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TickerTalks›$LUNR
LULUNR

Intuitive Machines, Inc.

Rising onTrending downwardX chatter spiked vs its recent normBacked by solid revenue growthPrice and volume picking up
$LUNR·$2.2B·Aerospace & Defense·Industrials
$13.52+0.6%YTD-19.4%1Y+10.4%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-07-10: 221 posts2026-07-11: 90 posts2026-07-12: 134 posts2026-07-13: 315 posts2026-07-14: 306 posts2026-07-15: 421 posts2026-07-16: 356 posts1,861+22%
Price updated 7h ago·X counts updated 1d ago
LULUNR
$LUNRIntuitive Machines, Inc.
$13.52+0.60%1.9k posts+22%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Top X posts

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $LUNR, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Broken storySelling offAI verdict · as of 2026-07-17

Falling on heavy selling — points lower unless it turns around.

Space stock in the middle of a six-week downtrend with the largest holder actively unloading each Monday.

Intuitive Machines builds and flies lunar landers and orbital services under NASA's CLPS (Commercial Lunar Payload Services) program. It's one of the very few pure-play publicly listed 'go to the Moon' companies, and after IM-1 and IM-2 the market has become a lot more skeptical about the commercial pace.

Why the tape looks the way it does:

  • The top line is genuinely growing but very lumpy: Q1 revenue jumped 199% YoY to $187M on the back of milestone recognition, but the four-quarter total is still small — this is a story stock more than a fundamentals stock, and consensus FY27 revenue is $946M against a market cap of $2.6B.
  • The insider signal is unambiguous and repeating: co-founder Kamal Ghaffarian sold $2.9M on July 1 and another $1.7M on July 15 following exercises, with officer Timothy Crain adding $3.3M in June — a pattern of consecutive filings from the largest holder is not routine housekeeping.
  • The tape is confirming: shares sit at only 15% of the 52-week range and 29% below the 200-day moving average, having fallen 65% since May with six consecutive down weeks — the technicals are describing capitulation, not a base.
  • The overhang is structural: an S-3ASR shelf plus a pending $500M-scale material definitive agreement announced in June means fresh dilution is a real risk on top of the insider sales, and the Russell removal has taken passive support out.

The forward view: the way this stops being broken is a signed multi-mission NASA contract at scale (not the $17M Mars-mobility award) or a demonstration IM-3 landing that meaningfully outperforms IM-1/IM-2. The way it stays broken is another Ghaffarian sale in the following week or a soft August 6 print with a widening cash-burn line. Bear-camp downside targets in the $7-11 range are technically credible given the pattern; a bounce needs a real catalyst, not just oversold conditions.

Agrees with X sentimentBoth sides of the X debate are real — the 200MA magnet argument and the six-week-downtrend fatigue coexist. Our take leans with the bears on the insider selling pattern being more informative than the technical 'bounce zone' argument, especially with the shelf overhang.

What to watch: August 6 Q2 earnings and any additional Ghaffarian Form 4 filings; a signed multi-mission NASA award or a Ghaffarian buy (not sale) is what would actually reverse the trajectory, absent which the $7-11 target range is credible.

On the calendar: 2026-08-06 — Q2 2026 earnings

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Mixed sentiment30 posts analyzed · as of 2026-07-17

Intuitive Machines is being framed as an oversold space name after a roughly 65-70% drop from May with seven consecutive red weeks. Stifel reiterates Hold at $32 and flags a likely unannounced $240M+ order from a customer's new contract as a near-term catalyst, and posters call the current level 'Smart Money pricing' with the prior touch preceding a 300% rally. Bulls point to a rare 3x usual-volume up day rejecting the recent low and to institutional-load structure similar to prior bottoms. Bears counter that six-week consecutive down candles rarely just reverse without a full flush to $11-14, that a large-holder Form 4 filing could still drag the stock 30-40% lower, and that all sector proxies (RKLB, ASTS, PL) are still consolidating.

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $LUNR

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Provides lunar landers and in-space services under NASA's CLPS program, plus orbital services and lunar data infrastructure.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Aerospace & Defense sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $LUNR.

Aerospace & Defense · Industrials

No material change from last week — institutions now mark RKLB, LUNR, and RDW against SPCX's $1.

What this means for $LUNR

Neutral — Provides lunar landers and in-space services under NASA's CLPS program, plus orbital services and lunar data infrastructure; the defense budget expansion and space commercialization does not materially affect this business's near-term earnings.

Top industry ETF

$ITAiShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF
+7.1%YTD
+17.8%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
-35.3How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
-8.7%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
-34.8%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
-2.9%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
14.0Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
26.6%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
25.7%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
-1.3Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q1 2026May 14, 2026$-0.25$-0.04-485.1%
Q4 2025Mar 19, 2026$-0.04$-0.040.0%
Q3 2025Nov 4, 2025$-0.06$-0.04-50.0%
Q2 2025Aug 7, 2025$-0.11$-0.06-83.3%
Next earningsThu, Aug 6·consensus EPS $-0.05

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$186.7M+198.7%39.0%-21.0%$-0.25$-64.6M
Q4 FY25$44.8M-18.6%30.2%-73.9%$-0.34$-23.0M
Q3 FY25$52.4M-10.3%21.7%-29.4%$-0.06$-19.0M
Q2 FY25$50.3M+21.5%-23.5%-56.9%$-0.24$-27.3M

