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ASASTS

AST SpaceMobile, Inc.

Rising onWhy it's trendingX chatter picking upMoving on elevated volumeBacked by solid revenue growth
$ASTS·$17B·Telecommunications Services·Communication Services
$40.66-8.5%YTD-40.2%1Y-54.6%
Price updated 7h ago·X counts updated 5d ago
ASASTS
$ASTSAST SpaceMobile, Inc.
$40.66-8.55%7.9k posts1.2×
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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On X

Top X posts

The complete picture of $ASTS on X — how loud the conversation is right now, how it has trended over the last two weeks, and which way the crowd is leaning.

7,945X posts · last 7 days
Sep 29Oct 11
Chatter Meter
1.2×
QuietNormal · 1×Loud

How loud $ASTS's conversation on X is versus its own normal — 1× is typical, higher means busier. Right now it's about its usual level, louder than 90% of tracked names.

Bullish sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data27 posts analyzed · as of 2026-10-02

The crowd is bullish on direct-to-device — Fairwinds was granted a US patent for distributed-antenna coherent combining, the September corporate update is landing well, and 72% of the week's option volume was calls. Longs are modeling a "stock doubles overnight" scenario on a T-Mobile US-exclusive. The pushback is targeted and technical: one voice warning the recent ITU filing is a modification, not the 344-constellation new filing bulls are claiming.

Read what X is saying about $ASTS

  • Bullish vs bearish call — with the AI summary of the day's posts
  • Divergence flag when the top-engagement posts argue the other side
  • How loud the conversation is versus this ticker's own normal
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AI verdictAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

TickerTalks' own read on what's driving $ASTS — fundamentals, momentum, or an event — and whether it agrees with the X crowd.

Hinges on a big eventSelling offAI verdict · as of 2026-10-02

Falling on heavy selling — points lower unless it turns around.

Pre-revenue satellite-to-cell optionality — and the market just started pricing in execution risk.

AST SpaceMobile is building a satellite constellation to beam cell service directly to unmodified phones — a huge market if it works. The stock has rolled over on missed guidance, insider selling, and class-action filings.

  • The commercial contracts are real (AT&T, Verizon, Vodafone) but the revenue isn't — Q1 revenue was de minimis against a $25B market cap, so this trades purely on how fast the constellation deploys and converts carrier MOUs to actual ARPU.
  • Position in the 52-week range is 13% and YTD is -23% with multiple securities-fraud lawsuits now open — the market is pricing in management credibility risk, not just execution risk.
  • Insider sells into September ($2.4M from Yao Huiwen, $707K from VP Shanti Gupta) alongside missed guidance are the clearest tell — retail is loading 72% of option volume into calls while insiders trim.

Nov 9 is the gate — a credible update on launch cadence and ARPU conversations with carriers restarts the move; another miss or ambiguous timeline and this breaks further. Optionality is huge, so is the gap between promise and proof.

Differs from X sentimentThe thread is leaning on the Fairwinds patent and a T-Mobile scenario to argue a double, but ignores that insiders are selling into retail call-buying, management openly missed guidance, and the class-action calendar is the near-term overhang.

What to watch: Nov 9 Q3 earnings — launch count on the next window, a specific ARPU/revenue timeline, and class-action status. A new equity raise would be the hard invalidator.

On the calendar: 2026-11-09 — Q3 earnings

Read the AI verdict on $ASTS

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • Whether TickerTalks' read agrees with or diverges from the X crowd
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Building a LEO satellite constellation to deliver cellular broadband to standard smartphones in coverage-dead zones.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Telecommunications Services sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $ASTS.

Telecommunications Services · Communication Services

No material change from last week — ASTS securities fraud class action adds litigation overhang to the satellite-direct-to-cellular thesis.

What this means for $ASTS

Neutral — Building a LEO satellite constellation to deliver cellular broadband to standard smartphones in coverage-dead zones.

Industry benchmark

18-name peer basket
+5.2%YTD
+5.7%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
-55.8How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
-6.4%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
-441%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
-3.4%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
448.4Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
-32.3%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
-27.0%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.0Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Aug 10, 2026$-0.77$-0.32-144.4%
Q1 2026May 11, 2026$-0.66$-0.26-158.8%
Q4 2025Mar 2, 2026$-0.26$-0.18-44.4%
Q3 2025Nov 10, 2025$-0.45$-0.39-15.9%
Next earningsMon, Nov 9·consensus EPS $-0.40

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$14.7M+1952.2%24.9%-1014%$-0.66$-309.7M
Q4 FY25$54.3M+2731.3%-68.1%-133%$-0.28$-330.7M
Q3 FY25$14.7M+1239.9%62.6%-541%$-0.45$-302.9M
Q2 FY25$1.2M+28.4%100%-6297%$-0.41$-353.6M

Forward consensus

5-year forecast · up to 10 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$160.4M$149.0M – $174.0M-$2.10-$2.30 – -$1.8810
FY27$689.7M$502.7M – $912.8M-$1.14-$2.10 – $0.699
FY28$1.8B$1.6B – $1.9B$0.22-$1.02 – $2.406
FY29$3.0B$2.4B – $3.7B$2.14$1.51 – $2.714
FY30$4.1B$3.1B – $4.9B$3.77$2.67 – $4.783

