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TOTOL

Toll Brothers, Inc.

$TOL·$14B·Residential Construction·Consumer Cyclical
$146.20+0.7%YTD+13.3%1Y+5.3%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-08-19: 49 posts2026-08-20: 13 posts2026-08-21: 4 posts2026-08-22: 4 posts2026-08-23: 0 posts201-2%
Price updated 8h ago·X counts updated 5d ago
TOTOL
$TOLToll Brothers, Inc.
$146.20+0.74%201 posts-2%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $TOL, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Proven numbersStalledAI verdict · as of 2026-08-29

The move has stalled — likely just drifts unless something new shows up.

Luxury homebuilder at 10x earnings with strong FCF — the housing cycle debate is playing out slowly.

Toll Brothers is the largest US luxury homebuilder, focused on high-price-point detached and attached homes in the coastal metros and select interior markets. The stock is up modestly YTD as the housing cycle stops getting worse but hasn't yet turned into a sustained recovery.

What's actually here:

  • Revenue is choppy but resilient — Q2 fiscal 2026 of $2.53B declined 7.6% YoY on top of 15.4%, 2.7%, and 8.0% in prior quarters; the sequential unevenness reflects timing of luxury-community deliveries more than fundamental demand shifts.
  • The economics are strong — 15% operating margin, 25% gross margin, 9.4% FCF yield, and $110M of Q2 free cash flow mean this is a real profit-generating business; ROIC of 10.6% with modest leverage (D/E 0.34) is a durable balance sheet.
  • The valuation is very reasonable — 10x trailing P/E and 8.3x EV/EBITDA on a business generating meaningful FCF; consensus FY27 EPS of $14.15 puts forward P/E at ~10x, meaning the market is pricing zero further growth despite recent community-opening pipeline additions.
  • The insider signal is neutral — no insider events disclosed in the last month; a KBW upgrade to Market Outperform is the sell-side data point, plus multiple new community announcements (Georgia, Dallas, California, Las Vegas) suggest the operational cadence is intact.

The forward path is that FQ4 earnings on Dec 14 delivering another EPS beat with backlog commentary confirming the demand pipeline holds anchors the multiple; without a mortgage-rate move, the story stays in this quiet drift. The bear case is a mortgage-rate re-acceleration that specifically hurts the affordability of the luxury price point Toll targets — that's the specific rate-sensitivity the model doesn't fully price at current levels.

Agrees with X sentimentThe bullish X read on the KBW upgrade and 'housing bottom is in' framing is directionally supported by the FCF and multiple, though the top-line remains choppy; the setup is a cheap-compounder wait, not an accelerating story.

What to watch: FQ4 earnings on Dec 14 — specifically new-community backlog and any FY27 delivery guide. Also any Fed-related mortgage-rate move affects luxury affordability more than starter-home builders.

On the calendar: 2026-12-14 — FQ4 2026 earnings

housing cycle debatecheap multiple

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Bullish sentiment7 posts analyzed · as of 2026-06-16

Toll Brothers earns a KBW upgrade to Market Outperform as housing-sector commentary turns marginally less horrendous and posters describe the homebuilder bottom as in. Real estate is described as a bright spot in an otherwise tough tape, with technicians laying out key levels alongside LEN, PHM, DHI, and SDHC. A residual luxury-community sell-down at University Park, Palm Desert frames the operational backdrop.

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $TOL

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Builds luxury single-family homes and active-adult communities in affluent US suburbs; America's largest luxury homebuilder.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Residential Construction sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $TOL.

Residential Construction · Consumer Cyclical

No material change from last week — Affordability compression at 7%+ mortgage rates is the structural headwind, but Lennar's Q2 beat on cost discipline confirms builders can maintain earnings..

What this means for $TOL

Neutral — Builds luxury single-family homes and active-adult communities in affluent US suburbs; America's largest luxury homebuilder; limited read-through from residential construction macro dynamics to this specific revenue mix.

