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BBBBAI

BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc.

$BBAI·$1.1B·Information Technology Services·Technology
$2.16-7.3%YTD-57.1%1Y-71.9%
Price updated 6h ago·X counts updated 5d ago
BBBBAI
$BBAIBigBear.ai Holdings, Inc.
$2.16-7.30%274 posts1×
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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On X

Top X posts

The complete picture of $BBAI on X — how loud the conversation is right now, how it has trended over the last two weeks, and which way the crowd is leaning.

274X posts · last 7 days
Sep 29Oct 11
Chatter Meter
1×
QuietNormal · 1×Loud

How loud $BBAI's conversation on X is versus its own normal — 1× is typical, higher means busier. Right now it's about its usual level, louder than 61% of tracked names.

Bullish sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data6 posts analyzed · as of 2026-09-13

BigBear.ai sentiment is bullish framed as potentially the next Palantir. Q2 2026 delivered 13% YoY growth with 20+ new contract wins and expanding decision-intelligence-plus-defense positioning. Buyers position under $3 with target moves toward $3.50-$5 and eventual $5-$10 zone on the AI-defense story.

Read what X is saying about $BBAI

  • Bullish vs bearish call — with the AI summary of the day's posts
  • Divergence flag when the top-engagement posts argue the other side
  • How loud the conversation is versus this ticker's own normal
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AI verdictAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

TickerTalks' own read on what's driving $BBAI — fundamentals, momentum, or an event — and whether it agrees with the X crowd.

Hinges on a big eventWinding up for a moveAI verdict · as of 2026-10-03

Trading in a tight range and building pressure — a move looks likely soon, but the direction isn't clear yet.

A sub-$3 AI-defense microcap trading like Palantir in 2022 — the fundamentals are small, the squeeze setup is specific.

BigBear.ai is a decision-intelligence platform for defense and intelligence customers — the thesis being pushed is 'the next Palantir' with 20+ new Q2 contract wins and expanding margin leverage. The reality is a much smaller company burning cash on a thin top line.

  • The P&L is still small and operating-margin negative: Q2 revenue of $34M with revenue growth essentially flat YoY (down 1%) at a -67% operating margin — this is not an inflection in the P&L, it's an inflection in the pipeline that still has to translate.
  • The capital-markets setup is specific though: volume at 1.6x average with the stock at 1% of its 52-week range and 33% below the 200-day means buyers are stepping in at the floor while sellers are exhausting — a classic microcap squeeze setup, not a thesis trade.

Nov 9 earnings is where the pipeline either converts or doesn't. 15%+ revenue growth with named defense customers plus operating-margin lift is the trigger for a move toward the $3.50-$5 band bulls flag; another flat revenue quarter without margin progression is the invalidation that extends the breakdown.

Agrees with X sentimentThe 'next Palantir' framing is marketing-grade comparison, but the specific pipeline-and-squeeze-setup read is grounded. The honest hedge the thread understates: Palantir was already growing 30%+ when it inflected — BBAI's single-digit growth is a different starting condition.

What to watch: Nov 9 Q3 earnings — revenue growth rate, operating margin direction, named defense contract wins, and backlog. 15%+ revenue plus margin lift is the trigger; flat revenue is the invalidation.

On the calendar: 2026-11-09 — Q3 earnings

event ahead 30dsqueeze setup

Read the AI verdict on $BBAI

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • Whether TickerTalks' read agrees with or diverges from the X crowd
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Provides AI-powered analytics and decision-support software for defense, intelligence, and supply chain customers.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Information Technology Services sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $BBAI.

Information Technology Services · Technology

No material change from last week — AI infrastructure build-out continues to split the sector: GPU-compute/data-center operators (IREN, KEEL, APLD, SHAZ) accelerate on AI workload demand and power-deal momentum, while legacy IT outsourc.

What this means for $BBAI

Neutral — Provides AI-powered analytics and decision-support software for defense, intelligence, and supply chain customers.

