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TickerTalks›$RDW
RDRDW

Redwire Corp

Trending onWhy it's trendingX chatter spiked vs its recent normBacked by solid revenue growthPrice and volume picking up
$RDW·$2.0B·Aerospace & Defense·Industrials
$8.450.0%YTD+6.7%1Y-55.7%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-07-10: 277 posts2026-07-11: 112 posts2026-07-12: 194 posts2026-07-13: 346 posts2026-07-14: 280 posts2026-07-15: 539 posts2026-07-16: 406 posts2,182+16%
Price updated 8h ago·X counts updated 1d ago
RDRDW
$RDWRedwire Corp
$8.450.00%2.2k posts+16%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Top X posts

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $RDW, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Driven by hypeSelling offAI verdict · as of 2026-07-18

Falling on heavy selling — points lower unless it turns around.

Redwire is the picks-and-shovels space name that just got cheaper — good for the thesis, painful for anyone holding the drawdown.

Redwire is a mid-cap space-infrastructure supplier — sensors, avionics, star trackers, camera systems, robotic servicing — with a second Defense Tech segment shipping into US military UAS programs. The whole space basket has been sold together since the SpaceX IPO reset and RDW has taken more punishment than most.

  • Revenue is actually growing at a real rate for a small-cap: Q1 revenue rose 58% YoY to $97M and each of the last three quarters printed above +50% — the top-line trajectory is not the issue; the unit economics behind it are (gross margin at 9%, operating margin at -77%).
  • The defense-tech backlog just added a concrete line item: PAE Robotic Autonomous Systems delivered a $21.5M follow-on order for the US Marine Corps Stalker UAS fleet (advanced navigation and standard systems) — this is a repeat order into an installed base of hundreds, not a one-off.
  • The balance sheet is being cleaned up quietly: RDW increased its revolving credit facility from $30M to $50M with JPMorgan and simultaneously prepaid $40M of term loan on June 30, reducing outstanding term-loan balance to $50M — a smaller, better-structured debt stack ahead of the space-cycle downturn.
  • The insider signal is dominated by tax-withholding, not open-market sales: most recent Section 16 activity is share deliveries against vesting grants (director-level and officer-level), which is noise — the concerning tape action is the stock sitting 40% below its 50-day and in the bottom 16% of the 52-week range.

What breaks the downtrend is the August 5 Q2 print showing gross-margin expansion off the 9% base plus the defense-tech backlog growing — a step up on either line reopens the multi-bagger space thesis; a repeat of Q1 gross margins with a wider Q3 loss guide sends the stock through $7.50 and the basket keeps trading as one.

Agrees with X sentimentThe X view that RDW is a picks-and-shovels beneficiary is directionally right, and the frustration that the whole basket (ASTS/RKLB/PL/RDW) is trading as one commodity is fair — until margins improve, being 'the picks and shovels' isn't going to earn a separate multiple.

What to watch: The August 5 Q2 print — gross-margin trajectory off the 9% base and any commentary on Stalker-derivative or additional defense-tech follow-on orders. Margin expansion plus defense wins restarts the story; a repeat print sends the stock into the $6s.

On the calendar: 2026-08-05 — Q2 2026 earnings

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Bullish sentiment8 posts analyzed · as of 2026-07-17

Redwire's fresh catalyst is a $21.5M follow-on purchase-order award from PAE RAS to support the US Marine Corps' Stalker UAS fleet upgrade (hundreds already in service), covering advanced navigation and standard systems. Bulls describe the space economy as still being defined and RDW as one of the picks-and-shovels beneficiaries regardless of who wins in the launch business. Chart posters describe a pullback to the green support band after breaking the red resistance band as a very normal move within an extended-then-corrective trend. The most vocal skeptical thread is a holder disclosing being down 60% on their RDW position, hoping for positive momentum for space stocks to return. RDW is being flagged as trading almost identically to ASTS, RKLB and PL - the whole space basket trading as one - which limits idiosyncratic pricing.

