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SPSPCX

Space Exploration Technologies Corp.

$SPCX·$1.6T·Aerospace & Defense·Industrials
$123.99-5.4%1Y-23.0%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-07-11: 8,103 posts2026-07-12: 8,209 posts2026-07-13: 7,602 posts2026-07-14: 6,198 posts2026-07-15: 8,800 posts2026-07-16: 7,983 posts2026-07-17: 6,849 posts54,286+24%
Price updated 7h ago·X counts updated 6h ago
SPSPCX
$SPCXSpace Exploration Technologies Corp.
$123.99-5.43%54k posts+24%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Top X posts

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $SPCX, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Driven by hypeSelling offAI verdict · as of 2026-07-16

Falling on heavy selling — points lower unless it turns around.

The largest US IPO ever is already 30% off its highs — and public holders bought a rocket they don't get to steer.

SpaceX went public in June at $135, the largest U.S. IPO on record, and the stock is already more than 30% below its post-listing highs. Elon Musk holds 82% of voting power, so public holders are passengers on a company that mostly answers to one person.

  • The pace of capital being pulled in is genuinely unprecedented: a $75B IPO followed six weeks later by a $25B multi-tranche bond raise at 5.35-6.65% coupons — roughly $100B of dilution and debt landing on the tape at once, funding a Starship and Starlink buildout that no rival can match.
  • The valuation is decoupled from the numbers on the page: at a $1.9T market cap the stock trades at 240x trailing sales, Q1 2026 free cash flow was minus $9.1B, and operating margin sits at minus 22% — buyers are paying today for Starlink cash flows that haven't shown up yet.
  • The dual-class structure is a hard constraint: Class B shares carry 10 votes each and keep Musk at 82.4% of voting power immediately post-IPO, so public holders have almost no ability to push back on future dilution, strategic pivots, or capital-allocation decisions.

The August 6 Q2 earnings print is the near-term arbiter: the market needs to see Starlink revenue and margin trajectory bend fast enough to justify the multiple. A miss or a soft guide resolves the descending-triangle pattern the technical crowd is watching into another leg down.

Differs from X sentimentX is genuinely split — bulls cite Morgan Stanley's $300 target, Ark Invest buying 181,847 shares, and a new congressional purchase; bears flag the descending-triangle pattern and the -12% week. My mechanics-first read sides with the bears at this cap: $1.9T on 240x TTM sales with negative $9.1B FCF is a rich price for Starlink cash flow that hasn't shown up yet, and the dual-class structure limits any activist pressure.

What to watch: The August 6 Q2 print. Starlink revenue growth and gross-margin trajectory are the two lines that matter — anything below the acceleration path implied by 240x sales resolves the descending triangle downward.

On the calendar: 2026-08-06 — Q2 earnings

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Bearish sentiment33 posts analyzed · as of 2026-07-17

SpaceX has fallen below its $135 IPO price for the first time and is down roughly 40-50% from the ATH in about a month, printing a fresh all-time low. Bears cite an incoming August 11 unlock schedule, Michael Burry's comment that with luck the stock 'settles in the mid-$200s,' a ~229x sales multiple that keeps it the most expensive US mega-cap even after the drop, and general framing as the tip of an AI/hype cycle unwind. Bulls point to Starship Flight 13 planning to deploy 20 Starlink V3 satellites (a 2-3x step function), positive commentary on compute-deal revenue, and 18,712 BTC on the balance sheet (~$1.2B) as the 8th-largest corporate holder. The dominant tone is skeptical.

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $SPCX

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Designs and launches reusable rockets and spacecraft for payload delivery; operates the Starlink global satellite internet constellation.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Aerospace & Defense sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $SPCX.

Aerospace & Defense · Industrials

No material change from last week — institutions now mark RKLB, LUNR, and RDW against SPCX's $1.

What this means for $SPCX

Direct beneficiary — Designs and launches reusable rockets and spacecraft for payload delivery; operates the Starlink global satellite internet constellation; primary revenue lines track directly to the defense budget expansion and space commercialization.

Top industry ETF

$ITAiShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF
+7.1%YTD
+17.8%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
-130.1How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
-2.4%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
-21.9%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
-0.6%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
240.2Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
-11.6%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
50.3%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.7Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q1 2026May 20, 2026$-1.19$-0.33-260.6%
Next earningsThu, Aug 6·consensus EPS $-0.22

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$4.7B—49.1%-41.4%$-1.27$-9.1B
Q1 FY25$4.1B—51.8%0.7%$-0.18$-3.4B

Forward consensus

3-year forecast · up to 11 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$39.2B$33.3B – $44.9B-$0.59-$1.48 – $0.2811
FY27$75.3B$54.8B – $90.9B$0.62-$0.24 – $2.1811
FY28$89.3B$70.0B – $104.4B$0.49-$0.45 – $1.064

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.—Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.—Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.—Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.—Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatHigh float · 365.9M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today22.7% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β0.005-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.FilingActive offeringA shelf registration (S-3 / S-3ASR / S-1) or prospectus supplement (424B*) was filed in the last 90 days — the company is registered to (or actively) issuing new shares. Dilution risk.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellApr 2Elon MuskCEO11.4K sh$1.2M
+ 5 other (1 conversion · 1 other · 1 gift · 1 return · 1 award) in window

See when $SPCX insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

8-KPress release / Reg FDJun 228-K — Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD · Item 8.01: Other event
AI summary

Texas 001-43344 01-0627671 disclosed: being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed to be incorporated by reference into any filing by Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (the “Company”) under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), or the Exchange Act, regardless of any general incorporation language contained in such filing..

