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PHPHM

PulteGroup, Inc.

$PHM·$25B·Residential Construction·Consumer Cyclical
$128.75+3.3%YTD+8.7%1Y+11.0%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-07-20: 8 posts2026-07-21: 16 posts2026-07-22: 58 posts2026-07-23: 7 posts2026-07-24: 4 posts2026-07-25: 3 posts2026-07-26: 2 posts99+3%
Price updated 2d ago·X counts updated 3h ago
PHPHM
$PHMPulteGroup, Inc.
$128.75+3.27%99 posts+3%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Top X posts

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $PHM, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Proven numbersStalledAI verdict · as of 2026-07-26

The move has stalled — likely just drifts unless something new shows up.

PulteGroup just beat Q2 by $0.12 but home closings fell 8% — UBS lifted PT to $166, into 10/20 earnings.

PulteGroup is the third-largest US homebuilder — Pulte, Centex, and Del Webb brands — with strong operating discipline and a diversified geographic footprint. Up 11% over 12 months and 9% YTD, this is a stalled homebuilder navigating the rate-and-affordability drag.

The setup is a well-run cyclical printing above expectations but softening volumes:

  • Q2 was a clean beat: EPS $2.48 beat $2.36 (+5% surprise) with revenue $3.98B (though -9.6% YoY) — the operating margin held at 11% and the last four EPS prints have been mostly positive-surprise, meaning management executes.
  • The volume/pricing squeeze is real: closings fell 8% to under 7,000 homes and average sales price dropped 3% to $544K — the CEO cited 'highly competitive conditions, volatile rates and strained affordability' as the operating backdrop.
  • Sponsorship stayed positive: UBS lifted PT to $166 from $162 (Buy), and the Seeking Alpha 'stable home for real estate investors' framing supports the compounder read — 12.7x TTM earnings with a 5.9% FCF yield is genuinely cheap for a top-tier operator.

At 45% of the 52-week range and near both moving averages, this is stalled with a print-in-hand. Q3 earnings on 10/20 is the next referee — a closings-stabilization or a demand-recovery commentary on rate normalization restarts the trade toward UBS's $166; another quarter of volume compression or a further ASP-decel comment extends the stall through fall.

Agrees with X sentimentX is right on the Q2 EPS beat ($2.48 vs $2.36 est), the UBS PT lift to $166 (Buy), and the -8% closings context on volatile rates. The 'surprisingly strong print still cannot sustain a bid' framing is honest — this is what happens when volumes are the real problem, not margins.

What to watch: 10/20 Q3 earnings — a closings-stabilization or a demand-recovery commentary on rate normalization restarts the trade toward UBS's $166; another quarter of volume compression or ASP-decel comment extends the stall.

On the calendar: 2026-10-20 — Q3 earnings

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Mixed sentiment6 posts analyzed · as of 2026-07-25

PulteGroup beats Q2 EPS by $0.12 at $2.48 and UBS lifts its target to $166 from $162 with a Buy, yet closings fell 8% to under 7,000 homes and the average sales price dropped 3% to $544,000. The CEO cites highly competitive conditions, volatile rates and strained affordability. Posters note the surprisingly strong print still cannot sustain a bid.

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  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

PulteGroup, Inc. engages in the homebuilding business. The firm is also involved in mortgage banking and title and insurance brokerage operations. It operates through the Homebuilding and Financial services business segments. The Homebuilding segment includes operations from Connecticut, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Ohio, Texas, Arizona, California, Nevada, New Mexico, and Washington. The Financial Services segment is composed of mortgage banking and title operations. The company was founded by William J. Pulte in 1950 and is headquartered in Atlanta, GA.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Residential Construction sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $PHM.

Residential Construction · Consumer Cyclical

No material change from last week — Affordability compression at 7%+ mortgage rates is the structural headwind, but Lennar's Q2 beat on cost discipline confirms builders can maintain earnings..

Top industry ETF

$ITBiShares U.S. Home Construction ETF
+0.4%YTD
-2.7%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
12.7How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
121%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
14.6%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
5.9%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
1.4Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
19.7%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
24.5%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.2Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Jul 22, 2026$2.48$2.36+5.1%
Q1 2026Apr 23, 2026$1.79$1.81-1.1%
Q4 2025Jan 29, 2026$2.58$2.81-8.2%
Q3 2025Oct 21, 2025$2.96$2.89+2.4%
Next earningsTue, Oct 20·consensus EPS $2.66

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q2 FY26$4.0B-9.6%20.7%11.1%$2.46$-13K
Q1 FY26$3.4B-12.4%24.1%12.9%$1.81$134K
Q4 FY25$4.6B-6.3%24.8%16.3%$2.58$739.8M
Q3 FY25$4.4B-1.6%27.8%17.3%$2.98$651.1M

Forward consensus

3-year forecast · up to 9 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$16.4B$16.3B – $16.6B$10.13$9.77 – $10.479
FY27$17.1B$16.8B – $17.7B$11.21$10.87 – $11.649
FY28$18.3B$17.9B – $19.3B$13.11$12.85 – $13.374

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.1.4×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.45%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.+1.3%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.+0.5%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellMay 27Koart Matthew WilliamCOO7.5K sh$895KSellMay 8Lila SnyderDirector3.3K sh$391KSellFeb 24Kevin A HenryEVP and Chief People Officer5.2K sh$730KSellFeb 6Koart Matthew WilliamCOO15.3K sh$2.1MSellFeb 6Todd N SheldonEVP, Gen Counsel, Corp Sec'y14.2K sh$1.9MSellFeb 6Brien P. O'mearaPresident4.0K sh$542KSellFeb 5Ryan MarshallPresident111.3K sh$14.9MSellFeb 5Thomas J FolliardDirector37.0K sh$5.0M
+ 33 other (18 awards · 14 inkinds · 1 gift) in window

See when $PHM insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

3New insider — initial holdingsMay 13
8-KShareholder voteMay 18-K — Item 5.07: Shareholder vote
8-KMaterial agreementFeb 208-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement
3New insider — initial holdingsFeb 123
424B5Prospectus supplement (offering)Feb 11424B5
424B5Prospectus supplement (offering)Feb 10424B5
8-KOfficer or director changeFeb 98-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change
S-3ASRAuto-shelf registrationFeb 5S-3ASR
+ 14 other (3 13Gs · 2 10-Qs · 2 earnings 8-Ks · 2 proxys) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Brokerages Set PulteGroup, Inc. (NYSE:PHM) Price Target at $142.21defenseworld.net·1d agoPulteGroup Offers A Stable Home For Real Estate Investorsseekingalpha.com·2d agoHow PulteGroup Is Balancing Orders, Inventory and Margin Pressurezacks.com·3d agoIs PHM Stock Attractive After Its Q2 Earnings Beat and Margin Slide?zacks.com·3d agoPulteGroup, Inc. (PHM) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcriptseekingalpha.com·4d ago

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