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TickerTalks›$NOG
NONOG

Northern Oil and Gas, Inc.

Strong FundamentalsStrong FundamentalsRevenue growing 29% YoY at strong marginsStreet coverage with positive forward estimatesQuiet on X (13 mentions/wk)
$NOG·$2.5B·Oil & Gas Exploration & Production·Energy
$23.21-0.3%YTD+8.0%1Y-9.7%
Price updated 3h ago·X counts updated 1d ago
NONOG
$NOGNorthern Oil and Gas, Inc.
$23.21-0.34%13 posts
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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On X

The complete picture of $NOG on X — how loud the conversation is right now, how it has trended over the last two weeks, and which way the crowd is leaning.

13X posts · last 7 days
Sep 11Sep 27
Bullish sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data5 posts analyzed · as of 2026-08-27

Northern Oil & Gas sentiment is confidently bullish by association. Users highlight NOG founder Michael Reger being appointed President of $CJMB's Callan Power subsidiary (leading Callan Power's strategy), and NOG mentioned as a nearly $3B market cap reference for Reger's track record. Bulls also cite CJMB adding key executives (Andy Weigman) who worked at NOG for 9 years. Skepticism is limited to noting a possible NOG pullback on the daily chart; the modal stance is 'NOG founder branching out — validates NOG's playbook'.

Read what X is saying about $NOG

  • Bullish vs bearish call — with the AI summary of the day's posts
  • Divergence flag when the top-engagement posts argue the other side
  • How loud the conversation is versus this ticker's own normal
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AI verdictAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

TickerTalks' own read on what's driving $NOG — fundamentals, momentum, or an event — and whether it agrees with the X crowd.

Proven numbersWinding up for a moveAI verdict · as of 2026-09-27

Trading in a tight range and building pressure — a move looks likely soon, but the direction isn't clear yet.

Northern Oil & Gas is a real non-op oil-and-gas producer with 29% revenue growth — the founder's new gig is validation, not the thesis.

Northern Oil and Gas is a US-listed non-operating oil-and-gas producer with concentrated Bakken and Permian mineral-and-royalty positions. The equity has been drifting through 2026 despite operational execution.

  • Growth is real: revenue grew 29% YoY last quarter to $745M and Q2 hit the same with EPS beating by 11% — a scaled non-op producer running growth-cycle economics with 19% gross margin, 32% operating margin, and 10% ROIC.
  • The valuation is compressed: negative TTM earnings (distorted by mark-to-market on hedges) but 0.99x sales at a -34% FCF yield (distorted by capex-timing) — priced like a mid-cycle non-op operator.
  • The setup framing is real: NOG founder Michael Reger being appointed President of CJMB's Callan Power subsidiary — a real validation of NOG's playbook, though tangential to the equity's direct fundamentals.

The Nov 9 print is the arbiter: any raise on 2027 production guide plus commentary on non-op Bakken and Permian activity restarts the coil; a soft realized-oil-price number or a hint of hedging losses is where the setup fails. The 'NOG founder branching out — validates NOG's playbook' framing is fair but doesn't itself change the equity's near-term trajectory.

Agrees with X sentimentAligned that NOG founder Michael Reger's appointment as President of CJMB's Callan Power subsidiary is fair validation of the NOG playbook — the possible NOG-pullback-on-the-daily is honest technical steel-man; the modal 'branching out validates NOG's playbook' captures the honest positioning framing.

What to watch: Nov 9 earnings — 2027 production guide, non-op Bakken and Permian activity, realized-oil-price commentary, hedging exposure, and any capital-return updates. A production raise plus non-op activity strength restarts the coil; a hedging-loss surprise is the invalidation.

On the calendar: 2026-11-09 — Q3 earnings

Read the AI verdict on $NOG

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • Whether TickerTalks' read agrees with or diverges from the X crowd
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Non-operator oil and gas company acquiring minority working interests in Williston, Permian, and Appalachian Basin wells.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Oil & Gas Exploration & Production sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $NOG.

