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NFNFLX

Netflix, Inc.

$NFLX·$290B·Entertainment·Communication Services
$68.67+1.6%YTD-27.0%1Y-44.3%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-07-14: 231 posts2026-07-15: 3,397 posts2026-07-16: 4,136 posts2026-07-17: 4,445 posts2026-07-18: 503 posts2026-07-19: 536 posts2026-07-20: 576 posts14,334+3%
Price updated 1h ago·X counts updated 1h ago
NFNFLX
$NFLXNetflix, Inc.
$68.67+1.58%14k posts+3%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Top X posts

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $NFLX, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Proven numbersSelling offAI verdict · as of 2026-07-20

Falling on heavy selling — points lower unless it turns around.

Still cash-machine profitable — but the market has decided this isn't a growth stock anymore.

Netflix is the world's largest streaming service — still the highest-margin, highest-cash-generating business in entertainment. The market has spent this year re-rating it from a growth stock to a mature one, and last week's tiny top-line miss capitulated the last of the holdouts.

  • The business still throws off elite cash: revenue grew 16% YoY last quarter to $12.25B at a 30% operating margin, and free cash flow ran $5.1B in a single quarter — that's not a broken franchise, that's just a franchise growing 13-16% instead of 20%+.
  • Q3 guidance of $12.86B fell about 1% short of the ~$13.01B consensus — a rounding error on the number, but combined with pulled engagement metrics it was enough to reset the 'streaming winner takes ad dollars' narrative that supported the previous multiple.
  • Netflix paid $587M for Ben Affleck's Artistanaka AI-filmmaking startup, and internal claims of 2x-speed / half-cost AI-assisted post-production point to 'make more content, cheaper' as the new lever — but that's an unproven margin story, not a proven one.
  • At 6% of the 52-week range and 26% below the 200-day, with insider grants but no open-market buys and volume running 3x the 30-day average, this is capitulation trading, not distribution into rallies — the setup a value buyer eventually wants, though not the day the tape confirms it.

At ~19x forward earnings and a 3.4% free-cash-flow yield, Netflix is priced like a mature media stock, not a growth stock — the bull case is that AI-driven content-cost leverage keeps operating margins climbing into a slow-growth top line, replicating the 'Ackman 2022 bottom' setup bulls keep invoking. The tape doesn't stop breaking down until a quarter shows revenue reacceleration OR clear margin expansion from the AI content stack; without one of those, this drifts toward a $60 handle where 'cheap enough' becomes the whole thesis.

What to watch: Q3 earnings Oct 20 — revenue growth (needs to hold ≥13% or accelerate) and operating margin (any hint that AI content-cost savings are flowing through, targeting 32%+). Absent one of those two, the tape has no reason to reverse and $60 becomes the next reference point.

On the calendar: 2026-10-20 — Q3 earnings

multi month downtrendcapitulation volume

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Mixed sentiment109 posts analyzed · as of 2026-07-20

Netflix printed a Q2 revenue miss at $12.56B against $12.59B expected with FCF also missing at $1.53B versus $2.72B, and shares slid over 8% to fresh 52-week lows below $70, now down nearly 50% from the all-time high. Bulls call it a generational setup at roughly 19x forward earnings with $27B in buyback firepower, 13-14% revenue guidance, and 33.4% operating margins. Bears cite Michael Burry's 'Netflix produces milk' critique, decelerating growth, reduced engagement disclosure, and a stock that has fallen 11 of the last 13 weeks.

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $NFLX

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Streams TV series, films, and documentaries to 220M+ paid subscribers in 190 countries via subscriptions and advertising.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Entertainment sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $NFLX.

Entertainment · Communication Services

No material change from last week — NFLX's global TV network model (ad tier expansion, password sharing crackdown) has stabilized margins while box office has its best summer since pre-pandemic..

What this means for $NFLX

Neutral — Streams TV series, films, and documentaries to 220M+ paid subscribers in 190 countries via subscriptions and advertising; limited read-through from entertainment macro dynamics to this specific revenue mix.

Industry benchmark

9-name peer basket
+17.9%YTD
-2.1%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
25.9How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
23.1%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
29.7%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
3.4%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
7.4Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
49.2%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
49.0%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.5Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Jul 16, 2026$0.80$0.79+1.3%
Q1 2026Apr 16, 2026$1.23$0.76+61.2%
Q4 2025Jan 20, 2026$0.56$0.55+1.4%
Q3 2025Oct 21, 2025$0.59$0.70-15.2%
Next earningsTue, Oct 20·consensus EPS $0.83

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$12.2B+16.2%51.9%32.3%$1.25$5.1B
Q4 FY25$12.1B+17.6%45.9%24.5%$0.57$1.9B
Q3 FY25$11.5B+17.2%46.4%28.2%$0.60$2.7B
Q2 FY25$11.1B+15.9%51.9%34.1%$0.74$2.3B

Forward consensus

5-year forecast · up to 35 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$51.2B$51.0B – $51.5B$3.60$3.53 – $3.6734
FY27$57.0B$55.8B – $58.1B$3.82$3.61 – $4.0235
FY28$62.9B$62.8B – $62.9B$4.57$3.83 – $5.1333
FY29$68.0B$67.1B – $68.9B$5.35$5.26 – $5.4426
FY30$73.3B$72.3B – $74.2B$6.31$6.20 – $6.4227

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.1.2×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.4%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.-15.7%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.-27.7%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatMega float · 4.2B shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today1.4% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β1.525-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellJun 17Bradford L SmithDirector36.0K sh$2.8MSellJun 1Reed HastingsDirector386.7K sh$33.2MSellMay 7Gregory K PetersCEO27.3K sh$2.4MSellMay 7Neumann Spencer AdamCFO9.3K sh$823KSellMay 5David A HymanChief Legal Officer5.7K sh$504KSellMay 5Theodore A SarandosCEO20.3K sh$1.8M
+ 36 other (23 awards · 7 exempts · 5 inkinds · 1 gift) in window

See when $NFLX insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

8-KShareholder voteJun 58-K — Item 5.07: Shareholder vote · Item 8.01: Other event
AI summary

NFLX (NFLX) disclosed the results of its annual meeting of shareholders in an 8-K filing under Item 5.07. Shareholders voted on ratification of the independent auditor. All management-sponsored proposals were approved by majority shareholder vote. Annual meeting results are a routine disclosure that confirms shareholder ratification of the board's composition and compensation practices.

8-KOfficer or director changeApr 168-K — Item 2.02: Earnings release · Item 5.02: Officer or director change
AI summary

NFLX reported period ending 2026-04-16 financial results (8-K Item 2.02). Investors should review the full earnings press release and any management guidance for forward outlook.

8-KAgreement terminatedFeb 278-K — Item 1.02: Agreement terminated
+ 24 other (14 DFAN14As · 2 10-Qs · 2 13Gs · 2 proxys) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Netflix Has Plummeted Over the Past Year and Just Dropped Again on Earnings. At 22 Times Profits, Is It a Buy?fool.com·1d agoNetflix's Post-Earnings Crash: Should You Buy the Stock While It's Below $70?fool.com·1d agoNetflix's top product exec says all employees should have an 'aspiration for AI fluency'businessinsider.com·1d agoNetflix's Weak Outlook Overshadows Q2 Earnings Beat: Time to Hold?zacks.com·1d agoWhy Netflix Stock Got an Upgrade After Earnings Slumpbarrons.com·1d ago

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TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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