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TickerTalks›$TSM
TSTSM

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited

Strong FundamentalsStrong FundamentalsRevenue growing 35% YoY at strong margins30 insiders bought $121K in 30 daysConsistent chatter on X (3.4K/wk), no spike
$TSM·$2.5T·Semiconductors·Technology
$412.61-2.3%YTD+45.2%1Y+37.6%
Price updated 8h ago·X counts updated 5d ago
TSTSM
$TSMTaiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited
$412.61-2.28%3.4k posts1.7×
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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On X

Top X posts

The complete picture of $TSM on X — how loud the conversation is right now, how it has trended over the last two weeks, and which way the crowd is leaning.

3,425X posts · last 7 days
Sep 29Oct 11
Chatter Meter
1.7×
QuietNormal · 1×Loud

How loud $TSM's conversation on X is versus its own normal — 1× is typical, higher means busier. Right now it's running louder than usual, louder than 96% of tracked names.

Bullish sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data11 posts analyzed · as of 2026-10-02

X is bullish on TSMC as the structural leader — Druckenmiller added 94,400 shares in Q2 (now a top holding), Coatue owns $4.3B (8.8% of its portfolio), and four politicians (Allen, Fields, Cisneros, plus one more) started buying this year. The crowd frames TSM as still dominating advanced nodes with Intel Foundry an interesting optionality underneath. No bear voice in the sample; the thread is pure "this is the AI-infra bet to own."

Read what X is saying about $TSM

  • Bullish vs bearish call — with the AI summary of the day's posts
  • Divergence flag when the top-engagement posts argue the other side
  • How loud the conversation is versus this ticker's own normal
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AI verdictAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

TickerTalks' own read on what's driving $TSM — fundamentals, momentum, or an event — and whether it agrees with the X crowd.

Proven numbersEvent coming upAI verdict · as of 2026-10-03

A known event soon (earnings, a ruling, etc.) will likely decide the next move.

The one semiconductor company that gets paid regardless of which hyperscaler wins — now entering the earnings window.

TSMC is the foundry that manufactures the leading-edge chips for Nvidia, Apple, AMD and now most of the AI accelerator roadmap. The thesis has been simple all year: whoever wins the AI race, TSMC collects the fab margin on the silicon.

  • The P&L has gone vertical: last quarter revenue grew 35% YoY in NT$ at a 58% operating margin, and EPS beats of 11% and 5% say the pricing power on 3nm/2nm is holding against capacity that's still over-subscribed.
  • Smart-money positioning backs the trade: Druckenmiller adding 94k shares to make it a top holding and Coatue running an $4.3B / 8.8% portfolio weight are the kind of concentration that doesn't happen on a story — they happen on the P&L.

At 97% of its 52-week range going into Oct 15 earnings, the setup is late-cycle demanding — a Q3 beat plus a Q4 revenue guide that holds the YoY growth rate in the 30%+ band is the trigger for the next leg. Any sign of pricing pressure from Intel Foundry progress or Samsung yield improvement is the one credible threat; absent that, the move extends.

Agrees with X sentimentThe 'structural leader' bull read is well-supported by the fundamentals and the smart-money positioning. The lack of a visible bear voice is the honest flag — stocks at 97% of 52w range usually attract pushback, so the setup is bullish but priced.

What to watch: Oct 15 Q3 earnings — revenue growth rate, gross margin trajectory, and 2027 capex guide. A Q4 guide back into the high-20s YoY is the first real decel signal; a hold at 30%+ extends the breakout.

On the calendar: 2026-10-15 — Q3 earnings

event ahead 30dai infra

Read the AI verdict on $TSM

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • Whether TickerTalks' read agrees with or diverges from the X crowd
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Manufactures chips for Apple, NVIDIA, and AMD as the world's largest and most advanced semiconductor contract foundry.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Semiconductors sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $TSM.

Semiconductors · Technology

No material change from last week — hyperscaler AI capex remains the structural driver with Blackwell supply still packaging-constrained. Jensen Huang publicly named memory bandwidth as AI's next bottleneck, reinforcing HBM3e pricing power. AVGO custom ASIC demand broadens AI beneficiaries beyond NVDA's GPU allocation.

What this means for $TSM

Direct beneficiary — Manufactures chips for Apple, NVIDIA, and AMD as the world's largest and most advanced semiconductor contract foundry.; CoWoS/SoIC packaging is the Blackwell supply constraint, making OSATs a direct AI capex valve.

Top industry ETF

$SMHVanEck Semiconductor ETF
+64.5%YTD
+57.2%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
31.8How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
25.8%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
53.2%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
1.7%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
14.9Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
36.9%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
61.9%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.2Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q3 2026Oct 15, 2026$4.60$4.45+3.4%
Q2 2026Jul 16, 2026$4.22$3.81+10.8%
Q1 2026Apr 15, 2026$3.49$3.31+5.4%
Q4 2025Jan 15, 2026$3.09$2.90+6.6%
Next earningsThu, Jan 21·consensus EPS $4.74

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$1.13T+35.1%66.2%58.0%$111.55$377.1B
Q4 FY25$1.06T+21.6%62.3%53.9%$98.40$388.2B
Q3 FY25$989.9B+30.3%59.5%50.6%$89.05$139.4B
Q2 FY25$933.8B+38.6%58.6%49.6%$72.60$197.5B

Forward consensus

4-year forecast · up to 23 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$5.37T$4.98T – $5.58T$532.68$420.74 – $560.0223
FY27$7.23T$6.46T – $7.78T$696.25$548.27 – $807.8023
FY28$9.04T$8.34T – $9.75T$872.00$784.33 – $960.5913
FY29$11.53T$10.64T – $12.43T$1088.83$979.36 – $1199.4511

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.1.5×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.74%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.-1.0%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.+9.2%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatMega float · 5.2B shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today0.3% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Cluster buy30 insiders bought shares in the last 30 days.

