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ABABVX

Abivax S.A.

$ABVX·$10B·Biotechnology·Healthcare
$137.77+0.6%YTD+0.7%1Y+1447.3%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-07-10: 57 posts2026-07-11: 22 posts2026-07-12: 25 posts2026-07-13: 51 posts2026-07-14: 44 posts2026-07-15: 60 posts2026-07-16: 85 posts349+17%
Price updated 10h ago·X counts updated 10h ago
ABABVX
$ABVXAbivax S.A.
$137.77+0.61%349 posts+17%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Top X posts

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $ABVX, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Driven by hypeAcceleratingAI verdict · as of 2026-07-16

The move is getting stronger, with heavier trading behind it.

Abivax up 1,447% in a year on obefazimod UC data — $920M cash raise sets up solo US launch.

Abivax is a French biotech developing obefazimod for ulcerative colitis (UC) — the miRNA-modulating oral drug that just delivered strong Phase 3 data setting up an NDA submission. The stock is up 1,447% over the past year, one of the strongest biotech runs of the cycle.

  • Revenue is zero with -$0.96 EPS estimate — this is a clinical-stage biotech; the entire equity value is on obefazimod's UC commercial launch trajectory.
  • The $920M cash raise (July 6 close) via a $800M offering at $125/ADS 4-5x oversubscribed — real institutional demand and a war chest that changes management's M&A leverage posture completely.
  • Piper Sandler PT bump to $175 (from $165) with 2035 US UC revenue estimate of $4.2B (from $3.7B) — real sell-side conviction, and the CEO's 'best defense is offense' CNBC framing supports the negotiating-stance interpretation.
  • Sofinnova (French VC) filed 13D/A Amendment 6 on July 6 — continued major-shareholder engagement; the $920M raise means Abivax could self-fund a US launch, changing the strategic calculus.
  • 52-week position 92nd percentile with position vs 50-day MA +18% — the tape is fully confirmed; the September 14 earnings is procedural, but the operational trajectory matters more.

September 14 Q2 earnings is procedural; the real catalyst is the ongoing NDA path plus any M&A signaling. NDA submission on time plus a definitive strategic-buyer conversation is where the +1,447% T12M gain continues; a Phase 3 durability concern or a walked-back solo-launch commitment is where the multiple compresses. Real biotech phenomenon with real cash to execute — the setup rewards continued regulatory progress.

Agrees with X sentimentThe mixed X read on the CEO's 'best defense is offense' framing captures the negotiating-stance interpretation vs the 'management shooting off the hip' bear framing fairly. Piper's PT bump and the 4-5x oversubscribed offering are real data points; the further-dilution-risk concern is legitimate but muted by the $920M runway.

What to watch: NDA submission timing and any M&A signaling — need NDA on time plus a definitive strategic-buyer conversation. A Phase 3 durability concern or walked-back solo-launch commitment is where the multiple compresses.

On the calendar: 2026-09-14 — Q2 earnings

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Mixed sentiment⚠57 posts analyzed · as of 2026-07-15 · top-engagement diverged

Abivax posts split around the recent $920M cash raise. Bulls say the 4-5x oversubscribed secondary and Piper Sandler's PT bump to $175 (from $165) with a 2035 US UC revenue estimate of $4.2B (up from $3.7B) validate a solo US launch of obefazimod without diluting control. CEO Marc de Garidel's 'best defense is offense' CNBC-Europe interview reads as a negotiating stance to force a higher takeout, not a rejection of M&A. Bears counter that management is 'shooting off the hip,' calling it a signal that acquisition is off the table, warning of further dilution risk to fund a commercialization team with no launch experience. The XBI drawdown and AI-trade rotation compound the drag.

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $ABVX

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Develops anti-inflammatory drugs for chronic immune diseases, with obefazimod in late-stage trials for ulcerative colitis.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Biotechnology sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $ABVX.

Biotechnology · Healthcare

No material change from last week — ADA conference oral formulation competition is bifurcating biotech multiples between GLP-1 platform holders and precision oncology innovators.

What this means for $ABVX

Neutral — Develops anti-inflammatory drugs for chronic immune diseases, with obefazimod in late-stage trials for ulcerative colitis; the GLP-1 pipeline bifurcation and ADA oral formulation competition does not materially affect this business's near-term earnings.

