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TSTSM

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited

Strong FundamentalsStrong FundamentalsRevenue growing 35% YoY at strong margins30 insiders bought $366K in 30 daysConsistent chatter on X (1.5K/wk), no spike
$TSM·$2.2T·Semiconductors·Technology
$415.32-0.5%YTD+33.7%1Y+81.8%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-08-22: 152 posts1,453+11%
Price updated 14h ago·X counts updated 10d ago
TSTSM
$TSMTaiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited
$415.32-0.53%1.5k posts+11%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Top X posts

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $TSM, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Proven numbersAcceleratingAI verdict · as of 2026-09-01

The move is getting stronger, with heavier trading behind it.

Every consequential AI chip still comes out of TSMC's fabs; the multiple is still not stretched relative to what it earns.

Taiwan Semiconductor manufactures the leading-edge silicon for Nvidia, AMD, Apple, and Google's TPUs — the picks-and-shovels position of the AI cycle. Multiple hedge-fund flows into the name (Druckenmiller, Ackman, Soros) capture what the fundamentals already say.

Why the acceleration keeps working:

  • Structural share is the moat — leading-edge foundry is essentially TSMC with Samsung a distant second, and demand (every AI accelerator, every next-gen iPhone) grows faster than the industry can add capacity; that shows up as durable pricing power.
  • Margins are extraordinary — last quarter gross margin ran 66% and operating margin 58%, with 22% YoY revenue growth off a massive base; consensus next year is $530 EPS, putting the forward multiple near 18x.
  • Insider tape is small but on the buy side — multiple executives made open-market purchases in August ($3-100K each); no dollar amount that moves a $2T equity but a directional signal.
  • Structural tape reads healthy — 75% of the 52-week range, 12% above the 200-day, with volume only 55% of average; a low-volume grind up on a mega-cap is the shape of a durable trend.
  • The bearish chart-caller note is an ascending wedge — technically valid but has cried wolf several times.

Oct 15 earnings extends the trend on HBM-adjacent capacity commentary and continued CoWoS packaging tightness; the invalidation is any Nvidia-share-loss signal (a hyperscaler moving Blackwell-successor tape-outs elsewhere).

Agrees with X sentimentX is right on both the fundamental frame (56% net margins, hedge-fund flows, forward multiple) and the note that TSMC captures the AI cycle from a position no competitor can dislodge; the ascending-wedge chart caution is a valid technical but the fundamentals have overpowered it.

What to watch: Oct 15 earnings — HBM/CoWoS capacity commentary and FY27 CapEx guide; any hint of leading-edge tape-outs slipping to a competitor is the only real invalidation.

On the calendar: 2026-10-15 — Q3 earnings

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Bullish sentiment85 posts analyzed · as of 2026-08-30

TSMC is treated as the picks-and-shovels play of the AI cycle, with posters citing Moody's upgrade, a $57.5M November $380-call block, 55.6% net margins, and the fact that every NVIDIA, AMD, Apple and Google TPU chip still comes out of its fabs. Trump-linked and Druckenmiller/Soros/Ackman flows get repeated as validation, and posters frame a 2027 P/E of about 18x as cheap relative to the demand set. A few chart callers flag an ascending wedge and a possible bearish reversal, but the enthusiasm heavily outweighs the caution.

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $TSM

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
Free, forever. No credit card.

What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Manufactures chips for Apple, NVIDIA, and AMD as the world's largest and most advanced semiconductor contract foundry.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Semiconductors sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $TSM.

Semiconductors · Technology

Hyperscaler AI capex keeps Blackwell allocation tight and HBM3e pricing firm; NVDA's data-center backlog and AVGO's networking wins confirm the cycle is not peaking. LLM context-window expansion — the structural demand pull — extends through at least 2H26.

What this means for $TSM

Direct beneficiary — semiconductor products are directly in the AI capex supply chain; Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSMC), along with its affiliated entities, operates globally in the .

