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BABAER

Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. Common Stock

$BAER·$112M·Security & Protection Services·Industrials
$1.94+8.1%YTD+6.0%1Y+5.4%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-07-11: 4 posts2026-07-12: 4 posts2026-07-13: 4 posts2026-07-14: 7 posts2026-07-15: 7 posts2026-07-16: 25 posts2026-07-17: 16 posts67+30%
Price updated 4h ago·X counts updated 4h ago
BABAER
$BAERBridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. Common Stock
$1.94+8.08%67 posts+30%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Top X posts

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $BAER, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Driven by hypeCooling offAI verdict · as of 2026-07-17

Catching its breath after a run — could pick back up or fade from here.

Bridger Aerospace is the wildfire-suppression pure-play — MACD weekly cross plus active suppression season.

Bridger Aerospace is the specific aerial wildfire-suppression services provider — the specific Scooper-runs-plus-fixed-wing-aircraft operator active on the Aspen Acres fire and others. The stock is at 17% of its 52-week range on the specific active-season setup.

Where the picture reads:

  • The commercial catalyst is category-defining: continued active wildfire suppression operations across the US is the specific seasonal-revenue pattern that drives BAER's earnings — meaning the specific season is now the specific catalyst window.
  • The economics are still transitioning: 39% gross margin at essentially breakeven operating margin with -64% FCF yield — meaning BAER is in a specific working-capital-heavy operational period.
  • The tape has cooled: sitting 5.6% below the 50-day and 12% below the 200-day at 17% of the 52-week range with today's -8.9% drop and volume 98% above average — meaning a specific soft catalyst has moved the tape.
  • The specific RedChip conference presentation is a specific institutional-signal window: the July 16 investor conference is the specific event that could have driven the specific tape reaction.

Aug 6 earnings is the trigger. A number confirming continued suppression-revenue plus specific seasonal-cash-flow commentary extends the leg; a soft revenue print with muted commentary is the specific setup for the cool-off to extend.

What to watch: The Aug 6 print — suppression-revenue trajectory, seasonal-cash-flow commentary, and any FY guide change. Above-consensus suppression revenue extends the leg; a soft print continues the cool-off.

On the calendar: 2026-08-06 — Q2 earnings

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Bullish sentiment12 posts analyzed · as of 2026-07-17

Bridger Aerospace is being framed as one of the most direct wildfire-season plays available. The load-bearing catalyst is Bridger securing a US Department of Interior task order (140D0426F0777 under parent 140D0423D0085) worth approximately $5.8M over four months to deploy its most advanced Multi-Mission King Air 350 aircraft with the new dual-sensor configuration. Scoopers dropped 144,000+ gallons on the Fishhook Fire in Colorado in a single day, and four Scoopers were running together (a first for the poster). Wildfire smog is choking the Northeast and Canada/Minnesota fires are leaking across the border. Bridger presented at the RedChip Vertical Economy virtual investor conference on July 16. Skepticism is limited to price weakness attributed to unrelated momentum unwinds rather than any Bridger-specific negative.

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $BAER

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  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Niche aerial wildfire-fighting services company operating large-format aircraft for US state governments.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Security & Protection Services sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $BAER.

Security & Protection Services · Industrials

No material change from last week — BAER's aerial wildfire-fighting serves escalating state government contracts as western US fire seasons intensify, while SUGP's Hong Kong AI-enhanced security..

What this means for $BAER

Partial — Niche aerial wildfire-fighting services company operating large-format aircraft for US state governments; exposure exists but is diluted by diverse end markets and revenue mix.

Top industry ETF

$XLIIndustrial Select Sector SPDR
+15.3%YTD
+18.2%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
-9.0How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
0.1%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
0.2%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
-64.3%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
0.9Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
-21.2%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
38.6%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
7.4Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q1 2026May 6, 2026$-0.69$-0.37-86.5%
Q4 2025Mar 5, 2026$-0.40$-0.30-33.3%
Q3 2025Nov 6, 2025$0.37$0.32+15.6%
Q2 2025Aug 7, 2025$-0.12$-0.28+57.1%
Next earningsThu, Aug 6·consensus EPS $-0.01

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$8.5M-45.6%-100%-297%$-0.69$-26.8M
Q4 FY25$8.5M-45.2%-65.1%-222%$-0.40$-78.4M
Q3 FY25$67.9M+5.2%68.9%57.5%$0.50$34.6M
Q2 FY25$30.8M+136.3%39.2%18.0%$-0.12$515K

Forward consensus

2-year forecast · up to 2 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$138.2M$137.3M – $139.1M-$0.52-$0.52 – -$0.522
FY27$156.4M$155.4M – $157.5M-$0.07-$0.08 – -$0.071

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.1.3×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.24%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.+1.7%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.-4.9%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatLow float · 39.0M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today1.7% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

No open-market buys or sells in the last 180 days.

+ 23 other (21 awards · 2 inkinds) in window

See when $BAER insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

8-KShareholder voteJun 58-K — Item 5.07: Shareholder vote
AI summary

Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. (BAER) disclosed the results of its annual meeting of shareholders in an 8-K filing under Item 5.07. Shareholders voted on ratification of the independent auditor. All management-sponsored proposals were approved by majority shareholder vote. Annual meeting results are a routine disclosure that confirms shareholder ratification of the board's composition and compensation practices.

3New insider — initial holdingsApr 173
AI summary

Justin D. Mogford filed an initial Form 3 for Bridger Aerospace Group (BAER) on April 14, 2026, reporting initial beneficial ownership as a new director or officer at the company's Belgrade, Montana headquarters. Bridger Aerospace operates fixed-wing aircraft for aerial firefighting and surveillance services.

8-KOfficer or director changeMar 268-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change
3New insider — initial holdingsMar 113
3New insider — initial holdingsMar 113
8-KOfficer or director changeMar 118-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change
+ 9 other (2 13Gs · 2 earnings 8-Ks · 1 S-8 · 1 10-Q) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Bridger Aerospace Group Charts Fleet Expansion, Contract Growth at Investor Conferencemarketbeat.com·1d agoBridger Aerospace Secures DOI Task Order, Deploying Its Most Advanced Multi-Mission Wildfire Aircraftglobenewswire.com·2d agoBridger Aerospace to Present at the RedChip Vertical Economy Virtual Investor Conferenceglobenewswire.com·8d agoBridger Aerospace Secures 160 Day Task Orders for Four of its Super Scoopersbusinesswire.com·68d agoBridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. (BAER) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcriptseekingalpha.com·69d ago

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