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CRCRCL

Circle Internet Group

$CRCL·$18B·Financial - Capital Markets·Financial Services
$95.55+9.7%YTD-20.5%1Y-20.5%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-08-22: 128 posts2026-08-23: 171 posts2026-08-24: 398 posts2,187+8%
Price updated 9h ago·X counts updated 7d ago
CRCRCL
$CRCLCircle Internet Group
$95.55+9.65%2.2k posts+8%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Top X posts

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $CRCL, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Hinges on a big eventEvent coming upAI verdict · as of 2026-08-30

A known event soon (earnings, a ruling, etc.) will likely decide the next move.

Whether stablecoin issuers get a real US regulatory moat is a vote 16 days out — that vote is the whole trade.

Circle is the issuer of USDC, the second-largest US-dollar stablecoin, and the stock has traded like a leveraged bet on US stablecoin regulation getting done. It's down 21% YTD and 33% over twelve months but has bounced 24% in the last week into a very specific catalyst.

  • The base business is real but pressured: quarterly revenue ran $658M / $740M / $770M / $694M across the last four quarters, gross margin fell from 22% to 7%, and analysts model just $0.86 EPS for the full year — the interest-income engine is what pays the bills, and every basis point of margin compression from stablecoin competitors matters.
  • The regulatory calendar is the whole trade for the next month: the Sept 15 Clarity Act vote in Congress and the GENIUS Act stablecoin rules coming in November are what determine whether USDC gets a US regulatory moat or has to compete on price with newer entrants — that binary is why the tape spikes on any procedural update.
  • The competitive backdrop is now genuinely hostile: a BofA/Wells/Santander stablecoin consortium and JPMorgan exploring its own coin are real threats to USDC's share, and the fresh 67.5M ARC token sale to institutions plus an S-3ASR shelf both say Circle is preparing to spend heavily on distribution — a fine plan, but not free.

A clean Sept 15 Clarity Act pass extends the rally toward the $250 target the crowd keeps citing and lets the Nov 11 print raise on more stable revenue assumptions; a delay or negative amendment resets the stock hard, especially with big-bank consortium headlines still in circulation.

Agrees with X sentimentX's dip-buyer framing matches the setup — the Sept 15 vote is a real dated catalyst and the +24% seven-day move already reflects that hope — but the '$250 target' talk is contingent on a specific bill outcome, not a done deal.

What to watch: The Sept 15 Clarity Act vote and any GENIUS Act implementation-detail leaks. A vote delay, an amendment that opens USDC to more competition, or a bank consortium naming a partner is what breaks the rally.

On the calendar: 2026-09-15 — Clarity Act vote

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Bullish sentiment110 posts analyzed · as of 2026-08-31

Sentiment on Circle runs overwhelmingly bullish, anchored by Bernstein's $140 target, Cathie Wood arguing Wall Street 'can't fathom' Circle as a disrupter, a Chelsea front-of-shirt sponsorship, and the September 16 Arc mainnet launch. USDC adding $2B in supply in a week gets cited as the growth cycle restarting. Dissent centers on the JPMorgan/BofA/Wells/Santander stablecoin consortium threatening USDC's share, and one poster dislikes the revenue-share model with Coinbase.

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $CRCL

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Issues USDC stablecoin and operates payment and treasury infrastructure enabling digital dollar transactions on blockchain networks.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Financial - Capital Markets sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $CRCL.

Financial - Capital Markets · Financial Services

IPO and M&A activity — the primary revenue driver for capital markets firms — is recovering as equity market strength rebuilds corporate confidence and sponsor exit windows open. Retail trading volume (HOOD's record signups) confirms the infrastructure layer captures incremental activity.

What this means for $CRCL

Direct beneficiary — business directly tied to crypto market cap and adoption cycle; Issues USDC stablecoin and operates payment and treasury infrastructure enabling.