Top industry ETF

$SMHVanEck Semiconductor ETF
+56.0%YTD
+94.3%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
31.8How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
25.8%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
53.2%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
1.7%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
14.9Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
36.9%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
61.9%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.2Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Jul 16, 2026$4.31$3.87+11.4%
Q1 2026Apr 15, 2026$3.49$3.31+5.4%
Q4 2025Jan 15, 2026$3.09$2.90+6.6%
Q3 2025Oct 16, 2025$2.92$2.63+11.0%
Next earningsThu, Oct 15·consensus EPS $4.45

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$1.13T+35.1%66.2%58.0%$111.55$377.1B
Q4 FY25$1.06T+21.6%62.3%53.9%$98.40$388.2B
Q3 FY25$989.9B+30.3%59.5%50.6%$89.05$139.4B
Q2 FY25$933.8B+38.6%58.6%49.6%$72.60$197.5B

Forward consensus

4-year forecast · up to 22 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$5.38T$5.09T – $5.55T$530.11$432.01 – $574.0421
FY27$7.17T$6.65T – $7.58T$687.48$562.57 – $800.2622
FY28$9.00T$7.46T – $9.96T$865.30$673.06 – $984.8310
FY29$11.65T$9.66T – $12.89T$1100.32$855.87 – $1252.3115

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.6×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.75%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.-1.7%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.+12.2%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatMega float · 5.2B shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today0.1% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β1.395-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Cluster buy30 insiders bought shares in the last 30 days.

Recent transactions

BuyAug 19Lipen YuanVP1.0K sh$74KBuyAug 18Lipen YuanVP1.4K sh$100KBuyAug 7Yeap Choh FeiSVP57 sh$4KBuyAug 7Zhang Kevin XiaoqiangCOO63 sh$5KBuyAug 7Lipen YuanVP42 sh$3KBuyAug 7Yi-huang WuVP41 sh$3KBuyAug 7Chue-san YooVP51 sh$4KBuyAug 7Chun-hsien LeeSVP54 sh$4KBuyAug 7Chin-sheng LuVP39 sh$3KBuyAug 7Syun-ming JangVP50 sh$4K
1–10 of 156
+ 6 other (4 gifts · 2 expirelongs) in window

See when $TSM insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
Free, forever. No credit card.

SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

3/ANew insider — initial holdingsJun 233/A
AI summary

Amendment to Form 3 filed by A new officer/director (Other (specify below) VP 6. Individual or Joint/Group Filing (Check Applicable Line) X Form filed by One Reporting Person Form filed by More than One Reporting Person Table I - Non-Derivative Securities Beneficially Owned 1. Title of Security (Instr. 4) 2. Amount of Securities Beneficially Owned (Instr. 4) 3. Ownership Form: Direct (D) or Indirect (I) (Instr. 5) 4. Nature of Indirect Beneficial Ownership (Instr. 5) Common Shares (2330.TW) 30,851 D Common Shares (2330.TW) 72,946 (1) I By Spouse Common Shares (2330.TW) 131,000 I By Wei Liang Asset Management Co. Ltd. Table II - Derivative Securities Beneficially Owned (e.g., puts, calls, warrants, options, convertible securities) 1. Title of Derivative Security (Instr. 4) 2. Date Exercisable and Expiration Date (Month/Day/Year) 3. Title and Amount of Securities Underlying Derivative Security (Instr. 4) 4. Conversion or Exercise Price of Derivative Security 5. Ownership Form: Direct (D) or Indirect (I) (Instr. 5) 6. Nature of Indirect Beneficial Ownership (Instr. 5) Date Exercisable Expiration Date Title Amount or Number of Shares Explanation of Responses: 1. This amended Form 3 is being filed to correct the number of Common Shares (2330.TW) reported as owned by the reporting person's spouse in Table I of the original Form 3 filed on June 1, 2026, which inadvertently included 450 Common Shares (2330.TW) not owned by the reporting person's spouse. This amended Form 3 corrects the number of Common Shares (2330.TW) owned by the reporting person's spouse from 73,396 to 72,946, and is deemed to update such information reported in the Form 4 filed on June 9, 2026. Remarks: /s/ Jen-Chau Huang, as attorney-in-fact 06/23/2026 ** Signature of Reporting Person Date Reminder: Report on a separate line for each class of securities beneficially owned directly or indirectly. * If the form is filed by more than one reporting person, see Instruction 5 (b)(v). ** Intentional misstatements or omissions of facts constitute Federal Criminal Violations See 18 U.S.C. 1001 and 15 U.S.C. 78ff(a). Note: File three copies of this Form, one of which must be manually signed. If space is insufficient, see Instruction 6 for procedure. Persons who respond to the collection of information contained in this form are not required to respond unless the form displays a currently valid OMB Number. * Form 3: SEC 1473 (03-26)) at TSM on 2026-06-23. This initial statement of beneficial ownership reports the filer's securities holdings as required under Section 16(a). Filing is routine and indicates an insider's initial ownership disclosure following appointment or acquisition of 10%+ stake.