Top industry ETF

$IBBiShares Biotechnology ETF
+11.7%YTD
+44.5%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
-18.2How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
-48.0%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
0.0%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
-2.3%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
0.0Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
-165%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
0.0%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.1Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q1 2026May 22, 2026$-0.70$-0.94+24.8%
Q4 2025Mar 23, 2026$-1.20$-1.07-12.6%
Q2 2025Sep 8, 2025$-0.86$-0.90+4.4%
Q4 2024Mar 24, 2025$-1.55$-0.68-128.0%
Next earningsMon, Sep 14·consensus EPS $-0.96

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q4 FY25$0-100.0%——$-2.10$-71.3M
Q2 FY25$0-100.0%——$-1.59$-66.7M
Q4 FY24$0-100.0%——$-1.50$-69.3M
Q2 FY24$0-100.0%——$-0.65$-42.7M

Forward consensus

5-year forecast · up to 10 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$3.8M$1.6M – $8.3M-$3.35-$4.35 – -$2.8010
FY27$105.1M$102.7M – $107.5M-$3.03-$3.47 – -$2.4810
FY28$489.0M$469.3M – $517.4M$0.22-$0.05 – $0.5110
FY29$1.2B$1.2B – $1.3B$6.51$6.17 – $7.005
FY30$1.6B$1.6B – $1.7B$8.37$7.93 – $9.005

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.5×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.92%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.+17.9%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.+20.2%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatMid float · 60.6M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today2.6% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β-0.215-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.FilingActive offeringA shelf registration (S-3 / S-3ASR / S-1) or prospectus supplement (424B*) was filed in the last 90 days — the company is registered to (or actively) issuing new shares. Dilution risk.

SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

SC 13D/AActivist amendmentJul 6SC 13D/A
AI summary

Sofinnova Crossover I SLP (a French investment fund) and related entities — including management company Sofinnova Partners SAS — filed Amendment No. 6 to their Schedule 13D for Abivax S.A. (ABVX) as of July 2, 2026, reporting aggregate voting rights of 3,535,843 representing 4.3% of the outstanding class, based on 82,130,598 voting rights outstanding as of May 31, 2026. The fund directly owns 2,474,299 ordinary shares/ADRs (with sole dispositive power), with voting rights exceeding shares due to Abivax's dual-vote structure. Sofinnova Partners SAS holds sole voting and dispositive control as management company. This is a routine update to a pre-existing passive institutional holder position — the French VC firm is not signaling activist intent.

424B5Prospectus supplement (offering)Jul 2424B5
AI summary

Abivax S.A. (ABVX), a French biotech traded on Euronext Paris and Nasdaq, is offering 6,400,000 ADSs (each representing one ordinary share) at $125.00 per ADS, raising approximately $800 million gross ($762 million net of $38 million in underwriting discounts). Joint bookrunners include Leerink Partners, Morgan Stanley, Piper Sandler, and Guggenheim Securities; delivery was expected on or about July 6, 2026. Underwriters hold a 30-day option for up to 960,000 additional ADSs. This is a significant dilutive capital raise likely funding clinical advancement or commercial expansion of Abivax's inflammation pipeline.

424B5Prospectus supplement (offering)Jun 30424B5
AI summary

Abivax (French biotech, Euronext Paris + Nasdaq) filed a preliminary 424B5 for a $600M ADS offering; joint bookrunners include Leerink Partners, Morgan Stanley, Piper Sandler, and Guggenheim Securities; registered direct offering structure with delivery expected July 2026. Significant dilutive capital raise for a commercial-stage biotech with transatlantic listing; proceeds likely support U.S. commercialization of obefazimod, its lead inflammation drug.

SC 13D/AActivist amendmentMay 11SC 13D/A
AI summary

Sofinnova Crossover I SLP filed an amended Schedule 13D on ABVX disclosing beneficial ownership (5,499,478.00 shares) as of 2026-05-11. The filer's stated intent is passive investment with no plan to influence control of the company.

+ 13 other (9 6-Ks · 1 POSASR · 1 S-8 · 1 20-F) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Abivax: Obefazimod Goes The Distance And So Does My Buy Ratingseekingalpha.com·21h agoShould You Buy Abivax SA Sponsored ADR (ABVX) After Golden Cross?zacks.com·7d agoAbivax $920 million cash haul lets it prepare for solo U.S. launch instead of relying on a buyer, CEO tells CNBCcnbc.com·7d ago3 Soaring Stocks That May Have More Upside Aheadfool.com·10d agoAbivax: Wall Street Catches Up to the Datamarketbeat.com·10d ago

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TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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