRM's conversation on X is versus its own normal — 1× is typical, higher means busier. Right now it's about its usual level.

Bullish sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data26 posts analyzed · as of 2026-09-08

Affirm is being framed as the agentic-payments story per Max Levchin — 'the credit card is finally up for renegotiation.' Metrics cited: PEG 0.6, PE 13, >20% margins, ~50% ROE, and average PT of $99.23. A CLO 10b5-1 pre-set sale is called noise, not signal.

Read what X is saying about $AFRM

  • Bullish vs bearish call — with the AI summary of the day's posts
  • Divergence flag when the top-engagement posts argue the other side
  • How loud the conversation is versus this ticker's own normal
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AI verdictAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

TickerTalks' own read on what's driving $AFRM — fundamentals, momentum, or an event — and whether it agrees with the X crowd.

Proven numbersWinding up for a moveAI verdict · as of 2026-09-09

Trading in a tight range and building pressure — a move looks likely soon, but the direction isn't clear yet.

Affirm is 33% revenue growth with the Affirm Card compounding — Max Levchin's 'credit card is up for renegotiation' framing sitting behind a $99 average PT.

Affirm is the point-of-sale financing platform whose Affirm Card is doing something few fintechs have managed — meaningfully taking share from the incumbent credit-card model. The stock is coiled around its 200-day as fundamentals compound.

  • The revenue engine is genuinely accelerating: Q1 revenue of $1.04B was up 33% YoY at an 11% operating margin, and the Affirm Card contribution is what's driving the mix shift toward the higher-margin recurring-consumer economics — this is not a checkout-BNPL story anymore.
  • Max Levchin's 'agentic-payments' framing is where the multi-year setup lives: as AI-agent shopping proliferates, the credit-card model that penalizes checkout friction gets structurally re-examined, and Affirm's approve-at-transaction stack is the closest existing rail.
  • Insider selling is a real cluster: chief legal officer Katherine Adkins's $3.15M sale plus $1.94M option exercise on Sep 3, combined with Robert O'Hare's $436K — a $5M+ coordinated distribution is a real top-of-house monetization event.

If Q1 fiscal 2027 earnings on Nov 5 confirms Affirm Card GMV continuing to grow above 40% and take rates holding, the coiling breaks higher toward the $99 average PT. A consumer-credit-quality slip or a big-retailer partnership loss is what would extend the pullback — the 56x P/E has room only if the growth cadence holds.

Agrees with X sentimentAgree with the bullish X read — the Max Levchin 'agentic-payments' framing is a real forward setup, and the PEG 0.6, PE 13, >20% margins, and $99.23 average PT are all defensible anchors. Where I'd add: the CLO Adkins Sep 3 $3.15M sale is programmatic but part of a real $5M+ cluster with O'Hare — worth noting even if noise, not signal.

What to watch: Q1 fiscal 2027 earnings on Nov 5 — Affirm Card GMV trajectory, take-rate detail, and any consumer-credit-quality commentary. Continued Card growth above 40% with holding take rates extends the run; a credit-quality slip or partner loss is what stalls it.

On the calendar: 2026-11-05 — Q1 fiscal 2027 earnings

affirm card growthagentic payments setupexecutive selling cluster

Read the AI verdict on $AFRM

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • Whether TickerTalks' read agrees with or diverges from the X crowd
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Runs buy-now-pay-later installment lending integrated at merchant checkout; growth play on digital commerce credit in North America.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Financial - Credit Services sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $AFRM.

Financial - Credit Services · Financial Services

AI-driven underwriting and BNPL expansion are reshaping credit pricing; card network volumes are resilient to consumer caution thanks to premium-spend mix. Higher-for-longer rates compress subprime credit quality while sustaining net interest margins at traditional lenders.

What this means for $AFRM

Partial — Affirm BNPL; Amazon/Shopify integrations drive volume, AI underwriting differentiates, rate environment is the key toggle.

