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ASASTS

AST SpaceMobile, Inc.

Hot onWhy it's trendingX chatter spiked vs its recent normMoving on elevated volumeStrong bullish X conversation
$ASTS·$30B·Telecommunications Services·Communication Services
$57.80+5.1%YTD-22.2%1Y+0.6%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-07-10: 1,378 posts2026-07-11: 333 posts2026-07-12: 486 posts2026-07-13: 2,180 posts2026-07-14: 3,856 posts2026-07-15: 7,312 posts2026-07-16: 7,931 posts23,682+66%
Price updated 3h ago·X counts updated 1d ago
ASASTS
$ASTSAST SpaceMobile, Inc.
$57.80+5.07%24k posts+66%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Top X posts

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $ASTS, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Driven by hypeSelling offAI verdict · as of 2026-07-16

Falling on heavy selling — points lower unless it turns around.

Direct-to-phone satellite story just added $1B of convertible dilution supply into an already-broken chart.

AST SpaceMobile is building a satellite network that beams cell service directly to standard smartphones — no ground gateway, no special antenna. It's a lottery ticket on unbelievably ambitious space engineering, and today the company announced $1 billion of new convertible notes to fund the next satellite build.

  • The $1B convertible note offering announced today is ~3.5% of the market cap in future potential dilution supply, and it lands on top of $310M of cash burn last quarter alone — this isn't a one-time raise, it's the shape of the business until commercial launch.
  • Revenue was $14.7M last quarter against a $30B market cap — the valuation is 100% forward-looking; even the 2027 analyst revenue estimate of $741M leaves the stock at 40x forward sales two years out.
  • Analyst 2028 revenue of $1.9B and 2029 of $3.2B assumes MNO partnerships and government contracts scale hard — they might, but every quarter of delay is another convert raise diluting the equity story further.
  • CEO Abel Avellan just filed a 13D/A confirming a 6% stake with investment intent — insider commitment is real, but a founder holding 6% while raising $1B in converts is the opposite of a promotional exit signal.
  • 52-week position is 31st percentile before today's news, position vs 50-day MA -23% — the tape was already telling you the story wasn't paying, and the fresh supply doesn't help.

August 10 earnings is where you find out whether cash burn is stabilizing; the $1B raise buys about a year of runway at current burn, so time isn't the problem — it's the dilution that comes with it. What restarts the tape is a big MNO pulling in a commercial-launch date. A drift below the 52-week low is where the dilution narrative wins outright.

Differs from X sentimentX chatter is a patient-bull read — MNO partnerships, government contracts, satellites unfolding — but was posted before today's $1B convertible note announcement. The fresh dilution supply changes the near-term setup; the long-term story is intact, the short-term supply/demand isn't.

What to watch: Aug 10 Q2 earnings — need cash-burn slowing and a definitive MNO commercial-launch date. Another quarter of $300M+ burn plus more capital raises confirms the breakdown; a launch-date pull-in is the one thing that resets the tape.

On the calendar: 2026-08-10 — Q2 earnings

sentiment pre dates catalyst

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Mixed sentiment40 posts analyzed · as of 2026-07-17

AST SpaceMobile is a painful high-conviction growth name mid-drawdown. The stock has fallen from about $133 to $57 in 48 days, and the near-term trigger was the announcement of a $1B convertible note priced at a 7.5-year, 1.625% coupon with 20% conversion premium and capped calls. Bulls frame the raise as an institutional vote of confidence, point to a confirmed J-LEO award with Rakuten, a successful BB10 array unfold in orbit, and a planned 400,000+ square-foot Midland manufacturing facility with 1,100 jobs. Bears and shaken longs criticize management for diluting at $60 rather than $120 and openly question whether the low is in. The conversation is emotional, not just analytical.

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $ASTS

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Building a LEO satellite constellation to deliver cellular broadband to standard smartphones in coverage-dead zones.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Telecommunications Services sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $ASTS.

Telecommunications Services · Communication Services

No material change from last week — IRDM's only truly global LEO constellation and GSAT's Apple SOS partnership represent a new service layer that neither cable nor wireless incumbents can match.

What this means for $ASTS

Direct beneficiary — Building a LEO satellite constellation to deliver cellular broadband to standard smartphones in coverage-dead zones; the company is structurally positioned to capture the LEO satellite global coverage and Apple SOS emergency positioning.

