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PBPBR

Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras

$PBR·$116B·Oil & Gas Integrated·Energy
$19.00+0.6%YTD+59.9%1Y+50.2%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-07-17: 170 posts2026-07-18: 3 posts2026-07-19: 18 posts2026-07-20: 13 posts2026-07-21: 24 posts2026-07-22: 24 posts2026-07-23: 53 posts322+2%
Price updated 14h ago·X counts updated 14h ago
PBPBR
$PBRPetróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras
$19.00+0.58%322 posts+2%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Top X posts

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $PBR, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Proven numbersEvent coming upAI verdict · as of 2026-07-23

A known event soon (earnings, a ruling, etc.) will likely decide the next move.

5x earnings, 14% FCF yield, and a fresh falling-wedge breakout — August 6 earnings decide whether the deep-value setup finally re-rates.

Petrobras is the Brazilian integrated oil major with world-class pre-salt production plus growing African deepwater exposure. The stock is up 59% YTD and lands into August 6 earnings with a genuine value setup that finally has technical confirmation.

  • The economics are outstanding by any measure: Q1 revenue grew 11.7% YoY to $23.5B at a 45% gross margin, 31% operating margin, and $3.26B of free cash flow — for an oil major trading at 5.2x trailing P/E and 4.2x EV/EBITDA, this is one of the deepest value setups in the global energy complex.
  • The FCF yield of 14% is essentially the entire trade: distributed as dividends and buybacks, this compounds meaningfully at current oil prices even without multiple expansion — the political risk premium is what caps the multiple at 5x versus US majors' 10-13x.
  • The deepwater expansion is real: two new FPSOs (floating production units) coming online add material production growth, plus the Block 3 African acquisition extends the offshore footprint — production growth on top of the current cash-flow yield is the durability case.
  • The technical breakout is confirming the fundamentals: falling-wedge break with August $17 calls already closed at +28%, and traders running August $18 calls into the July 28 production report and August 6 financials — momentum-plus-macro is aligned with the value read.

August 6 needs EPS above the $1.25 consensus with clean commentary on FPSO production ramps and dividend guidance. Deliver those and the value trade continues toward $22-24; a production miss or Brazilian-government-driven dividend surprise and the stock re-tests $17 while the FCF yield keeps compounding regardless.

Agrees with X sentimentAgree with the bullish X read. The falling-wedge breakout, the August call activity paying off, and the traders running long August/July calls into the July 28 production and August 6 financials reports all support the technical setup — plus the underlying 14% FCF yield and 5x P/E anchor the deep-value case.

What to watch: August 6 earnings (with July 28 production report) — Q2 EPS vs. $1.25 consensus, FPSO production ramp commentary, Block 3 African integration, and dividend guidance. A clean beat plus firm dividend guidance extends toward $22-24; a production miss or a dividend surprise from Brasília and the stock re-tests $17.

On the calendar: 2026-07-28 — Petrobras Q2 production report; 2026-08-06 financials

beta missing

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Bullish sentiment6 posts analyzed · as of 2026-07-23

Petrobras is drawing constructive positioning after a re-test of a recently broken long-term resistance zone while trading above its two- and seven-year moving averages. Contributors reference the former all-time high sitting 340% above current levels. Geopolitical uncertainty around Iran-U.S. desalination-plant attacks is being cited as a reason to prefer oil and refining exposure outside the Persian Gulf, with PBR one of several names in the basket.

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $PBR

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Brazil's state-controlled oil major dominating deep-water pre-salt exploration and production with integrated refining and gas operations.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Oil & Gas Integrated sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $PBR.

Oil & Gas Integrated · Energy

No material change from last week — sanctions easing would add 1-2 mb/d of Iranian supply, pressuring Brent and compressing integrated margins.

What this means for $PBR

Partial — Brazil's state-controlled oil major dominating deep-water pre-salt exploration and production with integrated refining and gas operations; partial earnings exposure to oil & gas integrated demand dynamics through its product portfolio.

Industry benchmark

7-name peer basket
+39.4%YTD
+39.5%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
5.2How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
8.8%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
27.8%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
14.1%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
1.1Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
26.0%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
46.6%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.8Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q1 2026May 11, 2026$0.96$1.02-5.9%
Q4 2025Mar 5, 2026$0.72$0.57+26.3%
Q3 2025Nov 6, 2025$0.82$0.79+3.8%
Q2 2025Aug 8, 2025$0.64$0.70-8.6%
Next earningsThu, Aug 6·consensus EPS $1.25

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$23.5B+11.7%45.0%31.3%$0.96$3.3B
Q4 FY25$25.2B+21.2%46.1%20.8%$0.52$3.2B
Q3 FY25$23.5B+0.5%47.8%32.9%$0.94$5.0B
Q2 FY25$21.0B-10.4%47.6%26.0%$0.72$3.4B

