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BABAER

Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. Common Stock

$BAER·$73M·Security & Protection Services·Industrials
$1.10-4.3%YTD-2.7%1Y-45.8%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-08-19: 3 posts2026-08-20: 17 posts2026-08-21: 27 posts2026-08-22: 4 posts2026-08-23: 6 posts2026-08-24: 4 posts67+7%
Price updated 13h ago·X counts updated 5d ago
BABAER
$BAERBridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. Common Stock
$1.10-4.35%67 posts+7%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Top X posts

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $BAER, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Comeback attemptWinding up for a moveAI verdict · as of 2026-08-26

Trading in a tight range and building pressure — a move looks likely soon, but the direction isn't clear yet.

Bridger Aerospace at 4% of the 52-week range with Chairman Kelter buying $354K open-market — coiled on a Canaccord $4 PT.

Bridger Aerospace Group is a small-cap aerial-firefighting operator (Super Scooper fleet) whose stock has been destroyed by Blackstone secondary-selling but is now setting up as a coiled turnaround with fresh operational and insider signals.

  • The insider tape has turned meaningfully bullish: Chairman Jeffrey Kelter bought 300,000 shares for $354K at ~$1.18 on Aug 20 — that's a real conviction check from the chairman at capitulation levels, and Canaccord reiterated Buy with a $4 PT (3x current) — the counter-signal that pushes back against the Blackstone selling narrative.
  • The operational cadence is showing seasonal strength: 'materially higher YoY flight data for July and August into peak fire season,' plus the King Air 350 #2 rolling out of the hangar with Blackhawk engines and WAMI sensor — that's a fleet-expansion signal exactly when wildfire-season utilization is peaking.
  • The tape is coiled at absolute capitulation: at 4% of the 52-week range, 28% below the 50-day and 40% below the 200-day on 2.12x elevated volume with beta 0.35 — the elevated volume with today's +3.8% pop suggests the Blackstone secondary-selling pressure may be exhausting; sample specifically notes the 3.7M-share overhang 'could be exhausted within days.'

The path if this works is the Nov 5 Q3 print delivering revenue in line with peak-fire-season utilization plus concrete Kelter-style continued insider buys, taking the tape past $2. What breaks it further is another Blackstone-scale disposition or a weak fire-season commentary — the setup is a genuine turnaround coil but requires the overhang to actually clear.

Agrees with X sentimentThe X bulls have the setup right — Kelter 300K-share purchase at ~$1.18 ($354K), higher YoY flight data for July-August into peak fire season, King Air 350 #2 with Blackhawk engines/WAMI sensor, Canaccord reiterated Buy at $4 PT, Blackstone 3.7M-share overhang 'exhausted within days' — and mechanics support the coiled turnaround.

What to watch: Nov 5 Q3 print (sell-side EPS $0.61) — revenue in line with peak-fire-season utilization plus additional Kelter-style insider buys extends the tape past $2; another Blackstone-scale disposition or a weak fire-season commentary breaks the tape back below $0.80. Blackstone's remaining share count is the leading indicator of the overhang exhausting.

On the calendar: 2026-11-05 — Q3 earnings

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Bullish sentiment16 posts analyzed · as of 2026-08-28

Bridger Aerospace chatter is small but bullish and insider-buy-driven. Chairman Jeffrey Kelter bought 300,000 shares at $1.18 (~$354k), King Air 350 #2 completed hangar rollout with Blackhawk engine upgrades, and July/August YoY flight data is up materially — 'great setup for Q3.' Canaccord reiterated Buy with $4 target. Blackstone selling ~1.125M shares is being framed as clearing overhang. A few chart cautions (potential drop signal), but the room is accumulating.

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $BAER

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  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Niche aerial wildfire-fighting services company operating large-format aircraft for US state governments.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Security & Protection Services sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $BAER.

Security & Protection Services · Industrials

No material change from last week — BAER's aerial wildfire-fighting serves escalating state government contracts as western US fire seasons intensify, while SUGP's Hong Kong AI-enhanced security..

