TickerTalks
Browse all tickers →
TickerTalks›$CG
CGCG

The Carlyle Group Inc.

$CG·$14B·Asset Management·Financial Services
$40.03+1.5%YTD-32.4%1Y-37.1%
Price updated 2d ago·X counts updated 7h ago
CGCG
$CGThe Carlyle Group Inc.
$40.03+1.55%54 posts1.1×
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
Loading…

On X

The complete picture of $CG on X — how loud the conversation is right now, how it has trended over the last two weeks, and which way the crowd is leaning.

54X posts · last 7 days
Sep 10Sep 27
Chatter Meter
1.1×
QuietNormal · 1×Loud

How loud $CG's conversation on X is versus its own normal — 1× is typical, higher means busier. Right now it's about its usual level, louder than 56% of tracked names.

Neutral sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data6 posts analyzed · as of 2026-09-01

CG chatter this week is entirely unusual-options-scanner mentions — the ticker shows up repeatedly on both call and put unusual-volume lists but nothing directional or fundamental. There is essentially no thesis, catalyst, or sentiment reading in the corpus. Not enough signal to characterize direction on Carlyle beyond 'someone is trading options in size.'

Read what X is saying about $CG

  • Bullish vs bearish call — with the AI summary of the day's posts
  • Divergence flag when the top-engagement posts argue the other side
  • How loud the conversation is versus this ticker's own normal
Free, forever. No credit card.

AI verdictAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

TickerTalks' own read on what's driving $CG — fundamentals, momentum, or an event — and whether it agrees with the X crowd.

Broken storyWinding up for a moveAI verdict · as of 2026-09-27

Trading in a tight range and building pressure — a move looks likely soon, but the direction isn't clear yet.

Carlyle is down 32% YTD at the 4th percentile of range — David Rubenstein just took $17M off the table into the drawdown.

Carlyle Group is a US-listed alternative-asset manager running private-equity, credit, real assets, and infrastructure across global markets. The equity has been sold hard through 2026 as the broader alt-manager cohort de-rated.

  • The base business is choppy: revenue was down 77% YoY last quarter at $190M (comparison distorted by mark-to-market timing) and Q2 hit $1.11B with EPS beating by 17% — a scaled alt-manager where quarterly comparisons are noisy due to fund-realization timing.
  • The valuation is compressed: 27x earnings and 3.7x sales on a business with 22% operating margin and a 10% ROE — priced like an alt-manager where the fee-related earnings story has to reset attention.
  • The insider signal is unusually loud: founder David Rubenstein sold $17M of stock on Sep 11 — a founder-level cash-out of that size on a name already 32% off YTD is exactly the tell the crowd should not skate past.

The Nov 6 print is the arbiter: any raise on fee-related-earnings guide plus commentary on capital-raising restarts the coil; a soft private-credit-fund inflow number or continued founder-level selling is the invalidation. The unusual-options-scanner mentions are 'someone is trading options in size' — that's positioning, not a thesis.

Agrees with X sentimentThe crowd is right that this is thesis-thin in the corpus — but Rubenstein's $17M founder-level sale is the size-relevant tell the tape should be reading, not just unusual-options flow.

What to watch: Nov 6 earnings — fee-related-earnings guide, capital-raising activity, private-credit-fund flows, real-assets marks, and follow-on founder-level insider Form 4s. A fee-related-earnings raise plus capital-raising restarts the coil; continued founder-level selling is the invalidation.

On the calendar: 2026-11-06 — Q3 earnings

Read the AI verdict on $CG

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • Whether TickerTalks' read agrees with or diverges from the X crowd
Free, forever. No credit card.

What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Global alternative asset manager specializing in private equity, credit, and real assets via leveraged buyouts, minority stakes, and structured credit.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Asset Management sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $CG.

Asset Management · Financial Services

No material change from last week — yield-seeking institutional capital continues flowing into private credit and infrastructure alternatives.

What this means for $CG

Partial — Global alternative asset manager specializing in private equity, credit, and real assets via leveraged buyouts, minority stakes, and structured credit.

