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BBBBAI

BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc.

$BBAI·$1.6B·Information Technology Services·Technology
$3.13+2.6%YTD-43.6%1Y-37.6%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-08-22: 10 posts2026-08-23: 10 posts2026-08-24: 16 posts142+8%
Price updated 12h ago·X counts updated 7d ago
BBBBAI
$BBAIBigBear.ai Holdings, Inc.
$3.13+2.62%142 posts+8%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Top X posts

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $BBAI, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Comeback attemptWinding up for a moveAI verdict · as of 2026-09-01

Trading in a tight range and building pressure — a move looks likely soon, but the direction isn't clear yet.

$409M cash, 20+ new defense-AI contracts, and Lt Gen Gainey to the board; tape at 8% of range.

BigBear.ai is a defense-AI decision-support software company, competing with Palantir at a smaller scale. The equity is deeply broken but a specific set of operational catalysts is stacking.

What the file actually shows:

  • The cash cushion is real — $409M reflects capital raised earlier, which gives BBAI runway to execute on the pipeline without immediate dilution pressure.
  • 20+ new contract wins in the last quarter validates the sales motion — combined with the Q2 revenue beat, the story has an operational anchor.
  • Lt Gen Sean Gainey joining the board (Aug 13) is a specific defense-industry credibility signal — a retired 3-star general adds Pentagon-relationship capital.
  • But the P&L is still contracting — last quarter revenue fell 1% YoY to $32M at a 26% gross margin and negative 68% operating margin; consensus is $145M revenue with a $0.26 EPS loss.
  • Structural tape is at the wrong end — 8% of the 52-week range, 28% below the 200-day, volume 89% of average; a coiled setup near the lows.
  • The comp to Palantir is unfair on scale but relevant on positioning — bulls need BBAI to convert defense-AI pipeline into revenue at a rate that BBAI's tape doesn't yet reflect.
  • Insider tape is empty except the Gainey grant.

The coil resolves higher on the Nov 9 print if new-contract revenue starts flowing and the 20+ wins convert to quarterly revenue growth; the wrong way if the chart-technical rejection at the 50-EMA extends and the sell signal deepens on volume.

Agrees with X sentimentX captures both halves — the Q2 beat, cash cushion, contract wins, and Gainey board addition are real bullish inputs, and the 50-EMA rejection technical is the fair bear input; partial agree with the coiled framing near the lows.

What to watch: Nov 9 earnings — new-contract revenue conversion, quarterly revenue growth turning positive, and any named defense-AI programs; the 50-EMA rejection extending with volume is the invalidation.

On the calendar: 2026-11-09 — Q3 earnings

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Mixed sentiment13 posts analyzed · as of 2026-08-31

Sentiment is split on BigBear.ai. The fundamental crowd is bullish on the defense-AI story — a Q2 revenue beat, 20-plus new contract wins, a $409M cash pile, and the addition of Lt. Gen. Sean Gainey to the board. Pure chartists are bearish, noting a rejected 50-EMA and price at resistance with a sell signal, waiting for volume to confirm a real bottom.

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $BBAI

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Provides AI-powered analytics and decision-support software for defense, intelligence, and supply chain customers.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Information Technology Services sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $BBAI.

Information Technology Services · Technology

SaaS multiples remain compressed as rate-sensitive valuations weigh on pure-play software; customers are lengthening deal cycles outside of AI-native workloads. AI co-pilot upsell is the only clear near-term catalyst — companies without it are treading water.

What this means for $BBAI

Direct beneficiary — AI-native product or platform captures spend from the same capex cycle driving the industry; Provides AI-powered analytics and decision-support software for defense, intelligence, and supply chain customers.

