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ASASPN

Aspen Aerogels, Inc.

$ASPN·$518M·Chemicals - Specialty·Basic Materials
$5.85-3.6%1Y-17.1%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-08-08: 1 posts2026-08-09: 0 posts2026-08-10: 3 posts2026-08-11: 5 posts2026-08-12: 5 posts2026-08-13: 4 posts2026-08-14: 6 posts24+3%
Price updated 16h ago·X counts updated 14h ago
ASASPN
$ASPNAspen Aerogels, Inc.
$5.85-3.62%24 posts+3%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $ASPN, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Comeback attemptAcceleratingAI verdict · as of 2026-08-14

The move is getting stronger, with heavier trading behind it.

Thermal-barrier small-cap +172% YTD on Q2 sequential rebound — real EV-trough recovery, but 6.5% gross margin has to expand fast.

Aspen Aerogels is the specialty aerogel-insulation company whose thermal-barrier products go into EV battery packs and industrial cryogenic applications. Up 172% YTD as the Q2 print showed sharp sequential recovery from the EV demand trough. Small-cap ($518M) but with material EV-cycle leverage.

  • The Q2 sequential rebound is genuine: revenue of $49.8M grew 32% quarter-over-quarter (though still down 36% year-over-year) — the specific pattern of a thermal-barrier supplier coming out of the EV-inventory-destocking cycle and back into an OEM-ramp phase.
  • The "one of the best performing stocks this year" framing has math: at +172% YTD, Aspen is genuinely among the top-performing small-caps this year — a run that reflects both the sector rotation into EV-adjacent thermal solutions and Aspen's specific product wins.
  • The gross margin is still thin: 6.5% gross margin in Q2 reflects the operational challenge of running through inventory-destocking pricing — the specific level that needs to expand meaningfully for the +172% run to keep going.
  • The forward analyst view is cautious: consensus FY26 EPS of -$0.77 tells you the sell-side hasn't fully embraced the "trough recovery" thesis yet — meaning any Q3 beat plus reaffirmed margin recovery language would trigger the specific model updates that push estimates higher.

Coming into Nov 5 earnings, the tape needs continued sequential revenue expansion and specific gross-margin recovery commentary — the two levers that decide whether the +172% run has a second leg or is done. A clean beat plus visible EV-OEM ramp commentary extends the trend; a gross-margin miss or destocking-relapse disclosure is what compresses the setup.

Agrees with X sentimentAgree with the bullish 'told you so' framing — the +32% QoQ revenue rebound and +172% YTD move are real, and the EV-trough recovery framing is defensible. Where I'd add: 6.5% gross margin is the specific number that needs to expand meaningfully to sustain the +172% run, and the sell-side hasn't fully embraced the trough-recovery thesis yet.

What to watch: Nov 5 Q3 earnings — continued sequential revenue expansion and specific gross-margin recovery commentary. Visible EV-OEM ramp commentary extends the trend; a gross-margin miss or destocking-relapse compresses the setup.

On the calendar: 2026-11-05 — Q3 earnings

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Bullish sentiment6 posts analyzed · as of 2026-08-13

Aspen Aerogels chatter is small but pointedly bullish. Q2 revenue rebounded sharply to $49.8M (+32% QoQ) with a massive thermal-barrier ramp, and the stock is +172% YTD — called out as 'one of the best performing stocks in the market this year.' The tone is 'told you so' toward doubters, framing the print as validation of the EV-trough recovery. The lone caution is one poster's July 2 bearish signal that took the stock -15% in 30 days; the recovery has since overwhelmed that.

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $ASPN

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Manufacturer of aerogel insulation products serving energy infrastructure and EV battery thermal management markets globally.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Chemicals - Specialty sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $ASPN.

Chemicals - Specialty · Basic Materials

No material change from last week — lithium price recovery as EV battery demand growth slowly rebalances Atacama supply gluts, and US government rare earth/critical mineral investment ($725M..

Industry benchmark

14-name peer basket
+32.3%YTD
+68.0%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
-4.5How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
62.3%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
101%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
12.3%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
2.8Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
-53.3%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
2.7%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.4Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Aug 6, 2026$-0.28$-0.23-23.1%
Q1 2026May 7, 2026$-0.28$-0.27-3.7%
Q4 2025Feb 25, 2026$-0.34$-0.27-25.9%
Q3 2025Nov 6, 2025$-0.06$-0.21+72.1%
Next earningsThu, Nov 5·consensus EPS $-0.09

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q2 FY26$49.8M-36.1%6.5%-57.7%$-0.28$17.9M
Q1 FY26$37.9M-51.9%11.3%-53.9%$-0.29$32.8M
Q4 FY25$41.3M-66.4%-55.5%620%$-0.88$13.7M
Q3 FY25$73.0M-37.8%28.5%-4.6%$-0.08$5.9M

Forward consensus

4-year forecast · up to 4 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$196.2M$177.1M – $210.3M-$0.77-$0.83 – -$0.704
FY27$283.9M$251.7M – $339.9M-$0.12-$0.20 – -$0.064
FY28$421.0M$385.6M – $468.1M$0.45$0.40 – $0.521
FY29$549.4M$503.3M – $610.8M$1.22$1.09 – $1.401

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.7×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.50%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.+6.0%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.+36.7%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatMid float · 76.7M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today1.3% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β2.975-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

No open-market buys or sells in the last 180 days.

+ 20 other (10 awards · 9 inkinds · 1 exempt) in window

See when $ASPN insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

8-KPress release / Reg FDAug 68-K — Item 2.02: Earnings release · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
AI summary

ASPN filed an 8-K (Item 2.02) reporting its financial results for the second quarter of 2026, which ended June 30, 2026, and also discussed business d, filed 2026-08-06. The actual financial figures are in the attached press release (Exhibit 99.1), not reproduced in the body excerpt. This is a material disclosure; investors should review the press release for beat/miss details and guidance.

8-KOfficer or director changeMay 188-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change · Item 5.07: Shareholder vote · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
8-KPress release / Reg FDMay 78-K — Item 2.02: Earnings release · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
8-KPress release / Reg FDApr 218-K — Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD · Item 8.01: Other event
8-KPress release / Reg FDFeb 258-K — Item 2.02: Earnings release · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
+ 9 other (2 10-Qs · 2 proxys · 2 10-Ks · 1 ARS) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Aspen Aerogels, Inc. $ASPN Shares Sold by Dimensional Fund Advisors LPdefenseworld.net·2d agoAspen Aerogels: Green Shoots Fail To Truly Impress Investorsseekingalpha.com·5d agoAspen Aerogels Reminds Us Materials Science Can Be Cool, Especially If EVs Are Hotseekingalpha.com·5d agoAspen Aerogels Q2 Earnings Call Highlightsmarketbeat.com·8d agoAspen Aerogels, Inc. (ASPN) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcriptseekingalpha.com·9d ago

In themes

Explore the broader themes this ticker is being talked about under.

EVs & Autonomous Vehicles

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Voices on X · last 7 days

No standout posts about $ASPN on X in the last 7 days.

TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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