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TickerTalks›$MRNA
MRMRNA

Moderna, Inc.

$MRNA·$89B·Biotechnology·Healthcare
$218.01-7.8%YTD+624.9%1Y+703.3%
Price updated 7h ago·X counts updated 5d ago
MRMRNA
$MRNAModerna, Inc.
$218.01-7.82%3.1k posts1.2×
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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On X

Top X posts

The complete picture of $MRNA on X — how loud the conversation is right now, how it has trended over the last two weeks, and which way the crowd is leaning.

3,069X posts · last 7 days
Sep 29Oct 11
Chatter Meter
1.2×
QuietNormal · 1×Loud

How loud $MRNA's conversation on X is versus its own normal — 1× is typical, higher means busier. Right now it's about its usual level, louder than 89% of tracked names.

Bullish sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data20 posts analyzed · as of 2026-10-02

The crowd is loudly bullish — Moderna is up ~575% YTD after the mRNA cancer vaccine with Merck crushed its Phase 3 melanoma readout, and bulls are quoting a 38% gain just this month. Institutional accumulation is being framed as evidence big money consulted the immunologists before adding. The one audible contrarian voice calls the stock "extremely overvalued" with sell-side price targets already lifted 2-4x and still below spot.

Read what X is saying about $MRNA

  • Bullish vs bearish call — with the AI summary of the day's posts
  • Divergence flag when the top-engagement posts argue the other side
  • How loud the conversation is versus this ticker's own normal
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AI verdictAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

TickerTalks' own read on what's driving $MRNA — fundamentals, momentum, or an event — and whether it agrees with the X crowd.

Driven by hypeAcceleratingAI verdict · as of 2026-10-03

The move is getting stronger, with heavier trading behind it.

A biotech that just proved its platform works outside of COVID — a six-x move with the fundamentals finally pointing in the right direction.

Moderna is the mRNA platform company that had been priced for post-COVID irrelevance until the Merck-partnered cancer-vaccine Phase 3 melanoma readout hit. Suddenly the question flipped from 'will the platform survive' to 'how big is oncology.'

  • The revenue line has turned on a dime: last quarter revenue grew 264% YoY off a cratered base, which means the launch cadence is finally generating a real top-line story again — even if the company is still burning cash at a -357% operating margin.
  • The market has rerated accordingly: up 537% YTD, 90% of its 52-week range, and 178% above the 200-day, this is a stock where sell-side price targets have been lifted 2-4x and still sit below spot — late-stage trial data overriding every valuation model the Street has.

The Nasdaq-100 inclusion adds a passive-flow tailwind, so this stays trajectory=accelerating as long as the oncology data holds up at follow-on readouts. A negative data point from any adjacent indication, or an unexpected cash-burn widening at the Nov 5 print, is where the move finally cools.

Agrees with X sentimentThe loud bullish read is grounded in a real Phase 3 win and institutional buying. The 'extremely overvalued' voice is also fair — biotechs at these multiples are one bad data point from a 30% drawdown. Both are correct simultaneously, which is what makes it hot-momentum.

What to watch: Nov 5 Q3 earnings — revenue trajectory, cash-burn rate, and any update on next-indication oncology timelines. A missed Merck-partner milestone or widening losses breaks the setup fast.

On the calendar: 2026-11-05 — Q3 earnings

event ahead 30dbiotech catalyst

Read the AI verdict on $MRNA

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • Whether TickerTalks' read agrees with or diverges from the X crowd
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Develops mRNA-based vaccines and therapeutics, known for its COVID-19 vaccine and diversifying into RSV, flu, and oncology.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Biotechnology sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $MRNA.

Biotechnology · Healthcare

No material change from last week — mRNA oncology platform remains the structural driver.

What this means for $MRNA

Partial — Develops mRNA-based vaccines and therapeutics, known for its COVID-19 vaccine and diversifying into RSV, flu, and oncology.

