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IBIBM

International Business Machines Corporation

$IBM·$270B·Information Technology Services·Technology
$214.08-2.3%YTD-26.4%1Y-22.3%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-07-09: 587 posts2026-07-10: 595 posts2026-07-11: 172 posts2026-07-12: 345 posts2026-07-13: 376 posts2026-07-14: 3,873 posts2026-07-15: 1,201 posts7,183+128%
Price updated 20m ago·X counts updated 2d ago
IBIBM
$IBMInternational Business Machines Corporation
$214.08-2.27%7.2k posts+128%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Top X posts

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $IBM, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Broken storyEvent coming upAI verdict · as of 2026-07-16

A known event soon (earnings, a ruling, etc.) will likely decide the next move.

A profit warning just erased a quarter of the market cap in one session — the July 22 print decides if that was over-reaction or the leading edge.

IBM is the legacy tech-services giant that spent the last few years reinventing around hybrid cloud and Watson AI — until last week's profit warning erased 25% of the market cap in a single session and triggered securities-fraud investigations from three separate law firms.

  • The tape damage is technically severe and volumetrically confirmed: the stock is at essentially the 52-week low (0.14% of its range), 23% below its 200-day moving average, and 30-day volume ran 2.5x normal — this is real institutional distribution, not thin-tape noise.
  • The AI-services story that drove the 2025 rally is now the wound: the profit warning specifically flagged Consulting-division weakness, which is exactly the segment Watson AI and Red Hat were supposed to lift — so the market's core 'IBM re-rating' thesis just took its first data-driven hit.
  • Fundamentals aren't broken but they're mixed: free cash flow yield sits near 4.9% at the crash price and Q4 2025 revenue grew 12% YoY, so cash generation is intact. But Q1 2026 revenue growth slowed to 9%, gross margin fell from 62% to 56%, and now the profit-warning has become the frame the market brings into July 22.

The July 22 Q2 print is the arbiter — a clean beat with Consulting bookings re-accelerating and Red Hat visibly compensating reframes the crash as an over-reaction. A confirmed decel or a further FY guide cut seals the broken-story pattern and drops the stock into its next leg.

Agrees with X sentimentX reads mixed but drifted cautious after Susquehanna initiated Neutral with a $303 PT and the profit warning triggered the 25% single-session crash — my broken-story frame agrees with the cautious drift. The chart-bull thread about a 'discount-zone buyer' stepping in is legitimate, but volume ran 2.5x on the crash, officer Anne Robinson took $1.2M off the table on July 1, and the stock is at the 52-week floor — the setup needs a clean July 22 to reset.

What to watch: The July 22 Q2 earnings. Watch Consulting bookings growth vs the softness that triggered the warning, Red Hat organic growth versus the FY guide, and any FY 2026 revenue/margin guide movement. Downward revision confirms the crash; stabilization sets up a mean-revert bounce.

On the calendar: 2026-07-22 — Q2 earnings

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Mixed sentiment⚠30 posts analyzed · as of 2026-07-15 · top-engagement diverged

IBM chatter is split between longer-term technicals and analyst caution. Susquehanna initiated IBM with Neutral and a $303 PT, arguing Quantum/AI and FCF strengths are balanced against Consulting-division concerns and a high valuation after a strong run. A $1.35B+ dark-pool block at $295.30 hit the tape. Chart bulls describe a bullish break-of-structure in late May followed by a discount-zone pullback with buyers stepping in on low volume. Trump-callout traders remind that IBM at $203 is now up 63%. Options traders posted 354% wins on 7/10 $305 calls. Earnings are July 22. Community is neutral-to-bullish but the Susquehanna Neutral rating and buy-tag list omissions have removed some enthusiasm.

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $IBM

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Sells hybrid cloud software (Red Hat), AI platform (watsonx), and IT consulting services to large enterprises.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Information Technology Services sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $IBM.

Information Technology Services · Technology

No material change from last week — SAIC, CACI, and LDOS benefit from multi-year DoD AI production contracts converting from pilots to deployed systems.

What this means for $IBM

Partial — Sells hybrid cloud software (Red Hat), AI platform (watsonx), and IT consulting services to large enterprises; this segment overlaps with the DoD AI production contract conversions driving multi-year IT backlog but is not the dominant revenue driver.