Industry benchmark

19-name peer basket
+16.7%YTD
+29.9%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
-55.8How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
-6.4%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
-441%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
-3.4%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
448.4Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
-32.3%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
-27.0%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.0Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q1 2026May 11, 2026$-0.66$-0.26-158.8%
Q4 2025Mar 2, 2026$-0.26$-0.18-44.4%
Q3 2025Nov 10, 2025$-0.45$-0.39-15.9%
Q2 2025Aug 11, 2025$-0.41$-0.19-113.9%
Next earningsMon, Aug 10·consensus EPS $-0.25

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$14.7M+1952.2%24.9%-1014%$-0.66$-309.7M
Q4 FY25$54.3M+2731.3%-68.1%-133%$-0.28$-330.7M
Q3 FY25$14.7M+1239.9%62.6%-541%$-0.45$-302.9M
Q2 FY25$1.2M+28.4%100%-6297%$-0.41$-353.6M

Forward consensus

5-year forecast · up to 7 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$168.3M$156.7M – $173.4M-$1.55-$2.06 – -$0.947
FY27$741.0M$647.2M – $814.9M-$0.72-$2.43 – $2.607
FY28$1.9B$1.9B – $1.9B$1.09$0.62 – $1.555
FY29$3.2B$2.5B – $3.8B$3.21$2.38 – $4.042
FY30$4.1B$3.3B – $4.9B$4.00$2.97 – $5.022

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.2.5×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.19%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.-35.8%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.-33.9%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatHigh float · 266.0M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today19.7% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β2.685-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellJun 11Johnson Andrew MartinCFO45.8K sh$4.3MSellJun 5Huiwen YaoCTO40.0K sh$3.9MSellMay 20Johnson Andrew MartinCFO5.0K sh$451KSellMay 13Julio A. TorresDirector15.0K sh$1.1MSellApr 15Hiroshi Mikitani10% owner1.4M sh$116.4MSellApr 14Hiroshi Mikitani10% owner1.7M sh$154.5MSellMar 23Huiwen YaoCTO40.0K sh$3.6M
+ 29 other (15 inkinds · 11 awards · 2 inthemoneys · 1 other) in window

See when $ASTS insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

8-KPress release / Reg FDJul 158-K — Item 2.02: Earnings release · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD · Item 8.01: Other event
AI summary

AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) announced a proposed offering of convertible senior notes due 2034 in a Rule 144A private placement, along with planned capped call transactions to reduce potential dilution. As of June 30, 2026, the company held total cash of approximately $2,723 million. Q2 2026 financial results have not been finalized and actual results may differ from expectations. The filing was dated July 15, 2026, and accompanies a Regulation FD disclosure.

SC 13D/AActivist amendmentJun 23SC 13D/A
AI summary

Amendment No. 18 to Schedule 13D filed by Abel Avellan reporting beneficial ownership of AST SpaceMobile, Inc. representing a 6% stake (6 shares), with investment intent. This SC 13D/A filing dated 2026-06-23 updates the holder's position and disclosed intentions.

8-KShareholder voteJun 158-K — Item 5.07: Shareholder vote
AI summary

AST SpaceMobile, Inc. reported results of its Annual Meeting held June 12, 2026, at which 87.7% of total voting power was represented. All 10 incumbent director nominees were re-elected with strong majorities, KPMG LLP was ratified as independent auditor for FY2026, and executive compensation received non-binding advisory approval. Abel Avellan received the highest vote tally among nominees; Richard Sarnoff received the most withheld votes but still passed comfortably. A routine annual governance event with no contested proposals or material opposition.

8-KPress release / Reg FDMay 118-K — Item 2.02: Earnings release · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
AI summary

ASTS reported First Quarter 2026 Business Update, dated May 11, 202 financial results (8-K Item 2.02). Investors should review the full earnings press release and any management guidance for forward outlook.

SC 13D/AActivist amendmentMay 5SC 13D/A
AI summary

Rakuten Mobile, Inc. filed an amended Schedule 13D on ASTS disclosing beneficial ownership (15,510,078.00 shares) as of 2026-05-05. The filer's stated intent is passive investment with no plan to influence control of the company.

SC 13D/AActivist amendmentApr 24SC 13D/A
AI summary

Rakuten Mobile, Inc. filed an amended Schedule 13D on ASTS disclosing beneficial ownership (21,020,155.00 shares) as of 2026-04-24. The filer's stated intent is passive investment with no plan to influence control of the company.

8-KPress release / Reg FDApr 208-K — Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD · Item 8.01: Other event
AI summary

ASTS filed an 8-K Item 7.01 (Reg FD) disclosure dated 2026-04-20. Reg FD disclosures make material information simultaneously available to all investors; content may include guidance updates, strategic plans, or preliminary results.

SC 13D/AActivist amendmentApr 16SC 13D/A
AI summary

Rakuten Mobile, Inc. filed an amended Schedule 13D on ASTS disclosing beneficial ownership (26,080,155.00 shares) as of 2026-04-16. The filer's stated intent is passive investment with no plan to influence control of the company.

+ 20 other (4 8-Ks · 4 424B5s · 2 proxys · 2 13Gs) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Stock Market Today, July 16: AST SpaceMobile Falls on $1B Convertible Notes Offeringfool.com·1d agoBuy ASTS, Watch SpaceX and Rocket Lab From the Launch Pad: Piper Sandler's Space Playbookbenzinga.com·2d agoAST SpaceMobile's stock is sinking as the SpaceX rival looks to raise more cashmarketwatch.com·2d agoWhy AST SpaceMobile Stock Just Crashedfool.com·2d agoAST SpaceMobile stock sinks on double dose of bad newsinvezz.com·2d ago

In themes

Explore the broader themes this ticker is being talked about under.

Space Economy

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