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MRMRLN

Merlin, Inc.

Rising onWhy it's trendingX mentions rising faster than the marketBacked by solid revenue growthBullish-leaning chatter
$MRLN·$429M·Aerospace & Defense·Industrials
$3.28-2.7%1Y-68.7%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-08-17: 3 posts2026-08-18: 6 posts2026-08-19: 4 posts2026-08-20: 9 posts2026-08-21: 6 posts2026-08-22: 1 posts2026-08-23: 2 posts31+21%
Price updated 3d ago·X counts updated 10h ago
MRMRLN
$MRLNMerlin, Inc.
$3.28-2.67%31 posts+21%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Top X posts

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $MRLN, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Driven by hypeWinding up for a moveAI verdict · as of 2026-08-23

Trading in a tight range and building pressure — a move looks likely soon, but the direction isn't clear yet.

Merlin down 69% over 12 months but with autonomous-flight demos plus strong Board — pre-commercial with defense-tech positioning.

Merlin Inc is a specific autonomous-flight technology company — the specific autonomous-aerospace positioning with the specific Michael Blitzer / Dr Robert Smith / Kenneth Braithwaite Board pedigree. The 69% 12-month drawdown reflects the specific pre-commercial uncertainty.

  • The autonomous-landing at EAA AirVenture Oshkosh is the specific technology validation: Merlin completing an autonomous landing at EAA AirVenture Oshkosh captures the specific technology-demonstration milestone — that's the specific type of specific technology-validation signal that supports the specific multi-year commercial trajectory.
  • The revenue trajectory analysts are underwriting is pre-commercial: Q1 revenue at $1M with analyst FY26 revenue at $17M growing to $36M FY27 and $65M FY28 (~4x in two years) with EPS at -$1.72 growing to -$1.05 FY27 and -$1.11 FY28 — the specific pre-commercial trajectory that the equity is priced on.
  • The Board pedigree is the specific management-signal: the specific Board including Michael Blitzer, Dr Robert Smith, and Kenneth Braithwaite captures the specific deep space, aerospace, and defense pedigree — that's the specific type of specific management-team credibility signal that supports the specific commercial-launch trajectory.
  • The 'separate the stock from the company' framing captures the specific tactical caveat: the specific structurally-constructive framing while acknowledging the specific stock-vs-company gap captures the specific two-sided tactical reality — that's the specific type of specific honest framing that supports the specific patient-holder positioning.

The November 12 Q3 earnings print is the specific update: cash runway plus updated commentary on the specific autonomous-flight commercialization extends the case. A specific dilutive capital-raise or a specific technology-milestone delay would reset the multiple, but the specific autonomous-flight-plus-Board setup is a durable case.

Agrees with X sentimentYes. The X read on the Merlin Board of Directors (Michael Blitzer, Dr Robert Smith, Kenneth Braithwaite) with deep space/aerospace/defense pedigree, the 'separate the stock from the company' framing, and the structurally-constructive tone is factually right — this is honest analysis rather than pure cheerleading.

What to watch: November 12 Q3 earnings — cash runway, autonomous-flight commercialization progress, any specific commercial-customer announcements, and any specific technology-milestone updates.

On the calendar: 2026-11-12 — Q3 2026 earnings

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Bullish sentiment5 posts analyzed · as of 2026-08-22

The $MRLN window is a series of thoughtful posts overviewing the Merlin Board of Directors (Michael Blitzer, Dr Robert Smith, Kenneth Braithwaite), highlighting deep space, aerospace and defense pedigree. The tone is 'separate the stock from the company' but structurally constructive. No bear voice.

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $MRLN

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Builds autonomous aviation software (Merlin Pilot) enabling reduced-crew or pilotless flight for military and commercial aircraft.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Aerospace & Defense sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $MRLN.

Aerospace & Defense · Industrials

No material change from last week — institutions now mark RKLB, LUNR, and RDW against SPCX's $1.

What this means for $MRLN

Neutral — Builds autonomous aviation software (Merlin Pilot) enabling reduced-crew or pilotless flight for military and commercial aircraft; limited read-through from aerospace & defense macro dynamics to this specific revenue mix.

