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AFAFRM

Affirm Holdings, Inc.

Strong FundamentalsStrong FundamentalsRevenue growing 33% YoY at strong marginsStreet coverage with positive forward estimatesConsistent chatter on X (397/wk), no spike
$AFRM·$24B·Financial - Credit Services·Financial Services
$70.23-1.4%YTD-6.4%1Y+6.7%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-07-17: 213 posts2026-07-18: 13 posts2026-07-19: 17 posts2026-07-20: 14 posts2026-07-21: 27 posts2026-07-22: 41 posts2026-07-23: 52 posts397-42%
Price updated 20h ago·X counts updated 2d ago
AFAFRM
$AFRMAffirm Holdings, Inc.
$70.23-1.38%397 posts-42%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Top X posts

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $AFRM, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Proven numbersAcceleratingAI verdict · as of 2026-07-25

The move is getting stronger, with heavier trading behind it.

BNPL market leader with two fresh $100 analyst targets — the August 27 print has to reinforce the network-effect thesis.

Affirm Holdings is the US buy-now-pay-later leader, with a merchant network anchored by Shopify and Amazon and a growing consumer-side credit franchise. Down 6% year to date but at 49% of its 52-week range with earnings on August 27, the tape is quiet ahead of a print into a strengthening analyst backdrop.

Why the setup is more constructive than the year-to-date suggests:

  • The fundamentals just delivered a clean beat: fiscal Q3 GMV up 35%, revenue up 33% to $1.04B, and net income of $103M — that combination (GMV acceleration plus positive net income) is what shows the BNPL model has real unit economics beyond the growth-story valuation.
  • Two independent analyst upgrades at $100 anchor the setup: Bernstein SocGen initiating at Outperform plus Compass Point raising to Buy at $100 (from $80) cite an expanding TAM, network effects, and attractive valuation — that convergence of two independent firms on the same target is a meaningful buy-side signal.
  • The valuation still leaves room: at 5.4x sales and 56x trailing P/E, the multiple is priced for continued 30%+ growth, but the improving take-rate and expanding merchant network mean the earnings compound faster than the sales line — a mid-teens fair value from here isn't a stretch if the model plays out.

The August 27 print is the reconciliation: continuing GMV growth above 30% plus a specific commentary on the OpenAI/Shopify integration revenue contribution is what carries the trend toward the $100 analyst target. What breaks the setup is a specific credit-loss disclosure or any additional regulatory-scrutiny commentary from the California Chopra-led BNPL/EWA agency — either would puncture the network-effect framing and cap the re-rate.

Agrees with X sentimentAgrees with the strongly bullish X read — the two independent $100 target initiations, the record fiscal Q3 numbers, and the network-effect framing are all substantive; the California regulatory scrutiny is a legitimate but currently small counter-weight.

What to watch: August 27 fiscal Q4 earnings: GMV growth trajectory above 30%, OpenAI/Shopify integration revenue attribution, credit-loss trends, and any California BNPL/EWA regulatory update — a specific credit-loss disclosure or a regulatory-scrutiny escalation caps the re-rate.

On the calendar: 2026-08-27 — fiscal Q4 2026 earnings

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Bullish sentiment9 posts analyzed · as of 2026-07-24

Affirm was initiated at Outperform with a $100 price target by Bernstein SocGen citing a unique intersection of tailwinds including expanding TAM and network effects at an attractive valuation, and Compass Point separately raised its Buy target to $100 from $80. Fiscal Q3 delivered record numbers with GMV up 35%, revenue up 33%, and net income of $103M. Rising regulatory scrutiny in California BNPL/EWA at the Chopra-led enforcement agency is a small counterweight but the analyst upgrades and fundamentals dominate the tone.

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $AFRM

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Runs buy-now-pay-later installment lending integrated at merchant checkout; growth play on digital commerce credit in North America.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Financial - Credit Services sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $AFRM.

