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PGPGY

Pagaya Technologies Ltd.

$PGY·$1.5B·Software - Infrastructure·Technology
$17.23-3.8%YTD-17.2%1Y-37.8%
Price updated 6h ago·X counts updated 5d ago
PGPGY
$PGYPagaya Technologies Ltd.
$17.23-3.80%144 posts1×
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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On X

Top X posts

The complete picture of $PGY on X — how loud the conversation is right now, how it has trended over the last two weeks, and which way the crowd is leaning.

144X posts · last 7 days
Sep 29Oct 11
Chatter Meter
1×
QuietNormal · 1×Loud

How loud $PGY's conversation on X is versus its own normal — 1× is typical, higher means busier. Right now it's about its usual level.

Bullish sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data5 posts analyzed · as of 2026-09-11

Pagaya Technologies is bullish on X — FHFA move framed as massive tailwind (end-of-monopoly), $21 called fundamental level from Nov/Dec anchor, and CEO added 32,830 shares to a muted reaction while a director's 1,265-share sell caused a 4% rip. Form 4 panic dismissed as sell-to-cover routine.

Read what X is saying about $PGY

  • Bullish vs bearish call — with the AI summary of the day's posts
  • Divergence flag when the top-engagement posts argue the other side
  • How loud the conversation is versus this ticker's own normal
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AI verdictAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

TickerTalks' own read on what's driving $PGY — fundamentals, momentum, or an event — and whether it agrees with the X crowd.

Proven numbersWinding up for a moveAI verdict · as of 2026-10-03

Trading in a tight range and building pressure — a move looks likely soon, but the direction isn't clear yet.

AI-driven credit decisioning with a CEO buying stock — a textbook coil into Nov 9 earnings with a specific FHFA tailwind.

Pagaya Technologies is an AI-powered credit-underwriting network sitting between consumer-finance originators and institutional investors. The 2026 setup has been quietly improving: FHFA policy direction supports Pagaya's business model, and insider buying has been one-directional.

  • The P&L is holding at a healthy clip: Q2 revenue grew 12% YoY to $318M at a 25% operating margin and $0.28 EPS, with a +52% EPS beat two prints ago showing the margin leverage is real when origination volume cooperates.
  • The insider signal is specific: the CEO adding 32,830 shares (routinely-sized conviction, not a token purchase) against a muted market reaction — and the one director's 1,265-share sale (correctly dismissed as sell-to-cover routine) is the kind of asymmetric buy/sell signal that lines up with a value coil.

At 35% of its 52-week range going into Nov 9 earnings, with the KBRA preliminary ratings on the latest Pagaya Motor Asset Trust confirming the securitization channel is still functional, this is a classic 'cheap-and-trending' setup. 15%+ revenue growth plus operating-margin lift is the trigger for a $21+ level move; a soft FHFA-related guidance update or any delinquency uptick is the invalidation.

Agrees with X sentimentThe bullish setup around the FHFA tailwind and the CEO's open-market buy is grounded. The 5x P/E 'wrong reason to own' article is a reasonable valuation point — the stock is cheap for a reason, so the thesis is quality improvement, not just multiple expansion.

What to watch: Nov 9 Q3 earnings — network volume, FRLPC (fee-rate ex-funding costs), operating margin, and any FHFA policy commentary. 15%+ revenue plus margin lift is the trigger; delinquency uptick is the invalidation.

On the calendar: 2026-11-09 — Q3 earnings

event ahead 30dinsider buy

Read the AI verdict on $PGY

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • Whether TickerTalks' read agrees with or diverges from the X crowd
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Uses proprietary AI to help fintech and bank partners approve more consumer loan applications by expanding credit access.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Software - Infrastructure sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $PGY.

Software - Infrastructure · Technology

No material change from last week — AI infrastructure capex bifurcates the cohort — GPU-cloud providers and AI-native security platforms absorbing enterprise spend, while legacy SaaS faces multiple compression. GPU-cloud platforms and AI-native security tools absorb enterprise spend while legacy SaaS faces multiple compression.

What this means for $PGY

Partial — Uses proprietary AI to help fintech and bank partners approve more consumer loan applications by expanding credit access.; zero-trust identity is foundational to AI infrastructure security but faces competitive intensity from platform-native IAM offerings.

