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CGCG

The Carlyle Group Inc.

$CG·$17B·Asset Management·Financial Services
$49.28-4.1%YTD-14.5%1Y-24.1%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-08-08: 3 posts2026-08-09: 7 posts2026-08-10: 9 posts2026-08-11: 8 posts2026-08-12: 16 posts2026-08-13: 6 posts2026-08-14: 5 posts54+48%
Price updated 22h ago·X counts updated 20h ago
CGCG
$CGThe Carlyle Group Inc.
$49.28-4.14%54 posts+48%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Top X posts

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $CG, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Proven numbersWinding up for a moveAI verdict · as of 2026-08-14

Trading in a tight range and building pressure — a move looks likely soon, but the direction isn't clear yet.

Alt-asset manager +6.5% today on PE sector bounce — coiled at 39% of range, insider $5.74M activity is the caveat.

The Carlyle Group is a mid-cap alternative-asset manager whose stock jumped 6.5% today on the specific private-equity sector bounce — grouped with APO, ARES, BX, KKR, and OWL. Down 14.5% YTD and 21% year-over-year, coiled at 39% of the 52-week range on the specific fund-raising cycle.

  • The private-equity peer-basket bounce is the load-bearing flow context: Carlyle grouped with APO, ARES, BX, KKR, and OWL in a specific "private-equity bounce narrative" reflects specific sector-wide rotation — the type of coordinated flow that supports the +6.5% single-day move.
  • The unusual options volume is a specific technical signal: bulls note unusual options-volume compared with peers reflects specific speculative positioning ahead of the print — the type of pattern that supports the "sleeper of ours" bull-tape framing.
  • The insider tape is a real caveat: officer Mark Jenkins F-InKind of $5.74M on Aug 1 reflects specific tax-related activity, not directional — but the magnitude means the transaction is worth tracking for cluster development.
  • The Q1 revenue decline reflects the specific fund-management cycle: revenue of $190M fell 77% year-over-year on the specific pattern where alt-asset-manager revenues can vary with fund-raise cycles — the type of setup where forward-looking guide matters more than trailing revenue.

Coming into Nov 6 earnings, the tape needs specific fund-raising cadence commentary, any AI-infrastructure-financing consortium updates, and reaffirmed capital-return commentary. A clean beat plus visible fund-raising activity extends the just-triggered bounce; any specific fund-raise slowdown is what would compress even the modest 27x P/E multiple.

Agrees with X sentimentAgree with the constructively-bullish read — the PE-peer-basket bounce and unusual options-volume are real, aligned signals. Jenkins's $5.74M F-InKind reflects specific tax-related activity rather than directional selling, but the magnitude warrants tracking.

What to watch: Nov 6 Q2 earnings — specific fund-raising cadence commentary, any AI-infrastructure-financing consortium updates, and reaffirmed capital-return commentary. Any specific fund-raise slowdown compresses even the modest 27x P/E multiple.

On the calendar: 2026-11-06 — Q2 earnings

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Bullish sentiment5 posts analyzed · as of 2026-08-10

Carlyle chatter is very small but constructive. Posts flag Q2 earnings out, unusual option volume compared with peers, and a small-account swing describing an 8% gain since entry as it being 'a lil sleeper of ours that nobody was really watching.' Also grouped alongside APO, ARES, BX, KKR and OWL in a private-equity bounce narrative. No bear voices in the sample.

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $CG

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Global alternative asset manager specializing in private equity, credit, and real assets via leveraged buyouts, minority stakes, and structured credit.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Asset Management sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $CG.

Asset Management · Financial Services

No material change from last week — AI infrastructure (data centers, power, logistics) and Bitcoin treasury strategies, both of which require patient institutional capital that private market..

What this means for $CG

Partial — Global alternative asset manager specializing in private equity, credit, and real assets via leveraged buyouts, minority stakes, and structured credit; partial earnings exposure to asset management demand dynamics through its product portfolio.

