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TOTOL

Toll Brothers, Inc.

$TOL·$13B·Residential Construction·Consumer Cyclical
$133.70-0.2%YTD+1.0%1Y-0.3%
Price updated 21m ago·X counts updated 5d ago
TOTOL
$TOLToll Brothers, Inc.
$133.70-0.18%38 posts1×
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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On X

The complete picture of $TOL on X — how loud the conversation is right now, how it has trended over the last two weeks, and which way the crowd is leaning.

38X posts · last 7 days
Sep 28Oct 11
Chatter Meter
1×
QuietNormal · 1×Loud

How loud $TOL's conversation on X is versus its own normal — 1× is typical, higher means busier. Right now it's about its usual level.

Bullish sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data7 posts analyzed · as of 2026-06-16

Toll Brothers earns a KBW upgrade to Market Outperform as housing-sector commentary turns marginally less horrendous and posters describe the homebuilder bottom as in. Real estate is described as a bright spot in an otherwise tough tape, with technicians laying out key levels alongside LEN, PHM, DHI, and SDHC. A residual luxury-community sell-down at University Park, Palm Desert frames the operational backdrop.

Read what X is saying about $TOL

  • Bullish vs bearish call — with the AI summary of the day's posts
  • Divergence flag when the top-engagement posts argue the other side
  • How loud the conversation is versus this ticker's own normal
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AI verdictAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

TickerTalks' own read on what's driving $TOL — fundamentals, momentum, or an event — and whether it agrees with the X crowd.

Proven numbersWinding up for a moveAI verdict · as of 2026-10-02

Trading in a tight range and building pressure — a move looks likely soon, but the direction isn't clear yet.

Toll Brothers just got a KBW upgrade — bulls say the homebuilder bottom is in, LEN/PHM/DHI/SDHC are the cohort.

Toll Brothers is the luxury-homebuilder — single-family homes concentrated in high-end markets like Palm Desert and other established luxury communities. The business is cyclical.

  • Operations are modest: Q1 revenue -7.6% YoY at a 14.6% operating margin and ROIC of 10.6% — top-decile homebuilder metrics, with PE 10.2x reflecting cycle discount.
  • The sell-side signal is specific: KBW upgraded to Market Outperform as housing-sector commentary turns marginally less horrendous — a dated upgrade tying into the broader LEN / PHM / DHI / SDHC homebuilder-bottom thesis.
  • 52-week range position is 29% with vol at the 30-day average — lower-mid range on normal volume, consolidating ahead of Dec 14 earnings.

Dec 14 Q4 is the gate — any new-order stabilization plus luxury-community sell-down update extends the stock off the floor. A cancellation-rate spike or affordability-driven luxury softness and the stock stays range-bound.

Agrees with X sentimentThe thread has substantive drivers — KBW upgrade to Market Outperform, 'homebuilder bottom is in' framing with LEN/PHM/DHI/SDHC cohort, University Park Palm Desert sell-down as the specific operational signal — all grounded.

What to watch: Dec 14 Q4 — new-order rate, cancellation rate, operating-margin trajectory, luxury-community sell-down, and FY27 guide. A cancellation-rate spike is the clear invalidator.

On the calendar: 2026-12-14 — Q4 earnings

Read the AI verdict on $TOL

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • Whether TickerTalks' read agrees with or diverges from the X crowd
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Builds luxury single-family homes and active-adult communities in affluent US suburbs; America's largest luxury homebuilder.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Residential Construction sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $TOL.

Residential Construction · Consumer Cyclical

No material change from last week — Mortgage rates pushing back above 7% are crystallizing into actual earnings misses — Lennar's Q3 miss signals the rate headwind is no longer just a sentiment risk.

What this means for $TOL

Neutral — Builds luxury single-family homes and active-adult communities in affluent US suburbs; America's largest luxury homebuilder.

Top industry ETF

$ITBiShares U.S. Home Construction ETF
-12.5%YTD
-16.1%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
10.2How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
10.6%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
14.6%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
9.4%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
1.2Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
15.5%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
24.9%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.3Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Aug 18, 2026$2.97$2.93+1.4%
Q1 2026May 19, 2026$2.72$2.58+5.4%
Q4 2025Feb 17, 2026$2.19$2.05+6.8%
Q3 2025Dec 8, 2025$4.58$4.88-6.1%
Next earningsMon, Dec 14·consensus EPS $4.89

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q2 FY26$2.5B-7.6%23.9%13.7%$2.74$110.0M
Q1 FY26$2.1B+15.4%22.8%10.2%$2.20$-11.6M
Q4 FY25$3.4B+2.7%26.0%16.5%$4.62$772.2M
Q3 FY25$2.9B+8.0%26.0%16.6%$3.76$344.9M

Forward consensus

3-year forecast · up to 11 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$10.8B$10.8B – $10.8B$12.73$12.49 – $13.3211
FY27$11.0B$10.5B – $11.4B$13.94$13.57 – $14.3211
FY28$11.9B$11.3B – $12.6B$15.78$15.04 – $16.416

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.1.1×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.24%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.-4.4%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.-7.1%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatMid float · 91.4M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today1.3% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β1.305-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellSep 24Stephen F. EastDirector800 sh$109KSellJun 18Robert ParahusCOO7.5K sh$1.1MSellJun 18Douglas C. YearleyChair78.0K sh$12.2M
+ 1 other (1 exempt) in window

See when $TOL insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

3New insider — initial holdingsJul 13
AI summary

Seth J. Ring, President and COO of Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL), filed a Form 3 on June 30, 2026 disclosing initial beneficial ownership of 4,796 shares of Common Stock held directly plus restricted stock units covering approximately 79,983 shares across multiple tranches with vesting dates ranging through 2029. This is a routine initial officer ownership disclosure required upon appointment and carries no operational significance.

8-KOfficer or director changeMay 138-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change · Item 8.01: Other event
AI summary

Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL) filed an 8-K on May 12, 2026 (event date May 12, 2026) reporting a personnel change (Item 5.02) and an other-event disclosure (Item 8.01), separate from its May 19 earnings filing. Toll Brothers is a Fort Washington, Pennsylvania-based luxury homebuilder. An executive change at Toll Brothers is noteworthy; the concurrent Item 8.01 suggests an accompanying business announcement, which may relate to a strategic decision connected to the personnel change.

+ 6 other (2 13Gs · 2 10-Qs · 2 earnings 8-Ks) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Toll Brothers Announces New Luxury Home Community Coming Soon to Franklin, Tennesseeglobenewswire.com·1d agoWedgewood Partners Q3 2026 Portfolio Activityseekingalpha.com·2d agoToll Brothers and Brookfield Residential Announce New Master-Planned Community Coming Soon to Covington, Washingtonglobenewswire.com·2d agoToll Brothers Announces New Luxury Home Community Coming Soon to Saint Cloud, Floridaglobenewswire.com·2d agoToll Brothers Announces Model Home Grand Opening at Toll Brothers at Flat Creek in Castroville, Texasglobenewswire.com·3d ago

More in Residential Construction

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Voices on X · last 7 days

No standout posts about $TOL on X in the last 7 days.

TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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