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AFAFRM

Affirm Holdings, Inc.

Buzzing onWhy it's trendingMoving on elevated volumeStrong bullish X conversation
$AFRM·$25B·Financial - Credit Services·Financial Services
$74.09+5.9%YTD+4.2%1Y-9.9%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-08-23: 65 posts2026-08-24: 53 posts294
Price updated 2h ago·X counts updated 9d ago
AFAFRM
$AFRMAffirm Holdings, Inc.
$74.09+5.93%294 posts
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Top X posts

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $AFRM, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Proven numbersAcceleratingAI verdict · as of 2026-09-01

The move is getting stronger, with heavier trading behind it.

Best BNPL print in company history + 11th straight quarter of 30%+ GMV growth + Shopify Australia expansion.

Affirm Holdings is the leading BNPL (buy-now-pay-later) network in the US, with a growing physical Affirm Card business and international expansion through Shopify. The fiscal Q4 print (Aug 27) validated the whole platform-monetization thesis.

Why the acceleration reads real:

  • Growth is textbook and durable — last quarter revenue grew 33% YoY to $1.04B at a 68% gross margin and 20% operating margin, and this is the 11th consecutive quarter of 30%+ GMV growth; consensus for the fiscal year is $4.2B with $1.25 EPS.
  • The Shopify Australia expansion is a specific new pipeline — Shopify integration in a new market is a named revenue leg that scales without incremental Affirm sales effort; the crowd is right to price it.
  • Structural tape confirms — 56% of the 52-week range, 12% above the 200-day, and volume running 2.8x the 30-day average on the print; broad accumulation, not a narrow spike.
  • The multiple is stretched — 56x trailing earnings, 5.4x sales — but for a real-margin BNPL with 33% growth it is defensible at these levels; a slip in the GMV cadence takes the multiple down with it.
  • Insider tape is quiet — one small $156K director sale in mid-August, no cluster; nothing dispositive.

Acceleration extends on the Nov 5 print with GMV growth staying above 30% and Affirm Card active-user acceleration; the invalidation is any GMV growth slip below 25% or a credit-cost surprise, because the whole model relies on maintaining a healthy loss ratio through the growth.

Agrees with X sentimentX captures the setup — 33% revenue growth, 30%+ GMV cadence, and Shopify Australia are real bullish inputs; the 'look above and fail' tactical bear point is fair for near-term positioning but doesn't break the fundamental frame.

What to watch: Nov 5 earnings — GMV growth above 30%, Affirm Card active-user growth, and credit-loss cost trend; a GMV slip below 25% or a credit surprise is the invalidation.

On the calendar: 2026-11-05 — FQ1 earnings

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Bullish sentiment91 posts analyzed · as of 2026-09-01

Sentiment is squarely bullish after Affirm's Q4 blowout: revenue $1.17B (+33% YoY), GMV $14.1B (+36%), the 11th straight quarter of 30%+ GMV growth, and FY27 guidance of $64B+ GMV. The Shopify Shop Pay Installments launch in Australia and Cantor raising the PT to $97 add to the drumbeat. A handful of technicians flag the shooting-star candle and post-earnings fade, calling for a base rebuild before chasing.

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $AFRM

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Runs buy-now-pay-later installment lending integrated at merchant checkout; growth play on digital commerce credit in North America.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Financial - Credit Services sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $AFRM.

Financial - Credit Services · Financial Services

Consumer credit quality is the central variable; delinquency trends in credit cards and auto loans determine reserve requirements and loss expectations. Rate normalization improves NIM dynamics but a credit cycle turn would offset those gains.

What this means for $AFRM

Direct beneficiary — AI-native product or platform captures spend from the same capex cycle driving the industry; Runs buy-now-pay-later installment lending integrated at merchant checkout; growth play on digital commerce credit in No.

