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MSMSFT

Microsoft Corporation

$MSFT·$3.7T·Software - Infrastructure·Technology
$503.81-0.7%YTD-6.9%1Y+0.4%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-08-22: 374 posts4,445+9%
Price updated 1m ago·X counts updated 10d ago
MSMSFT
$MSFTMicrosoft Corporation
$503.81-0.69%4.4k posts+9%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Top X posts

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $MSFT, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Proven numbersAcceleratingAI verdict · as of 2026-09-01

The move is getting stronger, with heavier trading behind it.

Azure crossed $100B annualized at accelerating growth; the AI-capex thesis is now showing up in the top line, not just the deck.

Microsoft is the enterprise-software franchise plus Azure plus a captive AI distribution channel through OpenAI. The AI-cycle bull case rested on Azure growth actually re-accelerating rather than just holding, and the last two prints have delivered exactly that.

Why the acceleration reads real:

  • Azure just crossed $100B in annualized revenue growing at 43%, and the first operational Vera Rubin NVL72 rack went live — AI-workload demand is showing up as billable consumption, not just RPO backlog, on the fastest-growing engine in the business.
  • The rest of the P&L supports it: consolidated revenue grew 18% YoY to $82.9B at a 68% gross margin and 47% operating margin, with 33% ROE and only 0.14 debt-to-equity — the AI capex is being funded entirely from operations.
  • The multiple is not stretched for what it delivers — 25x trailing earnings for a real double-digit compounder is not the aggressive-growth setup where a single miss triggers a re-rate.
  • Officers are trimming: Judson Althoff sold $4.9M and Takeshi Numoto sold $2.4M in early August — visible but not a cluster, and nothing has come from CEO Nadella or CFO Hood.

The Oct 28 earnings is the next referendum: Azure growth staying above 40% and hard 2027 hyperscaler capex commentary extends the acceleration; a slip below 35% or a hedge on AI-capex ROI is what would invalidate the setup.

Agrees with X sentimentX is emphatically bullish and the Azure $100B / +43% print with the Vera Rubin rack live is exactly what the bull thesis needed to see; the bearish half of the crowd has essentially gone silent here, and the mechanics support that quiet.

What to watch: Oct 28 earnings — Azure growth holding above 40% and any explicit ROI commentary on the $800B-2026 / $1.3T-2027 hyperscaler capex; a slip below 35% or a hedge on AI capex payback is the invalidation.

On the calendar: 2026-10-28 — FQ1 earnings

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Bullish sentiment169 posts analyzed · as of 2026-08-31

Sentiment is emphatically bullish, with Microsoft "just 7% away from ATH's" after a "+30% in 30 days" rip. The catalyst mix is heavy: the first operational Vera Rubin NVL72 rack live, Azure "crossed $100B annually" growing 43%, and hyperscaler capex projected "$800B in 2026 and $1.3 trillion in 2027." Skeptics are mostly regretful "if only I did do it" laments, while options desks stack $5M put sales and "$36M $MSFT 510 Strike Calls."

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $MSFT

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Develops Windows, Office, Azure cloud, and GitHub, with AI Copilot embedded across productivity and developer products.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Software - Infrastructure sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $MSFT.

Software - Infrastructure · Technology

SaaS multiples remain compressed as rate-sensitive valuations weigh on pure-play software; customers are lengthening deal cycles outside of AI-native workloads. AI co-pilot upsell is the only clear near-term catalyst — companies without it are treading water.

What this means for $MSFT

Direct beneficiary — AI-native product or platform captures spend from the same capex cycle driving the industry; Develops Windows, Office, Azure cloud, and GitHub, with AI Copilot embedded across productivity and developer products.