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.1.2×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.1%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.-33.1%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.-49.2%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatHigh float · 266.5M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today6.4% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β2.715-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellSep 16Shanti B. GuptaCOO12.0K sh$707KSellSep 16Huiwen YaoCTO40.0K sh$2.4MBuyAug 31Adriana CisnerosDirector10.8K sh$619KSellJun 11Johnson Andrew MartinCFO45.8K sh$4.3MSellJun 5Huiwen YaoCTO40.0K sh$3.9MSellMay 20Johnson Andrew MartinCFO5.0K sh$451KSellMay 13Julio A. TorresDirector15.0K sh$1.1M
+ 31 other (15 awards · 13 inkinds · 2 inthemoneys · 1 other) in window

See when $ASTS insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

3New insider — initial holdingsOct 13
AI summary

Wayne Thorsen filed a initial Form 3 beneficial ownership statement for AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (ASTS) on 2026-10-01, reporting their status as a EVP & Chief Commercial Officer. This is an administrative Section 16 disclosure required when a new insider (director, officer, or 10% holder) first reports their holdings; it signals a change in the company's executive or governance structure rather than a market transaction.

8-KOfficer or director changeSep 288-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change
AI summary

AST SpaceMobile's Board adopted a Senior Management Change of Control Severance Policy on September 25, 2026 covering all named executive officers (CEO, President, EVPs, SVPs). In a qualifying COC termination, the CEO receives 2.0x annual base salary plus target bonus, while all other covered executives receive 1.5x, plus pro-rata target bonus and COBRA subsidy. This is a defensive compensation governance measure that provides management retention incentives ahead of potential strategic transactions.

8-KPress release / Reg FDAug 108-K — Item 2.02: Earnings release · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
AI summary

AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (ASTS) reported Q2 2026 financial results on 2026-08-10, reporting financial results details in attached press release. Additional items: Item 7.01. Quarterly earnings are a material disclosure; investors should review the full press release for segment details and management commentary.

3New insider — initial holdingsJul 243
AI summary

Turco Christopher Edward filed an initial Form 3 as a 10%+ owner of ASTS, disclosing initial beneficial ownership of securities as of the event date. This is a standard Section 16 reporting obligation triggered by the relationship with the issuer. Routine administrative filing with no indication of open-market transactions.

8-KMaterial agreementJul 208-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement · Item 2.03: Material debt obligation · Item 3.02: Unregistered equity sale · Item 8.01: Other event
AI summary

AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (ASTS) completed a $1.0 billion private offering of 1.625% Convertible Senior Notes due February 1, 2034, closed July 20, 2026, with U.S. Bank Trust as trustee and an additional $150M option granted to initial purchasers for 13 days. The notes pay 1.625% interest semi-annually beginning February 1, 2027, are general unsecured obligations, and are convertible at holders' option when the stock trades at or above 130% of the conversion price for 20 of 30 consecutive trading days. This is a transformative capital raise for ASTS's satellite broadband buildout, adding $1B+ in long-dated debt with potential equity dilution upon conversion.

8-KPress release / Reg FDJul 158-K — Item 2.02: Earnings release · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD · Item 8.01: Other event
AI summary

AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) announced a proposed offering of convertible senior notes due 2034 in a Rule 144A private placement, along with planned capped call transactions to reduce potential dilution. As of June 30, 2026, the company held total cash of approximately $2,723 million. Q2 2026 financial results have not been finalized and actual results may differ from expectations. The filing was dated July 15, 2026, and accompanies a Regulation FD disclosure.

SC 13D/AActivist amendmentJun 23SC 13D/A
AI summary

Amendment No. 18 to Schedule 13D filed by Abel Avellan reporting beneficial ownership of AST SpaceMobile, Inc. representing a 6% stake (6 shares), with investment intent. This SC 13D/A filing dated 2026-06-23 updates the holder's position and disclosed intentions.

8-KShareholder voteJun 158-K — Item 5.07: Shareholder vote
AI summary

AST SpaceMobile, Inc. reported results of its Annual Meeting held June 12, 2026, at which 87.7% of total voting power was represented. All 10 incumbent director nominees were re-elected with strong majorities, KPMG LLP was ratified as independent auditor for FY2026, and executive compensation received non-binding advisory approval. Abel Avellan received the highest vote tally among nominees; Richard Sarnoff received the most withheld votes but still passed comfortably. A routine annual governance event with no contested proposals or material opposition.

+ 10 other (2 10-Qs · 2 8-Ks · 2 SC 13D/As · 2 proxys) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Why AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (ASTS) Dipped More Than Broader Market Todayzacks.com·9h agoAST SpaceMobile Is Down 67%—Could SpaceX's Mobile Push Deepen the Selloff?marketbeat.com·16h agoBronstein, Gewirtz & Grossman LLC Urges AST SpaceMobile, Inc. Investors to Act: Class Action Filed Alleging Investor Harmglobenewswire.com·16h agoKaplan Fox Notifies Investors of AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (ASTS) of the Lead Plaintiff Deadline on November 13, 2026newsfilecorp.com·18h agoASTS Investors Have Opportunity to Lead AST SpaceMobile, Inc. Securities Fraud Lawsuit with SBS Lawglobenewswire.com·18h ago

In themes

Explore the broader themes this ticker is being talked about under.

Space Economy

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TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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