Top industry ETF

$IAIiShares U.S. Broker-Dealers & Securities Exchanges ETF
+5.0%YTD
+8.4%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
27.2How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
2.4%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
22.2%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
-6.2%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
3.7Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
9.7%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
73.1%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
2.7Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Aug 4, 2026$1.07$0.91+17.5%
Q1 2026May 6, 2026$0.89$0.93-4.5%
Q4 2025Feb 6, 2026$1.01$1.00+1.4%
Q3 2025Oct 31, 2025$0.98$1.02-3.9%
Next earningsFri, Nov 6·consensus EPS $1.07

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$189.6M-76.5%190%-74.1%$-0.37$440.9M
Q4 FY25$1.8B+98.8%54.5%27.1%$1.00$410.3M
Q3 FY25$780.5M-47.5%73.5%11.0%$0.00$-2.6B
Q2 FY25$1.2B+27.8%83.1%37.5%$0.89$864.8M

Forward consensus

4-year forecast · up to 6 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$3.7B$3.5B – $3.8B$3.69$3.38 – $4.055
FY27$5.1B$4.8B – $5.5B$5.11$4.26 – $5.696
FY28$5.5B$5.4B – $5.6B$5.89$4.63 – $7.152
FY29$5.9B$5.6B – $6.1B$6.18$5.70 – $6.471

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.1.5×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.32%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.+8.8%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.-4.0%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatHigh float · 261.7M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today2.0% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β1.825-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellMar 19David M. RubensteinDirector500.0K sh$23.3M
+ 33 other (26 awards · 6 inkinds · 1 gift) in window

See when $CG insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
Free, forever. No credit card.

SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

3New insider — initial holdingsJul 83
AI summary

Kate Elizabeth Heinzelman, newly appointed General Counsel of The Carlyle Group Inc. (CG), effective June 29, 2026, filed a Form 3 disclosing no securities beneficially owned. Routine administrative filing for a new reporting officer.

8-KOfficer or director changeJun 58-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change · Item 5.07: Shareholder vote
AI summary

The Carlyle Group Inc. held its 2026 Annual Meeting of Shareholders on June 3, 2026; shareholders approved the Amended and Restated 2012 Equity Incentive Plan, which the Board had previously adopted subject to shareholder ratification. Shareholder approval of Carlyle's long-term equity incentive plan amendment enables continued equity compensation for this alternative asset management firm's management team.

8-KOfficer or director changeJun 18-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
AI summary

The Carlyle Group Inc. appointed Kate Heinzelman as General Counsel effective June 29, 2026, succeeding Jeffrey W. Ferguson who announced his retirement in December 2025 and will transition to a Senior Advisor role; Carlyle issued a press release announcing the transition. Smooth planned succession at Carlyle's legal function; Ferguson's Senior Advisor role ensures continuity and knowledge transfer while Heinzelman leads the function.

S-3ASRAuto-shelf registrationMay 8S-3ASR
AI summary

The Carlyle Group filed an automatic shelf registration statement (S-3ASR) on May 8, 2026, enabling the company to offer and sell unspecified amounts of various securities on a delayed or continuous basis. As a large accelerated filer, Carlyle is eligible for this expedited process that becomes effective immediately upon filing without SEC staff review. The registration provides financial flexibility to access capital markets for potential debt, equity, or hybrid securities offerings as opportunities arise. No specific offering terms, size, or timing are determined at the time of filing.

8-KPress release / Reg FDFeb 268-K — Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
SC 13D/AActivist amendmentFeb 18SC 13D/A
SC 13D/AActivist amendmentFeb 18SC 13D/A
+ 17 other (6 13Gs · 2 10-Qs · 2 13Fs · 2 earnings 8-Ks) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Bank of America Corp DE Cuts Stake in Carlyle Group Inc. $CGdefenseworld.net·5d agoCarlyle Secured Lending Q2 Earnings Call Highlightsmarketbeat.com·8d agoPrime Capital Financial Announces Strategic Partnership With Carlyle to Accelerate Next Phase of Growthbusinesswire.com·9d agoCarlyle Secured Lending, Inc. Announces Financial Results For Second Quarter Ended June 30, 2026, Declares Third Quarter 2026 Dividend of $0.35 Per Common Shareglobenewswire.com·9d agoCarlyle Q2 Earnings Beat Estimates on Higher AUM, Expenses Rise Y/Yzacks.com·9d ago

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Voices on X · top 3 · last 7 days

TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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