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FMFMCC

Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation

$FMCC·$3.7B·Financial - Mortgages·Financial Services
$5.64-0.3%1Y-40.0%
Mentions · last 7 days
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Price updated 2d ago
FMFMCC
$FMCCFederal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation
$5.64-0.27%0 posts
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Top X posts

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $FMCC, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Hinges on a big eventEvent coming upAI verdict · as of 2026-08-28

A known event soon (earnings, a ruling, etc.) will likely decide the next move.

Freddie Mac in conservatorship — earnings are strong but the entire equity value turns on a privatisation decision.

Freddie Mac buys, securitises and guarantees single-family and multifamily mortgages in the US secondary market, and has been in government conservatorship since 2008. The operating results are genuinely strong: revenue around $33-34B per quarter growing 3-11% YoY with operating margins of 92-97%, and the last two earnings prints beat by 34.2% and 21.1%. Three analysts model EPS around $3.91-4.07 for 2026-2027. But almost none of the standard analysis applies here. The -1527x P/E, 43.96x debt-to-equity and 389% FCF yield are artifacts of a balance sheet where the Treasury holds senior preferred stock with a liquidation preference that has grown to exceed the company's net worth, meaning common shareholders have no claim on retained earnings under the current agreement. The quarterly EPS figures of -$0.003 to +$0.006 reflect that structure, while the $1.10-1.19 figures in the surprise table are on a different basis. The entire investment case is a policy question: whether the government releases the enterprises from conservatorship and on what terms for existing common holders. That debate is live in the news — Oksenholt Capital published a white paper proposing a combined trillion-dollar Fannie-Freddie platform and separately challenged Pershing Square's valuation, so sophisticated investors are actively arguing over the outcome. The stock is down at 19% of its 52-week range with a beta of 1.74, which reflects how completely it trades on policy headlines.

Differs from X sentimentNo X sentiment snapshot is available, which is notable for a name with an active investor debate. The visible coverage is routine mortgage-rate releases plus two Oksenholt Capital pieces arguing over valuation — the latter are advocacy from a position holder, not neutral analysis.

What to watch: Any concrete administration or Federal Housing Finance Agency action on releasing the enterprises from conservatorship, and specifically how the Treasury senior preferred is treated — that determines whether common equity has value at all. Q3 on 2026-10-29. Mortgage credit performance matters far less to the equity than the policy outcome.

On the calendar: Q3 earnings, 2026-10-29

low-chatternot-common-equity

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Mixed sentiment49 posts analyzed · as of 2026-08-30

Freddie shareholders sound equal parts hopeful and exhausted, with Trump-administration watchers predicting a release moonshot after the midterms while others describe an 18-year conservatorship that has ignored them despite recent price action, an FHFA annual report saying the enterprises are being prepared to exit, and stray Bill Ackman and Michael Burry positioning. Debates run between a clean uplist and Jon Oksenholt's USFTMC combined-company proposal. Frustration with government inaction sits alongside the trillion-dollar valuation thesis.

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $FMCC

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation, commonly known as Freddie Mac, is a key participant in the United States' secondary mortgage market. Its primary activities involve acquiring residential mortgage loans, encompassing both single-family homes and multi-unit properties, from a variety of lenders. Furthermore, the corporation allocates capital to mortgage loans and related securities. The company's operations are divided into two main divisions: Single-family and Multifamily. The Single-family division is tasked with the procurement, securitization, and assurance of loans for individual residences. It also manages the inherent credit risk associated with these mortgages, oversees its portfolio of mortgage-linked investments, directs single-family securitization processes, and performs treasury functions. This segment provides services to a wide array of clients, including mortgage banking firms, commercial and regional banks, community banks, credit unions, housing finance agencies, savings institutions, and other non-depository financial entities. Conversely, the Multifamily division concentrates on the acquisition, disposition, securitization, and guaranteeing of loans and securities pertaining to multi-unit properties, notably through its K and SB certificates. It also issues and backs other securitization products, facilitates various credit risk transfer mechanisms, and extends additional mortgage-related guarantees. Its diverse clientele includes banks and other depository institutions, insurance companies, asset management firms, central banks, pension funds, state and local government entities, real estate investment trusts, brokers and dealers, and a broad spectrum of lending organizations. The corporation was founded in 1970 and is based in McLean, Virginia.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Financial - Mortgages sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $FMCC.

Financial - Mortgages · Financial Services

Mortgage origination volume is directly rate-sensitive; refi activity is minimal at current rates while purchase originations depend on housing turnover. A rate cut cycle would be the most significant catalyst for volume recovery.

What this means for $FMCC

Partial — insurance earnings follow combined ratio and investment income dynamics, partially correlated to industry macro; Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation, commonly known as Freddie Mac, is a key .

Top industry ETF

$XLFFinancial Select Sector SPDR
+5.6%YTD
+7.9%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
-1527.0How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
97.3%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
94.7%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
389%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
0.0Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
17.9%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
100%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
44.0Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Jul 30, 2026$1.19$0.89+34.2%
Q1 2026Apr 30, 2026$1.10$0.91+21.1%
Q4 2025Feb 12, 2026$0.86$0.89-3.0%
Q3 2025Oct 30, 2025$0.86$0.85+0.4%
Next earningsThu, Oct 29·consensus EPS $0.94

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q2 FY26$34.1B+4.1%100%96.8%$-0.00$2.8B
Q1 FY26$33.6B+3.3%100%96.6%$0.01$3.9B
Q4 FY25$33.7B+10.9%100%93.1%$-0.00$2.6B
Q3 FY25$33.6B+5.8%100%92.2%$-0.00$5.1B

Forward consensus

3-year forecast · up to 3 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$24.7B$24.2B – $25.3B$4.07$3.96 – $4.213
FY27$25.6B$25.1B – $26.3B$3.91$3.80 – $4.043
FY28$26.7B$26.3B – $27.0B$0.00$0.00 – $0.002

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.5×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.19%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.+0.0%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.-19.8%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatHigh float · 650.1M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today0.1% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β1.745-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.ListedOTCListed on an over-the-counter market (PNK / OTCQB / OTCQX), not a major exchange. Lower disclosure requirements and thinner liquidity.

SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

8-KPress release / Reg FDMay 48-K — Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
+ 32 other (16 ABS-15G/As · 12 ABS-15Gs · 2 earnings 8-Ks · 2 10-Qs) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Mortgage Rates Hold Steadyglobenewswire.com·4d agoFreddie Mac Issues Monthly Volume Summary for July 2026globenewswire.com·5d agoOksenholt Capital Management LLC Releases White Paper; One Company, Two Charters: A Path to a $1 Trillion Fannie-Freddie Platformbusinesswire.com·6d agoMortgage Rates Decline for Second Consecutive Weekglobenewswire.com·11d agoOksenholt Capital Challenges Pershing Square's Discounted Freddie Mac Valuationbusinesswire.com·17d ago

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