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $RDW

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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Makes mission-critical space hardware (solar arrays, antennas, sensors) and digital engineering software for defense and civil space programs.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Aerospace & Defense sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $RDW.

Aerospace & Defense · Industrials

No material change from last week — institutions now mark RKLB, LUNR, and RDW against SPCX's $1.

What this means for $RDW

Neutral — Makes mission-critical space hardware (solar arrays, antennas, sensors) and digital engineering software for defense and civil space programs; the defense budget expansion and space commercialization does not materially affect this business's near-term earnings.

Top industry ETF

$ITAiShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF
+7.1%YTD
+17.8%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
-15.9How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
-19.6%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
-76.6%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
-4.3%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
9.9Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
-29.0%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
9.2%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.2Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q1 2026May 6, 2026$-0.40$-0.16-150.0%
Q4 2025Feb 25, 2026$-0.35$-0.16-118.7%
Q3 2025Nov 5, 2025$-0.21$-0.12-75.0%
Q2 2025Aug 6, 2025$-0.39$-0.11-254.5%
Next earningsWed, Aug 5·consensus EPS $-0.20

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$97.0M+57.9%26.6%-70.9%$-0.40$-12.4M
Q4 FY25$108.8M+56.4%9.6%-75.0%$-0.58$-26.5M
Q3 FY25$103.4M+50.7%16.3%-40.5%$-0.29$-27.8M
Q2 FY25$61.8M-20.9%-30.9%-149%$-1.41$-90.6M

Forward consensus

3-year forecast · up to 7 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$471.1M$467.8M – $474.5M-$0.82-$1.10 – -$0.477
FY27$568.1M$558.6M – $577.5M-$0.50-$0.90 – -$0.326
FY28$664.4M$648.6M – $683.3M-$0.24-$0.25 – -$0.231

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.4×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.16%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.-40.3%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.-16.2%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatMid float · 123.2M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today11.1% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β3.025-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.FilingActive offeringA shelf registration (S-3 / S-3ASR / S-1) or prospectus supplement (424B*) was filed in the last 90 days — the company is registered to (or actively) issuing new shares. Dilution risk.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellJun 11Ae Red Holdings, LlcDirector1.1M sh$23.0MSellMay 18Ae Red Holdings, LlcDirector15.2M sh$209.6MSellApr 22Ae Red Holdings, LlcDirector21.4M sh$231.8MSellApr 21Ae Red Holdings, LlcDirector977.9K sh$10.3MSellApr 20Ae Red Holdings, LlcDirector1.8M sh$18.1MSellApr 17Ae Red Holdings, LlcDirector2.0M sh$21.9MSellApr 16Ae Red Holdings, LlcDirector3.1M sh$33.2MSellApr 15Ae Red Holdings, LlcDirector692.9K sh$6.7MSellApr 14Ae Red Holdings, LlcDirector1.2M sh$11.9MSellApr 13Ae Red Holdings, LlcDirector790.4K sh$7.7M
1–10 of 29
+ 25 other (12 awards · 11 inkinds · 1 inthemoney · 1 conversion) in window

See when $RDW insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

3New insider — initial holdingsJul 143
AI summary

James H. Romaker filed an initial Form 3 on July 14, 2026, reporting initial beneficial ownership of Redwire Corporation (RDW) securities. This filing establishes Romaker's Section 16(a) reporting position as a newly appointed officer or director. Specific securities held were not detailed in the excerpt.

8-KOfficer or director changeJul 148-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change
AI summary

Redwire Corporation (RDW) announced on July 14, 2026, the appointment of John Heston as an independent director to its board of directors and as a member of the Audit Committee. Heston is a retired Ernst & Young partner with 38 years of public accounting experience, including 24 years as a partner. His appointment adds significant financial oversight expertise to Redwire's board as the company continues its growth in the space infrastructure sector.

