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ADADTN

ADTRAN Holdings Inc.

$ADTN·$1.1B·Communication Equipment·Technology
$12.60+1.4%YTD+42.9%1Y+37.9%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-07-08: 9 posts2026-07-09: 11 posts2026-07-10: 7 posts2026-07-11: 5 posts2026-07-12: 10 posts2026-07-13: 26 posts2026-07-14: 15 posts83+20%
Price updated 4h ago·X counts updated 4h ago
ADADTN
$ADTNADTRAN Holdings Inc.
$12.60+1.37%83 posts+20%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Top X posts

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $ADTN, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Comeback attemptAcceleratingAI verdict · as of 2026-07-13

The move is getting stronger, with heavier trading behind it.

ADTRAN up 43% in 12 months as Huawei EMEA rip-and-replace opportunity and LiteWave800 AI-connectivity products drive fiber-optical thesis.

ADTRAN is a fiber/optical networking-equipment vendor pivoting to AI-datacenter connectivity — the +43% 12M move reflects the EMEA Huawei rip-and-replace opportunity plus the LiteWave800 product cycle into Aug 4 Q2 earnings.

  • The EMEA Huawei displacement is the biggest structural catalyst — CEO-sized at ~$800M annually, a legitimate market-share opportunity as European operators are pushed off Chinese equipment; captured in the retail thesis as 'the next AAOI-style under-the-radar fiber/optical name'.
  • The Q1 print continued the beat streak — revenue $286M up 15% YoY with 39% gross margin and $0.14 EPS vs $0.09 estimate (+56% surprise), extending recent beats: +100% Q4, -17% Q3, -400% Q2 — the trajectory is turning after the Q2 miss.
  • The LiteWave800 catalyst is real — a new intra-data-center AI-connectivity product ships into a supply-constrained market; combined with the $42B US BEAD broadband funding starting to flow through in 2027 gives two multi-year revenue tailwinds.
  • The analyst curve confirms the ramp — FY26 revenue $1.19B with $0.53 EPS crossing back to profit, FY27 $1.30B/$0.77, FY28 $1.47B/$1.01 — 24-month EPS doubling from breakeven-to-material profit is the multiple driver at 1.2x sales.

Aug 4 is the pivot — a beat on $0.12 EPS estimate plus explicit Huawei-displacement wins or LiteWave800 backlog disclosure extends the +43% 12M move; a soft print combined with any BEAD funding delay commentary digests the reacceleration back toward the 50-day at $15.

Agrees with X sentimentAgree with the constructive X read — the $800M EMEA Huawei displacement TAM, the LiteWave800 AI-connectivity product, and the $42B BEAD broadband funding starting to flow in 2027 are real, sized fundamental catalysts; the 'next AAOI-style' framing is momentum-flavor commentary but the underlying fiber-cycle thesis is legitimate. Peer list vs Volex/Clearfield adds context.

What to watch: Aug 4 Q2 print — a beat on $0.12 estimate plus explicit Huawei-displacement wins or LiteWave800 backlog disclosure extends the +43% move; a soft print combined with BEAD funding delay commentary digests toward the 50-day at $15.

On the calendar: 2026-08-04 — Q2 earnings

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Bullish sentiment5 posts analyzed · as of 2026-06-23

ADTRAN chatter is thin but uniformly bullish, with traders explicitly pitching it as the next AAOI-style under-the-radar fiber/optical name. The thesis stack: a $1B market cap with 15.5% year-over-year revenue growth, an EMEA Huawei rip-and-replace opportunity the CEO sized at roughly $800M annually, the new LiteWave800 product aimed at intra-data-center AI connectivity, and $42B of US BEAD broadband funding expected to start flowing through to ADTRAN's ISP customers in 2027. A separate post lists ADTN as a preferred fiber-and-interconnects holding alongside Volex and Clearfield.

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $ADTN

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Fiber networking equipment for telecom carriers, with tailwinds from US and European broadband infrastructure buildout.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Communication Equipment sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $ADTN.

Communication Equipment · Technology

No material change from last week — Lumentum pre-breakout setup unchanged as hyperscaler 400G/800G AI rack buildout continues structurally consuming optical transceiver and DWDM capacity into 2H26.

What this means for $ADTN

Partial — Fiber networking equipment for telecom carriers, with tailwinds from US and European broadband infrastructure buildout; the hyperscaler 400G/800G AI rack networking buildout is a secondary rather than primary near-term earnings catalyst.

