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ONONON

On Holding AG

$ONON·$10B·Apparel - Footwear & Accessories·Consumer Cyclical
$32.22+2.0%1Y-27.1%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-08-08: 26 posts2026-08-09: 43 posts2026-08-10: 76 posts2026-08-11: 392 posts2026-08-12: 100 posts2026-08-13: 28 posts2026-08-14: 26 posts692+18%
Price updated 17h ago·X counts updated 15h ago
ONONON
$ONONOn Holding AG
$32.22+1.99%692 posts+18%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Top X posts

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $ONON, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Proven numbersSelling offAI verdict · as of 2026-08-15

Falling on heavy selling — points lower unless it turns around.

The slowest quarter as a public company plus a guidance cut — the Americas wholesale channel is the specific thing that broke.

On Holding is the Swiss premium running-and-lifestyle footwear brand — the 'CloudTec' cushioned sneaker that scaled from niche running product to globally-recognized brand. Q2 delivered its slowest growth as a public company and the tape reacted violently — down 21% on the day, worst since IPO.

Where it stands:

  • Q2 broke the growth-consistency story: revenue growth decelerated to mid-teens as US wholesale demand softened, Americas grew +13% versus APAC +55% — the geographic-mix reversal is meaningful because Americas is the highest-margin channel and Costco/Dick's saturation was already showing in traffic data.
  • Management cut FY26 guidance and Hedgeye's McGough was cited as the analyst call that 'got people out of ONON' — when the reason the price gaps down is a specific analyst call rather than a mechanical guide-cut, the sell-side re-rating drives the multi-quarter trajectory.
  • The valuation is now reasonable: EV/EBIT at 16.9x is the lowest since IPO, gross margin remains at 64% (best-in-class for footwear), and revenue is still growing +17% year-over-year — but promotional discounts to Wells Fargo credit-card users are the kind of unglamorous demand-support move that signals inventory backlog behind the scenes.

The story stops while the Americas wholesale channel remains soft. What restarts it: a Q3 print with Americas returning to +20% growth or DTC channel acceleration offsetting wholesale weakness. What seals the breakdown: another guidance cut, or the Wells Fargo discount expanding into gross-margin compression.

Agrees with X sentimentAgree with the bearish tape — the +13% Americas vs +55% APAC growth divergence, the guidance cut, and Hedgeye McGough's call all support the read that US wholesale demand has decisively softened. The Wells Fargo credit-card promotional discount flag is the specific evidence of inventory-support activity behind the scenes; the contrarian bull threads with Elliott-wave setups aren't answering the fundamental question.

What to watch: November 11 Q3 earnings — Americas returning to +20% growth or a DTC channel acceleration offsetting wholesale weakness is what restarts the move. Another guidance cut or gross-margin compression from expanded promotional activity is what seals the breakdown and pushes the multiple even lower from the current 16.9x EV/EBIT.

On the calendar: 2026-11-11 — Q3 2026 earnings

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Bearish sentiment31 posts analyzed · as of 2026-08-14

On Holding chatter is decisively bearish after Q2 missed revenue estimates and cut growth guidance — the slowest revenue growth as a public company. Stock -21% on the day (worst day on record) to 52-week lows, EV/EBIT at 16.9x (lowest valuation ever). Americas +13% vs APAC +55% shows US wholesale demand as the problem. Hedgeye's McGough was cited as the analyst that 'got people out of ONON.' The premotional discounts to Wells Fargo credit-card users are being flagged as a red flag. Contrarian bull threads exist (Elliott wave 0.786 fib etc.) but the tape is bearish.

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $ONON

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Swiss performance sportswear brand selling CloudTec running shoes and apparel through DTC and wholesale channels globally with rapid revenue growth.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Apparel - Footwear & Accessories sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $ONON.

Apparel - Footwear & Accessories · Consumer Cyclical

No material change from last week — full-price sell-through discipline and inventory health rebuilding weigh on margins while China tariff sourcing uncertainty adds cost pressure.

Industry benchmark

4-name peer basket
-5.0%YTD
-18.4%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
32.5How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
16.9%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
13.4%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
3.7%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
2.7Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
15.9%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
63.9%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.3Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Aug 11, 2026$0.44$0.42+4.7%
Q1 2026May 12, 2026$0.47$0.34+39.6%
Q4 2025Mar 3, 2026$0.31$0.26+19.2%
Q3 2025Nov 12, 2025$0.50$0.33+53.7%
Next earningsWed, Nov 11·consensus EPS $0.51

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$850.5M+17.0%64.2%14.1%$0.32$6.5M
Q4 FY25$738.1M+21.7%63.9%11.1%$0.21$80.1M
Q3 FY25$794.4M+24.9%65.7%15.7%$0.36$136.8M
Q2 FY25$749.2M+32.0%61.5%12.4%$-0.12$83.8M

Forward consensus

4-year forecast · up to 20 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$3.5B$3.4B – $3.6B$1.40$1.36 – $1.5020
FY27$4.3B$4.1B – $4.3B$1.72$1.66 – $1.8920
FY28$5.2B$4.6B – $5.5B$2.17$1.75 – $2.4113
FY29$5.5B$5.1B – $5.8B$2.26$2.03 – $2.3811

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.1.5×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.10%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.-12.4%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.-20.0%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatHigh float · 225.0M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today4.0% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β2.125-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellJun 8Maguire Scott AndrewCOO1.5K sh$55KBuyMay 14Olivier BernhardExecutive Officer60.0K sh$2.2MBuyMay 14Coppetti Caspar FelixCEO60.0K sh$2.2MBuyMay 14Allemann David MichaelCEO60.0K sh$2.2MSellApr 27Martin HoffmannCEO4.2K sh$149KSellApr 20Martin HoffmannCEO4.2K sh$152KSellApr 13Martin HoffmannCEO4.2K sh$141KSellApr 6Martin HoffmannCEO4.2K sh$139KSellMar 30Martin HoffmannCEO4.2K sh$134KSellMar 23Martin HoffmannCEO4.2K sh$165K
+ 19 other (11 awards · 4 inkinds · 3 exempts · 1 other) in window

See when $ONON insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

3New insider — initial holdingsMay 73
3New insider — initial holdingsMay 73
3New insider — initial holdingsMar 183
3New insider — initial holdingsMar 183
3New insider — initial holdingsMar 183
3New insider — initial holdingsMar 183
3New insider — initial holdingsMar 183
3New insider — initial holdingsMar 183
+ 16 other (6 6-Ks · 5 13Gs · 3 3s · 1 S-8) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

2 Stocks That Could Double by 2030fool.com·1d agoBreakfast News: Week in Reviewfool.com·1d agoON Holding: Great Results, Greater Expectations (Rating Upgrade)seekingalpha.com·2d agoOn Holding Analysts Slash Their Forecasts After Q2 Resultsbenzinga.com·3d agoHere Are Wednesday’s Top Wall Street Analyst Research Calls: The Gap, Genmab, Hilton Worldwide, Intuitive Surgical, Marriott International, Merck, Novo Nordisk, Okta, and More247wallst.com·3d ago

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