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PBPBR

Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras

$PBR·$130B·Oil & Gas Integrated·Energy
$20.93+0.5%YTD+75.3%1Y+69.7%
Price updated 14h ago·X counts updated 13h ago
PBPBR
$PBRPetróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras
$20.93+0.48%156 posts0.7×
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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On X

Top X posts

The complete picture of $PBR on X — how loud the conversation is right now, how it has trended over the last two weeks, and which way the crowd is leaning.

156X posts · last 7 days
Aug 27Sep 9
Chatter Meter
0.7×
QuietNormal · 1×Loud

How loud $PBR's conversation on X is versus its own normal — 1× is typical, higher means busier. Right now it's quieter than usual.

Bullish sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data15 posts analyzed · as of 2026-09-09

Brent Crude kept pressing higher, and Petrobras just made a proper retest of its 7-year moving average — chartists say "the game is on." Weekly calls on the $21 strike printed a 121% gainer, and $PBR gets stacked with $EQNR, $TTE and $XEG as global-oil-major exposures. The one caution is Brazilian election risk.

Read what X is saying about $PBR

  • Bullish vs bearish call — with the AI summary of the day's posts
  • Divergence flag when the top-engagement posts argue the other side
  • How loud the conversation is versus this ticker's own normal
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AI verdictAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

TickerTalks' own read on what's driving $PBR — fundamentals, momentum, or an event — and whether it agrees with the X crowd.

Proven numbersAcceleratingAI verdict · as of 2026-09-09

The move is getting stronger, with heavier trading behind it.

Petrobras is 87% of its 52-week range on a 14% FCF yield and a 5x P/E — cheap even in the context of oil majors, and BNDES just added on top.

Petrobras is Brazil's state-controlled oil major and one of the largest integrated oil producers in the emerging-market space. The stock has run 75% year-to-date because the fundamentals are unusually strong for a name at 5x earnings — a valuation not seen outside genuine distress in developed markets.

  • The cash math is the story: Q1 revenue of $23.5B was up 12% YoY at a 31% operating margin and a 14% free-cash-flow yield — those are numbers you'd expect from a smaller pure-play, not from a $130B integrated major with pre-salt reserves.
  • BNDES Participacoes' recent SC 13D/A confirms an active 13.41% Brazilian state-affiliated stake — this is politically-anchored ownership that supports the dividend policy, which is why the equity has behaved defensively (beta -0.22) even as oil has rallied.
  • Rich Q4 dividend potential is the underrated near-term catalyst: Petrobras has a history of paying extraordinary dividends when cash generation runs above plan, and the current FCF run-rate more than supports the historical pattern.

If oil stays firm through the Sep 16 FOMC and Q3 earnings on Nov 10 confirms cost discipline plus regular-plus-extraordinary dividend commentary, the 87%-of-52-week-range positioning holds. An oil-price rollover or a Brazilian political intervention that changes the dividend policy is what would end the leg.

Agrees with X sentimentAgree with the bullish X read — the 'great financials, killer technicals, stable share count' framing and the MPC/Glencore comparison basket is directionally correct, and PBR at 5x earnings with 14% FCF yield does support the diesel/coal 'easy win' framing. Where I'd add: the Brazilian political overhang around dividend policy is the real tail, not commodity price.

What to watch: Q3 earnings on Nov 10 — FCF trajectory, ordinary and extraordinary dividend commentary, and any Brazilian government policy signal on Petrobras capex or payout ratios. Continued oil cooperation plus stable payout policy extends the run; an oil rollover or political intervention is what stops it.

On the calendar: 2026-11-10 — Q3 earnings

cheap multiplehigh dividend yieldbrazilian political risk

Read the AI verdict on $PBR

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • Whether TickerTalks' read agrees with or diverges from the X crowd
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Brazil's state-controlled oil major dominating deep-water pre-salt exploration and production with integrated refining and gas operations.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Oil & Gas Integrated sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $PBR.

Oil & Gas Integrated · Energy

Integrated oil majors trade on free-cash-flow yield and capital-return discipline; AI-optimised field operations and predictive maintenance are incremental margin improvements. Energy-transition capex allocations (LNG, biofuels, carbon capture) differentiate long-term positioning.

What this means for $PBR

Partial — Petrobras Brazil; pre-salt deepwater FCF, high dividend yield, but political/dividend policy risk under Lula.

Industry benchmark

8-name peer basket
+51.4%YTD
+57.9%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
5.2How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
8.8%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
27.8%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
14.1%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
1.1Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
26.0%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
46.6%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.8Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Aug 6, 2026$1.62$1.52+6.6%
Q1 2026May 11, 2026$0.96$1.02-5.9%
Q4 2025Mar 5, 2026$0.72$0.57+26.3%
Q3 2025Nov 6, 2025$0.82$0.79+3.8%
Next earningsTue, Nov 10·consensus EPS $1.13

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$23.5B+11.7%45.0%31.3%$0.96$3.3B
Q4 FY25$25.2B+21.2%46.1%20.8%$0.52$3.2B
Q3 FY25$23.5B+0.5%47.8%32.9%$0.94$5.0B
Q2 FY25$21.0B-10.4%47.6%26.0%$0.72$3.4B

Forward consensus

5-year forecast · up to 9 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$113.1B$112.7B – $113.5B$4.43$4.42 – $4.449
FY27$107.6B$90.5B – $116.9B$3.55$3.29 – $3.809
FY28$107.4B$89.0B – $121.8B$3.53$2.74 – $4.153
FY29$113.5B$94.1B – $128.7B$4.03$3.13 – $4.734
FY30$117.8B$97.6B – $133.6B$4.39$3.41 – $5.164

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.1.4×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.88%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.+14.0%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.+22.0%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatMega float · 4.0B shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today0.7% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β-0.225-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

BuyApr 2Laureano Angelica Garcia CobasChief Commercial Officer1.0K sh$9KSellApr 1Laureano Angelica Garcia CobasChief Commercial Officer19 sh$173
+ 5 other (5 returns) in window

See when $PBR insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
Free, forever. No credit card.

SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

3New insider — initial holdingsAug 103
AI summary

William Vella Nozaki filed a Form 3 on August 11, 2026, reporting his initial beneficial ownership of securities in Petrobras (PBR) upon assuming his role as Chief Sustainability Officer. The filing indicates no securities directly or indirectly owned at the time of filing, which is standard for newly appointed officers who have not yet received equity compensation. Petrobras is Brazil's state-controlled oil and gas giant and one of the world's largest oil producers. Future equity awards will be disclosed on Form 4.

SC 13D/AActivist amendmentJul 20SC 13D/A
AI summary

BNDES Participacoes S.A. amended its Schedule 13D disclosing beneficial ownership of 13.41% (730,495,645 shares) of PETROBRAS - PETROLEO BRASILEIRO SA (PBR). The position is held for potential strategic or activist purposes. This amendment updates a previously filed Schedule 13D on the same issuer. A 13.41% stake exceeds the 5% SEC disclosure threshold, requiring public identification of the holder, position size, and stated investment intent.

SC 13D/AActivist amendmentJun 3SC 13D/A
AI summary

BNDES Participacoes S.A. (BNDESpar), the Brazilian state development bank’s investment arm, filed Amendment No. 3 to its SC 13D on June 3, 2026 disclosing a holding of 781,451,745 Petrobras preferred shares (CUSIP 71654V101), representing approximately 14.35% of the preferred share class based on 5,446,501,379 shares outstanding as of March 31, 2026. BNDESpar shares voting and dispositive power with parent BNDES, though both are restricted from voting the preferred shares by a 2014 Brazilian Securities Commission order. The filing reflects an update to the reported ownership position following prior amendments; this is a routine government-entity ownership disclosure with no change in investment intent.

SC 13D/AActivist amendmentMay 21SC 13D/A
AI summary

BNDES Participacoes S.A. (BNDESpar) filed Amendment No. 2 to its SC 13D on May 21, 2026 reporting a holding of 822,557,996 Petrobras preferred shares (CUSIP 71654V101), representing approximately 15.10% of the preferred share class based on 5,446,501,379 shares outstanding as of March 31, 2026. BNDESpar shares voting and dispositive power with parent BNDES; both remain restricted from exercising their voting rights on the preferred shares per the 2014 Brazilian Securities Commission order. Compared to the subsequent Amendment No. 3 (14.35%), this earlier filing shows a higher ownership percentage, indicating that the position was reduced between the two filing dates. This is a routine government-entity ownership disclosure.

3New insider — initial holdingsMay 53
AI summary

Fabio Henrique Bittes Terra filed a Form 3 on May 5, 2026, reporting his initial statement of beneficial ownership as a newly appointed director of Petrobras — Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. (PBR), with an event date of April 27, 2026. The filing discloses no securities beneficially owned. This is a routine Section 16 initial ownership report for a new Petrobras board member — administrative in nature.

3New insider — initial holdingsApr 293
AI summary

Guilherme Santos Mello filed a Form 3 on April 29, 2026, reporting his initial statement of beneficial ownership as a newly appointed director of Petrobras — Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. (PBR), with an event date of April 17, 2026. The filing discloses no securities beneficially owned. This is a routine Section 16 initial ownership report for a new Petrobras board member — administrative in nature.

3New insider — initial holdingsApr 283
AI summary

Rachel de Oliveira Maia filed a Form 3 on April 28, 2026, reporting her initial statement of beneficial ownership as a newly appointed director of Petrobras — Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. (PBR), with an event date of April 24, 2026. The filing discloses no securities beneficially owned. This is a routine Section 16 initial ownership report for a new Petrobras board member — administrative in nature.

3New insider — initial holdingsApr 283
AI summary

Marcelo Gasparino da Silva filed a Form 3 on April 28, 2026, reporting his initial statement of beneficial ownership as a newly appointed director of Petrobras — Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. (PBR), with an event date of April 16, 2026. He directly owns 3,250 Preferred Shares (PBR/A) held as ADRs, each representing two Preferred Shares. This is a routine Section 16 initial ownership report for a new Petrobras board member with a modest personal preferred share position.

+ 92 other (79 6-Ks · 8 3s · 2 13Gs · 1 25-NSE) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Petrobras Gets Regulatory Nod to Drill 3 More Wells in Brazilzacks.com·1d agoFinancial Analysis: Petroleo Brasileiro S.A.- Petrobras (NYSE:PBR) & DHT (NYSE:DHT)defenseworld.net·1d agoQWEEN Launches Hyper-Realistic 3D Jewellery Virtual Try-On for Indian Shoppers with Perfect Corp.gurufocus.com·3d agoPetrobras (PBR) is a Top-Ranked Growth Stock: Should You Buy?zacks.com·7d agoHere's Why Petrobras (PBR) is a Strong Value Stockzacks.com·8d ago

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TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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