Top industry ETF

$IAIiShares U.S. Broker-Dealers & Securities Exchanges ETF
+0.5%YTD
+4.0%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
27.2How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
2.4%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
22.2%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
-6.2%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
3.7Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
9.7%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
73.1%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
2.7Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Aug 4, 2026$1.07$0.91+17.5%
Q1 2026May 6, 2026$0.89$0.93-4.5%
Q4 2025Feb 6, 2026$1.01$1.00+1.4%
Q3 2025Oct 31, 2025$0.98$1.02-3.9%
Next earningsFri, Nov 6·consensus EPS $1.06

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$189.6M-76.5%190%-74.1%$-0.37$440.9M
Q4 FY25$1.8B+98.8%54.5%27.1%$1.00$410.3M
Q3 FY25$780.5M-47.5%73.5%11.0%$0.00$-2.6B
Q2 FY25$1.2B+27.8%83.1%37.5%$0.89$864.8M

Forward consensus

4-year forecast · up to 6 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$3.8B$3.7B – $3.9B$3.66$3.46 – $3.805
FY27$5.1B$4.8B – $5.7B$5.14$4.69 – $5.766
FY28$5.5B$5.4B – $5.7B$6.05$4.63 – $7.473
FY29$6.0B$5.7B – $6.3B$6.11$5.74 – $6.521

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.6×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.4%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.-12.8%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.-20.0%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatHigh float · 261.7M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today0.8% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β1.835-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellSep 11David M. RubensteinDirector400.0K sh$17.1M
+ 33 other (26 awards · 6 inkinds · 1 gift) in window

See when $CG insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
Free, forever. No credit card.

SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

3New insider — initial holdingsJul 83
AI summary

Kate Elizabeth Heinzelman, newly appointed General Counsel of The Carlyle Group Inc. (CG), effective June 29, 2026, filed a Form 3 disclosing no securities beneficially owned. Routine administrative filing for a new reporting officer.

8-KOfficer or director changeJun 58-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change · Item 5.07: Shareholder vote
AI summary

The Carlyle Group Inc. held its 2026 Annual Meeting of Shareholders on June 3, 2026; shareholders approved the Amended and Restated 2012 Equity Incentive Plan, which the Board had previously adopted subject to shareholder ratification. Shareholder approval of Carlyle's long-term equity incentive plan amendment enables continued equity compensation for this alternative asset management firm's management team.

8-KOfficer or director changeJun 18-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
AI summary

The Carlyle Group Inc. appointed Kate Heinzelman as General Counsel effective June 29, 2026, succeeding Jeffrey W. Ferguson who announced his retirement in December 2025 and will transition to a Senior Advisor role; Carlyle issued a press release announcing the transition. Smooth planned succession at Carlyle's legal function; Ferguson's Senior Advisor role ensures continuity and knowledge transfer while Heinzelman leads the function.

S-3ASRAuto-shelf registrationMay 8S-3ASR
AI summary

The Carlyle Group filed an automatic shelf registration statement (S-3ASR) on May 8, 2026, enabling the company to offer and sell unspecified amounts of various securities on a delayed or continuous basis. As a large accelerated filer, Carlyle is eligible for this expedited process that becomes effective immediately upon filing without SEC staff review. The registration provides financial flexibility to access capital markets for potential debt, equity, or hybrid securities offerings as opportunities arise. No specific offering terms, size, or timing are determined at the time of filing.

+ 17 other (6 13Gs · 2 10-Qs · 2 13Fs · 2 earnings 8-Ks) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Carlyle Group Inc. (NASDAQ:CG) Stock Has Average Target Price of $58.93 According to Brokeragesdefenseworld.net·2d agoWatching Ashland; Shares Spike Higher, Traders Circulate Unconfirmed Analyst Report Suggesting Ashland Running A Sales Process; Collecting Bids In September, According To Sources, Apollo Global Management And Carlyle Group Are Among The Private Equity Firms Showing Interest In The Cobenzinga.com·13d agoInside Carlyle's Global Investment Conference, Bessent Faces Big Questionsyoutube.com·13d agoCarlyle Group: Asymmetric Return Profileseekingalpha.com·13d agoCarlyle's Fujiyama Sees Investor Excitement in Defense Techyoutube.com·13d ago

More in Asset Management

Peers in the same group — one click to compare setups, fundamentals, and chatter.

$ASST$CYPH$SATA$MGLD$OWL$INV$BN$BX
Voices on X · last 7 days

No standout posts about $CG on X in the last 7 days.

TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

PrivacyTermsSupport