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TickerTalks›$ETSY
ETETSY

Etsy, Inc.

Strong FundamentalsStrong FundamentalsRevenue growing 3% YoY at strong marginsStreet coverage with positive forward estimatesConsistent chatter on X (156/wk), no spike
$ETSY·$6.5B·Specialty Retail·Consumer Cyclical
$72.84+1.9%YTD+30.2%1Y+3.3%
Price updated 12h ago·X counts updated 4d ago
ETETSY
$ETSYEtsy, Inc.
$72.84+1.89%156 posts1×
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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On X

Top X posts

The complete picture of $ETSY on X — how loud the conversation is right now, how it has trended over the last two weeks, and which way the crowd is leaning.

156X posts · last 7 days
Sep 14Sep 27
Chatter Meter
1×
QuietNormal · 1×Loud

How loud $ETSY's conversation on X is versus its own normal — 1× is typical, higher means busier. Right now it's about its usual level.

Mixed sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data10 posts analyzed · as of 2026-08-31

The conversation is mixed and centers on a recurring bear framing that AppLovin "trades at roughly the same valuation" as Etsy despite better margins and growth, with one poster asking "Make it make sense". Others counter with bullish momentum notes — analyst PT raises, a Consumer Discretionary bullish scan, and a $13M call position up 18% — plus the datapoint that Meta's consumer agent Hatch is being trained on Etsy alongside DoorDash and Yelp.

Read what X is saying about $ETSY

  • Bullish vs bearish call — with the AI summary of the day's posts
  • Divergence flag when the top-engagement posts argue the other side
  • How loud the conversation is versus this ticker's own normal
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AI verdictAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

TickerTalks' own read on what's driving $ETSY — fundamentals, momentum, or an event — and whether it agrees with the X crowd.

Proven numbersWinding up for a moveAI verdict · as of 2026-10-02

Trading in a tight range and building pressure — a move looks likely soon, but the direction isn't clear yet.

Etsy is quietly up 30% YTD on PT raises and consumer-agent flow — the bear framing is still the APP comp.

Etsy runs the online marketplace for handmade, vintage, and custom goods — a profitable niche platform in a tough e-commerce environment. The business is slow but durable.

  • The business is profitable but barely growing: Q1 revenue +3.1% YoY at a 14% operating margin and ROIC of 15.3% — a cash-flowing marketplace that's not re-accelerating, which is the honest tension.
  • The sell-side has turned constructive: analyst PT raises and a Consumer Discretionary bullish scan plus a $13M call position up 18% — tactical bullish flow against a stock that has caught the YTD rotation.
  • The comparison bear case is substantive: AppLovin trades at a similar multiple with much better margins and growth — "make it make sense" is the honest challenge, and it is a legitimate relative-value framing.

Nov 4 Q3 is the gate — any GMS reacceleration past 5% plus continued operating-margin discipline extends the move. A GMS deceleration or any Meta Hatch consumer-agent commentary that implies real traffic competition and the stock gives back some of the YTD gain.

What to watch: Nov 4 Q3 — GMS growth, take-rate trajectory, operating-margin direction, and any commentary on Meta's Hatch or AI-agent traffic. A GMS deceleration is the clear invalidator.

On the calendar: 2026-11-04 — Q3 earnings

Read the AI verdict on $ETSY

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • Whether TickerTalks' read agrees with or diverges from the X crowd
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Online marketplace connecting buyers with independent sellers of handmade, vintage, and custom goods; also operates Depop for secondhand apparel.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Specialty Retail sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $ETSY.

Specialty Retail · Consumer Cyclical

No material change from last week — Consumer discretionary bifurcation deepens as XRT falls -7.

What this means for $ETSY

Neutral — Online marketplace connecting buyers with independent sellers of handmade, vintage, and custom goods; also operates Depop for secondhand apparel.

Top industry ETF

$XRTSPDR S&P Retail ETF
-4.3%YTD
-4.3%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
26.6How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
15.3%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
14.3%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
9.2%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
2.6Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
-25.5%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
72.0%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
-2.7Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Aug 5, 2026$0.98$0.75+31.2%
Q1 2026Apr 29, 2026$0.89$0.62+43.5%
Q4 2025Feb 19, 2026$0.92$0.88+4.5%
Q3 2025Oct 29, 2025$0.63$0.52+21.2%
Next earningsWed, Nov 4·consensus EPS $1.31

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$631.3M+3.1%72.2%19.0%$0.72$70.9M
Q4 FY25$881.6M+3.5%73.1%14.7%$1.13$307.9M
Q3 FY25$678.0M+2.4%71.3%12.2%$0.76$205.1M
Q2 FY25$672.7M+3.8%71.2%11.4%$0.28$88.8M

Forward consensus

5-year forecast · up to 22 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$2.8B$2.8B – $2.9B$3.32$2.79 – $3.8822
FY27$3.0B$2.9B – $3.1B$4.57$3.87 – $5.2822
FY28$3.1B$3.0B – $3.2B$5.24$4.01 – $6.9821
FY29$3.3B$3.2B – $3.4B$6.04$5.80 – $6.2310
FY30$3.5B$3.3B – $3.5B$6.91$6.63 – $7.1310