Top industry ETF

$IBBiShares Biotechnology ETF
+17.9%YTD
+31.7%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
-5.9How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
-37.3%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
-153%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
-8.4%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
8.5Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
-36.7%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
-13.9%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.2Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Jul 31, 2026$-1.97$-2.03+3.0%
Q1 2026May 1, 2026$-3.40$-4.45+23.6%
Q4 2025Feb 13, 2026$-2.11$-2.54+16.9%
Q3 2025Nov 6, 2025$-0.51$-1.87+72.7%
Next earningsFri, Nov 6·consensus EPS $-1.09

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$389.0M+263.6%-146%-357%$-3.40$-692.0M
Q4 FY25$678.0M-29.1%33.3%-126%$-2.11$912.0M
Q3 FY25$1.0B-45.2%0.8%-25.6%$-0.51$-880.0M
Q2 FY25$142.0M-35.7%16.2%-639%$-2.13$-922.0M

Forward consensus

5-year forecast · up to 17 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$2.1B$2.0B – $2.2B-$8.32-$10.30 – -$7.8117
FY27$2.4B$2.0B – $3.0B-$4.74-$7.52 – -$2.8916
FY28$3.4B$2.2B – $7.4B-$2.71-$5.34 – $0.6016
FY29$5.6B$4.5B – $7.7B$0.50$0.38 – $0.7514
FY30$7.6B$6.2B – $10.4B$3.42$2.60 – $5.0814

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.1.3×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.89%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.+40.7%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.+181.7%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatHigh float · 372.1M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today5.7% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β0.905-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellSep 15Stephen HogePresident40.3K sh$5.9MSellSep 14Stephen HogePresident40.3K sh$5.8MSellSep 10James M MockCFO34.8K sh$4.7MSellSep 1Klinger Shannon ThymeChief Legal Officer3.5K sh$486KSellAug 5Stephane BancelCEO272.3K sh$15.4MSellJul 15Stephen HogePresident53.3K sh$3.6MSellJun 15Stephen HogePresident53.3K sh$2.7MSellJun 4Klinger Shannon ThymeChief Legal Officer3.5K sh$174KSellMay 21Noubar AfeyanDirector9.3K sh$434KSellMay 15Stephen HogePresident53.3K sh$2.6M
1–10 of 11
+ 67 other (37 exempts · 21 inkinds · 9 awards) in window

See when $MRNA insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
Free, forever. No credit card.

SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

3New insider — initial holdingsOct 53
8-KOfficer or director changeSep 308-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
8-KMaterial agreementSep 18-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement · Item 2.03: Material debt obligation · Item 3.02: Unregistered equity sale · Item 8.01: Other event
3New insider — initial holdingsJul 103
AI summary

A new director of Moderna Inc. (MRNA) filed an initial Form 3 on July 10, 2026, disclosing no beneficially owned securities of Moderna. This filing initiates the director's reporting obligations under Section 16(a) of the Securities Exchange Act.

8-KOfficer or director changeJul 88-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
AI summary

Moderna announced that Michael McDonnell, former Chief Financial Officer of Biogen, has been appointed to the company's Board of Directors. Concurrently, existing director Pablo Legorreta was reassigned to the Nominating and Corporate Governance Committee to optimize committee composition. McDonnell brings deep biopharma finance expertise from his tenure at Biogen. The board addition signals Moderna's continued investment in financial governance as the company navigates the post-COVID transition to its broader respiratory and oncology vaccine pipeline.

3New insider — initial holdingsJun 303
AI summary

Ester Banque Soria, Chief Commercial Officer of Moderna, filed a Form 3 initial beneficial ownership statement as of June 15, 2026. Administrative disclosure.

8-KCharter amendmentMay 118-K — Item 5.03: Charter amendment · Item 5.07: Shareholder vote
AI summary

MRNA held its Annual Meeting of stockholders around 2026-05-11 (8-K Item 5.07). The meeting was adjourned, likely due to insufficient quorum. Routine governance event — monitor for unusually high withhold votes as an activist signal.

+ 8 other (4 13Gs · 2 10-Qs · 2 earnings 8-Ks) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Moderna and Novavax Stocks Slump as Biotech's Rally Takes a Breatherbarrons.com·13h agoWhy is Moderna down 10% on Friday?invezz.com·15h agoNovavax Plunges 12% as Selloff Hits Vaccine Makers; Moderna Tumbles 10%, Pfizer Holds Steady247wallst.com·15h agoDow, Nasdaq Diverge Again as AI Rotation Intensifiesschaeffersresearch.com·16h agoModerna Tumbles 10% as Profit Taking Hits Cancer Vaccine Rally; BioNTech Eases, Pfizer Stays Put247wallst.com·17h ago

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TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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