Oil & Gas Exploration & Production · Energy

No material change from last week — Oil retreats as Macron calls G7 to release strategic reserves, trimming the geopolitical premium added by Houthi Red Sea seizure.

What this means for $NOG

Neutral — Non-operator oil and gas company acquiring minority working interests in Williston, Permian, and Appalachian Basin wells.

Industry benchmark

27-name peer basket
+42.4%YTD
+29.5%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
-4.0How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
10.4%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
32.0%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
-34.0%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
1.0Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
-23.9%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
18.6%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.0Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Aug 6, 2026$1.13$1.02+10.8%
Q1 2026Apr 28, 2026$0.74$0.71+4.2%
Q4 2025Feb 25, 2026$0.83$0.77+7.5%
Q3 2025Nov 6, 2025$1.03$0.87+18.3%
Next earningsMon, Nov 9·consensus EPS $0.99

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q2 FY26$745.2M+28.9%0.0%47.3%$2.24—
Q1 FY26$544.1M-6.2%32.9%28.6%$-5.31$-311.1M
Q4 FY25$450.9M-17.9%21.3%17.5%$-0.70$-539.7M
Q3 FY25$485.9M-5.7%28.7%25.8%$-1.33$70.5M

Forward consensus

5-year forecast · up to 5 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$2.3B$2.3B – $2.3B$3.93$3.50 – $4.334
FY27$2.3B$2.1B – $2.5B$3.86$2.79 – $5.205
FY28$2.4B$2.2B – $2.6B$3.89$3.74 – $4.075
FY29$2.5B$2.3B – $2.8B$4.62$4.06 – $5.172
FY30$2.6B$2.3B – $2.8B$4.78$4.20 – $5.352

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.7×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.44%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.-2.9%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.-3.2%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatMid float · 102.3M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today1.5% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β0.755-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

BuyJun 22Bahram AkradiDirector25.8K sh$500K
+ 6 other (6 awards) in window

See when $NOG insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

8-KMaterial agreementAug 268-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement · Item 2.03: Material debt obligation
AI summary

Northern Oil and Gas issued $500 million in aggregate principal amount of 7.500% Senior Notes due September 1, 2034, pursuant to an indenture entered with Wilmington Trust as trustee on August 26, 2026. Interest is payable semi-annually on March 1 and September 1, commencing March 1, 2027, at 7.500% per annum. Material long-term debt issuance providing capital for NOG's continued non-operated E&P acquisition strategy; $500M adds meaningfully to the company's leverage.

S-3ASRAuto-shelf registrationJun 1S-3ASR
8-KMaterial agreementJun 18-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement · Item 3.02: Unregistered equity sale
8-KShareholder voteMay 268-K — Item 5.07: Shareholder vote
8-KMaterial agreementMay 268-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement · Item 3.02: Unregistered equity sale · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
+ 17 other (5 13Gs · 3 routine 8-Ks · 3 earnings 8-Ks · 2 10-Qs) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Is Northern Oil & Gas Inc (NOG) a Bargain After 4.1% Drop? GF Value Says Undervaluedgurufocus.com·6d ago4 Ultra-High-Yield Energy Stocks Are September Strong Buys (One Yields Over 10%)247wallst.com·8d agoTransportadora De Gas Sa Ord B (NYSE:TGS) versus Northern Oil and Gas (NYSE:NOG) Head to Head Reviewdefenseworld.net·12d agoNorthern Oil And Gas: My Conviction Holds As Unit Economics Strengthen In Q2seekingalpha.com·19d agoNorthern Oil and Gas, Inc. (NYSE:NOG) Given Consensus Rating of “Hold” by Analystsdefenseworld.net·29d ago

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Voices on X · last 7 days

No standout posts about $NOG on X in the last 7 days.

TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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