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.9×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.66%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.-7.3%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.+11.1%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatMid float · 93.8M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today2.9% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β1.815-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellSep 3Colburn Richard Edward IiiChief Product & Tech Officer2.9K sh$239KSellSep 3Josh SilvermanChair1.7K sh$140KSellSep 1Frederick R WilsonDirector20.0K sh$1.6MSellSep 1Josh SilvermanChair11.7K sh$957KSellAug 26Ballard Charles AndrewDirector4.5K sh$368KSellAug 17Merilee BuckleyCHIEF ACCOUNTING OFFICER405 sh$32KSellAug 17Marla J BlowDirector300 sh$24KSellAug 10Colburn Richard Edward IiiChief Product & Tech Officer8.3K sh$677KSellAug 4Charles BakerCFO1.6K sh$134KSellAug 4Josh SilvermanChair6.3K sh$529K
1–10 of 26
+ 50 other (31 exempts · 10 inkinds · 9 awards) in window

See when $ETSY insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

8-KRestructuring / exit costsAug 58-K — Item 2.02: Earnings release · Item 2.05: Restructuring / exit costs · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD · Item 8.01: Other event
AI summary

Etsy, Inc. filed an 8-K on August 5, 2026 reporting Q2 2026 earnings via a shareholder letter and disclosing a material restructuring plan. On August 3, 2026, Etsy's Audit Committee approved a plan to cut approximately 220 employees — roughly 12% of the workforce — bringing headcount to approximately 1,600, with the goal of simplifying organizational structure. Estimated charges are approximately $35 million (largely cash: severance, benefits, and related costs), expected to be fully recognized by end of Q3 2026. This restructuring is highly material — it signals Etsy is rightsizing its cost base in response to continued marketplace GMV pressures and represents a significant strategic reorganization.

8-KAcquisition completedJul 308-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement · Item 2.01: Acquisition completed · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
AI summary

Etsy Inc entered into the Second Amendment to its Amended and Restated 2023 Credit Agreement on July 30, 2026, with JPMorgan Chase Bank N.A. as administrative agent, amending the facility to permit certain asset dispositions. Item 2.01 is also triggered, indicating Etsy simultaneously completed a sale or disposition of a business or significant assets. The 2023 Credit Agreement was previously amended in June 2025. This is a material event — the combination of a credit amendment permitting a disposition and an Item 2.01 trigger signals Etsy completed a strategic divestiture (likely of a marketplace subsidiary), representing a meaningful portfolio simplification whose financial terms are in the attached exhibits.

8-KMaterial agreementJul 168-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement
AI summary

Etsy and eBay executed a Second Amendment to their Purchase Agreement on July 12, 2026 for eBay's acquisition of Depop (Etsy's wholly-owned subsidiary). The UK Competition and Markets Authority cleared the transaction on July 15, 2026, fixing the closing date at July 30, 2026. The amendment updates the closing condition assessment window to events occurring on or after July 1, 2026 only. CMA clearance removes the primary regulatory hurdle; this deal is now on track to close within two weeks.

8-KShareholder voteJun 128-K — Item 5.07: Shareholder vote
AI summary

Etsy held its 2026 Annual Meeting on June 9, 2026. Class II directors M. Michele Burns, Josh Silverman, and Fred Wilson were elected (Wilson received significantly lower support: 46.4M for vs. 21.4M withheld). Shareholders approved named executive officer compensation and ratified PricewaterhouseCoopers as auditor. Proposal 4 to amend the 2024 Equity Incentive Plan to increase authorized shares was also voted on (outcome not visible in excerpt). Wilson's contested vote reflects ongoing shareholder scrutiny of board composition.

8-KMaterial agreementMay 288-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement
AI summary

Etsy, Inc. filed an 8-K under Item 1.01 (Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement) for an event dated May 21, 2026. The body excerpt does not include the agreement details — only standard SEC boilerplate and registrant information are visible. The nature of the material agreement (e.g., credit facility, partnership, licensing deal) and the counterparty are in the exhibits or the full filing body not captured in the available excerpt.

+ 11 other (4 13Gs · 3 proxys · 2 10-Qs · 1 earnings 8-K) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Hobby Boom or Travel Bust? Here Are 3 Stocks to Ride the Trendmarketbeat.com·1d agoPayoneer Renews Partnership with Etsy Through 2029prnewswire.com·2d agoEtsy Aims to Get More Personal and Boost Business With AIwsj.com·3d agoEtsy's Next Front Door: How AI Could Create Millions Of Smaller Mask Momentsseekingalpha.com·4d agoOptions Corner: Unpacking ETSY Key Levels Following Upgradeyoutube.com·14d ago

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Voices on X · top 1 · last 7 days

TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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