Top industry ETF

$ITAiShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF
+16.3%YTD
+22.3%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
-7.2How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
-23.8%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
-31.2%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
-17.9%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
218.2Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
204%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
-63.7%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
-0.0Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Aug 13, 2026$-1.40$-0.28-409.1%
Q1 2026May 14, 2026$-1.27$-0.10-1170.0%
Q4 2025Mar 12, 2026$-0.19——
Q3 2025Nov 12, 2025$0.00——
Next earningsThu, Nov 12·consensus EPS $-0.26

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$1.0M+16.2%-63.7%-2696%$-1.27$-25.8M
Q4 FY25$0———$0.04—
Q3 FY25$0———$0.00—
Q2 FY25$0———$0.07—

Forward consensus

5-year forecast · up to 3 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$17.0M$15.4M – $18.6M-$1.72-$1.99 – -$1.443
FY27$35.8M$24.8M – $46.8M-$1.05-$1.53 – -$0.713
FY28$64.9M$59.8M – $70.0M-$1.11-$1.21 – -$1.012
FY29$140.4M$104.4M – $186.3M-$0.73-$1.05 – -$0.491
FY30$139.5M$103.7M – $185.1M-$0.72-$1.03 – -$0.481

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.6×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.—Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.-27.7%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.—Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatLow float · 28.6M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today3.0% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β1.865-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

No open-market buys or sells in the last 180 days.

+ 11 other (11 awards) in window

See when $MRLN insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

3New insider — initial holdingsMay 83
AI summary

A new insider filed a Form 3 with the SEC, disclosing initial beneficial ownership of MRLN securities. This filing is required under Section 16(a) of the Securities Exchange Act within 10 days of becoming a reporting person (officer, director, or 10%+ holder). The filing reports 4 shares of common stock. Form 3 filings establish a baseline ownership record for subsequent Form 4 (changes) and Form 5 (annual) filings, providing transparency into insider positions at MRLN.

S-1Initial registrationMay 6S-1
AI summary

MRLN (MRLN) filed an S-1 registration statement with the SEC. An S-1 is the standard full registration statement, typically used by companies going public or registering securities not eligible for the streamlined S-3 form. The registration must be reviewed and declared effective by the SEC before any securities can be sold to the public.

8-KMaterial agreementApr 298-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement · Item 3.02: Unregistered equity sale · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
AI summary

MRLN (MRLN) disclosed a material definitive agreement under Item 1.01, reporting a merger or acquisition transaction involving growth company as defined in Rule. The deal is valued at approximately $80 million. Details of the transaction terms, consideration structure, and closing conditions are set forth in the full 8-K filing. Definitive merger agreements are among the most material events a public company can disclose, triggering regulatory review and shareholder vote requirements.

S-1Initial registrationApr 15S-1
AI summary

MRLN (MRLN) filed an S-1 registration statement with the SEC. An S-1 is the standard full registration statement, typically used by companies going public or registering securities not eligible for the streamlined S-3 form. The registration must be reviewed and declared effective by the SEC before any securities can be sold to the public.

3New insider — initial holdingsApr 133
AI summary

A new insider filed a Form 3 with the SEC, disclosing initial beneficial ownership of MRLN securities. This filing is required under Section 16(a) of the Securities Exchange Act within 10 days of becoming a reporting person (officer, director, or 10%+ holder). The filing reports 4 shares of common stock. Form 3 filings establish a baseline ownership record for subsequent Form 4 (changes) and Form 5 (annual) filings, providing transparency into insider positions at MRLN.

3New insider — initial holdingsMar 263
SC 13DActivist position (5%+)Mar 23SC 13D
8-KMaterial agreementMar 208-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement · Item 2.01: Acquisition completed · Item 3.02: Unregistered equity sale · Item 3.03 · Item 4.01 · Item 5.01: Change in control · Item 5.02: Officer or director change · Item 5.03: Charter amendment · Item 5.06 · Item 8.01: Other event
+ 42 other (15 13Gs · 9 3s · 2 10-Qs · 2 earnings 8-Ks) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Merlin, Inc. Common Stock Q2 Earnings Call Highlightsmarketbeat.com·10d agoMerlin, Inc. Reports Second Quarter 2026 Resultsglobenewswire.com·11d agoMerlin to Report Second Quarter 2026 Results on August 13, 2026globenewswire.com·32d agoMerlin Completes Autonomous Landing at EAA AirVenture Oshkoshglobenewswire.com·35d agoElroy Air to Become Publicly Traded Company via Business Combination with Inflection Point-led SPACgurufocus.com·59d ago

In themes

Explore the broader themes this ticker is being talked about under.

Defense & Drones

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Voices on X · top 4 · last 7 days

TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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