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CGCG

The Carlyle Group Inc.

$CG·$15B·Asset Management·Financial Services
$41.40-1.2%YTD-30.1%1Y-18.3%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-06-20: 0 posts2026-06-21: 1 posts2026-06-22: 4 posts2026-06-23: 1 posts2026-06-24: 8 posts2026-06-25: 9 posts2026-06-26: 1 posts24
Price updated 17h ago·X counts updated 17h ago
CGCG
$CGThe Carlyle Group Inc.
$41.40-1.19%24 posts
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $CG, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Broken storyStalledAI verdict · as of 2026-06-27

The move has stalled — likely just drifts unless something new shows up.

Alternative-asset manager stuck in a dealmaking lull; fee-related earnings holding while realizations dry up.

Carlyle Group is one of the big private-markets franchises — buyout, real assets, credit, secondaries — and the recent quarters have shown what happens when exits are slow: realized performance fees collapse and revenue swings hard quarter to quarter. The fee-earning AUM and management-fee stream remain steady, but distributable earnings depend on selling portfolio companies, and the IPO and M&A windows have been narrow. The stock has lost about 30% year-to-date.

  • Q1 revenue $190M down 77% year-over-year — masking lumpy realized-performance-fee timing
  • EPS $0.89 versus $0.93 estimate — small miss, fundraising and deployment held up better than headlines suggest
  • Stock down 30% year-to-date and 18% over twelve months — trading at the 3rd percentile of 52-week range
  • Strategic moves: Content Partners credit continuation vehicle, Compliance Group iQuality launch — fee-machine still working
  • Trading well below 50-day and 200-day moving averages — momentum is broken but multiple compression may be excessive

The August 4 print needs to show realized performance fees rebuilding or fee-related earnings accelerating. If neither inflects, the rerating thesis stays paused.

What to watch: Q2 earnings on August 4 — specifically distributable earnings trajectory, fee-related earnings growth, and realized performance fee disclosures. Watch any commentary on fundraising pace for the next flagship buyout vintage and credit-segment Carlyle Secured Lending performance. M&A and IPO market reopen signals matter materially.

On the calendar: Q2 2026 earnings on 2026-08-04

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $CG

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

The Carlyle Group Inc. is a leading global investment firm that employs both direct investment and fund-of-fund strategies. Its direct investment expertise is extensive, encompassing management-led leveraged buyouts, privatizations, and divestitures, as well as strategic minority equity investments. The firm also allocates capital to structured credit opportunities, global distressed and corporate situations, and small-to-middle market enterprises. Its venture and growth capital activities span the full spectrum, from seed/startup and early-stage funding to emerging growth, turnaround situations, mid-venture, late-venture, and Private Investment in Public Equity (PIPES). Carlyle structures its investments across four primary segments: Corporate Private Equity, Real Assets, Global Market Strategies, and Solutions. Carlyle's investment interests are remarkably broad, covering an extensive array of sectors worldwide. These include major industries like industrials (such as manufacturing, building products, chemicals, and metals), consumer and retail (including food and beverage, consumer products, and services), aerospace and defense, technology (covering software, semiconductors, and communications infrastructure), healthcare (services, pharmaceuticals, and medical devices), energy and power, real estate (from office and hotel properties to residential and specialized segments like student housing and senior living), financial services, transportation, telecommunications, media, business services, agribusiness, fintech, utilities, and gaming. The firm actively seeks out growing businesses, including those with overleveraged balance sheets. Typically, Carlyle aims to hold its investments for four to six years, although some may be held for three to five years, with specific mandates for automotive and transportation sector holdings also falling within the four-to-six-year range. With a significant global footprint, Carlyle actively invests across North America (including specific U.S. regions, Mexico, Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Peru), Europe (encompassing Western, Central-Eastern, and Nordic regions), Asia (including India, Southeast Asia, Korea, Japan, and China), Australia, New Zealand, the Middle East, and both Sub-Saharan and North Africa. The firm has particular geographic interests, such as focusing on the food, financial, and healthcare industries in Western China, and in Japan, it specifically targets companies valued between $100 million and $150 million, avoiding those with over 1,000 employees. Financially, Carlyle typically commits $1 million to $50 million for venture investments and $50 million to $2 billion for buyouts. It targets companies with an enterprise value between $31.57 million and $1 billion, sales ranging from $10 million to $500 million, a market capitalization exceeding $50 million, and EBITDA between $5 million and $25 million. Carlyle is flexible regarding its ownership stake, often taking either a majority or a minority position, and frequently acts as the lead equity investor, originating and structuring transactions. The Carlyle Group Inc. was founded in 1987 and is headquartered in Washington, D.C. It maintains a robust global presence with additional offices in 21 countries across five continents: North America, South America, Asia, Australia, and Europe.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Asset Management sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $CG.

Asset Management · Financial Services

Alternative asset managers are deploying capital into two parallel structural opportunities — AI infrastructure (data centers, power, logistics) and Bitcoin treasury strategies, both of which require patient institutional capital that private market firms uniquely provide. The CLARITY Act regulatory clarity accelerates crypto AUM flows at capital markets firms.

Top industry ETF

$IAIiShares U.S. Broker-Dealers & Securities Exchanges ETF
-1.2%YTD
+5.6%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
27.2How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
2.4%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
22.2%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
-6.2%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
3.7Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
9.7%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
73.1%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
2.7Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q1 2026May 6, 2026$0.89$0.93-4.5%
Q4 2025Feb 6, 2026$1.01$1.00+1.4%
Q3 2025Oct 31, 2025$0.98$1.02-3.9%
Q2 2025Aug 5, 2025$0.91$0.89+2.5%
Next earningsTue, Aug 4·consensus EPS $0.92

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$189.6M-76.5%190%-74.1%$-0.37$440.9M
Q4 FY25$1.8B+98.8%54.5%27.1%$1.00$410.3M
Q3 FY25$780.5M-47.5%73.5%11.0%$0.00$-2.6B
Q2 FY25$1.2B+27.8%83.1%37.5%$0.89$864.8M

Forward consensus

4-year forecast · up to 5 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$3.8B$3.4B – $4.2B$4.03$3.56 – $4.594
FY27$5.2B$4.8B – $5.6B$5.16$4.20 – $5.705
FY28$6.1B$5.8B – $6.3B$5.85$4.67 – $7.031
FY29$5.9B$5.3B – $6.5B$6.16$5.30 – $6.921

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.1.6×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.3%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.-11.7%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.-23.5%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatHigh float · 261.7M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today2.1% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β1.825-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellMar 19David M. RubensteinDirector500.0K sh$23.3M
+ 43 other (30 awards · 12 inkinds · 1 gift) in window

See when $CG insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
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Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Carlyle Secured Lending: Major Revaluation Opportunityseekingalpha.com·1d agoCompliance Group Reveals iQuality, an AI-Native End-to-End Compliance Intelligence Solution for Life Sciencesbusinesswire.com·10d agoContent Partners and Carlyle Global Credit Announce Single-Asset Continuation Vehicle Providing New Capital for Film and TV Growthprnewswire.com·11d agoCarlyle Secured Lending: Downside Risks Remain Due To Software Exposureseekingalpha.com·15d agoThe Carlyle Group Inc. (CG) Presents at Morgan Stanley US Financials Conference 2026 Transcriptseekingalpha.com·17d ago

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Voices on X · last 7 days

No standout posts about $CG on X in the last 7 days.

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