Top industry ETF

$IYZiShares U.S. Telecommunications ETF
+21.8%YTD
+40.8%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
-37.2How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
-0.6%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
-0.5%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
4.3%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
1.2Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
-24.0%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
38.6%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
1.6Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q1 2026May 5, 2026$0.14$0.09+55.6%
Q4 2025Feb 25, 2026$0.16$0.08+100.0%
Q3 2025Nov 3, 2025$0.05$0.06-16.7%
Q2 2025Aug 4, 2025$-0.03$0.01-400.0%
Next earningsTue, Aug 4·consensus EPS $0.12

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$286.1M+15.5%39.5%2.2%$-0.01$5.2M
Q4 FY25$291.6M+20.1%39.0%1.5%$-0.04$30.6M
Q3 FY25$279.4M+22.7%38.3%-1.0%$-0.13$4.2M
Q2 FY25$265.1M+17.3%37.3%-5.0%$-0.26$18.3M

Forward consensus

3-year forecast · up to 6 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$1.2B$1.2B – $1.2B$0.53$0.49 – $0.586
FY27$1.3B$1.3B – $1.3B$0.77$0.75 – $0.795
FY28$1.5B$1.4B – $1.5B$1.01$1.00 – $1.022

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.9×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.41%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.-18.3%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.+8.5%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatMid float · 79.0M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today2.7% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β1.455-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellMay 20Wilson James Denson JrChief Revenue Officer9.3K sh$137KSellMay 8Christoph GlingenerCTO22.3K sh$334KSellMay 7Christoph GlingenerCTO126.1K sh$1.9MSellMar 4Jacqueline Hourigan RiceDirector14.4K sh$148K
+ 19 other (10 inkinds · 6 awards · 2 exempts · 1 gift) in window

See when $ADTN insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

3New insider — initial holdingsJul 13
AI summary

Form 3 filed by Anne DelSanto reporting her initial beneficial ownership of ADTRAN Holdings, Inc. securities upon her appointment as Director effective July 1, 2026. DelSanto beneficially owns 0 shares of common stock and holds no derivative securities at the time of filing. Routine board governance appointment with no investment implications.

8-KOfficer or director changeJun 268-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change · Item 8.01: Other event
AI summary

ADTRAN Holdings (ADTN) announced the unanimous Board election of Anne DelSanto as a new independent director, expanding the board from six to seven members effective July 1, 2026. Ms. DelSanto was appointed to the Compensation Committee and qualified as an independent director under Nasdaq listing standards; no related-party transactions or special arrangements were disclosed. She will receive standard non-employee director compensation as described in ADTRAN's 2026 proxy statement. This is a routine board governance action — administrative and non-dilutive, with the Compensation Committee appointment offering modest signal on board priorities around executive pay.

8-KCharter amendmentMay 188-K — Item 5.03: Charter amendment · Item 5.07: Shareholder vote
AI summary

ADTRAN Holdings, Inc. held its Annual Meeting of Stockholders on May 13, 2026 at which stockholders approved a Charter Amendment to the Amended and Restated Certificate of Incorporation — the specific nature of the charter change is described in Proposal 2 of the proxy statement. All annual meeting votes are reported. This is a governance update at the networking and telecommunications equipment company; charter amendments at annual meetings typically address authorized share changes or governance modernization.

8-KPress release / Reg FDMay 58-K — Item 2.02: Earnings release · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
AI summary

ADTRAN Holdings (ADTN) reported Q1 2026 financial results and disclosed an investor conference call webcast scheduled for May 5, 2026 at 7:30 am CT. Items 2.02 and 7.01 cover the earnings release and Regulation FD webcast disclosure, respectively. ADTRAN provides networking and fiber broadband infrastructure equipment and software.

8-KOfficer or director changeApr 78-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change
AI summary

ADTRAN Holdings (ADTN) executed the Second Amendment to CEO Thomas Stanton's employment agreement on April 6, 2026. Employment agreement amendments for sitting CEOs typically address compensation, severance, or term extension. ADTRAN provides networking infrastructure and fiber broadband equipment to telecommunications service providers globally.

8-KPress release / Reg FDFeb 268-K — Item 2.02: Earnings release · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
8-KPress release / Reg FDJan 228-K — Item 2.02: Earnings release · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
+ 12 other (3 proxys · 3 13Gs · 1 11-K · 1 SD) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

ADTN Rides on Network Solutions Momentum: Will Growth Continue?zacks.com·19d agoAdtran Holdings, Inc. Appoints Anne DelSanto to Board of Directorsbusinesswire.com·19d agoThe AI Stock Flying Under Every Analyst's Radar -- Until Nowfool.com·28d agoMicrochip Launches TimePictra 12 Platform: Catalyst for More Growth?zacks.com·34d agoWhy Is ADTRAN Holdings (ADTN) Up 19.4% Since Last Earnings Report?zacks.com·42d ago

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Voices on X · top 1 · last 7 days

TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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