What this means for $BAER

Direct beneficiary — Niche aerial wildfire-fighting services company operating large-format aircraft for US state governments; core revenue tied directly to the primary demand driver in security & protection services.

Top industry ETF

$XLIIndustrial Select Sector SPDR
+19.8%YTD
+15.5%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
-9.0How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
0.1%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
0.2%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
-64.3%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
0.9Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
-21.2%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
38.6%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
7.4Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Aug 6, 2026$-0.13$-0.03-333.3%
Q1 2026May 6, 2026$-0.69$-0.37-86.5%
Q4 2025Mar 5, 2026$-0.40$-0.30-33.3%
Q3 2025Nov 6, 2025$0.37$0.32+15.6%
Next earningsThu, Nov 5·consensus EPS $0.61

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$8.5M-45.6%-100%-297%$-0.69$-26.8M
Q4 FY25$8.5M-45.2%-65.1%-222%$-0.40$-78.4M
Q3 FY25$67.9M+5.2%68.9%57.5%$0.50$34.6M
Q2 FY25$30.8M+136.3%39.2%18.0%$-0.12$515K

Forward consensus

2-year forecast · up to 2 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$138.2M$137.0M – $139.4M-$0.52-$0.53 – -$0.512
FY27$156.4M$155.1M – $157.8M-$0.07-$0.08 – -$0.071

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.6×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.0%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.-33.7%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.-45.3%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatLow float · 39.0M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today2.1% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β0.355-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

BuyAug 20Jeffrey E KelterDirector150.0K sh$174KBuyAug 19Jeffrey E KelterDirector150.0K sh$180KSellAug 11Holdings I Blackstone10% owner2.8M sh$2.9MSellAug 11Holdings Ii Blackstone10% owner2.8M sh$2.9MSellAug 4Holdings Ii Blackstone10% owner1.9M sh$3.2MSellAug 4Holdings I Blackstone10% owner1.9M sh$3.2M
+ 23 other (21 awards · 2 inkinds) in window

See when $BAER insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

8-KPress release / Reg FDJul 278-K — Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
AI summary

Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. (Delaware; Belgrade, MT), an aerial firefighting services company with SPAC-heritage warrants at $11.50, filed an 8-K under Item 7.01 (Reg FD disclosure) on July 27, 2026, furnishing investor presentation materials. The body excerpt contains only cover-page boilerplate; the presentation content is in the attached exhibit. This is routine investor communication with no material new event.

8-KShareholder voteJun 58-K — Item 5.07: Shareholder vote
AI summary

Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. (BAER) disclosed the results of its annual meeting of shareholders in an 8-K filing under Item 5.07. Shareholders voted on ratification of the independent auditor. All management-sponsored proposals were approved by majority shareholder vote. Annual meeting results are a routine disclosure that confirms shareholder ratification of the board's composition and compensation practices.

3New insider — initial holdingsApr 173
AI summary

Justin D. Mogford filed an initial Form 3 for Bridger Aerospace Group (BAER) on April 14, 2026, reporting initial beneficial ownership as a new director or officer at the company's Belgrade, Montana headquarters. Bridger Aerospace operates fixed-wing aircraft for aerial firefighting and surveillance services.

8-KOfficer or director changeMar 268-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change
3New insider — initial holdingsMar 113
3New insider — initial holdingsMar 113
8-KOfficer or director changeMar 118-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change
+ 11 other (3 earnings 8-Ks · 2 10-Qs · 2 13Gs · 1 S-8) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Analyzing Bridger Aerospace Group (NASDAQ:BAER) & Civeo (NYSE:CVEO)defenseworld.net·8d agoBridger Aerospace Expands Super Scooper Fleet as Wildfire Contracts Extendmarketbeat.com·17d agoBridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. (BAER) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcriptseekingalpha.com·22d agoBridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. (BAER) Reports Q2 Loss, Misses Revenue Estimateszacks.com·23d agoBridger Aerospace Group Q2 Earnings Call Highlightsmarketbeat.com·23d ago

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