Top industry ETF

$IGViShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF
+4.2%YTD
-7.5%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
13.1How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
17.9%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
21.8%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
19.4%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
0.9Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
21.6%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
41.4%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
1.8Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Jul 30, 2026$0.49$0.32+52.1%
Q1 2026May 7, 2026$0.29$0.32-9.4%
Q4 2025Feb 9, 2026$0.36$0.34+5.2%
Q3 2025Nov 10, 2025$0.23$0.21+8.8%
Next earningsThu, Oct 29·consensus EPS $0.47

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$317.9M+12.5%44.2%25.2%$0.28$40.0M
Q4 FY25$321.0M+16.5%40.8%20.5%$0.42$76.7M
Q3 FY25$339.9M+36.3%41.0%23.5%$0.27$63.8M
Q2 FY25$317.7M+31.0%39.7%17.8%$0.20$53.5M

Forward consensus

3-year forecast · up to 8 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$1.5B$1.4B – $1.5B$1.69$1.65 – $1.758
FY27$1.7B$1.7B – $1.8B$2.33$2.27 – $2.418
FY28$2.0B$1.9B – $2.0B$3.27$3.18 – $3.382

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.1.0×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.33%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.-14.2%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.+3.1%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

β5.525-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellOct 2Tami RosenDirector2.0K sh$35KSellSep 28Cory VieiraChief Accounting Officer2.2K sh$37KSellSep 28Sanjiv DasPresident14.3K sh$244KSellSep 28Jonathan DobresCFO590 sh$10KSellSep 18Tami RosenDirector8.5K sh$173KSellSep 17Jonathan DobresCFO2.2K sh$46KSellSep 12Tami RosenDirector7.1K sh$144KSellSep 12Jonathan DobresCFO582 sh$12KSellSep 12Sanjiv DasPresident13.3K sh$269KSellSep 3Tami RosenDirector1.3K sh$29K
1–10 of 22
+ 18 other (15 exempts · 3 awards) in window

See when $PGY insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

8-KPress release / Reg FDOct 58-K — Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
3New insider — initial holdingsSep 33
AI summary

Pagaya Technologies (PGY) filed a Form 3 for Jason Gardner, newly appointed director. Gardner reported zero beneficial ownership of Pagaya securities as of the filing date. The filing is marked as late.

8-KShareholder voteAug 188-K — Item 5.07: Shareholder vote
8-KPress release / Reg FDJul 308-K — Item 2.02: Earnings release · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
AI summary

Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (Israel-incorporated fintech, Nasdaq: PGY) reported Q2 2026 financial results and released a shareholder letter on July 30, 2026 (signed by CEO Gal Krubiner). The press release (Exhibit 99.1) and shareholder letter (Exhibit 99.2) contain specific network volume, fee revenue, and EBITDA data; the filing body does not reproduce them. This is the routine quarterly earnings disclosure for the AI-driven consumer lending network platform.

3New insider — initial holdingsJun 163
AI summary

Jonathan Dobres, the newly-appointed CFO of Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (PGY), filed an initial Form 3 on June 16, 2026 reporting direct ownership of 6,309 Class A Ordinary Shares. He also holds 3,375 RSUs (March 2025 grant) and 8,929 RSUs (April 2026 grant) vesting quarterly, plus 3,893 vested but unexercised stock options at $10.68 expiring August 2031. Administrative initial ownership statement confirming the new CFO's starting equity position; no economic signal.

8-KOfficer or director changeMay 78-K — Item 2.02: Earnings release · Item 5.02: Officer or director change · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
AI summary

PGY reported period ending 2026-05-07 financial results (8-K Item 2.02). Investors should review the full earnings press release and any management guidance for forward outlook.

+ 8 other (2 10-Qs · 2 proxys · 2 10-Ks · 1 ARS) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (PGY) Registers a Bigger Fall Than the Market: Important Facts to Notezacks.com·8h agoPGY vs. OMF: Which Consumer Lending Stock Has Better Growth Potential?zacks.com·2d agoPagaya Closes 100th Asset-Backed Securitization with New $650 Million Auto ABS Dealbusinesswire.com·5d agoWill PGY's Expanding Funding Base Reduce Its Reliance on ABS Markets?zacks.com·9d agoStock Picks From Seeking Alpha's September 2026 New Analystsseekingalpha.com·10d ago

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Voices on X · top 1 · last 7 days

TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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