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CVCVNA

Carvana Co.

Hot onWhy it's trendingX chatter spiked vs its recent normMoving on elevated volumeBacked by solid revenue growth
$CVNA·$70B·Auto - Dealerships·Consumer Cyclical
$58.83-3.0%YTD-28.2%1Y-14.7%
Price updated 4h ago·X counts updated 5d ago
CVCVNA
$CVNACarvana Co.
$58.83-2.95%436 posts2×
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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On X

Top X posts

The complete picture of $CVNA on X — how loud the conversation is right now, how it has trended over the last two weeks, and which way the crowd is leaning.

436X posts · last 7 days
Sep 29Oct 11
Chatter Meter
2×
QuietNormal · 1×Loud

How loud $CVNA's conversation on X is versus its own normal — 1× is typical, higher means busier. Right now it's running louder than usual, louder than 97% of tracked names.

Mixed sentiment⚠AI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data6 posts analyzed · as of 2026-09-11 · top-engagement diverged

Carvana is mixed on X — 2h impulse-up print with Stocks Flash pattern, uncrowded trade-idea framing. Bearish: December $45 put interest, TA doesn't work well on this chart, and Mark Walter pals annuity-loot investigative report noise. Signal split.

Read what X is saying about $CVNA

  • Bullish vs bearish call — with the AI summary of the day's posts
  • Divergence flag when the top-engagement posts argue the other side
  • How loud the conversation is versus this ticker's own normal
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AI verdictAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

TickerTalks' own read on what's driving $CVNA — fundamentals, momentum, or an event — and whether it agrees with the X crowd.

Proven numbersSelling offAI verdict · as of 2026-10-02

Falling on heavy selling — points lower unless it turns around.

Carvana at 20% of 52-week range despite the biggest sales beat since 2025 — the chart isn't buying it.

Carvana operates the dominant online used-car marketplace plus financing — the restructured-and-recovered post-bankruptcy-threat version of the stock. The stock is down 25% YTD and 20% of its 52-week range on cohort pressure despite accelerating fundamentals.

  • The P&L is actually accelerating: revenue grew 52% YoY to $6.43B last quarter at a 9.2% operating margin and EPS $0.35 — Jefferies flags Carvana on pace for the biggest sales beat since early 2025, which contradicts the chart action.
  • At 30x trailing earnings and 3.2x sales for a 52% revenue grower with positive operating margin, Carvana is reasonably priced on the growth-rate; the market is pricing a re-rating lower on used-car-cycle concerns.
  • Officer Taira's $1.18M sale at $70.58 is a conviction trim at these levels; December $45 put interest from the sentiment summary is the explicit downside hedging that lines up with the breaking-down tape.

Breaking-down holds unless Oct 28 earnings confirm units sold growth above 25% YoY and gross profit per unit stays above $7,500. A soft units-sold print, or any specific commentary on auto-ABS funding costs rising, is what seals the de-rating; a GPU per unit breakout above $8,500 is what breaks the tape higher — the mechanics support the fundamentals, but the chart is pricing cyclical doubt.

Agrees with X sentimentThe X mixed read is accurate — the 2h impulse-up print and the uncrowded-trade framing are bullish setup elements, while the December $45 put interest and the Mark Walter annuity-noise investigative report are the honest counter-signals. Both sides describe the breaking-down tape.

What to watch: Oct 28 earnings — units sold growth above 25% YoY, gross profit per unit (GPU) above $7,500, auto-ABS funding cost trajectory, FY27 guide. Soft units sold or GPU below $7,000 is what seals the breaking-down tape.

On the calendar: 2026-10-28 — Q3 FY26 earnings

Read the AI verdict on $CVNA

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • Whether TickerTalks' read agrees with or diverges from the X crowd
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Online used-car marketplace with proprietary inspection, reconditioning, and financing infrastructure targeting a fragmented $1T US auto market.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Auto - Dealerships sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $CVNA.

Auto - Dealerships · Consumer Cyclical

No material change from last week — Wholesale used-vehicle digital auction consolidation is the structural story: Copart's $1.

What this means for $CVNA

Neutral — Online used-car marketplace with proprietary inspection, reconditioning, and financing infrastructure targeting a fragmented $1T US auto market.

