TickerTalks
Browse all tickers →
TickerTalks›$MRNA
MRMRNA

Moderna, Inc.

$MRNA·$23B·Biotechnology·Healthcare
$140.34+1.7%YTD+91.0%1Y+480.2%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-08-22: 307 posts13,513+2%
Price updated 7h ago·X counts updated 9d ago
MRMRNA
$MRNAModerna, Inc.
$140.34+1.70%14k posts+2%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
Loading…

AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Top X posts

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $MRNA, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Hinges on a big eventCooling offAI verdict · as of 2026-08-30

Catching its breath after a run — could pick back up or fade from here.

The Merck melanoma vaccine win vindicates the mRNA platform — now the market has to price the pipeline, not the pop.

Moderna is the mRNA platform company whose thesis has just been re-anointed: its melanoma vaccine partnered with Merck cleared a Phase 3 readout, sending the stock up more than 150% and putting an mRNA cancer treatment on the map for the first time. The tape has been digesting that spike since, and is now trading through what the platform is actually worth.

  • The re-rate has been violent and real: the stock is up ~91% YTD and roughly 460% over twelve months, up from a lows-of-cycle valuation that reflected pandemic revenue rolling off — so this isn't a hype move, it's a repricing of platform optionality after the first clean win.
  • The base business hasn't caught up yet: last quarter printed $389M of revenue at a negative gross margin (about -139%) and a $3.40 loss per share, and analysts still model a 2026 EPS loss around $8.67 — the melanoma vaccine matters because it changes the pipeline value, not because it fixes this year's P&L.
  • The financing side isn't free: the freshly upsized $2.6B convertible offering strengthens the runway for pipeline execution but adds a dilution overhang priced through the conversion structure, which caps how tightly the stock can hug any near-term partner milestone.

If the Merck partnership converts into an approvable label and follow-on cancer readouts land, the $150B take-out chatter around a $23B company starts to look less silly; if the mid-stage pipeline slips or the platform hits another regulatory patch, the base P&L is what the market falls back on and the digestion becomes a give-back.

Agrees with X sentimentX's celebration of the Merck readout is warranted — it is a genuine platform validation — but the 'template ignition' framing alongside TEM/CHYM overshoots by treating unpriced take-out speculation as if it were a dated catalyst.

What to watch: The Nov 5 Q3 print for pipeline milestones and any commercial commentary around the Merck partnership, plus dated readouts on the next tumor indications. A Phase 3 slip anywhere in the vaccine platform reverses this re-rate.

On the calendar: 2026-11-05 — Q3 earnings

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Mixed sentiment124 posts analyzed · as of 2026-08-31

The conversation is loud and split following the roughly 177% single-day rip on the intismeran plus Keytruda Phase 3 melanoma win. Bulls point to the Argus upgrade, a $2.6B convert priced at a $210.58 conversion strike, and institutional accumulation, calling further $200 runs live. Skeptics counter that "melanoma was quite literally the lowest-hanging fruit," flag valuation stretch, and note BNTX's colorectal read-through as a warning for broader tumor efficacy.

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $MRNA

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
Free, forever. No credit card.

What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Develops mRNA-based vaccines and therapeutics, known for its COVID-19 vaccine and diversifying into RSV, flu, and oncology.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Biotechnology sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $MRNA.

Biotechnology · Healthcare

GLP-1 oral formulation competition — emerging clinical data from pipeline challengers — is the central bifurcation: platform holders (LLY, NVO) defend on efficacy breadth while precision oncology names decouple entirely. FDA catalyst cadence over the next 60 days sets the near-term tone.

What this means for $MRNA

Partial — fee-based midstream revenue has limited direct commodity price exposure but volume ties to upstream production activity.

