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MCMCHP

Microchip Technology Incorporated

Strong FundamentalsStrong FundamentalsRevenue growing 35% YoY at strong marginsStreet coverage with positive forward estimatesConsistent chatter on X (1.3K/wk), no spike
$MCHP·$48B·Semiconductors·Technology
$81.68-5.3%YTD+25.2%1Y+9.7%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-07-09: 135 posts2026-07-10: 198 posts2026-07-11: 70 posts2026-07-12: 143 posts2026-07-13: 283 posts2026-07-14: 184 posts2026-07-15: 235 posts1,261+15%
Price updated 14h ago·X counts updated 2d ago
MCMCHP
$MCHPMicrochip Technology Incorporated
$81.68-5.31%1.3k posts+15%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $MCHP, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Proven numbersWinding up for a moveAI verdict · as of 2026-07-16

Trading in a tight range and building pressure — a move looks likely soon, but the direction isn't clear yet.

MCU pricing hikes across the group are a real tailwind — earnings on August 6 has to affirm the industrial recovery.

Microchip Technology designs microcontrollers, analog chips, and power-management ICs for industrial + automotive. The 2026 tape is +32% YTD as the industrial-analog cycle recovers with MCU pricing hikes leading (STMicro first, MCHP following).

  • The core business is showing the cycle recovery: Q1 2026 revenue grew 35% YoY to $1.3B, gross margin held at 61%, operating margin was 16% — real acceleration off the industrial trough, and the MCU pricing hikes STMicro led starting June 28 give MCHP a specific pricing-power tailwind.
  • Valuation is loaded on the mean-reversion setup: 237x TTM P/E reflects the earnings collapse and mean-reversion, and on FY26 EPS growth the forward multiple compresses — the bull case is a beat-and-raise pattern as industrial + MCU pricing normalize into 2027.
  • The bear thread has a specific counter: MCHP 'claims high growth from data centers but they account for 7% of revenue' — the AI-datacenter narrative doesn't yet drive the P&L, so the setup requires the industrial/automotive recovery to be the actual driver, not the AI narrative.

The August 6 Q4 FY26 earnings are the near-term arbiter — Q4 revenue trajectory vs the 35% Q1 pace, gross margin expansion (industrial recovery lever), and any FY27 guide movement extend the coiling setup. A gross margin miss or industrial-order softening confirms the bear framing and drops the tape below $80.

Agrees with X sentimentX is mixed but leans bullish, cites STMicro's MCU price hikes from June 28 as bullish for the broader MCU cohort including MCHP, and the flag setup against monthly resistance. Bears note MCHP's data-center revenue is only 7% and 'looks weak.' Mechanics support the coiling read: Q1 revenue +35% YoY at 61% gross margin — the industrial recovery is showing up, but 237x TTM P/E requires the August 6 print to affirm.

What to watch: The August 6 Q4 FY26 earnings. Watch Q4 revenue trajectory vs 35% Q1 pace, gross margin expansion, and FY27 guide movement. Gross margin miss or industrial-order softening confirms bear framing sub-$80; steady recovery + guide extends toward $95.

On the calendar: 2026-08-06 — Q4 FY26 earnings

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Mixed sentiment⚠6 posts analyzed · as of 2026-06-29 · top-engagement diverged

Microchip Technology designs and manufactures microcontrollers, analog chips, power management. STMicro will begin new MCU price hikes from June 28 - bullish for the broader MCU cohort including MCHP. The flag is set up against monthly resistance - 'range breakout here would be bullish.' Bears note MCHP 'claims high growth from data centers but they account for 7% of revenue' - 'looks weak.' Posters frame MCHP alongside PENG, RMBS, MXL as the upside watches. Mixed: MCU pricing bulls vs data-center-rev-concentration bears.

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $MCHP

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Large microcontroller and mixed-signal IC maker serving embedded control applications across automotive, industrial, and IoT.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Semiconductors sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $MCHP.

