TickerTalks
Browse all tickers →
TickerTalks›$IBM
IBIBM

International Business Machines Corporation

$IBM·$219B·Information Technology Services·Technology
$232.14-0.8%YTD-22.4%1Y-15.9%
Price updated 7h ago·X counts updated 5d ago
IBIBM
$IBMInternational Business Machines Corporation
$232.14-0.85%749 posts1×
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
Loading…

On X

Top X posts

The complete picture of $IBM on X — how loud the conversation is right now, how it has trended over the last two weeks, and which way the crowd is leaning.

749X posts · last 7 days
Sep 29Oct 11
Chatter Meter
1×
QuietNormal · 1×Loud

How loud $IBM's conversation on X is versus its own normal — 1× is typical, higher means busier. Right now it's about its usual level, louder than 70% of tracked names.

Mixed sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data7 posts analyzed · as of 2026-10-02

Sentiment is split — bulls lean on an oversold bounce setup (support at the 0.5 fib with the 200 EMA rejection in play, PT $332), a Seeking Alpha argument that "investors are treating a timing slip like a demand collapse," and the IBM-MRAM FlashCore selection as a structural tech win. The bear voice is a monthly chart technician calling IBM on the verge of breakdown continuation after bulls lost benefit of the doubt on the last earnings print.

Read what X is saying about $IBM

  • Bullish vs bearish call — with the AI summary of the day's posts
  • Divergence flag when the top-engagement posts argue the other side
  • How loud the conversation is versus this ticker's own normal
Free, forever. No credit card.

AI verdictAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

TickerTalks' own read on what's driving $IBM — fundamentals, momentum, or an event — and whether it agrees with the X crowd.

Proven numbersSelling offAI verdict · as of 2026-10-02

Falling on heavy selling — points lower unless it turns around.

The AI-services turnaround that actually started working — and the Z16 shortfall that just took $68B off the market cap.

IBM is a hybrid-cloud, mainframe, and consulting business — the one Big Tech name that's a late-cycle AI play through watsonx and Consulting. The stock has given back $68B of market cap since the Z-shortfall news and sits below both moving averages into the Oct 21 print.

  • The P&L is still accelerating moderately: revenue grew 9.5% YoY to $15.9B last quarter at 8.5% operating margin — not blistering, but Software (watsonx) and Consulting both contributed, and Red Hat growth stayed above 15%.
  • The Z-mainframe timing slip (Z16 revenue pushed into Q4/Q1) is the actual stock-moving event — bulls frame it as "timing not demand collapse," bears price it as revenue the hyperscaler cloud is slowly cannibalizing anyway.
  • At 25x trailing earnings and 3.9x sales, IBM trades at a Consulting multiple with Software upside — the Everspin MRAM FlashCore selection and tokenization/Infrastructure positioning gives the Oct 21 call interesting agenda items beyond just the Z slip.

Breaking-down holds unless Oct 21 earnings confirm the Z16 shortfall is a timing issue (and quantified recovery lands in Q4) and watsonx bookings re-accelerate above 25% YoY. Another Z guide-down, or Consulting margin compression, is what seals the de-rating toward $200 support; a clean Z timing walk plus FY27 guide-up is what breaks the tape higher.

Agrees with X sentimentX bulls citing the Everspin FlashCore win, the Seeking Alpha "timing slip not demand collapse" thesis, and the 0.5-fib bounce to $332 are reading the signals right — the Three Inside Down bearish continuation call below $221 is the honest risk-level, consistent with breaking-down until the Oct 21 Z16 reset.

What to watch: Oct 21 earnings — Z16 mainframe revenue recovery timing, watsonx software ARR bookings growth, Consulting operating margin. Another Z guide-down or soft watsonx print is what confirms the breaking-down tape.

On the calendar: 2026-10-21 — Q3 FY26 earnings

Read the AI verdict on $IBM

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • Whether TickerTalks' read agrees with or diverges from the X crowd
Free, forever. No credit card.

What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Sells hybrid cloud software (Red Hat), AI platform (watsonx), and IT consulting services to large enterprises.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Information Technology Services sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $IBM.

Information Technology Services · Technology

No material change from last week — AI infrastructure build-out continues to split the sector: GPU-compute/data-center operators (IREN, KEEL, APLD, SHAZ) accelerate on AI workload demand and power-deal momentum, while legacy IT outsourc.

What this means for $IBM

Neutral — Sells hybrid cloud software (Red Hat), AI platform (watsonx), and IT consulting services to large enterprises.

