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TETERN

Terns Pharmaceuticals, Inc.

$TERN·$4.8B·Biotechnology·Healthcare
$52.95-0.0%YTD+31.0%1Y+1220.4%
Mentions · last 7 days
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Price updated 21d ago·X counts updated 21d ago
TETERN
$TERNTerns Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
$52.95-0.03%12 posts
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $TERN, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Broken storyStalledAI verdict · as of 2026-06-25

The move has stalled — likely just drifts unless something new shows up.

Terns was acquired by Merck — May 5 8-K hits every change-of-control item code. The trading ticker now reflects deal mechanics, not a standalone biotech thesis.

Terns Pharmaceuticals is reported here as a $4.77B clinical-stage NASH/obesity biotech up +1220% t12m, but the May 5 2026 8-K was filed under change-of-control item codes 2.01 (completion of acquisition), 3.01 (notice of delisting), 3.03 (rights modification), 5.01 (control change), 5.02 (officer departures), and 5.03 (charter amendment) — the textbook merger-close filing pattern, paired with a 'Merck Completes Acquisition of Terns Pharmaceuticals' press release.

Where the setup actually sits:

  • Broken-story archetype because the standalone equity narrative ended on May 5: 8-K items 2.01 + 3.01 + 5.01 are completed-acquisition + delisting + change-of-control — not the earlier announcement of a deal. The +1220% t12m is the acquisition-premium already paid.
  • Operating data is consistent with a post-acquisition shell or residual: $0 revenue in every recent quarter, $0 gross margin, $0 operating margin, no insider events recorded since the merger close, no next-earnings-date populated. The 'fundamentals' read as a holding company, not an operating company.
  • What was acquired: TERN-701 (CML allosteric BCR-ABL inhibitor with FDA Breakthrough Designation from April 27) is now a Merck asset slotted alongside Keytruda-patent-cliff revenue replacement. The pipeline narrative — anti-PD-L1 + NASH FXR agonist + obesity small molecule — is now Merck's franchise.
  • Sentiment block is empty, and the news entry about 'Tern shares surge as it ups stakes in AI health services company Talking Medicines' is for Tern PLC (UK-listed AI company), a completely different ticker holder — don't conflate.

Stalled fits — the standalone TERN equity story is over; any residual trading reflects deal-close arbitrage or unconverted stock. Coverage is structurally insufficient now that the operating company is a Merck subsidiary. Forward research belongs in MRK, not TERN — the pipeline assets are now part of Merck's oncology and metabolic portfolios.

What to watch: Confirmation of the delisting / completion-of-merger consideration mechanics. Coverage of TERN-701 (CML), TERN-101 (NASH), and TERN-201 (obesity) now belongs in MRK research. Any residual CVR or deferred-payment disclosures from the deal documents.

merger pendingno sentiment availablesentiment off targetinsufficient history

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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Develops small-molecule drugs for NASH and obesity through thyroid hormone receptor beta agonism and related mechanisms.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Biotechnology sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $TERN.

Biotechnology · Healthcare

No material change from last week — ADA conference oral formulation competition is bifurcating biotech multiples between GLP-1 platform holders and precision oncology innovators.

What this means for $TERN

Direct beneficiary — Tern Pharmaceuticals' thyroid hormone receptor beta agonism for NASH and obesity directly positions it in the metabolic disease structural driver adjacent to the GLP-1 obesity market.

Top industry ETF

$IBBiShares Biotechnology ETF
+11.9%YTD
+44.0%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
-51.3How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
-10.9%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
0.0%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
-1.7%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
0.0Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
-20.0%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
0.0%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.0Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q1 2026May 14, 2026$-0.26$-0.30+13.3%
Q4 2025Mar 30, 2026$-0.25$-0.29+13.8%
Q3 2025Nov 10, 2025$-0.27$-0.30+10.0%
Q2 2025Aug 5, 2025$-0.26$-0.28+7.1%

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q4 FY25$0———$-0.24$-19.1M
Q3 FY25$0———$-0.27$-19.8M
Q2 FY25$0———$-0.26$-18.9M
Q1 FY25$0———$-0.26$-24.4M

Forward consensus

5-year forecast · up to 7 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$960K$960K – $960K-$1.16-$1.41 – -$0.767
FY27$5.8M$5.8M – $5.8M-$1.43-$1.62 – -$1.216
FY28$11.8M$11.8M – $11.8M-$1.81-$2.43 – -$1.365
FY29$60.1M$60.1M – $60.1M-$1.51-$1.51 – -$1.512
FY30$220.3M$220.3M – $220.3M-$0.32-$0.32 – -$0.322

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.9×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.100%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.+5.6%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.+84.5%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatMid float · 89.8M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today7.0% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β-0.385-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

No open-market buys or sells in the last 180 days.

+ 12 other (9 returns · 3 tenders) in window

See when $TERN insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

8-KAcquisition completedMay 58-K — Item 2.01: Acquisition completed · Item 3.01: Listing / delisting notice · Item 3.03 · Item 5.01: Change in control · Item 5.02: Officer or director change · Item 5.03: Charter amendment · Item 8.01: Other event
AI summary

TERN disclosed a personnel change (8-K Item 5.02, dated 2026-05-05). A new executive or director appointment is reported. Personnel changes are generally administrative; materiality depends on seniority and circumstances.

8-KPress release / Reg FDApr 278-K — Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD · Item 8.01: Other event
AI summary

TERN filed an 8-K Item 7.01 (Reg FD) disclosure dated 2026-04-27. Reg FD disclosures make material information simultaneously available to all investors; content may include guidance updates, strategic plans, or preliminary results.

8-KMaterial agreementMar 258-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
AI summary

TERN entered into a merger agreement (8-K Item 1.01, dated 2026-03-25). Counterparty: Company, Merck Sharp & Dohme LLC. Material definitive agreement — investors should review the full exhibit for covenants, conditions, and use of proceeds.

8-KMaterial agreementJan 228-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement
+ 37 other (9 13Gs · 9 S-8 POSs · 3 SC TO-Cs · 2 SC 14D9/As) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Tern shares surge as it ups stakes in AI health services company Talking Medicinesproactiveinvestors.co.uk·53d agoMerck Completes Acquisition of Terns Pharmaceuticals, Inc.businesswire.com·74d agoMerck: 'Strong Buy' - Terns Acquisition And Ability To Counter Keytruda Patent Lossseekingalpha.com·76d agoBuy, Sell or Hold MRK Stock With Q1 Earnings Around the Corner?zacks.com·82d agoTerns Pharmaceuticals Announces FDA Breakthrough Therapy Designation Granted to TERN-701 for Certain Patients with Chronic Myeloid Leukemiaglobenewswire.com·82d ago

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Voices on X · last 7 days

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