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PMPM

Philip Morris International Inc.

$PM·$301B·Tobacco·Consumer Defensive
$200.17+2.3%YTD+22.1%1Y+24.0%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-07-20: 49 posts2026-07-21: 54 posts2026-07-22: 232 posts2026-07-23: 59 posts2026-07-24: 41 posts2026-07-25: 31 posts2026-07-26: 40 posts510-0%
Price updated 4m ago·X counts updated 2d ago
PMPM
$PMPhilip Morris International Inc.
$200.17+2.31%510 posts-0%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Top X posts

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $PM, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Proven numbersCooling offAI verdict · as of 2026-07-25

Catching its breath after a run — could pick back up or fade from here.

Philip Morris just printed its first $11B quarter — with a Q3 guide light enough to explain the flatlining tape at all-time highs.

Philip Morris International is the world's largest tobacco company outside the US — cigarettes internationally plus the fast-growing IQOS heated-tobacco platform and ZYN nicotine pouches. Q2 was a landmark print (first-ever quarter above $11B), but the Q3 guide came in below consensus, which is why the tape is digesting at all-time highs rather than extending.

  • The Q2 print set records that mattered: net revenue grew 10.4% YoY to $11.2B, adjusted diluted EPS of $2.20 beat $2.04 consensus, and cigarette volumes surprised to the upside at +1.1% YoY to 156.9B units — for a business the market assumes is in structural decline, a cigarette volume beat is the surprise.
  • The smoke-free story is now the majority of the growth: ZYN shipped 2.9B pouches (+1.8% YoY) with ZYN ULTRA launched in June; smoke-free products account for 42% of revenue and have grown ~19% annually since 2020 — this is the piece re-rating the multiple, not the tobacco base.
  • The Q3 guidance flag is what's capping the tape: $2.20-$2.25 EPS guidance versus $2.42 consensus is a real hair-cut — it likely reflects an FX headwind or one-time investment spend, but it's the specific reason a stock this fresh off a beat isn't extending toward $220.
  • Valuation is full but supported by cash returns: 27.5x trailing PE, 19x EV/EBITDA, and 3.6% free-cash-flow yield — the multiple is anchored to the smoke-free growth compounding, and the dividend + buyback pace continues to grind share count lower, which is why total-return math works.

October 21 Q3 earnings is the hinge — a Q3 print in line with the softer guide plus commentary that Q4 reverts to normalized EPS growth is what breaks the cooling into an accelerating leg toward $220; a repeat guide-lower plus a soft ZYN volume surprise triggers a real give-back.

Agrees with X sentimentX is bullish and I agree — the $11B quarter, the ZYN growth math, and the cigarette-volume beat are real; the one qualifier the crowd is glossing over is that the Q3 guide is $0.17 below consensus, which is why an at-all-time-highs tape has cooled instead of extended, and that gap has to be closed in October to restart the move.

What to watch: October 21 Q3 2026 earnings — the deciding numbers are Q3 EPS versus the $2.20-$2.25 guide, ZYN and IQOS unit-volume growth, and FY26 EPS guidance direction; a ZYN volume miss or a second guide-lower is the sell tell.

On the calendar: 2026-10-21 — Q3 2026 earnings

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Bullish sentiment34 posts analyzed · as of 2026-07-27

Philip Morris beat Q2 with revenue of $11.2B vs $10.6B and adjusted EPS of $2.20 vs $2.03, driving new all-time highs near $200. Morgan Stanley raised target from $200 to $215 and Needham from $200 to similar levels, with cigarette revenue growing at its fastest pace in a decade and ZYN plus IQOS momentum continuing. Sentiment is confidently bullish.

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $PM

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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Philip Morris International Inc. functions as a prominent tobacco enterprise, actively working toward a smoke-free future. The company is strategically diversifying its long-term product range to incorporate items beyond traditional tobacco and nicotine. Its primary business involves both conventional cigarettes and an expanding array of smoke-free alternatives, such as innovative heat-not-burn devices, vapor products, and oral nicotine solutions. These offerings are distributed in markets worldwide, with the exception of the United States. The smoke-free portfolio includes brands like HEETS (encompassing Creations, Dimensions, Marlboro variants), Parliament HeatSticks, and TEREA, in addition to KT&G-licensed brands Fiit and Miix. For conventional cigarettes, the company sells internationally recognized brands such as Marlboro, Parliament, Bond Street, Chesterfield, L&M, Lark, and Philip Morris. Regionally, it also owns major cigarette brands like Dji Sam Soe, Sampoerna A, and Sampoerna U in Indonesia, and Fortune and Jackpot in the Philippines. PMI's smoke-free innovations are currently available across 71 global markets. Established in 1987, Philip Morris International Inc. is headquartered in New York, New York.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Tobacco sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $PM.