Recent transactions

BuyOct 7Yao-ching KuVP46 sh$4KBuyOct 7Yuan-ko HwangVP39 sh$3KBuyOct 7Jen-chau HuangCFO28 sh$2KBuyOct 7Syun-ming JangVP46 sh$4KBuyOct 7Yung-chin HouCOO60 sh$5KBuyOct 7Kuo-chin HsuVP52 sh$4KBuyOct 7Jun HeVP43 sh$3KBuyOct 7Tzu-sou ChuangVP46 sh$4KBuyOct 7Min CaoVP51 sh$4KBuyOct 7Yung-pei ChinCOO67 sh$5K
1–10 of 201
+ 27 other (21 awards · 4 gifts · 2 expirelongs) in window

See when $TSM insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
Free, forever. No credit card.

SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

3/ANew insider — initial holdingsJun 233/A
AI summary

Amendment to Form 3 filed by A new officer/director (Other (specify below) VP 6. Individual or Joint/Group Filing (Check Applicable Line) X Form filed by One Reporting Person Form filed by More than One Reporting Person Table I - Non-Derivative Securities Beneficially Owned 1. Title of Security (Instr. 4) 2. Amount of Securities Beneficially Owned (Instr. 4) 3. Ownership Form: Direct (D) or Indirect (I) (Instr. 5) 4. Nature of Indirect Beneficial Ownership (Instr. 5) Common Shares (2330.TW) 30,851 D Common Shares (2330.TW) 72,946 (1) I By Spouse Common Shares (2330.TW) 131,000 I By Wei Liang Asset Management Co. Ltd. Table II - Derivative Securities Beneficially Owned (e.g., puts, calls, warrants, options, convertible securities) 1. Title of Derivative Security (Instr. 4) 2. Date Exercisable and Expiration Date (Month/Day/Year) 3. Title and Amount of Securities Underlying Derivative Security (Instr. 4) 4. Conversion or Exercise Price of Derivative Security 5. Ownership Form: Direct (D) or Indirect (I) (Instr. 5) 6. Nature of Indirect Beneficial Ownership (Instr. 5) Date Exercisable Expiration Date Title Amount or Number of Shares Explanation of Responses: 1. This amended Form 3 is being filed to correct the number of Common Shares (2330.TW) reported as owned by the reporting person's spouse in Table I of the original Form 3 filed on June 1, 2026, which inadvertently included 450 Common Shares (2330.TW) not owned by the reporting person's spouse. This amended Form 3 corrects the number of Common Shares (2330.TW) owned by the reporting person's spouse from 73,396 to 72,946, and is deemed to update such information reported in the Form 4 filed on June 9, 2026. Remarks: /s/ Jen-Chau Huang, as attorney-in-fact 06/23/2026 ** Signature of Reporting Person Date Reminder: Report on a separate line for each class of securities beneficially owned directly or indirectly. * If the form is filed by more than one reporting person, see Instruction 5 (b)(v). ** Intentional misstatements or omissions of facts constitute Federal Criminal Violations See 18 U.S.C. 1001 and 15 U.S.C. 78ff(a). Note: File three copies of this Form, one of which must be manually signed. If space is insufficient, see Instruction 6 for procedure. Persons who respond to the collection of information contained in this form are not required to respond unless the form displays a currently valid OMB Number. * Form 3: SEC 1473 (03-26)) at TSM on 2026-06-23. This initial statement of beneficial ownership reports the filer's securities holdings as required under Section 16(a). Filing is routine and indicates an insider's initial ownership disclosure following appointment or acquisition of 10%+ stake.

3New insider — initial holdingsJun 13
AI summary

TSMC officer/director filed an initial Form 3 reporting 50,967 direct shares plus 3,000 shares indirectly through spouse; total beneficial ownership approximately 53,967 Taiwan common shares. Routine Form 3.

3New insider — initial holdingsJun 13
AI summary

TSMC officer/director filed an initial Form 3 reporting 30,851 direct shares, 73,396 held by spouse, and 131,000 held by Wei Liang Asset Management Co. Ltd.; total approximately 235,247 shares. Routine Form 3.

3New insider — initial holdingsJun 13
AI summary

TSMC officer/director filed an initial Form 3 reporting 44,359 direct shares and 63,000 held by spouse; total approximately 107,359 Taiwan common shares. Routine Form 3.

+ 26 other (25 6-Ks · 1 SD) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Taiwan Semiconductor Posts Record Q3 Results: Time to Buy the Dip?zacks.com·7h agoPrediction: $1,000 Invested in Taiwan Semi (TSMC) Today Will Be Worth This Much by 2030.fool.com·11h agoNot Nvidia. Not TSMC. This Equipment Maker Is the Real Bottleneck in AI Chip Production.fool.com·13h agoTaiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Doubles Down on CapEx as Agentic AI Expands, Say Bullish Analystsbenzinga.com·13h agoArm and AMD Fall 5% as Qualcomm Verdict Adds to Chip Selloff; Taiwan Semiconductor Slips247wallst.com·14h ago

In themes

Explore the broader themes this ticker is being talked about under.

AI InfrastructureSemiconductor OnshoringAdvanced Packaging & AI Interconnect

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Voices on X · top 15 · last 7 days

TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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