Top industry ETF

$IAIiShares U.S. Broker-Dealers & Securities Exchanges ETF
+5.0%YTD
+13.1%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
-246.1How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
-2.2%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
-4.6%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
2.4%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
7.5Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
-2.6%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
7.2%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.0Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Aug 5, 2026$0.18$0.16+10.6%
Q1 2026May 11, 2026$0.21$0.19+8.1%
Q4 2025Feb 25, 2026$0.43$0.16+161.6%
Q3 2025Nov 12, 2025$0.64$0.19+234.7%
Next earningsWed, Nov 11·consensus EPS $0.35

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$694.1M+20.0%17.6%7.9%$0.23$11.7M
Q4 FY25$770.2M+76.9%22.4%7.3%$0.55$264.7M
Q3 FY25$739.8M+66.0%22.0%11.0%$0.92$-26.3M
Q2 FY25$658.1M+53.0%-38.3%-49.5%$-4.48$258.8M

Forward consensus

5-year forecast · up to 19 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$3.0B$2.8B – $3.6B$0.86$0.65 – $1.4019
FY27$4.2B$3.3B – $5.3B$1.61$1.34 – $2.5418
FY28$5.3B$3.6B – $7.0B$2.51$0.99 – $4.2315
FY29$7.6B$6.3B – $10.4B$5.83$4.53 – $8.6611
FY30$7.8B$6.5B – $10.7B$3.84$2.98 – $5.706

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.1.5×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.42%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.+35.1%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.+12.6%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatMid float · 186.2M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today10.6% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β0.235-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.FilingActive offeringA shelf registration (S-3 / S-3ASR / S-1) or prospectus supplement (424B*) was filed in the last 90 days — the company is registered to (or actively) issuing new shares. Dilution risk.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellAug 21Jeremy Fox-geenCFO45.0K sh$4.0MSellAug 20Burns M MicheleDirector3.3K sh$284KSellAug 13Jeremy Fox-geenCFO8.5K sh$636KSellAug 10Nikhil ChandhokChief Product & Tech. Officer26.7K sh$1.8MSellAug 6Danita K OstlingDirector20.0K sh$1.2MSellAug 5Jeremy AllaireCEO60.5K sh$3.8MSellAug 4Tamara L SchulzChief Accounting Officer1.2K sh$72KSellAug 4Hossein RazzaghiChief Commercial Officer1.8K sh$110KSellAug 3Neville Patrick SeanDirector50.0K sh$3.0MSellJul 8Nikhil ChandhokChief Product & Tech. Officer26.7K sh$1.7M
1–10 of 36
+ 56 other (19 exempts · 18 inkinds · 9 awards · 5 conversions · 5 others) in window

See when $CRCL insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

S-3ASRAuto-shelf registrationAug 5S-3ASR
AI summary

CRCL filed a S-3ASR (automatic shelf) registration statement with the SEC. As a Well-Known Seasoned Issuer, the registration is effective immediately upon filing. A shelf registration gives CRCL flexibility to issue debt, equity, or hybrid securities when market conditions are favorable. Filing does not indicate imminent capital raising.

8-KOfficer or director changeJun 128-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change
AI summary

Rajeev Date resigned from the Board of Circle Internet Group, Inc. on June 12, 2026 effective immediately for personal reasons; he had served since October 2013 and as Lead Independent Director since November 2024. The board reduced from nine to eight directors, and Craig Broderick (director since June 2023) was named the new Lead Independent Director. The departure of a nearly 13-year veteran and Lead Independent Director at Circle — a major stablecoin issuer — during its post-IPO public company phase is a governance event worth monitoring, though no disagreement with company policy is cited.

8-KShareholder voteMay 188-K — Item 5.07: Shareholder vote
AI summary

Circle Internet Group, Inc. (CRCL) held its 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders on May 14, 2026, with Class A shareholders (1 vote/share) and Class B shareholders (5 votes/share) voting together on four proposals; Class C shareholders held no voting rights. The specific proposals and vote outcomes are not included in the available excerpt due to truncation. This is a routine annual meeting governance filing for the publicly-listed stablecoin-focused financial technology company.

3New insider — initial holdingsMar 173
8-KOfficer or director changeMar 178-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change
+ 14 other (2 10-Qs · 2 10-Ks · 2 Ds · 2 proxys) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Cathie Wood of ARK Invest Continues to Scoop up Bargain-Priced Crypto Stocks. Here Are 2 Stocks You Should Be Buying Now.fool.com·14h agoBitmine Rises 4% as ETH Holdings Near 5% of Supply, Circle Internet Group Surges 8%, Coinbase Climbs 5%247wallst.com·16h agoCorcel Announces Non-Brokered Private Placementnewsfilecorp.com·22h agoChelsea FC and Circle Bring USDC Brands to the Global Gamegurufocus.com·4d agoOptimism Is Building for Passage of Crypto's Clarity Act. These 3 Crypto Stocks Need to Be On Your Investment Radar.fool.com·6d ago

In themes

Explore the broader themes this ticker is being talked about under.

Crypto Equity PlaysStablecoins & Tokenization

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Voices on X · top 15 · last 7 days

TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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