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USUSAR

USA Rare Earth Inc

$USAR·$1.8B·Industrial Materials·Basic Materials
$10.54-5.0%YTD+17.4%1Y-63.1%
Price updated 6h ago·X counts updated 5d ago
USUSAR
$USARUSA Rare Earth Inc
$10.54-4.96%384 posts1×
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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On X

Top X posts

The complete picture of $USAR on X — how loud the conversation is right now, how it has trended over the last two weeks, and which way the crowd is leaning.

384X posts · last 7 days
Sep 29Oct 11
Chatter Meter
1×
QuietNormal · 1×Loud

How loud $USAR's conversation on X is versus its own normal — 1× is typical, higher means busier. Right now it's about its usual level.

Bullish sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data5 posts analyzed · as of 2026-09-15

US Antimony/USA Rare Earth benefits from the DFARS 2027 critical-minerals deadline expansion and the broader tungsten/rare-earth super trend. Traders share new 2K-share buys at $18.19 and mainnet asset-tokenization coverage adds a small side-narrative.

Read what X is saying about $USAR

  • Bullish vs bearish call — with the AI summary of the day's posts
  • Divergence flag when the top-engagement posts argue the other side
  • How loud the conversation is versus this ticker's own normal
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AI verdictAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

TickerTalks' own read on what's driving $USAR — fundamentals, momentum, or an event — and whether it agrees with the X crowd.

Comeback attemptWinding up for a moveAI verdict · as of 2026-10-03

Trading in a tight range and building pressure — a move looks likely soon, but the direction isn't clear yet.

A rare-earth magnet-plant pre-revenue bet with a new CEO, Vision Blue 7.9% SC 13D stake, and DFARS 2027 as the tailwind.

USA Rare Earth is a US-based rare-earth magnet (NdFeB) producer trying to build a vertically integrated domestic supply chain. The stock is still 40% off its highs TTM with a brand-new CEO as of Oct 1 and the DFARS 2027 critical-minerals clock as the structural tailwind.

  • Revenue is essentially pre-commercial: Q1 2026 of $5.7M against a $2B market cap puts the P/S near 300x — the equity trades entirely on the ramp of magnet-plant production, with 2027 consensus revenue of $636M versus 2028 at $1.7B.
  • Institutional accumulation is real: Vision Blue Resources (Guernsey-based) filed an initial SC 13D on Sep 11 disclosing 7.9% ownership — a 5%+ activist-potential stake is the kind of ownership change that frontruns a strategic transaction or operational step-up.
  • The CEO transition is the pivot event: Thras Moraitis formally assumed the chief executive role on Oct 1, signaling a shift in operating focus right as production-ramp milestones become the stock's trigger.

A DFARS-compliant magnet-production milestone or named defense-contract win re-rates it toward the 52-week highs; another production slip or a cash-raise disclosure before revenue scales and the stock drifts lower on the dilution risk.

Agrees with X sentimentX cites the DFARS 2027 critical-minerals deadline and the broader tungsten/rare-earth super-trend — real tailwinds and consistent with the Vision Blue 7.9% filing. The crowd under-weights the dilution risk (300x P/S means every up-move invites a capital raise) and the fresh CEO execution risk.

What to watch: Nov 5 Q3 earnings — cash runway, production-milestone updates for the Texas magnet plant, and the new CEO's first operational commentary. A signed DoD or OEM magnet-supply contract re-rates sharply; a cash-raise disclosure before contract wins and the stock drops.

On the calendar: 2026-11-05 — Q3 2026 earnings

float missing

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  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • Whether TickerTalks' read agrees with or diverges from the X crowd
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Developing a domestic U.S. supply chain for NdFeB permanent magnets and rare earth processing targeting defense, automotive, and industrial demand.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Industrial Materials sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $USAR.

Industrial Materials · Basic Materials

No material change from last week — US domestic rare earth supply chain buildout remains the structural driver: MP Materials trades on Beijing's forced divestiture of Chinese shareholder, reinforcing supply-chain-security thesis.

