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OWOWL

Blue Owl Capital Inc.

$OWL·$15B·Asset Management·Financial Services
$9.27-2.7%YTD-36.7%1Y-54.2%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-07-13: 153 posts2026-07-14: 132 posts2026-07-15: 286 posts2026-07-16: 246 posts2026-07-17: 176 posts2026-07-18: 2 posts2026-07-19: 14 posts1,015+19%
Price updated 9m ago·X counts updated 19h ago
OWOWL
$OWLBlue Owl Capital Inc.
$9.27-2.68%1.0k posts+19%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Top X posts

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $OWL, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Proven numbersWinding up for a moveAI verdict · as of 2026-07-20

Trading in a tight range and building pressure — a move looks likely soon, but the direction isn't clear yet.

Blue Owl is 37% off YTD as private-equity names bounce — 8.4% FCF yield into July 30 print.

Blue Owl Capital is a diversified alternative-asset manager — private credit, GP stakes, and real estate — one of the pure-play alt-manager names that has become the group beneficiary of the private-credit-cycle re-rating. The stock is down 37% YTD but rallying with the private-equity/alt-manager basket this week (ARES, CG, KKR, BX, APO all showing the same pattern).

  • The business is running steadily: revenue grew 10.3% YoY to $754M last quarter at a 14% operating margin — the fee-based structure means the top line is more stable than the underlying investment marks, and the alt-manager multiple compresses less on drawdowns than pure-equity holders.
  • The private-equity basket rotation is real: after underperforming in H1, alt-managers have bounced sharply this week as investors rotated into areas that did poorly earlier — the ~$9.29 level the crowd flagged as key has now been broken to the upside.
  • The valuation is reasonable: 77x TTM earnings looks stretched but is misleading given the fee-based earnings power vs. the P&L noise from investment marks — 5.2x sales and 8.4% FCF yield are the cleaner metrics for the alt-manager comparison.
  • Position at 12% of the 52-week range, -1% vs. the 50-day — this is a name that has been beaten down and is only just starting to lift with the basket, so the coil hasn't fully released yet.

July 30 earnings has to show: AUM growth trajectory (needs to hold above 10% YoY), fee-earning AUM as % of total (needs to keep expanding), and any commentary on private-credit market conditions. A clean beat with a strong AUM number lifts the whole alt-manager basket toward $11-12. A soft print or any private-credit-cycle warning sends OWL back to $8.50 where the coil resets. The setup is asymmetric — the alt-manager basket rotation is a real macro driver, and OWL is a laggard in that group.

Agrees with X sentimentX's bullish framing (private equity bounce with OWL alongside ARES/CG/KKR/BX/APO, $9.29 as key level, community broadly long the private-equity rotation) captures the setup correctly — this is a group trade where OWL is a laggard catching up. The 'traders eye OWL crossing $9.29 as key' is the specific technical trigger that has now cleared.

What to watch: July 30 Q2 earnings — AUM growth (needs >10% YoY), fee-earning AUM as % of total, and private-credit market condition color. Also watch the whole alt-manager basket (ARES, KKR, BX, APO) — OWL is trading with the group. A clean beat lifts the whole basket toward $11-12; a soft print sends OWL back to $8.50.

On the calendar: 2026-07-30 — Q2 2026 earnings

alt manager rotationprivate credit beneficiarypost selloff setup

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Bullish sentiment5 posts analyzed · as of 2026-07-15

Blue Owl Capital chatter is bullish. Private equity stocks have bounced sharply over the last week as investors rotated into areas that did poorly in the first half - OWL benefiting alongside ARES/CG/KKR/BX/APO. Traders eye OWL crossing $9.29 as key. Community also has $OWL Metallicus NFT/Royal Owls Club chatter. Community broadly long the private-equity rotation.

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $OWL

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Alternative asset manager specializing in direct lending and GP-minority investments for middle-market companies.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Asset Management sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $OWL.

Asset Management · Financial Services

No material change from last week — AI infrastructure (data centers, power, logistics) and Bitcoin treasury strategies, both of which require patient institutional capital that private market..

What this means for $OWL

Neutral — Alternative asset manager specializing in direct lending and GP-minority investments for middle-market companies; limited read-through from asset management macro dynamics to this specific revenue mix.

Top industry ETF

$IAIiShares U.S. Broker-Dealers & Securities Exchanges ETF
+4.7%YTD
+8.6%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
76.7How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
4.8%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
22.4%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
8.4%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
5.2Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
3.9%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
64.4%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
2.1Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q1 2026Apr 30, 2026$0.19$0.190.0%
Q4 2025Feb 5, 2026$0.24$0.22+9.1%
Q3 2025Oct 30, 2025$0.22$0.22-0.7%
Q2 2025Jul 31, 2025$0.21$0.21+1.6%
Next earningsThu, Jul 30·consensus EPS $0.21

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$753.8M+10.3%87.9%14.4%$0.02$89.0M
Q4 FY25$755.6M+19.7%62.0%44.7%$0.07$359.1M
Q3 FY25$728.0M+21.2%53.1%15.5%$0.01$422.5M
Q2 FY25$703.1M+27.9%53.6%14.1%$0.03$412.5M

Forward consensus

4-year forecast · up to 8 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$2.8B$2.8B – $2.9B$0.87$0.83 – $0.898
FY27$3.1B$3.0B – $3.3B$0.97$0.85 – $1.058
FY28$3.6B$3.6B – $3.7B$1.12$0.94 – $1.304
FY29$4.1B$4.0B – $4.3B$1.29$1.24 – $1.343

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.6×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.12%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.-0.8%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.-22.5%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatHigh float · 623.1M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today2.3% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β1.205-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

No open-market buys or sells in the last 180 days.

+ 19 other (13 awards · 3 others · 3 inkinds) in window

See when $OWL insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
Free, forever. No credit card.

SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

8-KShareholder voteJun 48-K — Item 5.07: Shareholder vote
AI summary

OWL (OWL) disclosed the results of its annual meeting of shareholders in an 8-K filing under Item 5.07. Shareholders voted on multiple proposals. All management-sponsored proposals were approved by majority shareholder vote. Annual meeting results are a routine disclosure that confirms shareholder ratification of the board's composition and compensation practices.

+ 17 other (10 13Gs · 2 8-Ks · 2 proxys · 1 10-Q) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

AI Bubble Risks Make Dividend Stocks Attractive Againseekingalpha.com·2d agoINVESTIGATION NOTICE: Girard Sharp Law Firm Encourages Former Investors of Blue Owl Technology Finance Corp. II Who Received Shares of Blue Owl Technology Finance Corp. (NYSE: OTF), to Contact the Firmglobenewswire.com·5d agoINVESTIGATION NOTICE: Girard Sharp Law Firm Encourages Former Investors of Blue Owl Technology Finance Corp. II Who Received Shares of Blue Owl Technology Finance Corp. (NYSE: OTF), to Contact the Firmglobenewswire.com·6d agoUS direct-lending activity falls even as private credit firms raise more cashreuters.com·11d agoFunds Managed by Blue Owl Capital Complete Acquisition of Spire Healthcare Portfolioprnewswire.com·12d ago

In themes

Explore the broader themes this ticker is being talked about under.

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TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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