3New insider — initial holdingsJun 183
AI summary

Form 3 filed by BOTHA ROELOF (Other (specify below) 6. Individual or Joint/Group Filing (Check Applicable Line) X Form filed by One Reporting Person Form filed by More than One Reporting Person Table I - Non-Derivative Securities Beneficially Owned 1. Title of Security (Instr. 4) 2. Amount of Securities Beneficially Owned (Instr. 4) 3. Ownership Form: Direct (D) or Indirect (I) (Instr. 5) 4. Nature of Indirect Beneficial Ownership (Instr. 5) Table II - Derivative Securities Beneficially Owned (e.g., puts, calls, warrants, options, convertible securities) 1. Title of Derivative Security (Instr. 4) 2. Date Exercisable and Expiration Date (Month/Day/Year) 3. Title and Amount of Securities Underlying Derivative Security (Instr. 4) 4. Conversion or Exercise Price of Derivative Security 5. Ownership Form: Direct (D) or Indirect (I) (Instr. 5) 6. Nature of Indirect Beneficial Ownership (Instr. 5) Date Exercisable Expiration Date Title Amount or Number of Shares Explanation of Responses: Remarks: Exhibit 24 - Power of Attorney No securities are beneficially owned. /s/ Sheldon Nagesh, as attorney-in-fact 06/18/2026 ** Signature of Reporting Person Date Reminder: Report on a separate line for each class of securities beneficially owned directly or indirectly. * If the form is filed by more than one reporting person, see Instruction 5 (b)(v). ** Intentional misstatements or omissions of facts constitute Federal Criminal Violations See 18 U.S.C. 1001 and 15 U.S.C. 78ff(a). Note: File three copies of this Form, one of which must be manually signed. If space is insufficient, see Instruction 6 for procedure. Persons who respond to the collection of information contained in this form are not required to respond unless the form displays a currently valid OMB Number. * Form 3: SEC 1473 (03-26)) at SPCX on 2026-06-18. This initial statement of beneficial ownership reports the filer's securities holdings as required under Section 16(a). Filing is routine and indicates an insider's initial ownership disclosure following appointment or acquisition of 10%+ stake.

8-KOfficer or director changeJun 178-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change
AI summary

Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SpaceX, ticker SPCX) filed an 8-K (Item 5.02) dated June 16, 2026, reporting a director or officer change. The excerpt provides cover-page only with no names or roles specified. Given SpaceX's profile, any C-suite change would be significant, but the filing is routine in form; no further details are available from the excerpt.

8-KMaterial agreementJun 168-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement · Item 3.02: Unregistered equity sale
AI summary

SPCX filed an 8-K on June 16, 2026 covering a material definitive agreement (Item 1.01) and unregistered sales of equity securities (Item 3.02). Body unavailable — excerpt cuts off before the substantive agreement terms or equity sale details are disclosed.

8-KOfficer or director changeJun 158-K — Item 3.02: Unregistered equity sale · Item 3.03 · Item 5.02: Officer or director change · Item 5.03: Charter amendment · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD · Item 8.01: Other event
AI summary

SPCX filed a comprehensive 8-K on June 15, 2026 covering unregistered equity sales (Item 3.02), material modification of security holder rights (Item 3.03), officer/director changes (Item 5.02), charter/bylaw amendments (Item 5.03), Reg FD disclosure (Item 7.01), and other events (Item 8.01). Body unavailable — excerpt cuts off before specific equity sale terms, personnel changes, and charter amendment details are disclosed.

424B4Prospectus supplement (offering)Jun 12424B4
AI summary

Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SpaceX) priced its initial public offering at $135.00 per share for 555,555,555 Class A common shares, for gross proceeds of approximately $75 billion — the largest U.S. IPO on record by gross proceeds — with listing on Nasdaq under the symbol 'SPCX.' Elon Musk (CEO/CTO/Chairman) holds approximately 82.4% of combined voting power through Class A and Class B shares (10 votes each) immediately post-IPO; underwriters may purchase an additional 83.3 million shares. The dual-class structure ensures public shareholders hold minimal voting control despite the record-setting fundraise.

3New insider — initial holdingsJun 113
AI summary

SpaceX director Luke Nosek filed a Form 3 upon the IPO disclosing direct ownership of 24,987,340 Class A shares plus indirect ownership of 8,000,020 Class A shares through Nosek Capital LLC (of which he is the managing member), for a combined disclosed position of approximately 33 million Class A shares. Routine initial Section 16 filing upon the company's IPO making Nosek a reporting person.

3New insider — initial holdingsJun 113
AI summary

SpaceX director Steve Jurvetson filed a Form 3 as a newly reporting person upon SpaceX's IPO, disclosing no securities of any class beneficially owned as of the event date. Routine initial Section 16 beneficial ownership filing for a newly reporting director.

+ 30 other (7 3s · 5 CORRESPs · 4 UPLOADs · 2 routine 8-Ks) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

SpaceX and Pentagon Discuss Data-Center Dealwsj.com·11h agoSpaceX vs. Caterpillar: Which Stock Is a Better Buy in 2026, the Aerospace Innovator or the Construction Giant?fool.com·13h agoSpaceX vs. AST SpaceMobile: Which Space Stock Will get Your Portfolio Into Orbit in 2026?fool.com·14h agoSpaceX in Talks to Provide Computing Power for Pentagon's AI Pushwsj.com·14h agoDoes Starship's Launch Abort Change the SpaceX Investment Story?zacks.com·14h ago

In themes

Explore the broader themes this ticker is being talked about under.

Space EconomyDefense & Drones

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Voices on X · top 15 · last 7 days

TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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