What this means for $USAR

Partial — Developing a domestic U.S. supply chain for NdFeB permanent magnets and rare earth processing targeting defense, automotive, and industrial demand.

Industry benchmark

16-name peer basket
-10.1%YTD
-29.0%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
-10.6How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
-4.2%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
-11.9%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
-6.0%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
295.8Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
-76.5%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
-45.3%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.0Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Aug 10, 2026$-0.15$-0.11-33.9%
Q1 2026May 13, 2026$-0.12$-0.13+7.7%
Q4 2025Mar 30, 2026$-0.19$-0.12-58.3%
Q3 2025Nov 6, 2025$-1.64$-0.10-1582.1%
Next earningsThu, Nov 5·consensus EPS $-0.10

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$5.7M—-35.1%-644%$-0.34$-57.1M
Q4 FY25$1.6M—-47.4%-1590%$-0.37$-51.9M
Q3 FY25$0———$-1.64$-9.9M
Q2 FY25$0———$-1.54$-12.2M

Forward consensus

5-year forecast · up to 5 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$68.1M$62.0M – $74.3M-$0.54-$0.68 – -$0.405
FY27$635.8M$504.4M – $767.1M-$0.07-$0.12 – -$0.034
FY28$1.7B$1.4B – $2.2B$0.48$0.01 – $0.825
FY29$2.4B$1.8B – $3.1B$0.78$0.53 – $1.092
FY30$3.0B$2.3B – $4.0B$2.15$1.47 – $3.022

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.8×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.3%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.-34.4%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.-45.2%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatMid float · 193.5M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today5.7% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β2.685-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.FilingActive offeringA shelf registration (S-3 / S-3ASR / S-1) or prospectus supplement (424B*) was filed in the last 90 days — the company is registered to (or actively) issuing new shares. Dilution risk.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellOct 2Barbara HumptonCEO88.4K sh$1.2MSellJun 8Carolyn TrabucoDirector13.0K sh$296K
+ 27 other (15 awards · 11 exempts · 1 inkind) in window

See when $USAR insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

8-KPress release / Reg FDOct 18-K — Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
AI summary

USA Rare Earth, Inc. announced on October 1, 2026 the completion of its CEO transition, with Thras Moraitis formally assuming the chief executive role. The company furnished a press release and a CEO letter to employees as Regulation FD disclosures under Item 7.01. No financial terms, compensation details, or strategic changes were disclosed in the filing. Administrative leadership change completion; strategic significance depends on Moraitis's direction, not announced in this filing.

3New insider — initial holdingsSep 113
AI summary

Denham Mining GP LLC and related Denham Capital Management LP entities (including Denham Mining GP LP, Denham Mining Fund LP, Pembroke Resources II Holdings (Cayman) LLC, MVB Investment Holdings LLC, and Serra Verde Rare Earths Ltd.) filed an initial Form 3 as 10%+ owners of USA Rare Earth, Inc. (USAR), reporting indirect beneficial ownership of 46,809,526 shares plus 152,640 additional shares as of September 3, 2026. This Form 3 confirms Denham Capital's substantial existing stake in USAR, consistent with its resource-focused investment mandate; it signals institutional conviction in the domestic rare earths supply chain thesis.

SC 13DActivist position (5%+)Sep 11SC 13D
AI summary

VB (Rare Earths) Limited and Vision Blue Resources Limited (both Guernsey-based entities, represented by Harry Rouillard) filed an initial Schedule 13D on USA Rare Earth, Inc., reporting shared beneficial ownership of 29,544,227 shares (7.9% of USAR) as of September 3, 2026, based on 375,076,567 shares outstanding. Both entities share voting and dispositive power over the position. This is a new 5%+ holder disclosure for a domestic rare earths producer — Vision Blue appears to be a strategic/resource-focused investor; intent (passive vs. activist) is not specified in the excerpt but the Schedule 13D form (vs. 13G) signals potential active engagement.

