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GEGEO

The GEO Group, Inc.

$GEO·$4.2B·Security & Protection Services·Industrials
$31.22-2.3%YTD+95.5%1Y+49.2%
Price updated 2d ago·X counts updated 2h ago
GEGEO
$GEOThe GEO Group, Inc.
$31.22-2.32%38 posts1.2×
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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On X

The complete picture of $GEO on X — how loud the conversation is right now, how it has trended over the last two weeks, and which way the crowd is leaning.

38X posts · last 7 days
Sep 10Sep 27
Chatter Meter
1.2×
QuietNormal · 1×Loud

How loud $GEO's conversation on X is versus its own normal — 1× is typical, higher means busier. Right now it's about its usual level, louder than 82% of tracked names.

Bullish sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data6 posts analyzed · as of 2026-09-08

Big squeeze developing in $CXW, $GEO and $PLTR right before midterms. Community frames it as saucy and worth watching.

Read what X is saying about $GEO

  • Bullish vs bearish call — with the AI summary of the day's posts
  • Divergence flag when the top-engagement posts argue the other side
  • How loud the conversation is versus this ticker's own normal
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AI verdictAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

TickerTalks' own read on what's driving $GEO — fundamentals, momentum, or an event — and whether it agrees with the X crowd.

Proven numbersAcceleratingAI verdict · as of 2026-09-27

The move is getting stronger, with heavier trading behind it.

Private-corrections operator up 95% YTD as ICE detention capacity demand accelerates — near 52-week highs.

GEO Group is the private-corrections and immigration-detention operator riding federal policy tailwinds: mkt cap $4.2B, shares $31.22, YTD +95%, T12m +49%, sitting 91% up the 52-week range.

  • Q2 2026 revenue $732M was +15.1% year-over-year with 14% operating margin; Q1 rev $705M +16.6%; the last four quarters have printed +13-17% year-over-year growth cleanly.
  • Fundamentals: PE 14, ROE 19%, ROIC 6.8%, debt/equity 0.06 (essentially unlevered), FCF yield 0.7%, EV/EBITDA 6.3 — priced modest despite the run.
  • Recent surprises are decisive: +29%, +53%, +0%, +14% — the beats have accelerated as ICE contract volumes stepped up.
  • Insider activity is modest sell — Matthew Albence (officer) sold $371K at $31.46 September 11, small size relative to the tape.
  • Zacks flagged GEO as 'great for trend investors' and in September 2 momentum picks.

X-social is bullish: 'Big squeeze developing in $CXW, $GEO and $PLTR right before midterms' — the community is watching the political-cycle setup as tailwind.

Agrees with X sentimentX bulls and the tape agree — the midterm-cycle setup is now consensus.

What to watch: November 5 Q3 print — contract-volume trajectory, any new ICE detention capacity announcements.

On the calendar: 2026-11-05 Q3 2026 earnings (EPS estimate $0.35)

Read the AI verdict on $GEO

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • Whether TickerTalks' read agrees with or diverges from the X crowd
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Private operator of correctional facilities, immigration detention centers, and community reentry programs in the US, Australia, and South Africa.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Security & Protection Services sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $GEO.

Security & Protection Services · Industrials

No material change from last week — SUGP jumps on dual catalysts: exclusive Hong Kong/Macau portable X-ray distribution rights and proposed KM Safety acquisition.

What this means for $GEO

Neutral — Private operator of correctional facilities, immigration detention centers, and community reentry programs in the US, Australia, and South Africa.

Top industry ETF

$XLIIndustrial Select Sector SPDR
+9.3%YTD
+12.7%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
14.1How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
6.8%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
11.2%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
0.7%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
1.4Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
19.3%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
42.4%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.1Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Aug 6, 2026$0.37$0.29+28.7%
Q1 2026May 6, 2026$0.29$0.19+52.6%
Q4 2025Feb 12, 2026$0.25$0.250.0%
Q3 2025Nov 6, 2025$0.25$0.22+13.6%
Next earningsThu, Nov 5·consensus EPS $0.35

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q2 FY26$732.1M+15.1%100%13.9%$0.36$194.1M
Q1 FY26$705.2M+16.6%16.5%12.7%$0.29$134.8M
Q4 FY25$707.7M+16.5%25.1%11.8%$0.23$-153.6M
Q3 FY25$682.3M+13.1%25.4%6.0%$1.26$-14.1M

Forward consensus

2-year forecast · up to 3 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$3.0B$2.9B – $3.0B$1.27$1.26 – $1.293
FY27$3.3B$3.2B – $3.4B$1.79$1.72 – $1.852

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.5×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.91%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.+0.0%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.+37.9%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatMid float · 115.4M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today1.1% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β0.785-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellSep 11Matthew AlbenceSenior VP, Client Relations11.8K sh$371KSellAug 21Ronald A. BrackSee Remarks7.0K sh$224KSellAug 20Matthew AlbenceSenior VP, Client Relations10.0K sh$317KSellAug 13Lindsay L. KorenDirector3.5K sh$110K
+ 2 other (1 gift · 1 award) in window

See when $GEO insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
Free, forever. No credit card.

SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

8-KShareholder voteMay 48-K — Item 5.07: Shareholder vote
+ 10 other (5 13Gs · 2 10-Qs · 2 earnings 8-Ks · 1 11-K) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Financial Review: Safe and Green Development (NASDAQ:RENX) versus Geo Group (NYSE:GEO)defenseworld.net·7d agoEutelsat and Grupo W Com Expand Long-Term Partnership to Advance Next-Gen Television Services in Mexicogurufocus.com·17d agoGeo Group (GEO) Is a Great Choice for 'Trend' Investors, Here's Whyzacks.com·19d agoBest Momentum Stocks to Buy for September 2ndzacks.com·26d agoRedwire Announces Strategic Investment in Next-Generation Phased Array Antenna Technology to Advance Global Warfighter Connectivitygurufocus.com·34d ago

More in Security & Protection Services

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Voices on X · last 7 days

No standout posts about $GEO on X in the last 7 days.

TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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