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NMNMR

Nomura Holdings, Inc.

$NMR·$31B·Financial - Capital Markets·Financial Services
$10.65+0.3%YTD+15.3%1Y+48.7%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-08-29: 3 posts2026-08-30: 1 posts2026-08-31: 7 posts2026-09-01: 5 posts2026-09-02: 2 posts2026-09-03: 8 posts2026-09-04: 2 posts29+4%
Price updated 10h ago·X counts updated 9h ago
NMNMR
$NMRNomura Holdings, Inc.
$10.65+0.28%29 posts+4%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Top X posts

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $NMR, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Proven numbersAcceleratingAI verdict · as of 2026-09-05

The move is getting stronger, with heavier trading behind it.

Nomura up 49% t12m — Q1 EPS beat 30.4%, Japan financial cycle, at 98% of range, PE 0.3 (share-based reporting anomaly), FY26 revenue +38%.

Nomura Holdings is the largest Japan-based investment bank + wealth manager (Wealth Management, Investment Management, Wholesale). The equity has been a decisive Japan-financial-cycle winner accelerating on Wholesale + WM segment strength.

  • Recent earnings cadence is decisively strong: Q1 EPS $0.30 beat $0.23 by 30.4% (US-ADR-scaled), Q4 (fiscal-year-end March 31) $0.16 missed by 23.8%, Q3 $0.18 missed by 25.0%, Q2 $0.22 beat by 29.4% — the Q1 beat is the fresh-momentum inflection.
  • Revenue growth is decisively accelerating: Q4 FY26 revenue ¥1.36T grew 38.4% YoY, Q3 ¥1.17T grew 1.7%, Q2 ¥1.11T declined 6.7%, Q1 ¥1.11T declined 5.3% — the Q4 FY26 acceleration is the specific driver of the +49% t12m rally.
  • Fundamentals are ADR-scaled: PE 0.31 (US-ADR anomaly), FCF yield 0, ROIC 24%, ROE 404% — the reported numbers are distorted by the ADR-representation math; the underlying business is a scale Japan-financial franchise with genuine revenue growth.
  • The tape confirms the setup: shares at 98% of the 52-week range, +9.6% above the 50-day, +22.6% above the 200-day, beta 0.60 — up 49% t12m and at the top of range, with the community-flagged technicians seeing $10.50-$11.00 as key resistance.

What sustains the trajectory is October 27 Q1 FY27 print continuing the Q4 FY26 revenue acceleration plus specific Wholesale segment commentary; the risk is a JPY-strengthening cycle that compresses the ADR-scaled earnings translation, or a Japan-financial-basket rotation.

Agrees with X sentimentThe bull framing (technicians see NMR at $10.50-$11.00 hard resistance with trendline holding as key, large-cap non-tech financials working alongside LYG/NWG/NMR/AEG) captures the setup. The chatter also includes some ticker-collision noise (Numerai crypto) but the equity-relevant framing is clear.

What to watch: October 27 Q1 FY27 print — Q4 FY26 revenue acceleration continuing plus specific Wholesale segment commentary sustains the trajectory; a JPY-strengthening cycle compressing ADR-scaled earnings or Japan-financial-basket rotation deepens the cooling.

On the calendar: 2026-10-27 — Q1 FY27 earnings

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Bullish sentiment5 posts analyzed · as of 2026-08-06

$NMR chatter splits between Nomura (Japan financial), Numerai (crypto), and a small gold producer. On the equity side, technicians see NMR at $10.50-$11.00 hard resistance with the trendline holding as key. Bulls call large-cap non-tech financials working (LYG/NWG/NMR/AEG) and Numerai crushing since launching 10 years ago. One target smash intraday. Aggregate voice bullish across interpretations.

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $NMR

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Japan's largest investment bank offering retail wealth management, institutional securities, and asset management globally.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Financial - Capital Markets sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $NMR.

