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HBHBM

Hudbay Minerals Inc.

$HBM·$12B·Copper·Basic Materials
$29.29-3.5%YTD+22.1%1Y+148.2%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-08-21: 25 posts2026-08-22: 2 posts2026-08-23: 10 posts81-3%
Price updated 2d ago·X counts updated 7d ago
HBHBM
$HBMHudbay Minerals Inc.
$29.29-3.52%81 posts-3%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $HBM, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Proven numbersAcceleratingAI verdict · as of 2026-08-30

The move is getting stronger, with heavier trading behind it.

Hudbay Minerals up 148% TTM on the copper cycle — mid-cap North American miner with 40% op margin, real earnings.

Hudbay Minerals is a Canadian mid-cap copper miner with operations in Manitoba, Arizona and Peru. It's the smaller pure-play name in the copper cohort that has ripped alongside FCX.

Why the setup works:

  • Growth is real: Q1 revenue grew 27% year-on-year to $757M, Q4 was +25%, operating margin at 40% — the operational leverage on copper prices is producing real earnings.
  • Valuation is defensible: 19x trailing earnings, 7.9x EV/EBITDA, 5.3x sales on 7% ROIC and 21% ROE — mid-range for a copper miner at cycle-highs, with room if FY27 earnings compound.
  • Position confirms trend: 86th percentile 52w, 18% above the 50-day, 26% above the 200-day on quiet 77% baseline volume — real accumulation.
  • The 148% TTM total return has been top-decile among global metals and mining — HBM has outrun both FCX and BHP.
  • Early Warning Report for Panoro Minerals (August 28) is a specific corporate-development signal — potential accumulation of a strategic stake.
  • Insider signal is silent: zero recent open-market transactions.
  • Copper hitting a new all-time high is the sector tailwind still running.

The November 4 print is what defends the run — realized copper price above $5/lb plus continued unit-cost discipline keeps the multiple; a copper mean-reversion to $4 or a specific operational disruption at Constancia (Peru) triggers a real 20% pullback.

Agrees with X sentimentAgree — the anchors (HBM +181% one-year total return, growing North American copper producer alongside SCCO and NRED, copper new ATH tailwind) map to real signals; nothing meaningful in the bear column here.

What to watch: November 4 earnings — realized copper price above $5/lb plus continued unit-cost discipline keeps the multiple; a copper mean-reversion to $4 or specific operational disruption at Constancia (Peru) triggers a real 20% pullback.

On the calendar: 2026-11-04 — Q3 earnings

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Bullish sentiment5 posts analyzed · as of 2026-08-13

X users are bullish on Hudbay Minerals as one of the top-performing global metals and mining stocks with a +181% one-year total return. Posters cite HBM as a growing North American copper producer alongside SCCO and NRED benefiting from copper hitting a new all-time high. Commentary treats the name as a large-cap miner suitable for long-term holds.

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $HBM

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Canadian diversified miner producing copper, gold, silver, and molybdenum from mines in North and South America.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Copper sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $HBM.

Copper · Basic Materials

Copper demand is driven by two structural forces in parallel: grid infrastructure buildout (electrification) and data center cooling/wiring for AI deployments. Supply constraints from aging mine infrastructure and declining ore grades support the long-term price floor.

What this means for $HBM

Partial — upstream oil & gas exposure ties to commodity price cycle; Hudbay Minerals Inc.

Top industry ETF

$COPXGlobal X Copper Miners ETF
+14.2%YTD
+92.9%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
19.2How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
6.6%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
28.7%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
2.0%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
5.3Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
20.7%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
37.1%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.3Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Jul 29, 2026$0.28$0.26+8.4%
Q1 2026May 1, 2026$0.40$0.34+17.6%
Q4 2025Feb 20, 2026$0.22$0.40-45.0%
Q3 2025Nov 12, 2025$0.03$0.06-50.0%
Next earningsWed, Nov 4·consensus EPS $0.36

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$757.3M+27.3%48.6%40.0%$0.47$69.8M
Q4 FY25$732.9M+25.3%36.9%29.6%$0.33$42.3M
Q3 FY25$346.8M-28.6%18.8%3.0%$0.56$3.1M
Q2 FY25$536.4M+26.1%32.9%28.3%$0.30$137.4M

Forward consensus

5-year forecast · up to 11 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$2.9B$2.8B – $3.1B$1.47$0.98 – $1.9610
FY27$3.4B$3.1B – $3.9B$1.92$1.40 – $2.5411
FY28$3.3B$2.9B – $4.0B$1.84$0.95 – $2.558
FY29$3.7B$3.4B – $4.1B$2.06$1.84 – $2.357
FY30$3.4B$3.1B – $3.8B$2.01$1.79 – $2.297

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.8×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.86%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.+18.4%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.+26.0%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatHigh float · 427.4M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today0.9% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β2.275-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

No material 8-K / SC 13D / S-3 / 424B5 filings in the last 180 days.

+ 19 other (11 6-Ks · 3 13Gs · 1 S-8 · 1 SD) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Hudbay Files Early Warning Report for Panoro Minerals Ltd.globenewswire.com·2d agoSK hynix Holds Groundbreaking Ceremony for HBM Production Base in Indiana, "Beginning a New Future for US-Korea AI"gurufocus.com·3d agoSK hynix: Cheap Despite A Historic Memory Boomseekingalpha.com·5d agoSK Hynix: Custom HBM Could Drive The Next Reratingseekingalpha.com·6d agoMicron: Don't Get Shaken Outseekingalpha.com·7d ago

In themes

Explore the broader themes this ticker is being talked about under.

Trending on XCritical Minerals & Rare Earths

More in Copper

Peers in the same group — one click to compare setups, fundamentals, and chatter.

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Voices on X · last 7 days

No standout posts about $HBM on X in the last 7 days.

TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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