Forward consensus

5-year forecast · up to 9 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$112.2B$108.2B – $116.1B$3.91$3.43 – $4.249
FY27$109.4B$91.7B – $120.6B$3.64$3.15 – $3.969
FY28$107.3B$87.5B – $124.0B$3.55$2.70 – $4.273
FY29$112.4B$91.7B – $129.9B$4.38$3.33 – $5.264
FY30$114.7B$93.5B – $132.6B$4.68$3.56 – $5.634

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.9×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.70%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.+5.3%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.+18.3%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatMega float · 3.9B shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today0.3% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β-0.145-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

BuyApr 2Laureano Angelica Garcia CobasChief Commercial Officer1.0K sh$9KSellApr 1Laureano Angelica Garcia CobasChief Commercial Officer19 sh$173
+ 5 other (5 returns) in window

See when $PBR insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

SC 13D/AActivist amendmentJul 20SC 13D/A
SC 13D/AActivist amendmentJun 3SC 13D/A
AI summary

BNDES Participacoes S.A. (BNDESpar), the Brazilian state development bank’s investment arm, filed Amendment No. 3 to its SC 13D on June 3, 2026 disclosing a holding of 781,451,745 Petrobras preferred shares (CUSIP 71654V101), representing approximately 14.35% of the preferred share class based on 5,446,501,379 shares outstanding as of March 31, 2026. BNDESpar shares voting and dispositive power with parent BNDES, though both are restricted from voting the preferred shares by a 2014 Brazilian Securities Commission order. The filing reflects an update to the reported ownership position following prior amendments; this is a routine government-entity ownership disclosure with no change in investment intent.

SC 13D/AActivist amendmentMay 21SC 13D/A
AI summary

BNDES Participacoes S.A. (BNDESpar) filed Amendment No. 2 to its SC 13D on May 21, 2026 reporting a holding of 822,557,996 Petrobras preferred shares (CUSIP 71654V101), representing approximately 15.10% of the preferred share class based on 5,446,501,379 shares outstanding as of March 31, 2026. BNDESpar shares voting and dispositive power with parent BNDES; both remain restricted from exercising their voting rights on the preferred shares per the 2014 Brazilian Securities Commission order. Compared to the subsequent Amendment No. 3 (14.35%), this earlier filing shows a higher ownership percentage, indicating that the position was reduced between the two filing dates. This is a routine government-entity ownership disclosure.

3New insider — initial holdingsMay 53
AI summary

Fabio Henrique Bittes Terra filed a Form 3 on May 5, 2026, reporting his initial statement of beneficial ownership as a newly appointed director of Petrobras — Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. (PBR), with an event date of April 27, 2026. The filing discloses no securities beneficially owned. This is a routine Section 16 initial ownership report for a new Petrobras board member — administrative in nature.

3New insider — initial holdingsApr 293
AI summary

Guilherme Santos Mello filed a Form 3 on April 29, 2026, reporting his initial statement of beneficial ownership as a newly appointed director of Petrobras — Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. (PBR), with an event date of April 17, 2026. The filing discloses no securities beneficially owned. This is a routine Section 16 initial ownership report for a new Petrobras board member — administrative in nature.

3New insider — initial holdingsApr 283
AI summary

Rachel de Oliveira Maia filed a Form 3 on April 28, 2026, reporting her initial statement of beneficial ownership as a newly appointed director of Petrobras — Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. (PBR), with an event date of April 24, 2026. The filing discloses no securities beneficially owned. This is a routine Section 16 initial ownership report for a new Petrobras board member — administrative in nature.

3New insider — initial holdingsApr 283
AI summary

Marcelo Gasparino da Silva filed a Form 3 on April 28, 2026, reporting his initial statement of beneficial ownership as a newly appointed director of Petrobras — Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. (PBR), with an event date of April 16, 2026. He directly owns 3,250 Preferred Shares (PBR/A) held as ADRs, each representing two Preferred Shares. This is a routine Section 16 initial ownership report for a new Petrobras board member with a modest personal preferred share position.

3New insider — initial holdingsMar 203
+ 105 other (82 6-Ks · 18 3s · 2 13Gs · 1 25-NSE) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Petrobras Expands Deepwater Operations With Two New FPSOszacks.com·3d agoAI Bubble Risks Make Dividend Stocks Attractive Againseekingalpha.com·6d agoWhy the Market Dipped But Petrobras (PBR) Gained Todayzacks.com·7d agoHow To Build A $50,000 Dividend Portfolio In Today's Marketseekingalpha.com·11d agoPetrobras Completes Block 3 Acquisition, Boosts Africa Strategyzacks.com·11d ago

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