Top industry ETF

$IGViShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF
+4.2%YTD
-7.5%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
24.9How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
8.9%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
16.4%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
4.9%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
3.9Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
35.5%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
59.0%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
2.1Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Jul 22, 2026$2.93$2.95-0.7%
Q1 2026Apr 22, 2026$1.91$1.81+5.5%
Q4 2025Jan 28, 2026$4.52$4.31+4.9%
Q3 2025Oct 22, 2025$2.65$2.45+8.2%
Next earningsWed, Oct 21·consensus EPS $2.86

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$15.9B+9.5%56.2%8.5%$1.30$4.8B
Q4 FY25$19.7B+12.2%61.6%21.2%$5.98$3.1B
Q3 FY25$16.3B+9.1%58.7%16.3%$1.87$3.7B
Q2 FY25$17.0B+7.7%58.8%18.2%$2.36$1.5B

Forward consensus

5-year forecast · up to 17 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$70.4B$70.1B – $70.7B$12.31$12.06 – $12.6117
FY27$73.1B$71.6B – $74.6B$13.15$12.65 – $13.8217
FY28$76.9B$75.0B – $79.2B$14.35$12.85 – $16.2115
FY29$81.0B$79.7B – $82.2B$13.91$13.62 – $14.1910
FY30$81.5B$80.1B – $82.7B$12.56$12.29 – $12.827

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.1.2×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.25%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.+0.0%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.-7.8%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatHigh float · 940.2M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today0.7% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β0.725-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.FilingActive offeringA shelf registration (S-3 / S-3ASR / S-1) or prospectus supplement (424B*) was filed in the last 90 days — the company is registered to (or actively) issuing new shares. Dilution risk.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellAug 26Thomas Robert DavidPresident25.0K sh$5.8M
+ 28 other (24 awards · 1 discretionary · 1 exempt · 1 inkind · 1 gift) in window

See when $IBM insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
Free, forever. No credit card.

SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

3New insider — initial holdingsOct 83
8-KOfficer or director changeOct 18-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change · Item 5.03: Charter amendment
AI summary

IBM (IBM) filed an 8-K on 2026-10-01 disclosing a director or executive officer departure, appointment, or compensation change (Item 5.02). No narrative detail was available in the excerpt; this is typically an administrative personnel or governance disclosure with limited market impact unless it involves a key C-suite role.

424B5Prospectus supplement (offering)Aug 11424B5
AI summary

IBM filed a prospectus supplement for a senior notes offering with Canadian bank underwriters CIBC Capital Markets, RBC Capital Markets, Scotiabank, and TD Securities, dated August 10, 2026. Specific coupon rates, maturity dates, and offer size are in the full prospectus supplement.

8-KPress release / Reg FDJul 148-K — Item 2.02: Earnings release · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
AI summary

IBM (IBM) — 8-K (Items 2.02, 7.01) furnishing Q2 2026 earnings results and investor materials announced on July 14, 2026. Disclosed via press releases furnished as exhibits under Regulation FD. Material — major technology company quarterly earnings disclosure; furnished not filed.

8-KMaterial agreementJun 238-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement · Item 2.03: Material debt obligation
AI summary

New York 1-2360 13-0871985 entered into a material note purchase/issuance agreement on 2026-06-23 for $.20. Narrative: 2026-06-22 0000051143 ibm:Debentures5.875PercentDue2032Member exch:XNYS 2026-06-22 2026-06-22 0000051143 ibm:Debentures7.00PercentDue2045Member exch:XNYS 2026-06-22 2026-06-22 0000051143 ibm:Debentures7.125PercentDue2096Member exch:XNYS 2026-06-22 2026-06-22 UNITED STATES SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COM...

8-KPress release / Reg FDMay 288-K — Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
8-KOfficer or director changeMay 18-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change · Item 5.03: Charter amendment · Item 5.07: Shareholder vote
AI summary

IBM disclosed a personnel change (8-K Item 5.02, dated 2026-05-01). Personnel changes are generally administrative; materiality depends on seniority and circumstances.

+ 14 other (5 S-8 POSs · 3 earnings 8-Ks · 2 10-Qs · 1 11-K) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Can Slightly Higher Consulting Revenues Aid IBM's Q3 Earnings?zacks.com·17h agoCan Healthy Increase in Software Revenues Benefit IBM's Q3 Earnings?zacks.com·17h agoStay Ahead of the Game With IBM (IBM) Q3 Earnings: Wall Street's Insights on Key Metricszacks.com·18h agoQuantum Computing Is Still Years Away. These 6 Stocks Show Who Is Closest to Real Revenue.fool.com·19h agoIBM talent exec says it's better to be a specialist, not a generalist, in the AI erabusinessinsider.com·23h ago

In themes

Explore the broader themes this ticker is being talked about under.

AI InfrastructureQuantum Computing

More in Information Technology Services

Peers in the same group — one click to compare setups, fundamentals, and chatter.

$APLD$CIFR$HIVE$BR$KEEL$ACN$BBAI$WYFI
Voices on X · top 3 · last 7 days

TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

PrivacyTermsSupport