Industry benchmark

5-name peer basket
-2.7%YTD
-4.0%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
29.7How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
-39.6%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
9.2%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
1.0%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
3.2Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
57.2%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
20.0%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.2Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Jul 29, 2026$0.42$0.39+8.6%
Q1 2026Apr 29, 2026$0.34$0.32+7.4%
Q4 2025Feb 18, 2026$0.84$0.23+265.2%
Q3 2025Oct 29, 2025$0.21$0.27-22.2%
Next earningsWed, Oct 28·consensus EPS $0.44

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$6.4B+52.0%19.8%9.0%$0.35$56.0M
Q4 FY25$5.6B+58.0%18.8%7.6%$1.90$379.0M
Q3 FY25$5.6B+54.5%20.3%9.8%$0.22$307.0M
Q2 FY25$4.8B+41.9%21.2%10.6%$0.27$-2.0M

Forward consensus

5-year forecast · up to 17 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$29.0B$28.2B – $30.1B$1.62$1.57 – $1.7916
FY27$36.4B$34.4B – $39.4B$2.20$2.11 – $2.3417
FY28$44.8B$38.6B – $51.6B$2.74$2.42 – $3.0012
FY29$50.0B$46.5B – $54.2B$2.59$2.35 – $2.8710
FY30$60.4B$56.1B – $65.4B$2.85$2.59 – $3.166

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.1.7×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.14%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.-11.1%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.-14.3%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

β3.555-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellOct 12Thomas TairaPresident5.6K sh$364KSellOct 1Mark W. JenkinsCFO63.8K sh$3.9MSellOct 1Stephen R PalmerPresident5.0K sh$308KSellSep 14Thomas TairaPresident16.8K sh$1.2MSellSep 1Benjamin E. HustonCOO50.0K sh$3.6MSellSep 1Stephen R PalmerPresident5.0K sh$358KSellSep 1Mark W. JenkinsCFO63.8K sh$4.6MSellAug 14Ira J. PlattDirector15.0K sh$1.1MSellAug 14Quayle J DanforthDirector14.5K sh$1.1MSellAug 13Ira J. PlattDirector15.0K sh$1.1M
1–10 of 27
+ 80 other (54 inkinds · 13 exempts · 13 awards) in window

See when $CVNA insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
Free, forever. No credit card.

SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

8-KMaterial agreementAug 148-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement · Item 2.03: Material debt obligation
AI summary

Carvana entered into a $1.66 billion senior secured Term Loan B facility (administrative agent: Barclays Bank PLC) on August 14, 2026, maturing August 14, 2033, priced at SOFR + 2.25% and issued at 99.75% of par with 0.25% quarterly amortization. Proceeds will fully redeem all outstanding 9.0%/11.0%/13.0% Cash/PIK Senior Secured Notes due 2030 — $1.0 billion on August 15, 2026 and the remainder on August 22, 2026. Transformative debt refinancing — swapping out expensive PIK notes for lower-cost term debt significantly improves Carvana's interest burden and cash flow profile.

8-KOfficer or director changeMay 68-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change · Item 5.03: Charter amendment · Item 5.07: Shareholder vote
AI summary

CVNA disclosed a personnel change (8-K Item 5.02, dated 2026-05-06). An executive departure and a new appointment are both reported. Personnel changes are generally administrative; materiality depends on seniority and circumstances.

SC 13D/AActivist amendmentMay 1SC 13D/A
AI summary

Ernest C. Garcia II filed an amended Schedule 13D on CVNA disclosing beneficial ownership (42,442,317.00 shares) as of 2026-05-01. The filer's stated intent is passive investment with no plan to influence control of the company.

+ 10 other (5 13Gs · 2 10-Qs · 2 earnings 8-Ks · 1 S-8 POS) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Brokers Suggest Investing in Carvana (CVNA): Read This Before Placing a Betzacks.com·2d agoComparing Monro Muffler Brake (NASDAQ:MNRO) and Carvana (NYSE:CVNA)defenseworld.net·2d agoCarvana Expands Same-Day Delivery to Jacksonvillebusinesswire.com·3d agoCarvana (CVNA) Ascends While Market Falls: Some Facts to Notezacks.com·3d agoCarvana and Rush Soccer Extend Multi-Year Partnership, Launch Youth Soccer Scholarship Fundbusinesswire.com·4d ago

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TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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