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SFSFTBY

SoftBank Group Corp.

$SFTBY·$201B·Telecommunications Services·Communication Services
$17.94-0.1%YTD+24.6%1Y+37.2%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-08-08: 0 posts2026-08-09: 0 posts2026-08-10: 2 posts2026-08-11: 2 posts2026-08-12: 1 posts2026-08-13: 1 posts2026-08-14: 2 posts8+7%
Price updated 23h ago·X counts updated 21h ago
SFSFTBY
$SFTBYSoftBank Group Corp.
$17.94-0.06%8 posts+7%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $SFTBY, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Proven numbersCooling offAI verdict · as of 2026-08-13

Catching its breath after a run — could pick back up or fade from here.

Japan's leverage-heavy AI and tech-investment holding company — Arm, OpenAI, Intel — trading at 7x earnings while the market debates whether the OpenAI bet is genius or reckless.

SoftBank Group is a Japanese conglomerate whose value is now dominated by three things: the majority stake in Arm, a leveraged position in OpenAI that keeps growing, and a fresh disclosed $8.2B position in Intel. Underneath sits a real telecom business and the Vision Funds' broader portfolio.

  • The stock offers levered AI-infrastructure exposure at 7x TTM earnings — Arm's public value is transparent, OpenAI marks and Intel drive the swings, and the whole thing runs on 1.48x debt-to-equity, which is where both the upside and the downside come from.
  • Last quarter's earnings beat by 176% (mostly mark-to-market portfolio gains) while the operating businesses (telecom + Arm royalties) still grew revenue 9% year over year — the fundamental engine underneath the marks is real, not decorative.
  • The leverage cuts both ways sharply: if a portfolio holding raises at a markdown, or the AI-cap-ex cycle cools, the discount to NAV can widen fast and margin considerations enter the picture — this is not a low-risk 7x-earnings stock.
  • The tape has cooled — pulled back to 37% of the 52-week range, 9% below the 50-day average, volume half of normal — so the AI-narrative euphoria has paused even as the underlying bets have gotten bigger.

If OpenAI eventually IPOs at or above its recent private marks and Arm's royalty ramp continues, the multiple expands from 7x toward 12-15x — a $22-25 handle. What restarts the move is any clean marker of OpenAI's next primary round or an Arm licensing upgrade. If the AI capex cycle rolls or a big holding writes down, the leverage becomes the story and the discount widens.

What to watch: OpenAI's next primary-round valuation (rumored well above prior marks) and Arm quarterly royalty growth — these two set the NAV. Also watch quarterly portfolio marks for any large single-name write-down that flags leverage stress.

On the calendar: 2026-11-10 — Q2 earnings

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $SFTBY

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Japanese conglomerate combining a domestic mobile carrier, majority ownership of chip designer Arm, and the SoftBank Vision Fund tech investment vehicles.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Telecommunications Services sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $SFTBY.

Telecommunications Services · Communication Services

No material change from last week — IRDM's only truly global LEO constellation and GSAT's Apple SOS partnership represent a new service layer that neither cable nor wireless incumbents can match.

What this means for $SFTBY

Neutral — Japanese conglomerate combining a domestic mobile carrier, majority ownership of chip designer Arm, and the SoftBank Vision Fund tech investment vehicles; limited read-through from telecommunications services macro dynamics to this specific revenue mix.

Industry benchmark

18-name peer basket
+31.7%YTD
+51.2%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
6.9How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
-0.0%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
-0.1%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
-7.2%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
4.4Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
34.5%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
51.5%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
1.5Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Aug 6, 2026$0.19$0.07+175.6%
Q1 2026May 13, 2026$1.01$0.16+546.2%
Q4 2025Feb 12, 2026$0.14$0.10+35.7%
Q3 2025Nov 11, 2025$1.48$0.14+968.6%
Next earningsTue, Nov 10·consensus EPS $-0.03

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q4 FY26$2.12T+9.1%49.6%-20.4%$162.98$-602.1B
Q3 FY26$2.02T+10.1%51.7%3.8%$21.96$-931.3B
Q2 FY26$1.95T+10.3%52.5%7.7%$223.00$-422.7B
Q1 FY26$1.82T+7.0%52.4%10.8%$36.46$-487.8B

Forward consensus

5-year forecast · up to 8 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY27$8.44T$7.55T – $8.76T$58.82-$176.47 – $254.908
FY28$9.05T$8.09T – $9.39T$54.60$47.11 – $57.318
FY29$9.69T$8.66T – $10.06T$56.33$48.59 – $59.124
FY30$11.10T$9.93T – $11.53T$68.15$58.79 – $71.534
FY31$13.40T$11.99T – $13.91T$117.69$101.53 – $123.533

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.6×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.40%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.-4.8%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.+11.1%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatMega float · 3.7B shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today0.1% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β0.995-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.ListedOTCListed on an over-the-counter market (PNK / OTCQB / OTCQX), not a major exchange. Lower disclosure requirements and thinner liquidity.

SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

SC 13D/AActivist amendmentMay 29SC 13D/A
AI summary

SoftBank Group Corp. (SFTBY) and affiliated entities — including SB Global Advisers Limited and various SoftBank fund vehicles — filed Amendment No. 4 to their Schedule 13D on Symbotic Inc. (SYM) as of May 27, 2026. SB Global Advisers Limited discloses shared dispositive power over at least 20,000,000 Symbotic shares; certain sub-entities report zero current holdings. The aggregate SoftBank group position and any change in investment intent are not fully visible in the excerpt. SoftBank is both a major investor and a key customer/partner in the Symbotic ecosystem.

3New insider — initial holdingsMar 183
+ 7 other (3 13Fs · 3 13Gs · 1 F-6EF) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

SEC filing shows Softbank initiates stake in Capital One; sells 71.5% of its Taiwan Semi holdingsreuters.com·1d agoNikkei 225 Index bullish flag forms as SoftBank, Kioxia, Nintendo stocks jumpinvezz.com·2d agoSoftBank jumps 5% as Nikkei rallies, but BOJ could spoil the partyinvezz.com·2d agoImpax International Sustainable Economy Fund Q2 2026 Contributors And Detractorsseekingalpha.com·2d agoU.S. judge ends graft case against Indian billionaire Gautam Adanicnbc.com·5d ago

In themes

Explore the broader themes this ticker is being talked about under.

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Voices on X · last 7 days

No standout posts about $SFTBY on X in the last 7 days.

TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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