Top industry ETF

$IBBiShares Biotechnology ETF
+12.1%YTD
+48.9%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
-5.9How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
-37.3%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
-153%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
-8.4%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
8.5Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
-36.7%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
-13.9%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.2Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Jul 31, 2026$-1.97$-2.03+3.0%
Q1 2026May 1, 2026$-3.40$-4.45+23.6%
Q4 2025Feb 13, 2026$-2.11$-2.54+16.9%
Q3 2025Nov 6, 2025$-0.51$-1.87+72.7%
Next earningsThu, Nov 5·consensus EPS $-1.16

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$389.0M+263.6%-146%-357%$-3.40$-692.0M
Q4 FY25$678.0M-29.1%33.3%-126%$-2.11$912.0M
Q3 FY25$1.0B-45.2%0.8%-25.6%$-0.51$-880.0M
Q2 FY25$142.0M-35.7%16.2%-639%$-2.13$-922.0M

Forward consensus

5-year forecast · up to 16 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$2.1B$1.9B – $2.1B-$8.67-$9.51 – -$7.5016
FY27$2.5B$1.9B – $4.3B-$4.77-$6.30 – -$0.0915
FY28$3.3B$2.2B – $7.3B-$2.74-$4.33 – $0.6416
FY29$5.2B$4.2B – $8.6B$0.21$0.15 – $0.3815
FY30$6.9B$5.5B – $11.3B$2.64$1.96 – $4.8215

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.8×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.76%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.+79.2%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.+168.2%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatHigh float · 372.3M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today5.0% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β0.905-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellAug 5Stephane BancelCEO499.2K sh$28.7MSellJul 15Stephen HogePresident53.3K sh$3.6MSellJun 15Stephen HogePresident53.3K sh$2.7MSellJun 4Klinger Shannon ThymeChief Legal Officer3.5K sh$174KSellMay 21Noubar AfeyanDirector9.3K sh$434KSellMay 15Stephen HogePresident53.3K sh$2.6MSellMay 1Abbas HussainDirector5.7K sh$265K
+ 46 other (25 exempts · 12 inkinds · 9 awards) in window

See when $MRNA insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
Free, forever. No credit card.

SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

3New insider — initial holdingsJul 103
AI summary

A new director of Moderna Inc. (MRNA) filed an initial Form 3 on July 10, 2026, disclosing no beneficially owned securities of Moderna. This filing initiates the director's reporting obligations under Section 16(a) of the Securities Exchange Act.

8-KOfficer or director changeJul 88-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
AI summary

Moderna announced that Michael McDonnell, former Chief Financial Officer of Biogen, has been appointed to the company's Board of Directors. Concurrently, existing director Pablo Legorreta was reassigned to the Nominating and Corporate Governance Committee to optimize committee composition. McDonnell brings deep biopharma finance expertise from his tenure at Biogen. The board addition signals Moderna's continued investment in financial governance as the company navigates the post-COVID transition to its broader respiratory and oncology vaccine pipeline.

3New insider — initial holdingsJun 303
AI summary

Ester Banque Soria, Chief Commercial Officer of Moderna, filed a Form 3 initial beneficial ownership statement as of June 15, 2026. Administrative disclosure.

8-KCharter amendmentMay 118-K — Item 5.03: Charter amendment · Item 5.07: Shareholder vote
AI summary

MRNA held its Annual Meeting of stockholders around 2026-05-11 (8-K Item 5.07). The meeting was adjourned, likely due to insufficient quorum. Routine governance event — monitor for unusually high withhold votes as an activist signal.

8-KMaterial agreementMar 58-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement
+ 12 other (5 13Gs · 2 10-Qs · 2 earnings 8-Ks · 2 proxys) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Alyeska Investment Group L.P. Trims Stake in Moderna, Inc. $MRNAdefenseworld.net·1d agoModerna, Inc. (NASDAQ:MRNA) Given Average Rating of “Hold” by Brokeragesdefenseworld.net·1d agoIs It Too Late to Buy Moderna Stock After Its 127% Surge?fool.com·2d ago‘This Breakup Saved You Far More Than Moderna Ever Could’: Orman to Woman Dumped After 180% Spike247wallst.com·2d agoThis Moderna Analyst Turns Bullish; Here Are Top 3 Upgrades For Fridaybenzinga.com·4d ago

More in Biotechnology

Peers in the same group — one click to compare setups, fundamentals, and chatter.

$ALT$AURA$IOVA$NWBO$SLS$AMLX$ABCL$ABVX
Voices on X · top 15 · last 7 days

TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

PrivacyTermsSupport