Semiconductors · Technology

No material change from last week — structural AI capex engine unchanged: hyperscaler Blackwell allocation stays tight through 2H26 and HBM3e pricing holds as LLM context-window expansion drives 5-8x per-server memory demand uplift.

What this means for $MCHP

Direct beneficiary — Large microcontroller and mixed-signal IC maker serving embedded control applications across automotive, industrial, and IoT; core operations sit in the path of the AI capex and HBM/compute demand cycle.

Top industry ETF

$SMHVanEck Semiconductor ETF
+54.2%YTD
+96.7%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
236.6How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
3.1%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
10.4%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
1.8%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
10.2Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
3.0%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
57.7%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.9Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q1 2026May 7, 2026$0.57$0.51+12.9%
Q4 2025Feb 5, 2026$0.44$0.43+2.7%
Q3 2025Nov 6, 2025$0.35$0.33+5.9%
Q2 2025Aug 7, 2025$0.27$0.24+13.0%
Next earningsThu, Aug 6·consensus EPS $0.69

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q4 FY26$1.3B+35.1%61.0%16.1%$0.21$242.8M
Q3 FY26$1.2B+15.6%59.6%12.8%$0.06$318.9M
Q2 FY26$1.1B-2.0%55.9%8.3%$0.08$51.6M
Q1 FY26$1.1B-13.4%53.6%3.0%$-0.09$257.7M

Forward consensus

4-year forecast · up to 19 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$4.7B$4.5B – $4.7B$1.57$1.55 – $1.6319
FY27$6.2B$5.9B – $6.7B$3.15$2.91 – $3.4417
FY28$7.1B$6.3B – $9.1B$4.11$3.61 – $4.8316
FY29$7.7B$7.7B – $7.7B$4.47$3.92 – $5.027

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.9×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.58%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.-12.2%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.+9.4%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatHigh float · 531.9M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today2.2% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β1.735-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellJun 4Richard J SimoncicCOO5.0K sh$488KSellMay 28Matthew W ChapmanDirector3.0K sh$293KSellMay 22Richard J SimoncicCOO5.0K sh$467KSellMay 22Bjornholt James EricCFO3.7K sh$333KSellMay 15Matthew W ChapmanDirector10.0K sh$955KSellMay 15Richard J SimoncicCOO83 sh$8K
+ 13 other (5 awards · 4 exempts · 4 inkinds) in window

See when $MCHP insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

3New insider — initial holdingsJun 103
AI summary

Mitchell R. Little, a Director of Microchip Technology Inc., filed a Form 3 on June 1, 2026, reporting initial beneficial ownership. He directly owns 1,086 shares of common stock and 472 RSUs (specific vesting terms in footnotes). No 10% holder status. Routine initial insider ownership disclosure upon becoming a reporting director — administrative, no market impact.

8-KOfficer or director changeJun 18-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change
AI summary

Microchip Technology appointed former SVP Mitch Little (founder of CUSP Advisory Group and author of two books on client value) to the Board effective June 1, 2026; not assigned to any committee. Routine board addition; no financial impact.

8-KMaterial agreementFeb 118-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement · Item 2.03: Material debt obligation · Item 3.02: Unregistered equity sale · Item 8.01: Other event
+ 14 other (6 13Gs · 2 proxys · 2 earnings 8-Ks · 1 ARS) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

South Korea searches Chinese chipmaker Montage Technology's office in competition probereuters.com·15h agoWhy Microchip Tech (MCHP) Could Beat Earnings Estimates Againzacks.com·22h agoMicrochip Jumps 35% YTD: Is There More Room for the Stock to Rise?zacks.com·1d agoThese 2 Computer and Technology Stocks Could Beat Earnings: Why They Should Be on Your Radarzacks.com·1d agoPlug-and-Play 90W PoE Solution Streamlines Industrial IoT Deploymentsglobenewswire.com·1d ago

In themes

Explore the broader themes this ticker is being talked about under.

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Voices on X · last 7 days

No standout posts about $MCHP on X in the last 7 days.

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