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VAVALE

Vale S.A.

Strong FundamentalsStrong FundamentalsRevenue growing 14% YoY at strong marginsRecent insider buyingQuiet on X (77 mentions/wk)
$VALE·$64B·Steel·Basic Materials
$15.09+0.4%YTD+11.9%1Y+48.4%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-08-22: 6 posts77+8%
Price updated 5h ago·X counts updated 9d ago
VAVALE
$VALEVale S.A.
$15.09+0.40%77 posts+8%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Top X posts

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $VALE, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Proven numbersWinding up for a moveAI verdict · as of 2026-08-30

Trading in a tight range and building pressure — a move looks likely soon, but the direction isn't clear yet.

Brazilian iron-ore major with a slow-burn dam compensation cycle and cheap valuation — waiting on China.

Vale is one of the world's largest iron-ore producers, plus nickel and copper exposure. Shares are +12% YTD and +47% TTM at $15.03, and the underlying setup depends on the Chinese steel-demand tape.

  • Revenue and EPS are running at scale: quarterly revenue ran $8.80B / $10.41B / $11.06B / $9.26B, quarterly EPS at $0.50 / $0.63 / $-0.91 (one-time) / $0.44 — analysts model $41.4B and $1.94 EPS for the full year, so at $15.03 the stock is at roughly 8x forward, cheap for a major iron-ore producer.
  • The Mariana dam-collapse compensation is progressing: Mariana and 18 more Brazil cities joined the Vale-BHP dam-collapse compensation deal — that's the ongoing legal-liability resolution, and a broader settlement removes tape risk without needing a specific catalyst.
  • The demand backdrop is contested: iron-ore prices are what determine the tape more than anything else, and Chinese steel demand is the specific driver — currency and macro also matter for a Brazilian miner, and the Bank of Nova Scotia $3.48M new position adds a small piece of institutional accumulation.

An Oct 29 print that shows iron-ore realized-price expansion, copper/nickel segment stability, and any commentary on Chinese steel demand extends the coil; a Chinese steel-demand roll-over, a further Mariana compensation-cost expansion, or a Brazilian currency shock is what invalidates the setup.

What to watch: The Oct 29 Q3 print — iron-ore realized price, copper/nickel revenue, and any commentary on Chinese steel-demand outlook. A Chinese steel-demand roll-over is the biggest external swing.

On the calendar: 2026-10-29 — Q3 earnings

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $VALE

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Brazil-based mining giant and world's largest iron ore and nickel producer, critical for steelmaking and EV battery materials.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Steel sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $VALE.

Steel · Basic Materials

Infrastructure spending and reshoring of domestic manufacturing are the demand anchors; tariff protection on imports supports US producer pricing. Electric arc furnace operators benefit from scrap feedstock flexibility vs integrated mills.

What this means for $VALE

Partial — upstream oil & gas exposure ties to commodity price cycle; Operating globally and within Brazil, Vale S.

Top industry ETF

$SLXVanEck Steel ETF
+26.6%YTD
+54.4%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
20.8How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
6.9%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
26.3%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
5.6%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
1.5Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
7.7%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
34.5%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.5Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Jul 30, 2026$0.36$0.41-12.2%
Q1 2026Apr 28, 2026$0.44$0.47-6.4%
Q4 2025Feb 12, 2026$-0.90$0.57-257.9%
Q3 2025Oct 30, 2025$0.63$0.49+28.6%
Next earningsThu, Oct 29·consensus EPS $0.50

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$9.3B+14.1%33.0%28.8%$0.44$699.9M
Q4 FY25$11.1B+15.2%36.9%26.3%$-0.91$723.0M
Q3 FY25$10.4B+8.9%36.4%32.8%$0.63$1.2B
Q2 FY25$8.8B-11.3%30.9%22.8%$0.50$732.5M

Forward consensus

5-year forecast · up to 13 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$41.4B$40.5B – $42.0B$1.94$1.66 – $2.5113
FY27$41.2B$40.5B – $41.7B$1.90$1.55 – $2.1313
FY28$42.3B$40.7B – $43.7B$1.92$1.83 – $2.018
FY29$44.8B$43.2B – $46.4B$2.14$2.04 – $2.2412
FY30$46.6B$44.9B – $48.2B$2.63$2.50 – $2.746

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.1.6×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.63%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.+2.4%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.-0.4%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatMega float · 4.3B shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today0.9% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β0.515-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

BuyAug 4Viana Madeira AndreDirector4 sh$60BuyAug 3Viana Madeira AndreDirector5 sh$73BuyJul 3De Souza Funo Elaine MariaAccounting Officer406 sh$6KBuyJul 2Viana Madeira AndreDirector1 sh$15BuyJul 1Viana Madeira AndreDirector1 sh$15BuyJun 17Viana Madeira AndreDirector9 sh$144BuyJun 16Quintao Lara AneliseDirector338 sh$5KSellJun 16Quintao Lara AneliseDirector249 sh$4KBuyApr 1Arap Sobrinho SamiExecutive VP Legal Officer13.0K sh$209KBuyApr 1Tallia Parenti GrazielleOfficer, Sustainability10.5K sh$169K
+ 10 other (10 awards) in window

See when $VALE insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

3New insider — initial holdingsApr 13
3New insider — initial holdingsMar 313
3New insider — initial holdingsMar 313
3New insider — initial holdingsMar 313
3/ANew insider — initial holdingsMar 313/A
3New insider — initial holdingsMar 313
3New insider — initial holdingsMar 313
3/ANew insider — initial holdingsMar 193/A
+ 111 other (80 6-Ks · 17 3s · 10 6-K/As · 3 13Gs) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Jim Cramer Calls This Mining Stock an Inflation Hedge “Just as Good as Crypto”247wallst.com·15h agoBank of Nova Scotia Has $3.48 Million Stake in Vale S.A. $VALEdefenseworld.net·6d agoMariana, 18 more Brazil cities join Vale-BHP dam collapse compensation dealreuters.com·11d agoCetera Investment Advisers Cuts Stock Position in Vale S.A. $VALEdefenseworld.net·24d agoHere Are Wednesday’s Top Wall Street Analyst Research Calls: Archer-Daniels Midland, Best Buy, Burlington Stores, Dell Technologies, e.l.f. Beauty, Humana, Transdigm, Vale, and More247wallst.com·27d ago

In themes

Explore the broader themes this ticker is being talked about under.

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