Top industry ETF

$IGViShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF
+4.2%YTD
-7.5%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
-6.9How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
-10.6%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
-67.7%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
-3.7%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
11.8Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
-50.7%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
25.8%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.0Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Jul 30, 2026$-0.05$-0.04-11.1%
Q1 2026May 5, 2026$-0.08$-0.080.0%
Q4 2025Mar 2, 2026$-0.04$-0.05+20.0%
Q3 2025Nov 10, 2025$0.01$-0.06+116.7%
Next earningsTue, Oct 27·consensus EPS $-0.05

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$34.4M-0.9%34.0%-66.9%$-0.12$-18.3M
Q4 FY25$27.3M-37.7%20.3%-88.9%$-0.01$-22.1M
Q3 FY25$33.1M-20.1%22.4%-64.0%$0.01$-10.9M
Q2 FY25$32.5M-18.4%25.0%-54.7%$-0.71$-5.0M

Forward consensus

2-year forecast · up to 1 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$145.8M$144.4M – $147.3M-$0.26-$0.27 – -$0.251
FY27$164.0M$162.4M – $165.6M-$0.17-$0.18 – -$0.161

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.9×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.1%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.-24.4%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.-43.1%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatHigh float · 473.8M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today3.3% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β3.265-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.FilingActive offeringA shelf registration (S-3 / S-3ASR / S-1) or prospectus supplement (424B*) was filed in the last 90 days — the company is registered to (or actively) issuing new shares. Dilution risk.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellMay 22Ricker Sean RaymondCFO10.0K sh$43KSellMay 8Dorothy D HayesDirector15.0K sh$62K
+ 16 other (8 inkinds · 8 awards) in window

See when $BBAI insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

8-KOfficer or director changeSep 158-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change
AI summary

BigBear.ai Holdings (BBAI) disclosed that board director Kirk Konert resigned effective September 15, 2026, with no disagreement regarding company operations, policies, or practices. Administrative director departure with no strategic concern or conflict disclosed.

3New insider — initial holdingsAug 173
AI summary

Retired Lt. Gen. Sean Alexander Gainey filed Form 3 as a newly appointed director of BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc., with an event date of August 13, 2026. No securities are beneficially owned at the time of the initial filing. Routine Section 16(a) initial director disclosure; no financial significance.

8-KOfficer or director changeAug 178-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change
AI summary

BigBear.ai Holdings elected Retired Lt. Gen. Sean Gainey to its Board of Directors and Nominating and Corporate Governance Committee, effective August 13, 2026. Gainey previously served as a Three Star General commanding the U.S. Army Space and Missile Defense Command (Jan 2024–Apr 2026) and as Director of the Joint Counter-UAS Office, bringing deep defense AI and drone-defense expertise. He will receive compensation under the company's standard non-employee director policy, including a prorated RSU award. Notable appointment for an AI-defense company — Gainey's direct command experience in counter-drone and missile defense likely strengthens government customer relationships.

424B5Prospectus supplement (offering)Jul 31424B5
AI summary

BBAI (BBAI) filed a 424B5 prospectus supplement on 2026-07-31 for new dilutive share issuance: 100,000,000 shares at $0.0001 per share. This represents dilution to existing shareholders.

8-KCharter amendmentJun 128-K — Item 5.03: Charter amendment · Item 5.07: Shareholder vote
AI summary

BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. held its 2026 Annual Meeting on June 9, 2026 (478,949,450 shares outstanding). Shareholders approved doubling authorized common stock from 500,000,000 to 1,000,000,000 shares, effective June 9, 2026 via Delaware certificate filing; Class II director elections and other routine proposals also passed. The share authorization doubling significantly expands BigBear.ai's capacity for dilutive issuances — equity raises, acquisitions, or employee compensation — without further shareholder approval each time.

8-KShareholder voteApr 228-K — Item 5.07: Shareholder vote
AI summary

BBAI held its special meeting of stockholders around 2026-04-22 (8-K Item 5.07). The meeting was adjourned, likely due to insufficient quorum. Routine governance event — monitor for unusually high withhold votes as an activist signal.

+ 9 other (2 13Gs · 2 10-Qs · 2 earnings 8-Ks · 2 proxys) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (BBAI) Sees a More Significant Dip Than Broader Market: Some Facts to Knowzacks.com·8h agoCan BigBear.ai Ride the Next Wave of Defense Technology?zacks.com·12h agoBigBear.ai Trades at a Discount to Industry: Buy the Stock or Hold?zacks.com·2d agoBigBear.ai vs. Rigetti Computing: Which Technology Stock Is a Better Buy in 2026?fool.com·3d agoBBAI Secures $225M+ in Federal Contract Awards Across Key Marketszacks.com·3d ago

In themes

Explore the broader themes this ticker is being talked about under.

Agentic AI & Enterprise SoftwareDefense & Drones

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Voices on X · top 4 · last 7 days

TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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