Top industry ETF

$ITBiShares U.S. Home Construction ETF
+2.9%YTD
-12.9%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
10.2How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
10.6%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
14.6%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
9.4%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
1.2Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
15.5%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
24.9%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.3Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Aug 18, 2026$2.97$2.93+1.4%
Q1 2026May 19, 2026$2.72$2.58+5.4%
Q4 2025Feb 17, 2026$2.19$2.05+6.8%
Q3 2025Dec 8, 2025$4.58$4.88-6.1%
Next earningsMon, Dec 14·consensus EPS $4.89

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q2 FY26$2.5B-7.6%23.9%13.7%$2.74$110.0M
Q1 FY26$2.1B+15.4%22.8%10.2%$2.20$-11.6M
Q4 FY25$3.4B+2.7%26.0%16.5%$4.62$772.2M
Q3 FY25$2.9B+8.0%26.0%16.6%$3.76$344.9M

Forward consensus

3-year forecast · up to 11 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$10.8B$10.5B – $10.9B$12.80$12.66 – $12.9311
FY27$11.0B$10.5B – $11.5B$14.15$13.49 – $14.5411
FY28$11.8B$11.7B – $11.9B$16.04$15.33 – $16.515

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.9×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.51%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.-3.5%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.+1.4%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatMid float · 92.7M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today0.9% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β1.345-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellJun 18Robert ParahusCOO7.5K sh$1.1MSellJun 18Douglas C. YearleyChair78.0K sh$12.2MSellApr 15Stephen F. EastDirector1.0K sh$140KSellMar 4John A McleanDirector2.3K sh$355K
+ 2 other (2 exempts) in window

See when $TOL insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
Free, forever. No credit card.

SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

3New insider — initial holdingsJul 13
AI summary

Seth J. Ring, President and COO of Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL), filed a Form 3 on June 30, 2026 disclosing initial beneficial ownership of 4,796 shares of Common Stock held directly plus restricted stock units covering approximately 79,983 shares across multiple tranches with vesting dates ranging through 2029. This is a routine initial officer ownership disclosure required upon appointment and carries no operational significance.

8-KOfficer or director changeMay 138-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change · Item 8.01: Other event
AI summary

Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL) filed an 8-K on May 12, 2026 (event date May 12, 2026) reporting a personnel change (Item 5.02) and an other-event disclosure (Item 8.01), separate from its May 19 earnings filing. Toll Brothers is a Fort Washington, Pennsylvania-based luxury homebuilder. An executive change at Toll Brothers is noteworthy; the concurrent Item 8.01 suggests an accompanying business announcement, which may relate to a strategic decision connected to the personnel change.

3New insider — initial holdingsMar 313
AI summary

Karl K. Mistry, newly appointed CEO and Director of Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL), filed Form 3 as of March 30, 2026, disclosing initial beneficial ownership. He directly owns 162 shares of Common Stock acquired under the Employee Stock Purchase Plan. He holds RSUs covering approximately 79,935 shares across five tranches, vesting between 2026 and 2029, including a 53,100-share CEO transition grant with 50% vesting in March 2026 and the remainder in March 2027. This is a routine administrative disclosure for the incoming CEO, with RSU grants reflecting standard long-term incentive compensation.

8-KOfficer or director changeMar 318-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change
AI summary

Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL) completed a previously announced CEO succession on March 30, 2026, with Karl K. Mistry appointed CEO and added as a Director, succeeding Douglas C. Yearley, Jr., who transitioned to Executive Chairman. The Board was expanded from 9 to 10 members to accommodate Mistry's directorship, with a term expiring at the 2027 annual meeting. No related-party arrangements or committee assignments were disclosed. This is an administratively significant change completing a planned CEO transition at one of the largest U.S. homebuilders.

8-KShareholder voteMar 118-K — Item 5.07: Shareholder vote
+ 5 other (2 earnings 8-Ks · 2 13Gs · 1 10-Q) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Toll Brothers Announces Model Home Now Available for Sale at Northbrooke in Cumming, Georgiaglobenewswire.com·2d agoToll Brothers Announces New Luxury Home Community Coming Soon to Horizon Lakes Master Plan Near Dallas, Texasglobenewswire.com·2d agoToll Brothers Announces New Luxury Home Community Coming Soon to Bickford Ranch in Placer County, Californiaglobenewswire.com·2d agoToll Brothers Announces New Luxury Home Community Coming Soon to Las Vegas, Nevadaglobenewswire.com·3d agoCrestmoor Estates by Toll Brothers is Now Open in San Bruno, Californiaglobenewswire.com·3d ago

More in Residential Construction

Peers in the same group — one click to compare setups, fundamentals, and chatter.

$SKY$DHI$LEN$KBH$PHM$DFH$BZH$LEGH
Voices on X · last 7 days

No standout posts about $TOL on X in the last 7 days.

TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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