3New insider — initial holdingsJun 13
AI summary

TSMC officer/director filed an initial Form 3 reporting 50,967 direct shares plus 3,000 shares indirectly through spouse; total beneficial ownership approximately 53,967 Taiwan common shares. Routine Form 3.

3New insider — initial holdingsJun 13
AI summary

TSMC officer/director filed an initial Form 3 reporting 30,851 direct shares, 73,396 held by spouse, and 131,000 held by Wei Liang Asset Management Co. Ltd.; total approximately 235,247 shares. Routine Form 3.

3New insider — initial holdingsJun 13
AI summary

TSMC officer/director filed an initial Form 3 reporting 44,359 direct shares and 63,000 held by spouse; total approximately 107,359 Taiwan common shares. Routine Form 3.

3/ANew insider — initial holdingsMar 313/A
AI summary

Form filed by More than One Reporting Person Table I - Non-De filed a Form 3/A (amended) for TSM on 2026-03-31, initiating required Section 16 reporting. Role: of Reporting Person. Form 3 is a mandatory administrative filing upon first becoming an insider or 10%+ holder; it does not reflect a purchase or sale event.

3/ANew insider — initial holdingsMar 303/A
AI summary

Form filed by More than One Reporting Person Table I - Non-De filed a Form 3/A (amended) for TSM on 2026-03-30, initiating required Section 16 reporting. Role: of Reporting Person. Beneficial ownership covers 5,259 shares. Form 3 is a mandatory administrative filing upon first becoming an insider or 10%+ holder; it does not reflect a purchase or sale event.

3New insider — initial holdingsMar 183
AI summary

Form filed by More than One Reporting Person Table I - Non-De filed a Form 3 (initial ownership statement) for TSM on 2026-03-18, initiating required Section 16 reporting. Role: of Reporting Person. Form 3 is a mandatory administrative filing upon first becoming an insider or 10%+ holder; it does not reflect a purchase or sale event.

3New insider — initial holdingsMar 183
AI summary

Form filed by More than One Reporting Person Table I - Non-De filed a Form 3 (initial ownership statement) for TSM on 2026-03-18, initiating required Section 16 reporting. Role: of Reporting Person. Form 3 is a mandatory administrative filing upon first becoming an insider or 10%+ holder; it does not reflect a purchase or sale event.

+ 67 other (37 3s · 28 6-Ks · 1 SD · 1 20-F) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Elon Musk Is Spending $119 Billion on A Single Building Outside Houston. Here's Who Actually Profits.247wallst.com·16h agoBillionaire David Tepper of Appaloosa Is Overweight AI Stocks -- but He Recently Dumped Every Share of the Hottest AI Stock of 2026fool.com·1d agoNot Nvidia. Not AMD. This Semiconductor Giant Will Be the Ultimate Winner of the Artificial Intelligence (AI) Hardware Race.fool.com·2d agoTSMC vs. ASML: Which Semiconductor Giant Is the Better Stock Buy?fool.com·3d agoThis Was Situational Awareness's Top 5 Holdings at the End of Q2. They're All on Sale Nowfool.com·4d ago

In themes

Explore the broader themes this ticker is being talked about under.

AI InfrastructureSemiconductor OnshoringAdvanced Packaging & AI Interconnect

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Voices on X · top 15 · last 7 days

TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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