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GEGEG

Great Elm Group, Inc.

$GEG·$67M·Asset Management·Financial Services
$2.15-8.9%YTD-17.0%1Y0.0%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-07-28: 0 posts2026-07-29: 2 posts2026-07-30: 0 posts2026-07-31: 0 posts2026-08-01: 0 posts2026-08-02: 0 posts2026-08-03: 0 posts20%
Price updated 4h ago·X counts updated 1d ago
GEGEG
$GEGGreat Elm Group, Inc.
$2.15-8.90%2 posts0%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $GEG, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Proven numbersWinding up for a moveAI verdict · as of 2026-08-04

Trading in a tight range and building pressure — a move looks likely soon, but the direction isn't clear yet.

Great Elm Group up 10% T12M with Northern Right 16.7% ownership — micro-cap asset manager coiling into Sep 1 earnings.

Great Elm Group is a small-cap asset manager (specialty finance, real estate, alternative investments) with Northern Right Capital as major holder at 16.7% ownership. Sep 1 earnings tests the compounder against the -16% YTD tape and coiled setup.

  • The Northern Right Capital 16.7% ownership is the story-defining structure: Northern Right filed Amendment 15 to SC 13D reporting 5.43M shares including issuable securities — real strategic-holder anchor, and activist-adjacent concentration typically drives strategic decisions.
  • Q3 was tiny: revenue grew 6.5% YoY to $3.4M with 91% GM but -116% OM and -$0.45 EPS — real limited-revenue operational base, and the deeply negative OM reflects the asset-management platform scaling costs.
  • The July 10 Northern Right J-Other purchase is real conviction: bought 15,774 shares at $2.18 (~$34K) — real activist-adjacent accumulation at a discount to $2.36 current, meaningful for a micro-cap.
  • The MKL vs GEG head-to-head framing is worth naming as sector-context: Markel Group vs Great Elm Group comparison per July 30 — real sell-side positioning, though the fundamentals gap is large.

Sep 1 is the tension breaker. Q4 fiscal with Northern Right strategic-direction plus revenue-scaling and any capital-allocation commentary restarts the recovery toward $4; a Q4 miss or a soft H2 commentary and the setup pauses with $1.50 as support with 33% of 52w range as the pivot.

What to watch: Sep 1 Q4 fiscal print: watch for Northern Right strategic-direction commentary, revenue-scaling, capital-allocation commentary, and any new-fund launches — the signals that break the coil.

On the calendar: 2026-09-01 — Q4 (fiscal) earnings

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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Operates a durable medical equipment business (PAP, ventilators, oxygen) alongside an investment management division.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Asset Management sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $GEG.

Asset Management · Financial Services

No material change from last week — AI infrastructure (data centers, power, logistics) and Bitcoin treasury strategies, both of which require patient institutional capital that private market..

What this means for $GEG

Neutral — Operates a durable medical equipment business (PAP, ventilators, oxygen) alongside an investment management division; limited read-through from asset management macro dynamics to this specific revenue mix.

Top industry ETF

$IAIiShares U.S. Broker-Dealers & Securities Exchanges ETF
+5.0%YTD
+8.0%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
-3.7How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
-12.8%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
-58.7%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
13.2%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
3.8Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
-38.3%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
3.4%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
1.6Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q1 2026May 6, 2026$-0.45——
Q4 2025Feb 4, 2026$-0.50——
Q3 2025Nov 12, 2025$-0.24——
Q2 2025Sep 2, 2025$0.02——
Next earningsTue, Sep 1

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q3 FY26$3.4M+6.5%90.8%-116%$-0.45$5.8M
Q2 FY26$3.0M-14.1%-63.9%-141%$-0.50$-1.9M
Q1 FY26$10.8M+170.2%-11.1%-34.5%$-0.24$3.8M
Q4 FY25$5.6M-37.1%14.1%-26.3%$0.51$3.7M

Forward consensus

2-year forecast · up to 1 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$5.0M$5.0M – $5.0M-$3.16-$3.16 – -$3.161
FY27$23.8M$23.8M – $23.8M-$1.20-$1.20 – -$1.201

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.1.9×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.20%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.-3.6%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.-4.4%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatLow float · 21.2M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today0.0% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β0.575-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

No open-market buys or sells in the last 180 days.

+ 3 other (1 other · 1 gift · 1 award) in window

See when $GEG insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

SC 13D/AActivist amendmentJul 14SC 13D/A
AI summary

Great Elm Group (GEG) — SC 13D/A (Amendment 15) by Northern Right Capital Management reporting 5,425,180 shares, approximately 16.7% of shares outstanding, including shares issuable on conversion of a PIK Note held by Northern Right. Northern Right is an activist investor maintaining a significant stake. Material — activist holder's continued large position with PIK note conversion rights warrants attention.

SC 13D/AActivist amendmentMay 8SC 13D/A
AI summary

Northern Right Capital Management filed Amendment No. 14 on a Schedule 13D for Great Elm Group (GEG), disclosing total beneficial ownership of 5,396,350 shares (approximately 16.6% of the class), comprising 3,116,872 shares with sole dispositive power and 2,279,478 with shared dispositive power. The position also includes PIK Notes convertible into a maximum of approximately 2.2 million additional shares. Northern Right is a significant activist investor in GEG.

+ 2 other (1 10-Q · 1 earnings 8-K) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Markel Group (NYSE:MKL) versus Great Elm Group (NASDAQ:GEG) Head to Head Surveydefenseworld.net·6d agoGreat Elm Group, Inc. (GEG) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcriptseekingalpha.com·88d agoGreat Elm Group Reports Fiscal 2026 Third Quarter Financial Resultsglobenewswire.com·90d agoGreat Elm Group, Inc. Schedules Fiscal 2026 Third Quarter Conference Call and Webcastglobenewswire.com·92d agoGreat Elm Group, Inc. Schedules Fiscal 2026 Third Quarter Conference Call and Webcastglobenewswire.com·92d ago

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Voices on X · last 7 days

No standout posts about $GEG on X in the last 7 days.

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