Financial - Credit Services · Financial Services

No material change from last week — AI agents transacting autonomously on behalf of consumers could decouple purchase decisions from card rails, threatening the interchange fee model.

What this means for $AFRM

Neutral — Runs buy-now-pay-later installment lending integrated at merchant checkout; growth play on digital commerce credit in North America; limited read-through from software - infrastructure macro dynamics to this specific revenue mix.

Industry benchmark

18-name peer basket
-2.1%YTD
-12.8%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
56.1How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
10.9%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
11.1%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
3.7%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
5.4Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
11.2%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
67.7%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
2.4Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q1 2026May 7, 2026$0.30$0.17+76.1%
Q4 2025Feb 5, 2026$0.37$0.28+32.1%
Q3 2025Nov 6, 2025$0.23$0.11+105.2%
Q2 2025Aug 28, 2025$0.20$0.12+61.9%
Next earningsThu, Aug 27·consensus EPS $0.33

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q3 FY26$1.0B+32.6%65.9%19.5%$0.31$325.4M
Q2 FY26$1.1B+29.6%69.4%10.5%$0.39$118.0M
Q1 FY26$933.3M+33.6%67.7%6.8%$0.24$320.2M
Q4 FY25$876.4M+33.0%67.7%6.6%$0.21$23.5M

Forward consensus

4-year forecast · up to 24 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$4.2B$4.2B – $4.3B$1.25$1.16 – $1.4223
FY27$5.3B$5.1B – $5.6B$1.80$1.37 – $2.2924
FY28$6.6B$6.6B – $6.6B$2.57$1.84 – $3.5421
FY29$8.0B$7.6B – $8.5B$3.75$3.53 – $4.0710

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.6×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.49%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.-4.3%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.+6.1%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatHigh float · 281.3M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today0.9% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β3.675-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellJun 26Michael LinfordCOO100.0K sh$8.0MSellMay 13Watson Noel BertramDirector2.0K sh$130KSellApr 14Watson Noel BertramDirector2.0K sh$110K
+ 35 other (14 exempts · 13 inkinds · 5 awards · 2 others · 1 conversion) in window

See when $AFRM insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
Free, forever. No credit card.

SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

3New insider — initial holdingsJul 63
AI summary

Ryan M. Schneider filed an initial Form 3 as a newly appointed director of Affirm Holdings, Inc. (AFRM), effective July 1, 2026, reporting no securities beneficially owned. This is a routine administrative filing required upon joining the board — no ownership stake or economic exposure is disclosed.

8-KMaterial agreementJun 258-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement · Item 5.02: Officer or director change
AI summary

Affirm Holdings expanded its revolving credit facility significantly on June 18, 2026, with Barclays Bank as agent: aggregate commitment grew from $330 million to $675 million, and maturity was extended two years to June 18, 2029. The facility is unsecured and bears interest at SOFR plus 1.50% or base rate plus 0.50%. Proceeds are for general corporate purposes; no amounts were drawn at closing. The doubling of available liquidity is a materially positive development, strengthening Affirm's balance sheet flexibility as it scales its buy-now-pay-later business.

+ 9 other (5 13Gs · 2 10-Qs · 2 earnings 8-Ks) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Affirm Holdings (AFRM) Dips More Than Broader Market: What You Should Knowzacks.com·3d agoMastercard vs. Affirm: Which Fintech Stock Has More Room to Run?zacks.com·3d agoAffirm Holdings, Inc. (AFRM) Is a Trending Stock: Facts to Know Before Betting on Itzacks.com·4d agoAllspring Global Investments Holdings LLC Grows Stock Holdings in Affirm Holdings, Inc. $AFRMdefenseworld.net·8d agoAffirming Affirm: This Is Just The Beginning, The Stock Has A Long Way To Goseekingalpha.com·9d ago

In themes

Explore the broader themes this ticker is being talked about under.

Consumer Fintech & Neobanks

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TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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