Industry benchmark

18-name peer basket
-2.1%YTD
-10.8%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
56.1How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
10.9%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
11.1%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
3.7%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
5.4Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
11.2%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
67.7%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
2.4Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Aug 27, 2026$4.62$0.35+1230.3%
Q1 2026May 7, 2026$0.30$0.17+76.1%
Q4 2025Feb 5, 2026$0.37$0.28+32.1%
Q3 2025Nov 6, 2025$0.23$0.11+105.2%
Next earningsThu, Nov 5·consensus EPS $0.33

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q3 FY26$1.0B+32.6%65.9%19.5%$0.31$325.4M
Q2 FY26$1.1B+29.6%69.4%10.5%$0.39$118.0M
Q1 FY26$933.3M+33.6%67.7%6.8%$0.24$320.2M
Q4 FY25$876.4M+33.0%67.7%6.6%$0.21$23.5M

Forward consensus

5-year forecast · up to 25 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$4.2B$4.2B – $4.3B$1.25$1.16 – $1.4224
FY27$5.3B$5.1B – $5.6B$1.80$1.39 – $2.3225
FY28$6.6B$6.1B – $7.0B$2.58$1.83 – $3.4523
FY29$8.2B$7.4B – $8.9B$3.77$3.39 – $4.1311
FY30$17.0B$15.9B – $18.3B$4.11$3.77 – $4.519

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.1.8×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.54%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.-9.4%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.+5.2%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatHigh float · 281.3M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today2.8% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β3.625-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellAug 12Watson Noel BertramDirector2.0K sh$156KSellJun 26Michael LinfordCOO100.0K sh$8.0MSellMay 13Watson Noel BertramDirector2.0K sh$130KSellApr 14Watson Noel BertramDirector2.0K sh$110K
+ 33 other (13 exempts · 12 inkinds · 5 awards · 2 others · 1 conversion) in window

See when $AFRM insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
Free, forever. No credit card.

SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

8-KOfficer or director changeAug 278-K — Item 2.02: Earnings release · Item 5.02: Officer or director change
AI summary

Affirm Holdings released its Q4 fiscal 2026 Shareholder Letter (quarter ended June 30, 2026) disclosing financial results including non-GAAP measures with GAAP reconciliations. The filing also covers a 5.02 officer/director event disclosed alongside the earnings. Standard quarterly earnings release; full financials are in Exhibit 99.1.

3New insider — initial holdingsJul 63
AI summary

Ryan M. Schneider filed an initial Form 3 as a newly appointed director of Affirm Holdings, Inc. (AFRM), effective July 1, 2026, reporting no securities beneficially owned. This is a routine administrative filing required upon joining the board — no ownership stake or economic exposure is disclosed.

8-KMaterial agreementJun 258-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement · Item 5.02: Officer or director change
AI summary

Affirm Holdings expanded its revolving credit facility significantly on June 18, 2026, with Barclays Bank as agent: aggregate commitment grew from $330 million to $675 million, and maturity was extended two years to June 18, 2029. The facility is unsecured and bears interest at SOFR plus 1.50% or base rate plus 0.50%. Proceeds are for general corporate purposes; no amounts were drawn at closing. The doubling of available liquidity is a materially positive development, strengthening Affirm's balance sheet flexibility as it scales its buy-now-pay-later business.

+ 10 other (6 13Gs · 1 S-8 · 1 10-K · 1 10-Q) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

SoFi Drops 4%, Affirm Falls 5% as Yields Hit Balance-Sheet Lenders, Robinhood Holds Steady247wallst.com·1d agoAffirm Stock Falls 6% on the Day Bernstein Raises Targetgurufocus.com·2d agoAffirm Q4 Earnings Beat on Strong GMV Growth, Rising Card Adoptionzacks.com·2d agoAffirm Drops 4% as Post-Earnings Rally Unwinds Despite 36% GMV Growth247wallst.com·3d agoAffirm CEO Sees Greater BNPL Demand as Gas Prices Climbpymnts.com·3d ago

In themes

Explore the broader themes this ticker is being talked about under.

Consumer Fintech & Neobanks

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Voices on X · top 15 · last 7 days

TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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