Tobacco · Consumer Defensive

No material change from last week — the market's trajectory under China's tightening e-cigarette regulations determines RLX's volume and pricing, while ISPR's OEM device technology for nicotine..

Top industry ETF

$XLPConsumer Staples Select Sector SPDR
+8.3%YTD
+5.8%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
27.5How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
26.3%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
37.7%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
3.6%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
7.0Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
-112%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
67.5%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
-5.7Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Jul 22, 2026$2.20$2.05+7.3%
Q1 2026Apr 22, 2026$1.96$1.86+5.4%
Q4 2025Feb 6, 2026$1.70$1.700.0%
Q3 2025Oct 21, 2025$2.24$2.09+7.2%
Next earningsWed, Oct 21·consensus EPS $2.30

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q2 FY26$11.2B+10.4%68.4%40.5%$1.80—
Q1 FY26$10.1B+9.1%68.1%38.4%$1.56$-752.0M
Q4 FY25$10.4B+6.8%65.6%32.6%$1.37$4.3B
Q3 FY25$10.8B+9.4%67.8%39.3%$2.23$4.1B

Forward consensus

5-year forecast · up to 11 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$43.4B$43.2B – $43.5B$8.37$8.32 – $8.4010
FY27$46.0B$44.9B – $49.2B$9.14$8.99 – $9.3611
FY28$48.9B$47.8B – $50.6B$10.02$9.80 – $10.3211
FY29$51.5B$50.8B – $52.8B$11.03$10.83 – $11.385
FY30$54.2B$53.4B – $55.5B$12.05$11.83 – $12.435

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.7×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.93%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.+6.8%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.+15.6%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatMega float · 1.6B shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today0.2% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellFeb 20Reginaldo DobrowolskiGroup Controller6.0K sh$1.1MSellFeb 20Stacey KennedyCEO14.3K sh$2.6MSellFeb 19Emmanuel BabeauCFO33.8K sh$6.1MSellFeb 19Yann GuerinGroup Chief Legal Officer4.0K sh$727KSellFeb 19De Wilde FredericCEO20.0K sh$3.7MSellFeb 19Jacek OlczakCEO80.0K sh$14.6M
+ 30 other (22 awards · 8 inkinds) in window

See when $PM insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

8-KOfficer or director changeJul 98-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change
AI summary

PM filed an 8-K under Item 5.02 reporting a change in directors or principal officers. The filing also covers Item(s) 9.01. Personnel changes at the executive or board level are typically administrative but can signal strategic shifts depending on context.

8-K/AOfficer or director change (amended)Jun 168-K/A — Item 5.02: Officer or director change
AI summary

PM filed an 8-K under Item 5.02 reporting a change in directors or principal officers. The filing also covers Item(s) 9.01. Personnel changes at the executive or board level are typically administrative but can signal strategic shifts depending on context.

8-KPress release / Reg FDJun 118-K — Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
AI summary

PM filed an 8-K under Reg FD (Item 7.01), disclosing material non-public information simultaneously to all investors. This is typically an investor presentation, conference slides, or press release furnished as an exhibit. Reg FD filings ensure equal access to information for all investors; the substantive data is in the attached exhibit.

8-KPress release / Reg FDJun 28-K — Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
AI summary

PM filed an 8-K under Reg FD (Item 7.01), disclosing material information simultaneously to all investors. This is typically an investor presentation or press release furnished as an exhibit; the substantive data is in the attached exhibit.

8-KOfficer or director changeMay 208-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
8-KShareholder voteMay 88-K — Item 5.07: Shareholder vote
8-KPress release / Reg FDMay 68-K — Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
8-KPress release / Reg FDMar 138-K — Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
+ 24 other (4 13Gs · 3 earnings 8-Ks · 3 proxys · 3 8-Ks) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Philip Morris Opens $1.2 Billion Manufacturing Campus to Grow Zyn Brandwsj.com·1d agoPhilip Morris doubles Colorado campus investment to $1.2 billionreuters.com·1d agoPhilip Morris: Firing On All Cylindersseekingalpha.com·2d agoFirst Trust Advisors LP Decreases Position in Philip Morris International Inc. $PMdefenseworld.net·3d agoPhilip Morris: The Warnings In The Robust Performance (Rating Downgrade)seekingalpha.com·4d ago

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