Forward consensus

5-year forecast · up to 6 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$946.9M$924.9M – $968.1M-$0.32-$0.42 – -$0.106
FY27$1.2B$1.1B – $1.3B$0.05-$0.91 – $0.846
FY28$1.4B$1.4B – $1.4B$0.33-$0.10 – $0.752
FY29$1.7B$1.6B – $1.9B$0.72$0.65 – $0.831
FY30$2.0B$1.9B – $2.3B$1.36$1.22 – $1.561

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.7×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.15%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.-49.5%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.-29.1%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatMid float · 129.3M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today6.8% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β1.785-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.FilingActive offeringA shelf registration (S-3 / S-3ASR / S-1) or prospectus supplement (424B*) was filed in the last 90 days — the company is registered to (or actively) issuing new shares. Dilution risk.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellJul 13Ghaffarian Kamal SeyedDirector111.0K sh$1.7MSellJun 29Ghaffarian Kamal SeyedDirector141.9K sh$2.9MSellJun 18Crain Timothy Price IiCTO150.0K sh$3.3MSellJun 15Ghaffarian Kamal SeyedDirector141.9K sh$3.7MSellJun 8Liquori William John JrDirector18.3K sh$547KSellJun 1Ghaffarian Kamal SeyedDirector141.9K sh$5.5MSellMay 18Ghaffarian Kamal SeyedDirector141.9K sh$4.9MSellMay 4Ghaffarian Kamal SeyedDirector141.9K sh$3.6MSellApr 20Ghaffarian Kamal SeyedDirector85.1K sh$2.4MSellApr 15Jones Anna ChiaraSVP, CLO & Corporate Secretary4.9K sh$116K
1–10 of 21
+ 35 other (12 awards · 11 returns · 11 exempts · 1 other) in window

See when $LUNR insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

SC 13D/AActivist amendmentJul 7SC 13D/A
AI summary

Kamal Ghaffarian, co-founder of Intuitive Machines, filed Amendment No. 12 to his Schedule 13D disclosing that he continues to beneficially own approximately 19.7% of Intuitive Machines (approximately 38.4 million shares). The amendment reflects routine updates to his ownership position, likely due to changes in total share count or minor transactions. As the company's largest individual insider shareholder and a key figure in its lunar lander and space infrastructure business, Ghaffarian's continued significant ownership is closely monitored by investors tracking insider alignment.

SC 13D/AActivist amendmentJul 1SC 13D/A
AI summary

Seyed Kamal Ghaffarian and Ghaffarian Enterprises, LLC filed an amended Schedule 13D for Intuitive Machines (LUNR), disclosing a group holding approximately 38.4M shares (19.7% individually plus 18.7% via Ghaffarian Enterprises). Ghaffarian is LUNR's founder; update to a founder position disclosure with no change in stated intent.

8-KShareholder voteJun 88-K — Item 5.07: Shareholder vote
AI summary

LUNR (LUNR) disclosed the results of its annual meeting of shareholders in an 8-K filing under Item 5.07. Shareholders voted on ratification of the independent auditor. All management-sponsored proposals were approved by majority shareholder vote. Annual meeting results are a routine disclosure that confirms shareholder ratification of the board's composition and compensation practices.

8-KMaterial agreementJun 38-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement
AI summary

LUNR (LUNR) disclosed a material definitive agreement under Item 1.01, reporting a merger or acquisition transaction involving growth company as defined in Rule. The deal is valued at approximately $500.0 million. Details of the transaction terms, consideration structure, and closing conditions are set forth in the full 8-K filing. Definitive merger agreements are among the most material events a public company can disclose, triggering regulatory review and shareholder vote requirements.

424B5Prospectus supplement (offering)Jun 3424B5
AI summary

LUNR (LUNR) filed a 424B5 prospectus supplement related to an at-the-market (ATM) equity offering program. The program allows the company to sell up to $500,000,000 of common shares over time through a sales agent into the market at prevailing prices. ATM programs provide flexible, dilution-minimized capital access without a traditional underwritten deal, typically used for growth capital or balance sheet management.

S-3ASRAuto-shelf registrationJun 3S-3ASR
AI summary

LUNR (LUNR) filed an automatic shelf registration statement (S-3ASR) with the SEC. The registration covers the potential offering of up to $0 in common stock. As an S-3ASR (automatic shelf), this registration is immediately effective upon filing — a privilege reserved for well-known seasoned issuers (WKSIs) with large public floats. The shelf registration does not commit the company to any specific offering but provides flexible capital markets access for future transactions.

S-3ASRAuto-shelf registrationApr 1S-3ASR
AI summary

LUNR filed a S-3ASR (automatic shelf) shelf registration statement dated 2026-04-01. This is primarily a resale shelf for existing stockholders — not new share issuance — limiting direct dilution to public investors. No immediate capital raise is triggered; watch for prospectus supplements disclosing actual transactions.

8-KMaterial agreementFeb 278-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement
+ 21 other (10 13Gs · 3 earnings 8-Ks · 2 proxys · 2 8-Ks) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

3 Space Stocks That Could Outshine SpaceX After Its IPOmarketbeat.com·4d agoThese 2 Space Stocks Are Down 24% and 41%: Which Is the Better Buy Today?fool.com·4d agoHow Is Intuitive Machines Strengthening Its Lunar Mission Operations?zacks.com·4d agoIntuitive Machines Stock Extends Slide Below 200-Day Moving Average: What's Driving the Move?benzinga.com·8d ago3 Space Economy Stocks to Buy in July247wallst.com·8d ago

In themes

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Space Economy

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