Top industry ETF

$IGViShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF
-4.2%YTD
+2.5%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
-6.9How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
-10.6%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
-67.7%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
-3.7%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
11.8Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
-50.7%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
25.8%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.0Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Jul 30, 2026$-0.05$-0.04-11.1%
Q1 2026May 5, 2026$-0.08$-0.080.0%
Q4 2025Mar 2, 2026$-0.04$-0.05+20.0%
Q3 2025Nov 10, 2025$0.01$-0.06+116.7%
Next earningsMon, Nov 9·consensus EPS $-0.05

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$34.4M-0.9%34.0%-66.9%$-0.12$-18.3M
Q4 FY25$27.3M-37.7%20.3%-88.9%$-0.01$-22.1M
Q3 FY25$33.1M-20.1%22.4%-64.0%$0.01$-10.9M
Q2 FY25$32.5M-18.4%25.0%-54.7%$-0.71$-5.0M

Forward consensus

2-year forecast · up to 1 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$145.2M$144.4M – $145.9M-$0.26-$0.27 – -$0.251
FY27$158.1M$157.3M – $158.9M-$0.15-$0.15 – -$0.151

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.9×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.8%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.-1.3%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.-28.2%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatHigh float · 473.8M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today4.1% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β3.185-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.FilingActive offeringA shelf registration (S-3 / S-3ASR / S-1) or prospectus supplement (424B*) was filed in the last 90 days — the company is registered to (or actively) issuing new shares. Dilution risk.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellMay 22Ricker Sean RaymondCFO10.0K sh$43KSellMay 8Dorothy D HayesDirector15.0K sh$62KSellMar 16Braden Pamela JoyceDirector80.0K sh$320KSellMar 6Dorothy D HayesDirector17.0K sh$68K
+ 21 other (11 awards · 10 inkinds) in window

See when $BBAI insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

3New insider — initial holdingsAug 173
AI summary

Retired Lt. Gen. Sean Alexander Gainey filed Form 3 as a newly appointed director of BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc., with an event date of August 13, 2026. No securities are beneficially owned at the time of the initial filing. Routine Section 16(a) initial director disclosure; no financial significance.

8-KOfficer or director changeAug 178-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change
AI summary

BigBear.ai Holdings elected Retired Lt. Gen. Sean Gainey to its Board of Directors and Nominating and Corporate Governance Committee, effective August 13, 2026. Gainey previously served as a Three Star General commanding the U.S. Army Space and Missile Defense Command (Jan 2024–Apr 2026) and as Director of the Joint Counter-UAS Office, bringing deep defense AI and drone-defense expertise. He will receive compensation under the company's standard non-employee director policy, including a prorated RSU award. Notable appointment for an AI-defense company — Gainey's direct command experience in counter-drone and missile defense likely strengthens government customer relationships.

424B5Prospectus supplement (offering)Jul 31424B5
AI summary

BBAI (BBAI) filed a 424B5 prospectus supplement on 2026-07-31 for new dilutive share issuance: 100,000,000 shares at $0.0001 per share. This represents dilution to existing shareholders.

8-KCharter amendmentJun 128-K — Item 5.03: Charter amendment · Item 5.07: Shareholder vote
AI summary

BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. held its 2026 Annual Meeting on June 9, 2026 (478,949,450 shares outstanding). Shareholders approved doubling authorized common stock from 500,000,000 to 1,000,000,000 shares, effective June 9, 2026 via Delaware certificate filing; Class II director elections and other routine proposals also passed. The share authorization doubling significantly expands BigBear.ai's capacity for dilutive issuances — equity raises, acquisitions, or employee compensation — without further shareholder approval each time.

8-KShareholder voteApr 228-K — Item 5.07: Shareholder vote
AI summary

BBAI held its special meeting of stockholders around 2026-04-22 (8-K Item 5.07). The meeting was adjourned, likely due to insufficient quorum. Routine governance event — monitor for unusually high withhold votes as an activist signal.

+ 15 other (6 proxys · 3 13Gs · 2 10-Qs · 2 earnings 8-Ks) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

BigBear.ai vs. Palantir: Which Defense AI Stock Is the Better Choice?zacks.com·21h agoBigBear.ai's New AI Deployments Gain Traction: Can Growth Broaden?zacks.com·4d agoGorilla Sinks 11% Despite Guiding 2027 Revenue Up to 29% Above Consensus, Evolv Technologies and Ambarella Tick Up247wallst.com·7d agoPalantir Climbs 4% Through $180, BigBear.ai Rises 4%, ServiceNow Holds Flat: How Are Traders Picking the Software Winners?247wallst.com·11d agoCould Global Trade Trends Drive BigBear.ai's Next Growth Phase?zacks.com·12d ago

In themes

Explore the broader themes this ticker is being talked about under.

Agentic AI & Enterprise SoftwareDefense & Drones

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Voices on X · top 15 · last 7 days

TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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