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PGPGY

Pagaya Technologies Ltd.

$PGY·$1.8B·Software - Infrastructure·Technology
$21.74-1.1%YTD+1.9%1Y-40.2%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-08-22: 16 posts113+16%
Price updated 6h ago·X counts updated 9d ago
PGPGY
$PGYPagaya Technologies Ltd.
$21.74-1.09%113 posts+16%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Top X posts

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $PGY, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Proven numbersWinding up for a moveAI verdict · as of 2026-08-30

Trading in a tight range and building pressure — a move looks likely soon, but the direction isn't clear yet.

AI-driven credit-underwriting platform trading at 5x forward earnings — the tape is finally noticing.

Pagaya Technologies is an Israeli fintech that uses AI to underwrite loans across partner networks (banks, auto lenders, and personal-loan issuers), then packages the resulting risk into ABS. Shares are flat YTD but -42% TTM at $22.

  • Revenue and EPS are compounding: quarterly revenue ran $318M / $340M / $321M / $318M, gross margin at 41%, quarterly EPS moved $0.20 / $0.27 / $0.42 / $0.28 — analysts model $1.46B and $1.49 EPS for the full year, so at $22 the stock is at roughly 15x forward on GAAP EPS and much cheaper on adjusted metrics.
  • The GAAP-profitable streak is unusually clean: six straight GAAP-profitable quarters and triple-digit net-income growth — that's the kind of consistency that changes how the sell-side models a fintech, especially one that had been priced for a going-concern skepticism during the credit-cycle scare.
  • The RPM 2026 X1 ABS deal extends the model: RPM 2026 X1 with XS1/XS2 excess-spread tranches shows the sell-side capital markets are willing to structure Pagaya's paper in more sophisticated ways — that widens the funding capacity and reduces the equity-raise risk.

A Nov 9 print that shows network volume acceleration and continued GAAP EPS growth extends the coil into a real breakout toward analyst-consensus upside; a soft network-volume print, a credit-quality deterioration, or an ABS spread widening is what invalidates the setup.

Agrees with X sentimentX's bullish framing tracks the mechanics — the six-quarter GAAP profitability streak, the RPM 2026 X1 ABS deal, and the 5x forward EPS framing are all real; the AI-trading-portfolio flow is honest color, not a fundamental case.

What to watch: The Nov 9 Q3 print — network volume, revenue growth, credit-quality metrics, and any ABS pricing color. A credit-quality deterioration is what invalidates the setup.

On the calendar: 2026-11-09 — Q3 earnings

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Bullish sentiment13 posts analyzed · as of 2026-08-30

The mood is confidently bullish on Pagaya — bulls frame it as an AI credit-underwriting name with a real data moat, cite six consecutive GAAP profitable quarters, 19% top-line growth, 33% network-volume growth, and the pivot out of Single Family Rentals into Auto (network volume +140% YoY, connected to 30,000 dealerships, ~40% of the market). The new RPM 2026 X1 ABS with XS1/XS2 excess-spread tranches is read as a capital-efficiency step. Replies still call it undervalued at 5x forward earnings.

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $PGY

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  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Uses proprietary AI to help fintech and bank partners approve more consumer loan applications by expanding credit access.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Software - Infrastructure sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $PGY.

Software - Infrastructure · Technology

SaaS multiples remain compressed as rate-sensitive valuations weigh on pure-play software; customers are lengthening deal cycles outside of AI-native workloads. AI co-pilot upsell is the only clear near-term catalyst — companies without it are treading water.

What this means for $PGY

Direct beneficiary — AI-native product or platform captures spend from the same capex cycle driving the industry; Uses proprietary AI to help fintech and bank partners approve more consumer loan applications by expanding credit access.

