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ZTZTO

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc.

Strong FundamentalsStrong FundamentalsRevenue growing 23% YoY at strong marginsStreet coverage with positive forward estimatesConsistent chatter on X (547/wk), no spike
$ZTO·$15B·Integrated Freight & Logistics·Industrials
$20.17+0.7%YTD-7.8%1Y+6.3%
Price updated 6h ago·X counts updated 5d ago
ZTZTO
$ZTOZTO Express (Cayman) Inc.
$20.17+0.75%547 posts0.9×
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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On X

Top X posts

The complete picture of $ZTO on X — how loud the conversation is right now, how it has trended over the last two weeks, and which way the crowd is leaning.

547X posts · last 7 days
Sep 29Oct 11
Chatter Meter
0.9×
QuietNormal · 1×Loud

How loud $ZTO's conversation on X is versus its own normal — 1× is typical, higher means busier. Right now it's about its usual level.

AI verdictAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

TickerTalks' own read on what's driving $ZTO — fundamentals, momentum, or an event — and whether it agrees with the X crowd.

Proven numbersWinding up for a moveAI verdict · as of 2026-10-02

Trading in a tight range and building pressure — a move looks likely soon, but the direction isn't clear yet.

ZTO is a cheap Chinese parcel-express leader near 52-week lows — 20% operating margin and growing revenue.

ZTO Express is one of the largest Chinese parcel-delivery operators — the toll-booth on cross-border and domestic e-commerce flows. The business is quality but the stock has been crushed on China sentiment.

  • The business is strong: Q1 revenue +22.6% YoY at a 20.2% operating margin and ROIC of 10.9% — top-decile parcel-express metrics, with volume growth plus pricing-stability on a mix of e-commerce flows.
  • At 10.9x PE and 2.1x sales the valuation is cheap for an operating-margin profile this strong — the market is pricing in continued Chinese macro drag and ADR-structure discount.
  • 52-week range position is 16% with volume at 84% of average — near the floor on quiet volume, consolidating ahead of Nov 18 earnings as the next catalyst.

Nov 18 Q3 is the gate — any volume uptick plus continued pricing stability extends the stock off the floor. A pricing-war headline from JD Logistics or any Chinese regulatory move and the stock stays range-bound at the lows.

What to watch: Nov 18 Q3 — parcel-volume growth, pricing-per-parcel trend, operating-margin trajectory, and FY27 guide. A JD Logistics pricing war or Chinese regulatory move is the clear invalidator.

On the calendar: 2026-11-18 — Q3 earnings

Read the AI verdict on $ZTO

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • Whether TickerTalks' read agrees with or diverges from the X crowd
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

ZTO Express operates China's largest parcel delivery network, leveraging an asset-light model to grow volume with Chinese e-commerce.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Integrated Freight & Logistics sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $ZTO.

Integrated Freight & Logistics · Industrials

No material change from last week — UPS's deliberate Amazon-volume reduction is proving margin-accretive, validating selective-volume discipline over tonnage chasing.

What this means for $ZTO

Neutral — ZTO Express operates China's largest parcel delivery network, leveraging an asset-light model to grow volume with Chinese e-commerce.

Top industry ETF

$IYTiShares U.S. Transportation ETF
+6.7%YTD
+13.0%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
10.9How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
10.9%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
20.2%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
3.8%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
2.1Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
15.9%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
25.1%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.3Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Aug 18, 2026$0.56$0.50+11.8%
Q1 2026May 19, 2026$0.43$0.45-3.5%
Q4 2025Mar 17, 2026$0.47$0.45+4.9%
Q3 2025Nov 19, 2025$0.44$0.35+23.5%
Next earningsWed, Nov 18·consensus EPS $0.48

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q2 FY26$14.5B+22.6%25.7%21.8%$4.00—
Q1 FY26$13.3B+22.0%24.4%18.8%$2.73$2.8B
Q4 FY25$14.3B+10.8%25.4%20.9%$3.29$-988.0M
Q3 FY25$11.8B+10.6%24.9%19.6%$3.16$3.2B

Forward consensus

3-year forecast · up to 15 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$58.2B$54.2B – $63.5B$13.81$13.67 – $13.9512
FY27$63.5B$58.8B – $68.7B$15.44$15.15 – $15.7214
FY28$68.3B$62.6B – $74.6B$16.93$15.73 – $18.6015

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.4×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.25%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.-3.4%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.-12.1%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatHigh float · 750.3M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today0.2% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β-0.235-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

SC 13D/AActivist amendmentSep 22SC 13D/A
AI summary

Alibaba Group Holding Limited filed an amended Schedule 13D (Amendment No. 1) on September 21, 2026, disclosing it beneficially owns 46,941,287 Class A ordinary shares (~6.1%) of ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. across five wholly-owned subsidiaries, with shared voting and dispositive power and no sole authority. Based on 763,430,906 total issued shares per ZTO's September 21, 2026 Form 6-K. This amendment updates Alibaba's ZTO position at the 6.1% level, consistent with an ongoing passive-to-monitoring stake.

3New insider — initial holdingsAug 283
AI summary

Zhu Wei, a newly-appointed director of ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (also listed as HKEX: 2057), filed a Form 3 on August 28, 2026, reporting zero securities beneficially owned as of August 19, 2026. Routine Section 16(a) compliance filing; no market significance.

+ 27 other (27 6-Ks) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

ZTO to Announce Third Quarter Financial Results of 2026 on November 17, 2026 U.S. Eastern Timeprnewswire.com·22h ago13 Graham Value Dividend All-Stars (GVAS) Shine In Octoberseekingalpha.com·2d agoCheetah Net Supply Chain Service (NASDAQ:CTNT) & ZTO Express (Cayman) (NYSE:ZTO) Financial Surveydefenseworld.net·17d agoZTO Express Cayman (ZTO) Down 6% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Rebound?zacks.com·30d agoGraham Value All-Stars (GVAS) Emit 10 Brilliant September Buysseekingalpha.com·35d ago

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TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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