3New insider — initial holdingsSep 83
AI summary

Form 3 initial beneficial ownership filing for Michael Lawrence Davis, new officer at US Foods Holding Corp. (USAR), signed via power of attorney by Derek Ching. Davis does not beneficially own any US Foods securities at the time of filing, establishing his Section 16 reporting baseline.

3New insider — initial holdingsSep 83
AI summary

Form 3 initial beneficial ownership filing for Thrasyvoulos Moraitis, new officer at US Foods Holding Corp. (USAR), signed via power of attorney by Derek Ching. Moraitis does not beneficially own any US Foods securities at the time of filing, establishing his Section 16 reporting baseline.

S-3Shelf registrationSep 4S-3
AI summary

USA Rare Earth, Inc. (USAR) filed an S-3 shelf registration statement on September 4, 2026, to register securities for delayed or continuous offering pursuant to Rule 415. The company is a non-accelerated smaller reporting company and emerging growth company incorporated in Delaware, headquartered in Stillwater, Oklahoma. No specific dollar amount or share count is named in the excerpt; the statement is a preliminary/shelf registration pending SEC effectiveness. This is a secondary capital access shelf — potential dilution dependent on future offering terms.

S-3Shelf registrationSep 4S-3
AI summary

USA Rare Earth, Inc. (USAR) filed a second, concurrent S-3 shelf registration statement on September 4, 2026, also for delayed or continuous offerings under Rule 415 (smaller reporting / emerging growth company classification). Filed alongside a separate S-3 the same day under a different registration number. No specific dollar amount disclosed in the excerpt; the shelf is preliminary and pending SEC effectiveness. Two parallel shelf filings on the same date suggest preparation for multiple distinct classes of securities or distinct offering programs.

8-KAcquisition completedSep 48-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement · Item 2.01: Acquisition completed · Item 2.03: Material debt obligation · Item 3.02: Unregistered equity sale · Item 5.02: Officer or director change · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD · Item 8.01: Other event
AI summary

USA Rare Earth (USAR) and SVRE Holdings Ltd. (Serra Verde Rare Earths, a British Virgin Islands company) completed their previously-announced merger on September 3, 2026, with SVRE merging into USAR's subsidiary Middlebury Merger Sub Ltd. The deal — originally announced April 19, 2026 and amended twice (July 16 and September 3, 2026) — makes Serra Verde an indirect wholly-owned USAR subsidiary; exact merger consideration was not fully disclosed in the excerpt but consisted of a combination of consideration types per the Agreement and Plan of Merger. The closing also triggered S-3 shelf registrations and items covering securities issuance, debt obligations, officer changes, and Reg FD presentations filed simultaneously. Transformative: adds a Brazilian rare earth mining operation to USAR's domestic processing footprint, significantly expanding its critical-minerals supply chain.

+ 57 other (12 8-Ks · 10 proxys · 7 13Gs · 5 routine 8-Ks) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

USA Rare Earth Climbs 4% as Month-Long Selloff Pauses; MP Materials Ticks Up, United States Antimony Dips247wallst.com·2d agoRare Earths Stock Extends Slide, Eyes 52-Week Lowschaeffersresearch.com·3d agoCritical Metals Rises 4% on Trump’s Greenland Mineral Exploration Plan; USA Rare Earth Declines 3%, MP Materials Slips 2%247wallst.com·3d agoUSA Rare Earth Drops 6% With Milestone-Based Government Funding Still Ahead of It; MP Materials Falls 6%, Critical Metals Holds Steady247wallst.com·5d agoUSA Rare Earth's $2.8 Billion Brazil Deal vs. Its $1.2 Billion South Carolina Bet: Which One Actually Matters More?fool.com·6d ago

In themes

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Critical Minerals & Rare Earths

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Voices on X · top 1 · last 7 days

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