Top industry ETF

$IGViShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF
-4.2%YTD
+2.5%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
13.1How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
17.9%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
21.8%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
19.4%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
0.9Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
21.6%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
41.4%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
1.8Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Jul 30, 2026$0.49$0.32+52.1%
Q1 2026May 7, 2026$0.29$0.32-9.4%
Q4 2025Feb 9, 2026$0.36$0.34+5.2%
Q3 2025Nov 10, 2025$0.23$0.21+8.8%
Next earningsMon, Nov 9·consensus EPS $0.97

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$317.9M+12.5%44.2%25.2%$0.28$40.0M
Q4 FY25$321.0M+16.5%40.8%20.5%$0.42$76.7M
Q3 FY25$339.9M+36.3%41.0%23.5%$0.27$63.8M
Q2 FY25$317.7M+31.0%39.7%17.8%$0.20$53.5M

Forward consensus

3-year forecast · up to 7 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$1.5B$1.4B – $1.5B$1.49$1.42 – $1.567
FY27$1.7B$1.7B – $1.7B$1.98$1.89 – $2.086
FY28$1.9B$1.8B – $1.9B$2.80$2.68 – $2.942

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.6×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.33%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.+14.6%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.+25.4%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatLow float · 48.0M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today3.3% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellAug 3Tami RosenDirector28.2K sh$619KSellAug 3Sanjiv DasPresident21.3K sh$468KSellJun 25Cory VieiraChief Accounting Officer1.5K sh$23KSellJun 25Sanjiv DasPresident14.0K sh$222KBuyJun 24Gal KrubinerCEO16.2K sh$250KSellJun 22Tami RosenDirector9.9K sh$151KSellJun 12Sanjiv DasPresident13.3K sh$216KSellJun 12Tami RosenDirector5.7K sh$92KSellJun 12Evangelos PerrosFormer Officer11.6K sh$188KSellJun 2Cory VieiraChief Accounting Officer2.1K sh$32K
1–10 of 15
+ 18 other (10 exempts · 8 awards) in window

See when $PGY insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

8-KShareholder voteAug 188-K — Item 5.07: Shareholder vote
8-KPress release / Reg FDJul 308-K — Item 2.02: Earnings release · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
AI summary

Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (Israel-incorporated fintech, Nasdaq: PGY) reported Q2 2026 financial results and released a shareholder letter on July 30, 2026 (signed by CEO Gal Krubiner). The press release (Exhibit 99.1) and shareholder letter (Exhibit 99.2) contain specific network volume, fee revenue, and EBITDA data; the filing body does not reproduce them. This is the routine quarterly earnings disclosure for the AI-driven consumer lending network platform.

3New insider — initial holdingsJun 163
AI summary

Jonathan Dobres, the newly-appointed CFO of Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (PGY), filed an initial Form 3 on June 16, 2026 reporting direct ownership of 6,309 Class A Ordinary Shares. He also holds 3,375 RSUs (March 2025 grant) and 8,929 RSUs (April 2026 grant) vesting quarterly, plus 3,893 vested but unexercised stock options at $10.68 expiring August 2031. Administrative initial ownership statement confirming the new CFO's starting equity position; no economic signal.

8-KOfficer or director changeMay 78-K — Item 2.02: Earnings release · Item 5.02: Officer or director change · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
AI summary

PGY reported period ending 2026-05-07 financial results (8-K Item 2.02). Investors should review the full earnings press release and any management guidance for forward outlook.

+ 8 other (2 10-Qs · 2 proxys · 2 10-Ks · 1 ARS) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

PGY Shares Surge 93.8% in 6 Months: Should You Buy It Now?zacks.com·14h agoHere's Why Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (PGY) is a Strong Growth Stockzacks.com·5d agoWall Street Analysts See a 30.86% Upside in Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (PGY): Can the Stock Really Move This High?zacks.com·6d agoCan Network Volume Strength Keep PGY's Top-Line Growth on Track?zacks.com·13d agoPagaya Technologies: A Fast-Growing Industry Disruptor Trading At A P/E Of 6.6xseekingalpha.com·13d ago

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Voices on X · top 9 · last 7 days

TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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