8-KMaterial agreementJul 18-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement · Item 2.03: Material debt obligation
AI summary

Redwire Corporation (RDW) amended its credit agreement on June 30, 2026, increasing the revolving credit facility from $30 million to $50 million and simultaneously prepaying $40 million of term loans, reducing the outstanding term loan balance to $50 million. JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. acts as administrative and collateral agent. The combined effect is a larger, more flexible revolver paired with reduced fixed debt obligations. This is a positive balance sheet action — improved liquidity headroom and lower term debt, consistent with Redwire's positioning as a growing defense and space tech company.

8-KMaterial agreementJun 98-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement
AI summary

Redwire Corporation established a new at-the-market (ATM) equity offering program on June 9, 2026, with an equity distribution agreement allowing sales of up to $500 million of common stock through eleven agents including Truist Securities, JPMorgan, and BofA Securities. Sales may be made on NYSE or in block trades and privately negotiated transactions; agents earn up to 3% commission. This creates a $500M dilution overhang via ongoing ATM sales for working capital and general corporate purposes.

424B5Prospectus supplement (offering)Jun 9424B5
AI summary

Redwire Corporation filed a prospectus supplement (424B5) registering up to $500 million of common stock for sale under its at-the-market offering program, using the shelf registration (Reg. No. 333-289380). Agent commission is up to 3% of gross proceeds; the last reported sale price was $18.57 per share as of June 8, 2026. This is the prospectus companion to the simultaneously-filed 8-K (Item 1.01) — both together establish the $500M ATM facility now active for ongoing dilutive share sales.

8-KShareholder voteMay 208-K — Item 5.07: Shareholder vote · Item 8.01: Other event
AI summary

Redwire Corporation (RDW) filed an 8-K on May 20, 2026 disclosing annual shareholder meeting vote results (Item 5.07) and an other-event disclosure (Item 8.01). Redwire is a Jacksonville, Florida-based space infrastructure and technology company listed on the NYSE. The additional Item 8.01 alongside the routine annual meeting disclosure may signal a concurrent business announcement; space infrastructure companies with defense customers often have material contract-related news.

SC 13D/AActivist amendmentMay 20SC 13D/A
AI summary

AE Red Holdings, LLC, a Boca Raton, Florida-based entity, filed Amendment No. 21 to its Schedule 13D on May 18, 2026 regarding Redwire Corporation (RDW, CUSIP 75776W103). AE Red Holdings has been a major shareholder and affiliated party of Redwire, the Jacksonville, Florida-based space infrastructure company. This 21st amendment reflects a change in AE Red Holdings' stake or stated intentions with respect to Redwire; given the affiliate relationship, these disclosures track closely with Redwire's corporate governance.

424B5Prospectus supplement (offering)May 6424B5
AI summary

RDW filed a 424B5 prospectus supplement dated 2026-05-06, representing an active capital markets transaction. Priced at $8.69 per share. This represents immediate dilution to existing shareholders.

+ 24 other (8 SC 13D/As · 4 8-Ks · 3 3s · 2 routine 8-Ks) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Here's Why Investors Shouldn't Worry About Redwire's CEO Selling 25,369 Sharesfool.com·2d agoRedwire Receives $21.5 Million Follow-On Order from Portfolio Acquisition Executive Robotic Autonomous Systems (PAE RAS) to Deliver Stalker UAS Advanced Navigation and Standard Systemsbusinesswire.com·3d agoShould You Buy Redwire Stock After It Just Crashed 61%?fool.com·6d agoRDW Falls 28.8% in the Past Month: What Should Investors Do?zacks.com·9d ago3 Forgotten Space Economy Stocks That Could Deliver Colossal Gains Over the Next 10 Yearsfool.com·10d ago

In themes

Explore the broader themes this ticker is being talked about under.

Space EconomyDefense & Drones

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Voices on X · top 12 · last 7 days

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