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TickerTalks›$FICO
FIFICO

Fair Isaac Corporation

Buzzing onTrending downwardX chatter picking upMoving on elevated volumeBacked by solid revenue growth
$FICO·$20B·Software - Application·Technology
$929.97-0.2%YTD-44.9%1Y-39.4%
Price updated 11m ago·X counts updated 2d ago
FIFICO
$FICOFair Isaac Corporation
$929.97-0.25%445 posts1.6×
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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On X

Top X posts

The complete picture of $FICO on X — how loud the conversation is right now, how it has trended over the last two weeks, and which way the crowd is leaning.

445X posts · last 7 days
Aug 22Sep 6
Chatter Meter
1.6×
QuietNormal · 1×Loud

How loud $FICO's conversation on X is versus its own normal — 1× is typical, higher means busier. Right now it's running louder than usual, louder than 96% of tracked names.

Bearish sentiment⚠AI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data73 posts analyzed · as of 2026-09-07 · top-engagement diverged

Fair Isaac crashed ~16% after FHFA ordered Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to approve VantageScore across the mortgage market, threatening FICO's decade-long pricing playbook. Bulls argue the pricing model is defensible and the same headline has faded twice before, but even they concede management is loading debt and buybacks aggressively. Value long-termers stay in; near-term tape is bearish.

Read what X is saying about $FICO

  • Bullish vs bearish call — with the AI summary of the day's posts
  • Divergence flag when the top-engagement posts argue the other side
  • How loud the conversation is versus this ticker's own normal
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AI verdictAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

TickerTalks' own read on what's driving $FICO — fundamentals, momentum, or an event — and whether it agrees with the X crowd.

Broken storySelling offAI verdict · as of 2026-09-07

Falling on heavy selling — points lower unless it turns around.

FHFA just ended the FICO mortgage monopoly by fiat — the moat that justified the multiple is gone.

Fair Isaac is the analytics franchise best known for the FICO credit score — the standard the US mortgage market has priced against for decades. That standard just got structurally broken: on September 4, FHFA director Pulte ordered Fannie and Freddie to accept VantageScore 4.0 from every lender, effective immediately.

  • The financials are still excellent — Q2 revenue up 39% YoY with an 84% gross margin and a 58% operating margin — a franchise-quality print — but the multiple that put this at 35x earnings assumed a moat around mortgage scoring that no longer exists.
  • The FHFA order is the load-bearing change — bulls note this is the third iteration of the same headline that faded twice, but this time it's an executed directive to the GSEs, not a proposal; assuming even a modest share loss over 2027-28 turns a compounder into a re-rate story.
  • The tape has already delivered the verdict — down 38% YTD and sitting at just 5% of the 52-week range, with 4x normal volume on the crash day; that's a de-rating event, not a shakeout.

A November 4 print with management defending the mortgage-scoring moat and providing a credible share-retention framework is what would slow the fade. Continued bad-news drift, or evidence VantageScore is winning issuer adoption, is what confirms the multiple keeps compressing.

Agrees with X sentimentX is bearish for the right reason — the FHFA VantageScore order — and honest about the capital-allocation frustration behind it. The 'third headline that faded' pushback is fair but this time it's a directive not a proposal, so the sample's bearish tone is defensible.

What to watch: November 4 fiscal Q4 earnings — mortgage segment volume trend and any FY27 guide accounting for VantageScore share loss; a credible share-retention story slows the fade, another guide-down confirms the de-rate.

On the calendar: 2026-11-04 — fiscal Q4 earnings

moat broken by regulatornear 52w lowde rating event4x volume crash

Read the AI verdict on $FICO

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • Whether TickerTalks' read agrees with or diverges from the X crowd
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Develops FICO credit scores used in 90%+ of US lending decisions and sells predictive analytics software to banks and insurers.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Software - Application sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $FICO.

Software - Application · Technology

SaaS deal cycles remain elongated outside AI-native workloads; rate-sensitive multiples are compressing pure-play revenue growth stories. AI co-pilot and agent automation upsell — NOW, CRM, SAP, WDAY, TEAM — is the only segment with clear near-term acceleration, while companies lacking AI differentiation are treading water on flat net-dollar-retention.

What this means for $FICO

Partial — FICO's fraud detection and decision management analytics are embedded in enterprise financial workflows; AI-enhanced decisioning is an incremental upsell but the core credit score business is stable and subscription-bound.

Top industry ETF

$IGViShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF
-1.8%YTD
-5.0%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
35.4How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
53.2%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
50.4%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
3.4%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
11.7Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
-43.1%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
84.2%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
-1.7Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Jul 29, 2026$12.18$11.76+3.6%
Q1 2026Apr 28, 2026$12.50$10.89+14.8%
Q4 2025Jan 28, 2026$7.33$7.08+3.5%
Q3 2025Nov 5, 2025$7.74$7.32+5.7%
Next earningsWed, Nov 4·consensus EPS $11.03

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q2 FY26$691.7M+38.7%86.8%58.2%$11.19$223.1M
Q1 FY26$512.0M+16.4%83.0%45.7%$6.68$173.9M
Q4 FY25$515.8M+13.6%82.3%46.0%$6.48$219.5M
Q3 FY25$536.4M+19.8%83.7%48.9%$7.49$276.2M

Forward consensus

5-year forecast · up to 16 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$2.5B$2.5B – $2.6B$42.94$42.00 – $45.4815
FY27$2.9B$2.9B – $3.0B$52.73$51.07 – $53.9115
FY28$3.2B$2.6B – $3.5B$63.37$48.95 – $69.1316
FY29$3.7B$3.4B – $3.8B$75.90$69.20 – $79.628
FY30$3.7B$3.5B – $3.9B$83.61$76.22 – $87.718

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.4.2×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.6%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.-20.2%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.-28.5%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatLow float · 20.9M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today6.8% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β1.325-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellJul 29Eva ManolisDirector967 sh$1.4M
+ 14 other (8 exempts · 4 inkinds · 2 awards) in window

See when $FICO insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

8-KMaterial agreementJun 88-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement · Item 2.03: Material debt obligation · Item 8.01: Other event
AI summary

FICO (FICO) disclosed a material definitive agreement under Item 1.01, reporting a merger or acquisition transaction involving growth company as defined in Rule. The deal is valued at approximately $1.5 billion. Details of the transaction terms, consideration structure, and closing conditions are set forth in the full 8-K filing. Definitive merger agreements are among the most material events a public company can disclose, triggering regulatory review and shareholder vote requirements.

8-KMaterial agreementMar 208-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement · Item 2.03: Material debt obligation
+ 9 other (5 13Gs · 2 10-Qs · 2 earnings 8-Ks) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

California State Teachers Retirement System Buys 40,336,668 Shares of Fair Isaac Corporation $FICOdefenseworld.net·2d agoStock Market Midday, Sept. 4: Stocks Edge Lower on Strong Jobs Report as Lululemon Plummetsfool.com·4d agoWhy Fair Isaac Stock Crashed Todayfool.com·4d agoFair Isaac Corporation $FICO Shares Sold by Barlow Wealth Partners LLCdefenseworld.net·5d agoCanada Pension Plan Investment Board Invests $1.74 Million in Fair Isaac Corporation $FICOdefenseworld.net·9d ago

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Voices on X · top 15 · last 7 days

TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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