Industry benchmark

18-name peer basket
-9.2%YTD
-19.5%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
56.1How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
10.9%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
11.1%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
3.7%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
5.4Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
11.2%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
67.7%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
2.4Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Aug 27, 2026$4.62$0.35+1230.3%
Q1 2026May 7, 2026$0.30$0.17+76.1%
Q4 2025Feb 5, 2026$0.37$0.28+32.1%
Q3 2025Nov 6, 2025$0.23$0.11+105.2%
Next earningsThu, Nov 5·consensus EPS $0.34

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q3 FY26$1.0B+32.6%65.9%19.5%$0.31$325.4M
Q2 FY26$1.1B+29.6%69.4%10.5%$0.39$118.0M
Q1 FY26$933.3M+33.6%67.7%6.8%$0.24$320.2M
Q4 FY25$876.4M+33.0%67.7%6.6%$0.21$23.5M

Forward consensus

5-year forecast · up to 24 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$4.2B$4.2B – $4.2B$1.24$1.14 – $1.4023
FY27$5.5B$5.4B – $5.6B$1.97$1.36 – $2.5924
FY28$6.8B$6.6B – $7.1B$2.87$2.28 – $3.5820
FY29$8.5B$7.6B – $9.6B$3.98$3.44 – $4.4115
FY30$11.4B$10.6B – $12.2B$5.56$5.10 – $6.077

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.7×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.59%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.-6.3%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.+8.3%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatHigh float · 281.3M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today1.2% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β3.615-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellSep 3Katherine AdkinsChief Legal Officer41.7K sh$3.1MSellSep 2Robert O'hareCFO5.9K sh$436KSellSep 1Katherine AdkinsChief Legal Officer41.7K sh$2.9MSellSep 1Robert O'hareCFO15.7K sh$1.1MSellAug 28Michael LinfordCOO79.2K sh$7.1MSellAug 12Watson Noel BertramDirector2.0K sh$156KSellJun 26Michael LinfordCOO100.0K sh$8.0MSellMay 13Watson Noel BertramDirector2.0K sh$130KSellApr 14Watson Noel BertramDirector2.0K sh$110K
+ 45 other (20 exempts · 17 inkinds · 5 awards · 2 others · 1 conversion) in window

See when $AFRM insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
Free, forever. No credit card.

SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

8-KOfficer or director changeAug 278-K — Item 2.02: Earnings release · Item 5.02: Officer or director change
AI summary

Affirm Holdings released its Q4 fiscal 2026 Shareholder Letter (quarter ended June 30, 2026) disclosing financial results including non-GAAP measures with GAAP reconciliations. The filing also covers a 5.02 officer/director event disclosed alongside the earnings. Standard quarterly earnings release; full financials are in Exhibit 99.1.

3New insider — initial holdingsJul 63
AI summary

Ryan M. Schneider filed an initial Form 3 as a newly appointed director of Affirm Holdings, Inc. (AFRM), effective July 1, 2026, reporting no securities beneficially owned. This is a routine administrative filing required upon joining the board — no ownership stake or economic exposure is disclosed.

8-KMaterial agreementJun 258-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement · Item 5.02: Officer or director change
AI summary

Affirm Holdings expanded its revolving credit facility significantly on June 18, 2026, with Barclays Bank as agent: aggregate commitment grew from $330 million to $675 million, and maturity was extended two years to June 18, 2029. The facility is unsecured and bears interest at SOFR plus 1.50% or base rate plus 0.50%. Proceeds are for general corporate purposes; no amounts were drawn at closing. The doubling of available liquidity is a materially positive development, strengthening Affirm's balance sheet flexibility as it scales its buy-now-pay-later business.

+ 10 other (6 13Gs · 1 S-8 · 1 10-K · 1 10-Q) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Affirm Holdings, Inc. (AFRM) Presents at Goldman Sachs Communacopia + Technology Conference 2026 Transcriptseekingalpha.com·19h agoAffirm: The Affirm Card Engine Is Kicking Offseekingalpha.com·1d agoConsumer Pressure Rises, but So Does Demand for Affirm's Serviceszacks.com·5d agoAffirm Rallies 6% on $104 Price Target From BofA, Sezzle Climbs 4%, PayPal Rises 3%247wallst.com·7d agoBreakfast News: AI's New Rule – Show Me the Money!fool.com·7d ago

In themes

Explore the broader themes this ticker is being talked about under.

Consumer Fintech & Neobanks

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Voices on X · top 11 · last 7 days

TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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