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UPUPS

United Parcel Service, Inc.

$UPS·$88B·Integrated Freight & Logistics·Industrials
$114.06-1.5%YTD+14.9%1Y+10.2%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-07-17: 140 posts2026-07-18: 9 posts2026-07-19: 19 posts2026-07-20: 34 posts2026-07-21: 21 posts2026-07-22: 23 posts2026-07-23: 28 posts287+2%
Price updated 5h ago·X counts updated 5h ago
UPUPS
$UPSUnited Parcel Service, Inc.
$114.06-1.54%287 posts+2%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Top X posts

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $UPS, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Comeback attemptAcceleratingAI verdict · as of 2026-07-22

The move is getting stronger, with heavier trading behind it.

Package giant breaking out of a 4-year bear market — 18-month highs into July 28, 6% dividend at the back.

United Parcel Service is the US package delivery incumbent that just spent four years in a -60% bear market and is now breaking out of a monthly flag with new uptrend potential. Up 17% year-to-date at 18-month highs and sitting in the top 15% of the 52-week range, the equity is finally getting rewarded for the operational discipline that quietly compounded through the downturn.

  • The turnaround is now measurable on the tape: 60%+ bear market recovering into fresh 18-month highs is one of the cleaner mid-cycle setups in industrials, and the 6% dividend yield provides real cash return while the earnings-recovery narrative plays out — the type of setup that pulls in yield-plus-momentum flow simultaneously.
  • The financial trajectory keeps expanding: consensus models revenue growing from $90.4B in 2026 to $94.1B in 2027, EPS climbing from $7.11 to $7.94 — modest revenue growth with real operating leverage, and the $118 price target implies a full 52-week-high retest as consensus warms to the earnings recovery.
  • Sector rotation is confirming the setup: 'making new highs while hot AI names cool off' is the exact framing rotation flow validates — the industrials-plus-yield trade absorbing capital from crowded AI positioning, especially after the Amazon logistics-vertical concerns of 2022-23 have proven overblown.

The July 28 print is the near-term catalyst — a real Q2 revenue beat with any continued small-package density growth or International volume commentary extends the accelerating tape toward the $118 target. A soft print with any Amazon-share-loss commentary or persistent labor-cost inflation and the top-15%-of-range setup gives back some of the year's gains; sector rotation remains the constructive underpinning.

Agrees with X sentimentAgree with the bulls — breaking out of a 4-year bear market into fresh 18-month highs with a 6% dividend behind it is one of the cleanest turnaround setups in industrials, and the rotation-away-from-AI framing is exactly right. The $118 PT and 52-week-high retest thesis is defensible given the operating-leverage math.

What to watch: July 28 Q2 earnings — small-package density, International volume, Amazon-share-loss commentary, and labor-cost inflation trajectory. A soft print or Amazon-share-loss commentary gives back some of the top-15%-of-range setup.

On the calendar: 2026-07-28 — Q2 earnings

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Bullish sentiment31 posts analyzed · as of 2026-07-23

UPS is staging a powerful turnaround from a four-year, roughly 60% peak-to-trough bear market, breaking out on the monthly chart with a ~5.6% dividend yield among the highest in large-cap industrials. Traders flag it as a boring-name bear-to-bull leaps play alongside Target, ahead of Q2 earnings on July 28. Separately, a UPS-branded memecoin community is promoting the second phase of an upcoming CEX listing pump, with both threads directionally constructive despite tracking entirely different assets.

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $UPS

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Global package delivery and supply chain logistics company handling over 25 million parcels daily.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Integrated Freight & Logistics sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $UPS.

Integrated Freight & Logistics · Industrials

No material change from last week — the FedEx Freight spin-off starts trading this week, creating a pure-play LTL company while allowing FedEx to concentrate capital on parcel and express network..

What this means for $UPS

Partial — Global package delivery and supply chain logistics company handling over 25 million parcels daily; partial earnings exposure to integrated freight & logistics demand dynamics through its product portfolio.

Top industry ETF

$IYTiShares U.S. Transportation ETF
+17.8%YTD
+23.6%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
17.6How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
10.1%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
8.6%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
4.9%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
1.0Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
33.0%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
18.1%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
1.6Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q1 2026Apr 28, 2026$1.07$1.02+4.9%
Q4 2025Jan 27, 2026$2.38$2.20+8.2%
Q3 2025Oct 28, 2025$1.74$1.29+34.9%
Q2 2025Jul 29, 2025$1.55$1.56-0.6%
Next earningsTue, Jul 28·consensus EPS $1.66

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$21.2B-1.6%15.8%6.0%$1.02$1.2B
Q4 FY25$24.5B-3.0%20.8%10.5%$2.11$2.6B
Q3 FY25$21.4B-3.6%16.3%8.4%$1.55$1.5B
Q2 FY25$21.2B-2.5%17.8%8.6%$1.51$-775.0M

Forward consensus

5-year forecast · up to 19 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$90.4B$89.4B – $93.1B$7.11$6.83 – $7.1719
FY27$94.1B$92.1B – $96.6B$7.94$7.14 – $8.2519
FY28$96.8B$96.7B – $96.9B$8.55$8.25 – $8.8812
FY29$102.5B$100.5B – $105.4B$10.05$9.80 – $10.4311
FY30$109.4B$107.3B – $112.5B$11.97$11.67 – $12.426

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.9×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.79%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.+6.1%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.+11.2%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatHigh float · 746.4M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today0.6% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β1.035-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

No open-market buys or sells in the last 180 days.

+ 40 other (20 awards · 10 exempts · 10 inkinds) in window

See when $UPS insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

8-KOfficer or director changeJun 158-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change
AI summary

United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS) filed an 8-K Item 5.02 on June 15, 2026 reporting a departure, election, or appointment of a director or officer. Body unavailable — excerpt cuts off before the specific personnel change details are disclosed.

8-KOfficer or director changeMay 138-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change
AI summary

United Parcel Service, Inc. disclosed that board director Kevin M. Warsh resigned from the UPS Board on May 13, 2026, effective upon his Senate confirmation as Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors — a departure that was pre-disclosed in February 2026. His resignation was not related to any disagreement with UPS operations, policies, or practices. Routine board departure with zero surprise element, as the triggering event was publicly known.

8-KOfficer or director changeMay 118-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change · Item 5.07: Shareholder vote
AI summary

At UPS's 2026 Annual Meeting on May 7, 2026, shareowners approved the 2026 Omnibus Incentive Compensation Plan (replacing the prior plan), which covers stock appreciation rights, RSUs, restricted performance shares, and cash awards for employees, directors, and consultants. Twelve directors were elected for one-year terms including Rodney Adkins, Eva Boratto, and Kevin Clark. Routine annual governance; new equity plan introduces a fresh share pool but size was not disclosed in the excerpt.

8-KOfficer or director changeFeb 68-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change
+ 12 other (3 proxys · 2 13Gs · 2 earnings 8-Ks · 1 11-K) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

UPS (UPS) Q2 Earnings Preview: What You Should Know Beyond the Headline Estimateszacks.com·17h agoIs Trending Stock United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS) a Buy Now?zacks.com·17h agoYielding 5.6%, Should Dividend Stock Investors Buy UPS Stock?fool.com·1d ago3 Air-Freight & Cargo Stocks to Watch in a Promising Industryzacks.com·2d agoAndra AP fonden Has $10.22 Million Stake in United Parcel Service, Inc. $UPSdefenseworld.net·2d ago

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TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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