Top industry ETF

$IGViShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF
-4.2%YTD
+2.5%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
24.7How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
21.3%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
46.8%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
2.4%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
9.7Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
33.1%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
68.3%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.1Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Jul 29, 2026$4.74$4.24+11.8%
Q1 2026Apr 29, 2026$4.27$4.06+5.2%
Q4 2025Jan 28, 2026$4.14$3.90+6.2%
Q3 2025Oct 29, 2025$4.13$3.67+12.5%
Next earningsWed, Oct 28·consensus EPS $4.67

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q3 FY26$82.9B+18.3%67.6%46.3%$4.28$15.8B
Q2 FY26$81.3B+16.7%68.0%47.1%$5.18$5.9B
Q1 FY26$77.7B+18.4%69.0%48.9%$3.73$25.7B
Q4 FY25$76.4B+18.1%68.6%44.9%$3.66$25.6B

Forward consensus

6-year forecast · up to 40 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$329.5B$329.0B – $330.3B$17.01$16.90 – $17.0940
FY27$388.8B$376.1B – $396.7B$19.60$18.55 – $20.6736
FY28$464.8B$447.2B – $493.3B$23.25$21.94 – $24.8131
FY29$554.7B$491.4B – $636.2B$27.81$26.61 – $28.6912
FY30$652.3B$615.6B – $703.0B$35.77$33.15 – $39.386
FY31$869.9B$820.9B – $937.5B$44.85$41.57 – $49.385

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.8×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.77%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.+17.1%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.+17.7%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatMega float · 7.4B shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today0.3% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β1.105-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellAug 5Judson AlthoffCEO10.0K sh$4.9MSellAug 4Takeshi NumotoEVP, Chief Marketing Officer4.8K sh$2.4MSellJun 10Takeshi NumotoEVP, Chief Marketing Officer4.5K sh$1.8MSellJun 8Takeshi NumotoEVP, Chief Marketing Officer2.5K sh$1.0MSellJun 1Judson AlthoffCEO15.5K sh$7.1MSellMay 14Amy ColemanEVP, Chief Human Resources Off1.3K sh$519KSellMar 6Kathleen T HoganEVP, Strategy12.3K sh$5.0M
+ 39 other (31 awards · 8 inkinds) in window

See when $MSFT insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

8-KOfficer or director changeJun 58-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change
AI summary

MSFT (MSFT) filed an 8-K under Item 5.02 disclosing a change in its executive leadership or board composition. The filing reports both a departure and an appointment in CTO. Individuals named in the filing include Microsoft Corporation, Other Jurisdiction. Leadership changes at the C-suite and board level are material events requiring 8-K disclosure within four business days, as they can affect company strategy, investor confidence, and operational continuity.

3/ANew insider — initial holdingsMay 263/A
AI summary

Carmine Di Sibio filed an amended Form 3/A as a new Director of Microsoft Corporation (MSFT), amending a prior filing from May 18, 2026, with the triggering event on May 13, 2026. The excerpt does not disclose a specific security holding amount. This is a routine administrative Section 16 amendment correcting or supplementing an initial director ownership disclosure.

3New insider — initial holdingsMay 183
AI summary

Carmine Di Sibio filed a Form 3 (initial beneficial ownership statement) as a newly appointed Director of Microsoft Corporation (MSFT), with an event date of May 13, 2026. Di Sibio reports 0 shares of Microsoft common stock directly owned and no derivative securities. This is a routine administrative filing confirming appointment of a new director at one of the world's largest companies, with no immediate financial impact.

8-KOfficer or director changeMay 148-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change
AI summary

MSFT disclosed a personnel change (8-K Item 5.02, dated 2026-05-14). An executive departure and a new appointment are both reported. Personnel changes are generally administrative; materiality depends on seniority and circumstances.

+ 12 other (3 11-Ks · 2 earnings 8-Ks · 2 PX14A6Gs · 2 13Gs) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Jensen Huang Told Investors in June to 'Buy at a Discount' During Nvidia's Sell-Off. Nearly Three Months Later, Nvidia Is Up 4%, and a Broader AI Basket Gained 8%. Did His Call Pay Off?fool.com·19h agoMicrosoft Outlook and OpenAI's ChatGPT Work are experiencing user outagescnbc.com·23h agoMicrosoft Has Raised Its Dividend Every Year for More Than a Decade. History Provides Clues of How Big This Year's Raise Might Be.fool.com·1d agoWall Street analyst sets Microsoft stock price target for next 12 monthsfinbold.com·1d agoMusk Loses The AI Race247wallst.com·1d ago

In themes

Explore the broader themes this ticker is being talked about under.

Agentic AI & Enterprise SoftwareQuantum ComputingRobotics & Humanoids

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Voices on X · top 15 · last 7 days

TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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