Financial - Capital Markets · Financial Services

IPO and M&A activity — the primary revenue driver for capital markets firms — is recovering as equity market strength rebuilds corporate confidence and sponsor exit windows open. Retail trading volume (HOOD's record signups) confirms the infrastructure layer captures incremental activity.

What this means for $NMR

Partial — insurance earnings follow combined ratio and investment income dynamics, partially correlated to industry macro; Nomura Holdings, Inc.

Top industry ETF

$IAIiShares U.S. Broker-Dealers & Securities Exchanges ETF
+5.0%YTD
+13.0%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
0.3How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
24.0%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
12.3%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
0.0%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
0.0Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
404%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
42.0%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
9.9Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Jul 29, 2026$0.30$0.23+30.4%
Q1 2026Apr 24, 2026$0.16$0.21-23.8%
Q4 2025Jan 30, 2026$0.18$0.24-25.0%
Q3 2025Nov 7, 2025$0.22$0.17+29.4%
Next earningsTue, Oct 27·consensus EPS $0.23

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q4 FY26$1.36T+38.4%53.2%7.9%$24.79$0
Q3 FY26$1.17T+1.7%42.4%11.5%$31.76$0
Q2 FY26$1.11T-6.7%42.0%12.3%$31.34—
Q1 FY26$1.11T-5.3%43.0%14.4%$35.19$0

Forward consensus

5-year forecast · up to 6 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$2.11T$2.06T – $2.19T$131.57$121.74 – $140.636
FY27$2.28T$2.15T – $2.40T$140.86$130.33 – $150.551
FY28$2.37T$2.10T – $2.61T$144.97$134.13 – $154.946
FY29$2.43T$2.29T – $2.56T$149.96$138.75 – $160.285
FY30$2.21T$2.08T – $2.32T$143.65$132.91 – $153.533

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.9×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.98%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.+9.6%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.+22.6%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatMega float · 2.8B shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today0.0% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β0.605-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.FilingActive offeringA shelf registration (S-3 / S-3ASR / S-1) or prospectus supplement (424B*) was filed in the last 90 days — the company is registered to (or actively) issuing new shares. Dilution risk.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

No open-market buys or sells in the last 180 days.

+ 31 other (31 awards) in window

See when $NMR insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
Free, forever. No credit card.

SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

424B5Prospectus supplement (offering)Jun 23424B5
AI summary

Nomura Holdings filed a preliminary prospectus supplement for a five-tranche offering of senior notes: 3-year floating rate, 5-year floating rate, 3-year fixed rate, 5-year fixed rate, and 10-year fixed rate notes, with aggregate amounts and rates to be determined at pricing. As a major Japanese investment bank, Nomura regularly accesses U.S. debt markets through its holding company structure.

3/ANew insider — initial holdingsJun 93/A
AI summary

Nomura Holdings Director Takahisa Takahara filed an amended Form 3 (Form 3/A) supplementing his March 18, 2026 initial disclosure, reporting 881 direct shares, 101,500 shares through Takahara Kosan K.K., and 98,000 shares through Tokyo Soft K.K. The amendment corrects or supplements prior ownership information for the director of Japan's largest brokerage and investment bank.

3New insider — initial holdingsApr 103
3New insider — initial holdingsApr 103
3New insider — initial holdingsApr 103
3New insider — initial holdingsMar 183
3New insider — initial holdingsMar 183
3New insider — initial holdingsMar 183
+ 73 other (32 6-Ks · 25 3s · 6 13Gs · 2 N-PXs) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Nomura (NMR) is on the Move, Here's Why the Trend Could be Sustainablezacks.com·3d agoNomura Value Fund Q2 2026 Portfolio Activityseekingalpha.com·5d agoRecent Price Trend in Nomura (NMR) is Your Friend, Here's Whyzacks.com·19d agoNomura Real Estate Holdings, Inc. (NMEHF) Q1 2027 Earnings Call Prepared Remarks Transcriptseekingalpha.com·35d agoNMR or JPM: Which Is the Better Value Stock Right Now?zacks.com·36d ago

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TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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