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NVNVAX

Novavax, Inc.

$NVAX·$1.9B·Biotechnology·Healthcare
$11.26-12.2%YTD+89.6%1Y+32.8%
Price updated 1d ago·X counts updated 6d ago
NVNVAX
$NVAXNovavax, Inc.
$11.26-12.17%887 posts1.2×
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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On X

Top X posts

The complete picture of $NVAX on X — how loud the conversation is right now, how it has trended over the last two weeks, and which way the crowd is leaning.

887X posts · last 7 days
Sep 29Oct 11
Chatter Meter
1.2×
QuietNormal · 1×Loud

How loud $NVAX's conversation on X is versus its own normal — 1× is typical, higher means busier. Right now it's about its usual level, louder than 91% of tracked names.

Bullish sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data6 posts analyzed · as of 2026-10-02

Sentiment on Novavax is bullish on specific catalysts — Sanofi's NUVAXOVID rollout is the near-term driver, with potential milestones of $125M for a COVID-flu combo trial and $75M for other triggers. Matrix-M partner oncology trials add surprise optionality. Monthly cloud reclaim and 30%+ short interest set up the breach-of-$11 squeeze thesis. The pointed dissent is a critic who stays bearish on management decisions until the stock reflects earlier value.

Read what X is saying about $NVAX

  • Bullish vs bearish call — with the AI summary of the day's posts
  • Divergence flag when the top-engagement posts argue the other side
  • How loud the conversation is versus this ticker's own normal
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AI verdictAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

TickerTalks' own read on what's driving $NVAX — fundamentals, momentum, or an event — and whether it agrees with the X crowd.

Hinges on a big eventWinding up for a moveAI verdict · as of 2026-10-02

Trading in a tight range and building pressure — a move looks likely soon, but the direction isn't clear yet.

Novavax is a Sanofi-partnered COVID-and-combinations biotech — the near-term bet is on NUVAXOVID milestones triggering.

Novavax is a biotech whose COVID vaccine (NUVAXOVID) has been commercialized through a Sanofi partnership, with Matrix-M adjuvant also used in collaborations across combinations and oncology trials.

  • The business is in revenue reset: Q1 revenue -76% YoY as the COVID vaccine cycle fades — the P&L is dominated by what Sanofi delivers plus any milestone payments, not direct COVID demand.
  • The near-term catalyst is specific: NUVAXOVID rollout driving $125M + $75M milestone potential, with Matrix-M partners running oncology trials that "have historically triggered sharp speculative volume" on updates.
  • 52-week range position is 76% with volume 53% of average and short interest over 30% — the setup is coiled with a classic squeeze overlay, and bulls are citing the 2024 $4.50-to-$27 analog as the template.

Nov 5 Q3 is the gate — any confirmed milestone trigger plus a visible Matrix-M partnership update extends the move. A milestone slip or no partnership update and the stock gives back the YTD gain, though short interest will cap the downside somewhat.

Agrees with X sentimentThe thread has the right drivers — Sanofi NUVAXOVID rollout as the catalyst, specific $125M + $75M milestone math, 30%+ short interest, Matrix-M oncology-trial speculative-volume history — all substantively grounded, with the 2024 analog as a legitimate reference.

What to watch: Nov 5 Q3 — Sanofi milestone trigger confirmation, Matrix-M partnership updates, cash runway, and any oncology-trial readout. A milestone slip or dilutive raise is the clear invalidator.

On the calendar: 2026-11-05 — Q3 earnings

Read the AI verdict on $NVAX

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • Whether TickerTalks' read agrees with or diverges from the X crowd
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Novavax makes protein-based COVID-19 and influenza vaccines using its recombinant nanoparticle technology platform.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Biotechnology sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $NVAX.

Biotechnology · Healthcare

No material change from last week — mRNA oncology platform remains the structural driver.

What this means for $NVAX

Partial — Novavax makes protein-based COVID-19 and influenza vaccines using its recombinant nanoparticle technology platform.

Top industry ETF

$IBBiShares Biotechnology ETF
+17.9%YTD
+31.7%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
-5.5How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
-36.1%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
-54.9%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
-3.1%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
3.3Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
160%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
77.9%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
-1.6Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Aug 6, 2026$-0.32$-0.38+15.8%
Q1 2026May 6, 2026$-0.06$-0.25+76.0%
Q4 2025Feb 26, 2026$0.11$-0.66+116.7%
Q3 2025Nov 6, 2025$-1.25$-1.08-15.7%
Next earningsThu, Nov 5·consensus EPS $-0.22

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q2 FY26$56.7M-76.3%74.9%-96.8%$-0.32$-74.1M
Q1 FY26$139.5M-79.1%78.0%-11.1%$-0.06$-33.7M
Q4 FY25$147.1M+66.6%82.9%14.3%$0.11$-41.6M
Q3 FY25$70.4M-16.6%69.5%-253%$-1.25$105.8M

Forward consensus

5-year forecast · up to 6 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$376.5M$283.5M – $469.5M-$0.73-$1.54 – $0.766
FY27$277.2M$264.7M – $289.7M-$0.15-$0.78 – $0.916
FY28$283.6M$142.4M – $392.0M$0.25-$0.47 – $1.026
FY29$431.3M$287.1M – $585.7M$1.05$0.60 – $1.554
FY30$376.6M$250.7M – $511.4M$0.55$0.31 – $0.813

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.1.3×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.70%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.+12.4%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.+23.0%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatMid float · 144.6M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today6.8% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β2.445-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

No open-market buys or sells in the last 180 days.

+ 15 other (8 awards · 7 exempts) in window

See when $NVAX insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

8-KShareholder voteJun 238-K — Item 5.07: Shareholder vote
SC 13D/AActivist amendmentMay 15SC 13D/A
+ 11 other (3 13Gs · 2 earnings 8-Ks · 2 10-Qs · 2 proxys) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Novavax shareholder Shah Capital to step back from activist rolereuters.com·1d agoModerna and Novavax Stocks Slump as Biotech's Rally Takes a Breatherbarrons.com·1d agoNovavax Plunges 12% as Selloff Hits Vaccine Makers; Moderna Tumbles 10%, Pfizer Holds Steady247wallst.com·1d agoNovavax (NVAX) Increases Despite Market Slip: Here's What You Need to Knowzacks.com·4d agoVaccine Stocks Rally on Reports of U.S.-led Push for Cancer Vaccineszacks.com·5d ago

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TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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