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BBBBAI

BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc.

$BBAI·$1.2B·Information Technology Services·Technology
$2.84-2.7%YTD-49.3%1Y-65.5%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-07-11: 1,016 posts2026-07-12: 460 posts2026-07-13: 625 posts2026-07-14: 508 posts2026-07-15: 672 posts2026-07-16: 737 posts2026-07-17: 390 posts4,515+21%
Price updated 5h ago·X counts updated 5h ago
BBBBAI
$BBAIBigBear.ai Holdings, Inc.
$2.84-2.74%4.5k posts+21%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Top X posts

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $BBAI, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Broken storySelling offAI verdict · as of 2026-07-17

Falling on heavy selling — points lower unless it turns around.

The regulatory wins are real; the tape is telling you they're not enough.

BigBear.ai sells AI-powered decision-intelligence software to defense and homeland-security customers — a business with genuine regulatory wins landing while the equity keeps testing new lows.

Where the disconnect sits:

  • The regulatory wins are legitimate: Pangiam Threat Detection cleared Dutch national approval for aviation-security screening, and the House Homeland Security Committee invited BBAI to brief on counter-UAS capabilities — real government access, not press-release fluff.
  • The economics haven't caught up: 26% gross margin against a 68% negative operating margin means every contract still consumes cash, and free cash flow yield sits at negative 3.7% — meaning the wins have to convert to revenue at scale before the equity math works.
  • The tape is at the floor: sitting at 0.15% of the 52-week range with the price 42% below the 200-day — that's not testing support, that's institutional distribution running to completion.
  • The insider signal is neutral, not bullish: recent officer activity is small F-InKind tax-withholding events, meaning executives aren't buying at these levels — an absence-of-conviction tell that matches the tape.

The fix has to be revenue conversion, not more regulatory clearances. What restarts the equity is a specific contract-award announcement with dollar value; what continues the decline is another quarter of positive news headlines without matching contract flow.

Differs from X sentimentX is bullish on the Dutch approval and the House Homeland Security briefing as regulatory-catalyst validation, and both are real. But the same catalysts have been landing for months while the stock has continued to make new lows — the corpus is trading a narrative the tape has already rejected.

What to watch: The Aug 10 print — specifically new contract awards with dollar values, cash burn versus prior quarter, and any commentary on runway. A specific dollar-value contract announcement restarts the move; another quarter of press-release wins without contract conversion continues the collapse.

On the calendar: 2026-08-10 — Q2 earnings

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Bullish sentiment10 posts analyzed · as of 2026-07-15

BigBear.ai chatter is bullish regulatory-catalyst. BBAI's Pangiam Threat Detection platform received Dutch national approval for aviation-security screening - a national regulatory barrier competitors cannot market around. The US House Homeland Security Committee invited BBAI to brief on counter-UAS capabilities. Community members buying BBAI at $3 as a long-term position 'despite bearish headlines,' calling dilution risk already priced in. Bull targets: $BBAI $3.2 - 'must-buy for a $1M by end of 2026' list. Chart bulls describe a falling-wedge + psychological support setup with $3.37 as a break-and-close level. Community broadly long.

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $BBAI

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  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Provides AI-powered analytics and decision-support software for defense, intelligence, and supply chain customers.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Information Technology Services sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $BBAI.

Information Technology Services · Technology

No material change from last week — SAIC, CACI, and LDOS benefit from multi-year DoD AI production contracts converting from pilots to deployed systems.

What this means for $BBAI

Neutral — Provides AI-powered analytics and decision-support software for defense, intelligence, and supply chain customers; limited exposure means the DoD AI production contract conversions driving multi-year IT backlog is not a near-term catalyst or headwind.

Top industry ETF

$IGViShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF
-12.9%YTD
-16.6%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
-6.9How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
-10.6%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
-67.7%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
-3.7%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
11.8Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
-50.7%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
25.8%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.0Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q1 2026May 5, 2026$-0.08$-0.080.0%
Q4 2025Mar 2, 2026$-0.04$-0.05+20.0%
Q3 2025Nov 10, 2025$-0.07$-0.06-16.7%
Q2 2025Aug 11, 2025$-0.06$-0.07+14.3%
Next earningsMon, Aug 10·consensus EPS $-0.04

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$34.4M-0.9%34.0%-66.9%$-0.12$-18.3M
Q4 FY25$27.3M-37.7%20.3%-88.9%$-0.01$-22.1M
Q3 FY25$33.1M-20.1%22.4%-64.0%$0.01$-10.9M
Q2 FY25$32.5M-18.4%25.0%-54.7%$-0.71$-5.0M

Forward consensus

2-year forecast · up to 2 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$143.5M$141.7M – $145.4M-$0.25-$0.26 – -$0.242
FY27$154.3M$152.5M – $156.5M-$0.14-$0.14 – -$0.141

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.9×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.1%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.-28.2%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.-42.9%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatHigh float · 356.0M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today7.7% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β3.135-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellMay 22Ricker Sean RaymondCFO10.0K sh$43KSellMay 8Dorothy D HayesDirector15.0K sh$62KSellMar 16Braden Pamela JoyceDirector80.0K sh$320KSellMar 6Dorothy D HayesDirector17.0K sh$68K
+ 26 other (13 inkinds · 13 awards) in window

See when $BBAI insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

8-KCharter amendmentJun 128-K — Item 5.03: Charter amendment · Item 5.07: Shareholder vote
AI summary

BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. held its 2026 Annual Meeting on June 9, 2026 (478,949,450 shares outstanding). Shareholders approved doubling authorized common stock from 500,000,000 to 1,000,000,000 shares, effective June 9, 2026 via Delaware certificate filing; Class II director elections and other routine proposals also passed. The share authorization doubling significantly expands BigBear.ai's capacity for dilutive issuances — equity raises, acquisitions, or employee compensation — without further shareholder approval each time.

8-KShareholder voteApr 228-K — Item 5.07: Shareholder vote
AI summary

BBAI held its special meeting of stockholders around 2026-04-22 (8-K Item 5.07). The meeting was adjourned, likely due to insufficient quorum. Routine governance event — monitor for unusually high withhold votes as an activist signal.

+ 14 other (8 proxys · 2 earnings 8-Ks · 1 10-Q · 1 PRE 14A) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Why BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (BBAI) Dipped More Than Broader Market Todayzacks.com·8h agoBigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (BBAI) Falls More Steeply Than Broader Market: What Investors Need to Knowzacks.com·1d agoBigBear.ai Launches Expanded Generative AI Platform and Capabilities for Department of War Missionsbusinesswire.com·3d agoBigBear.ai Stock Falls 24% in a Month: Buy the Dip or Stay Away?zacks.com·4d agoBigBear.ai: A Better Business At The Wrong Priceseekingalpha.com·4d ago

In themes

Explore the broader themes this ticker is being talked about under.

Agentic AI & Enterprise SoftwareDefense & Drones

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Voices on X · top 1 · last 7 days

TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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