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ADADP

Automatic Data Processing, Inc.

Strong FundamentalsStrong FundamentalsRevenue growing 7% YoY at strong marginsStreet coverage with positive forward estimatesQuiet on X (73 mentions/wk)
$ADP·$108B·Software - Application·Technology
$272.96-1.2%1Y-10.1%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-08-07: 16 posts2026-08-08: 5 posts2026-08-09: 4 posts2026-08-10: 12 posts2026-08-11: 14 posts2026-08-12: 18 posts2026-08-13: 4 posts73+11%
Price updated 20h ago·X counts updated 2d ago
ADADP
$ADPAutomatic Data Processing, Inc.
$272.96-1.18%73 posts+11%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $ADP, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Proven numbersWinding up for a moveAI verdict · as of 2026-08-15

Trading in a tight range and building pressure — a move looks likely soon, but the direction isn't clear yet.

ADP is the HR-payroll compounder at 70% of 52w — Q4 EPS +2% beat, National Employment Report preliminary July estimate, no X signal.

Automatic Data Processing is the world-scale HR outsourcing and payroll platform (Employer Services + PEO) — the equity is a real compounder with durable cash flow and premium fundamentals.

  • Q4 was a beat: EPS $2.64 vs $2.59 estimate (+2%) with revenue $5.47B — the last four EPS prints have all beat consensus, so consensus is calibrated tightly on this compounder.
  • Fundamentals: 48% gross margin, 19% op margin at $5.5B/qtr with 70% ROE, 24% ROIC — wide-moat HR-payroll pricing power. ADP National Employment Report (8/11) gives real labor-market visibility. 'Dividend Growth Gem' framing.
  • Position at 70% of 52w, +11% above 50d and +16% above 200d MA — coiled after continued execution, YoY -10% reflects multiple compression from prior peaks.
  • Analysts project rev $21.9B FY26 → $24.5B FY28 with EPS $11.07 → $13.39. Valuation undemanding: 25x P/E, 17x EV/EBITDA at 24% ROIC — quality-compounder pricing.

October 28 is the next print — a fifth consecutive beat with continued PEO growth commentary extends the compounding; any specific labor-market slowdown affecting employment-based revenue or a competitive-pricing pressure event is the invalidator. The real risk on a labor-adjacent name is that macro-driven unemployment increases compress per-employee revenue growth.

What to watch: October 28 Q1 FY27 print — PEO growth trajectory and labor-market commentary. A fifth beat extends the compounding; labor-market slowdown or competitive-pricing pressure is the invalidator.

On the calendar: 2026-10-28 — Q1 FY27 earnings

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Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $ADP

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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Cloud-based payroll and human capital management platform processing wages for over one million businesses globally.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Software - Application sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $ADP.

Software - Application · Technology

No material change from last week — platforms where agents expand contract value (ServiceNow, Snowflake) are re-rated upward, while tools where agents substitute human users (Adobe Creative..

Top industry ETF

$IGViShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF
-4.2%YTD
-3.9%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
24.7How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
23.9%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
18.6%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
4.6%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
4.9Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
70.2%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
48.2%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.9Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Jul 29, 2026$2.64$2.59+1.9%
Q1 2026Apr 29, 2026$3.37$3.30+2.1%
Q4 2025Jan 28, 2026$2.62$2.57+1.9%
Q3 2025Oct 29, 2025$2.49$2.44+2.0%
Next earningsWed, Oct 28·consensus EPS $2.78

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q4 FY26$5.5B+6.8%53.0%20.8%$2.45$1.2B
Q3 FY26$5.9B+7.0%48.3%30.1%$3.39$2.0B
Q2 FY26$5.4B+6.2%46.1%23.8%$2.63$1.1B
Q1 FY26$5.2B+7.1%45.2%-2.4%$2.50$595.6M

Forward consensus

4-year forecast · up to 12 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$21.9B$21.9B – $22.0B$11.07$11.04 – $11.1012
FY27$23.2B$23.1B – $23.4B$12.25$12.09 – $12.3312
FY28$24.5B$24.4B – $24.9B$13.39$13.08 – $13.5512
FY29$25.9B$25.6B – $26.2B$14.58$14.00 – $14.937

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.6×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.70%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.+11.4%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.+16.0%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatHigh float · 399.0M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today0.4% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β0.825-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellJul 30David KwonCorp VP2.4K sh$641KSellMay 8Brian L. MichaudExecutive VP848 sh$180KBuyMay 7Swan Robert HolmesDirector3.6K sh$746KSellApr 14Christopher D'ambrosioCorp. VP543 sh$106KSellMar 16Christopher D'ambrosioCorp. VP543 sh$113KSellFeb 17Christopher D'ambrosioCorp. VP543 sh$115K
+ 18 other (13 awards · 3 discretionarys · 2 exempts) in window

See when $ADP insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

3New insider — initial holdingsAug 63
AI summary

A new 10%+ beneficial owner filed a Form 3 initial statement of ownership for ADP (ADP) dated 2026-08-06. The filing reports initial beneficial ownership of shares, representing approximately a 10%+ stake of outstanding shares. Form 3 is required within 10 days of crossing the 10% ownership threshold and is an administrative disclosure. This indicates significant insider or institutional accumulation and may precede further Schedule 13D/G activity.

8-KMaterial agreementJun 268-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement · Item 2.03: Material debt obligation
AI summary

Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (ADP) entered into revolving credit option, which in the case of the Five-Year Facility is comprised of U with a counterparty on 2026-06-26, involving $5.7 billion. . This is a material definitive agreement (Item 1.01) requiring immediate disclosure under SEC rules. Investors should review the agreement terms for financial obligations, dilution, or strategic implications.

8-KMaterial agreementMay 78-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement · Item 8.01: Other event
+ 7 other (3 13Gs · 2 earnings 8-Ks · 1 10-K · 1 10-Q) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Automatic Data Processing: Scoop Up This Dividend Growth Gem Nowseekingalpha.com·1d agoAutomatic Data Processing vs. C3.ai: Which Tech Stock Is a Better Buy in 2026?fool.com·3d agoE. Ohman J or Asset Management AB Cuts Position in Automatic Data Processing, Inc. $ADPdefenseworld.net·4d agoADP National Employment Report Preliminary Estimate for July 25, 2026prnewswire.com·4d ago5 Things to Know Before the Stock Market Opens on Fridayinvestopedia.com·8d ago

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Voices on X · last 7 days

No standout posts about $ADP on X in the last 7 days.

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