Top industry ETF

$IGViShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF
-12.0%YTD
-14.7%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
24.9How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
8.9%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
16.4%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
4.9%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
3.9Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
35.5%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
59.0%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
2.1Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q1 2026Apr 22, 2026$1.91$1.81+5.5%
Q4 2025Jan 28, 2026$4.52$4.31+4.9%
Q3 2025Oct 22, 2025$2.65$2.45+8.2%
Q2 2025Jul 23, 2025$2.80$2.65+5.7%
Next earningsWed, Jul 22·consensus EPS $3.02

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$15.9B+9.5%56.2%8.5%$1.30$4.8B
Q4 FY25$19.7B+12.2%61.6%21.2%$5.98$3.1B
Q3 FY25$16.3B+9.1%58.7%16.3%$1.87$3.7B
Q2 FY25$17.0B+7.7%58.8%18.2%$2.36$1.5B

Forward consensus

5-year forecast · up to 16 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$71.5B$71.2B – $72.2B$12.45$12.26 – $12.5416
FY27$74.6B$73.9B – $75.4B$13.41$12.96 – $13.9516
FY28$78.7B$78.6B – $78.8B$14.72$13.60 – $16.1312
FY29$82.2B$81.1B – $83.2B$14.36$14.12 – $14.6011
FY30$82.9B$81.8B – $83.9B$12.73$12.52 – $12.946

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.2.0×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.11%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.-16.4%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.-20.1%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatHigh float · 937.9M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today2.4% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β0.685-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

BuyFeb 25Michael MiebachDirector434 sh$101KBuyFeb 25Michelle J HowardDirector50 sh$12K
+ 39 other (31 awards · 4 exempts · 3 inkinds · 1 gift) in window

See when $IBM insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

8-KPress release / Reg FDJul 148-K — Item 2.02: Earnings release · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
AI summary

IBM (IBM) — 8-K (Items 2.02, 7.01) furnishing Q2 2026 earnings results and investor materials announced on July 14, 2026. Disclosed via press releases furnished as exhibits under Regulation FD. Material — major technology company quarterly earnings disclosure; furnished not filed.

8-KMaterial agreementJun 238-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement · Item 2.03: Material debt obligation
AI summary

New York 1-2360 13-0871985 entered into a material note purchase/issuance agreement on 2026-06-23 for $.20. Narrative: 2026-06-22 0000051143 ibm:Debentures5.875PercentDue2032Member exch:XNYS 2026-06-22 2026-06-22 0000051143 ibm:Debentures7.00PercentDue2045Member exch:XNYS 2026-06-22 2026-06-22 0000051143 ibm:Debentures7.125PercentDue2096Member exch:XNYS 2026-06-22 2026-06-22 UNITED STATES SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COM...

8-KPress release / Reg FDMay 288-K — Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
8-KOfficer or director changeMay 18-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change · Item 5.03: Charter amendment · Item 5.07: Shareholder vote
AI summary

IBM disclosed a personnel change (8-K Item 5.02, dated 2026-05-01). Personnel changes are generally administrative; materiality depends on seniority and circumstances.

3New insider — initial holdingsMar 53
8-KCharter amendmentMar 38-K — Item 5.03: Charter amendment
424B5Prospectus supplement (offering)Jan 30424B5
424B5Prospectus supplement (offering)Jan 30424B5
+ 22 other (4 S-8 POSs · 3 earnings 8-Ks · 3 proxys · 2 S-8s) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

INVESTOR ALERT: Pomerantz Law Firm Investigates Claims On Behalf of Investors of International Business Machines Corporation - IBMprnewswire.com·22h agoIs IBM's Crash Really a Buying Opportunity?fool.com·23h agoThe Inside Story of IBM's Shocking Profit Warningwsj.com·1d agoQ2 Earnings: 2 Winners and 1 Loser So Farzacks.com·1d agoInvestors Can't Shake AI Bubble Fears—But They're Not Dropping Their Favorite Tech Stocksinvestopedia.com·1d ago

In themes

Explore the broader themes this ticker is being talked about under.

AI InfrastructureQuantum Computing

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Voices on X · top 15 · last 7 days

TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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