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TickerTalks›$CF
CFCF

CF Industries Holdings, Inc.

Strong FundamentalsStrong FundamentalsRevenue growing 18% YoY at strong marginsStreet coverage with positive forward estimatesQuiet on X (81 mentions/wk)
$CF·$18B·Agricultural Inputs·Basic Materials
$120.85+0.9%YTD+54.6%1Y+45.6%
Price updated 1d ago·X counts updated 6d ago
CFCF
$CFCF Industries Holdings, Inc.
$120.85+0.90%81 posts0.9×
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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On X

The complete picture of $CF on X — how loud the conversation is right now, how it has trended over the last two weeks, and which way the crowd is leaning.

81X posts · last 7 days
Sep 29Oct 11
Chatter Meter
0.9×
QuietNormal · 1×Loud

How loud $CF's conversation on X is versus its own normal — 1× is typical, higher means busier. Right now it's about its usual level.

Bullish sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data5 posts analyzed · as of 2026-09-10

CF Industries is being lined up as a compounder trade riding fertilizer momentum — traders waiting on the India urea tender to confirm another leg of the fertilizer trade, and grouping $CF with $ADM/$NTR as a well-worked swing basket. Small, patient bull tone.

Read what X is saying about $CF

  • Bullish vs bearish call — with the AI summary of the day's posts
  • Divergence flag when the top-engagement posts argue the other side
  • How loud the conversation is versus this ticker's own normal
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AI verdictAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

TickerTalks' own read on what's driving $CF — fundamentals, momentum, or an event — and whether it agrees with the X crowd.

Proven numbersWinding up for a moveAI verdict · as of 2026-10-02

Trading in a tight range and building pressure — a move looks likely soon, but the direction isn't clear yet.

CF Industries is up 48% YTD on fertilizer momentum — traders waiting on the India urea tender for the next leg.

CF Industries is the North American nitrogen-fertilizer leader — urea, UAN, and ammonia for ag and industrial customers. The cycle has been constructive and the stock has rerated.

  • The business is capturing the cycle: Q1 revenue +17.6% YoY at a 38% operating margin and ROIC of 16.5% — top-decile nitrogen-fertilizer economics with pricing supporting both volume and margin.
  • At 10.3x PE and 2.76x sales the valuation is reasonable for cycle-mid fertilizer — not cheap on the downside but defensible against a $400/ton urea price environment.
  • 52-week range position is 60% with volume at 79% of average — mid-upper range on quiet volume, consolidating ahead of the India urea tender outcome as the near-term catalyst.

Nov 4 Q3 is the gate — any India urea tender clearing plus continued US pricing extends the move. A tender postponement or a pricing softening and the stock gives back some of the YTD gain.

Agrees with X sentimentThe thread has the right drivers — fertilizer momentum, India urea tender as a near-term catalyst, swing-basket grouping with ADM and NTR — all substantively grounded, with the honest patient-tone framing.

What to watch: Nov 4 Q3 — nitrogen-pricing realization, urea tender impact, operating-margin trajectory, and FY27 guide. A pricing softening or tender postponement is the clear invalidator.

On the calendar: 2026-11-04 — Q3 earnings

Read the AI verdict on $CF

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • Whether TickerTalks' read agrees with or diverges from the X crowd
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Largest US nitrogen fertilizer producer, making ammonia, urea, and UAN from natural gas, sold to corn-belt farmers and industrial buyers.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Agricultural Inputs sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $CF.

Agricultural Inputs · Basic Materials

No material change from last week — US natural gas feedstock advantage sustains nitrogen producers vs.

What this means for $CF

Partial — Largest US nitrogen fertilizer producer, making ammonia, urea, and UAN from natural gas, sold to corn-belt farmers and industrial buyers.

Top industry ETF

$MOOVanEck Agribusiness ETF
+12.0%YTD
+12.8%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
10.3How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
16.5%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
38.1%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
8.9%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
2.8Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
40.4%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
42.5%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.6Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Aug 5, 2026$4.73$5.63-16.0%
Q1 2026May 6, 2026$3.99$2.63+51.7%
Q4 2025Feb 18, 2026$2.99$2.43+23.0%
Q3 2025Nov 5, 2025$2.19$2.16+1.4%
Next earningsWed, Nov 4·consensus EPS $2.98

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q2 FY26$2.2B+17.6%51.5%47.3%$4.74$607.0M
Q1 FY26$2.0B+19.4%37.6%32.2%$3.99$273.0M
Q4 FY25$1.9B+22.8%41.1%36.2%$2.60$313.0M
Q3 FY25$1.7B+21.1%38.1%35.0%$2.19$717.0M

Forward consensus

5-year forecast · up to 16 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$8.1B$7.6B – $9.8B$14.99$13.53 – $16.3016
FY27$7.4B$6.9B – $8.1B$11.26$9.55 – $12.9816
FY28$6.9B$6.1B – $9.4B$8.88$7.14 – $10.5315
FY29$6.7B$6.2B – $8.6B$8.18$7.34 – $11.1910
FY30$6.9B$6.4B – $8.9B$8.79$7.89 – $12.047

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.7×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.68%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.-2.0%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.+5.6%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

β0.405-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

No open-market buys or sells in the last 180 days.

+ 12 other (12 awards) in window

See when $CF insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

8-KOfficer or director changeSep 38-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change
AI summary

CF Industries (CF) filed an 8-K (Item 5.02) disclosing that Chief Accounting Officer Richard A. Hoker has announced his intention to retire. No effective date was specified in the body excerpt. A successor has not been named. This represents a senior accounting leadership transition at a major fertilizer producer.

3New insider — initial holdingsMay 283
8-KOfficer or director changeMay 58-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
8-KShareholder voteMay 48-K — Item 5.07: Shareholder vote
+ 9 other (4 earnings 8-Ks · 3 13Gs · 2 10-Qs) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. $CF Stock: Krilogy Financial LLC Raises Positiondefenseworld.net·3d agoHere's Why CF Industries (CF) is a Strong Growth Stockzacks.com·4d agoWhy CF Industries (CF) is a Top Value Stock for the Long-Termzacks.com·5d agoCF Industries Holdings, Inc. $CF Stock: NorthCrest Asset Manangement LLC Raises Positiondefenseworld.net·5d agoCF Industries Holdings, Inc. $CF Stock Purchased by GAMMA Investing LLCdefenseworld.net·9d ago

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Voices on X · last 7 days

No standout posts about $CF on X in the last 7 days.

TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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