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TickerTalks›$NFLX
NFNFLX

Netflix, Inc.

$NFLX·$309B·Entertainment·Communication Services
$68.95-7.3%YTD-26.8%1Y-40.5%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-07-09: 1,046 posts2026-07-10: 1,475 posts2026-07-11: 1,303 posts2026-07-12: 900 posts2026-07-13: 2,399 posts2026-07-14: 2,429 posts2026-07-15: 3,080 posts12,710+18%
Price updated 5m ago·X counts updated 2d ago
NFNFLX
$NFLXNetflix, Inc.
$68.95-7.26%13k posts+18%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Top X posts

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $NFLX, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Hinges on a big eventEvent coming upAI verdict · as of 2026-07-16

A known event soon (earnings, a ruling, etc.) will likely decide the next move.

Cut nearly in half in a year as engagement slipped — tonight's Q2 print decides whether the reset is priced in.

Netflix is the streaming category-winner whose stock has quietly been cut nearly in half over the past year as US TV market share slipped and the subscriber-growth machine matured. Q2 earnings tonight decide whether the reset is priced in or the story keeps unwinding.

  • The core business still generates real cash: Q1 2026 revenue grew 16% YoY, gross margin held at 52%, and Q1 alone produced $5B of free cash flow on $13B trailing operating cash — this isn't a broken business, it's a maturing one being repriced.
  • The crack in the story is engagement, not subs: WSJ reports management is exploring live-TV channels and streaming bundles because US TV viewership share slipped to a 12-month low, so the strategic pivot is now about defending time-spent rather than expanding new subscribers — a subtle but consequential shift.
  • Insider action is a real countersignal: director Bradford Smith exercised 71,980 options at $10 and sold 35,990 shares at $77.52 on June 17, harvesting roughly $2.8M — not scale distribution, but a top-tier director selling at current-adjacent levels, which weighs against a 'buy the dip before earnings' call.

Tonight's Q2 print has two decisive lines: paid engagement per member and any movement in the FY 2026 operating-margin guide. Beat both and the market-missed-the-reset thesis validates. A miss or soft engagement number confirms the tape's read that the wide moat is narrowing.

Agrees with X sentimentX is bearish and dominated by 'why does this keep dropping' defensiveness — mechanics back the read: US TV market share at 12-month lows, 44% below the year-ago cap, and independent director Bradford Smith cashing out $2.8M on June 17. The bull argument on wide moat and $13B TTM operating cash flow is real, but engagement is the load-bearing metric now, and the print tonight is what adjudicates it.

What to watch: The Q2 print tonight (July 16). Watch engagement-per-member trends, US net adds, and any FY 2026 operating-margin guide move. Positive engagement + margin expansion = reset priced in; softness on either = another leg down toward the 200-week SMA.

On the calendar: 2026-07-16 — Q2 earnings (today)

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Bearish sentiment62 posts analyzed · as of 2026-07-15

Netflix chatter is dominated by a WSJ report that the company is exploring live TV channels and streaming bundles because subscriber engagement is showing signs of slowing, with US TV viewership market share at 12-month-plus lows. The stock's market cap has roughly halved in a year (down ~44%), it just tested the 200-week SMA, and after-hours reactions have been red. Bulls argue Netflix remains a wide-moat category-winner, note $13B TTM operating cash flow, a possible $250M Letterboxd acquisition to shore up recommendation data, and are dip-buying into next week's Q2 print. But the dominant conversation is defensive - even bulls are asking 'why does this keep dropping?'

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $NFLX

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Streams TV series, films, and documentaries to 220M+ paid subscribers in 190 countries via subscriptions and advertising.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Entertainment sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $NFLX.

Entertainment · Communication Services

No material change from last week — NFLX's global TV network model (ad tier expansion, password sharing crackdown) has stabilized margins while box office has its best summer since pre-pandemic..

What this means for $NFLX

Partial — Streams TV series, films, and documentaries to 220M+ paid subscribers in 190 countries via subscriptions and advertising; this segment overlaps with the NFLX global ad tier model and streaming subscriber monetization but is not the dominant revenue driver.

Industry benchmark

9-name peer basket
+17.3%YTD
+1.7%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
25.9How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
23.1%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
29.7%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
3.4%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
7.4Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
49.2%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
49.0%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.5Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Jul 16, 2026$0.80$0.79+1.3%
Q1 2026Apr 16, 2026$1.23$0.76+61.2%
Q4 2025Jan 20, 2026$0.56$0.55+1.4%
Q3 2025Oct 21, 2025$0.59$0.70-15.2%

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$12.2B+16.2%51.9%32.3%$1.25$5.1B
Q4 FY25$12.1B+17.6%45.9%24.5%$0.57$1.9B
Q3 FY25$11.5B+17.2%46.4%28.2%$0.60$2.7B
Q2 FY25$11.1B+15.9%51.9%34.1%$0.74$2.3B

Forward consensus

5-year forecast · up to 35 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$51.4B$51.1B – $51.6B$3.56$3.49 – $3.6335
FY27$57.4B$56.1B – $58.3B$3.84$3.62 – $4.0334
FY28$63.2B$63.2B – $63.3B$4.59$3.89 – $5.2431
FY29$68.4B$67.3B – $69.6B$5.31$5.20 – $5.4426
FY30$73.9B$72.7B – $75.2B$6.22$6.08 – $6.3615

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.1.4×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.6%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.-8.1%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.-20.9%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatMega float · 4.2B shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today1.5% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β1.525-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellJun 17Bradford L SmithDirector36.0K sh$2.8MSellJun 1Reed HastingsDirector386.7K sh$33.2MSellMay 7Gregory K PetersCEO27.3K sh$2.4MSellMay 7Neumann Spencer AdamCFO9.3K sh$823KSellMay 5David A HymanChief Legal Officer5.7K sh$504KSellMay 5Theodore A SarandosCEO20.3K sh$1.8M
+ 36 other (23 awards · 7 exempts · 5 inkinds · 1 gift) in window

See when $NFLX insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
Free, forever. No credit card.

SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

8-KShareholder voteJun 58-K — Item 5.07: Shareholder vote · Item 8.01: Other event
AI summary

NFLX (NFLX) disclosed the results of its annual meeting of shareholders in an 8-K filing under Item 5.07. Shareholders voted on ratification of the independent auditor. All management-sponsored proposals were approved by majority shareholder vote. Annual meeting results are a routine disclosure that confirms shareholder ratification of the board's composition and compensation practices.

8-KOfficer or director changeApr 168-K — Item 2.02: Earnings release · Item 5.02: Officer or director change
AI summary

NFLX reported period ending 2026-04-16 financial results (8-K Item 2.02). Investors should review the full earnings press release and any management guidance for forward outlook.

8-KAgreement terminatedFeb 278-K — Item 1.02: Agreement terminated
8-KMaterial agreementJan 208-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
+ 24 other (15 DFAN14As · 2 13Gs · 2 proxys · 1 routine 8-K) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Netflix: Mr. Market's No-Growth Assumption Is A Buying Opportunity (Q2 Review)seekingalpha.com·1d agoNetflix, Inc. (NFLX) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcriptseekingalpha.com·1d agoThere's A Lot Of Things Not To Like In The Netflix Q2 Earnings Reportforbes.com·1d agoNetflix Q2: 2% Viewing Growth Now Carries The $3 Billion Ad Betforbes.com·1d agoNetflix Q2: This 8% Drop Is A Giftseekingalpha.com·1d ago

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TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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