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ABABVX

Abivax S.A.

$ABVX·$6.5B·Biotechnology·Healthcare
$88.13-4.6%YTD-35.6%1Y-5.1%
Price updated 6h ago·X counts updated 5d ago
ABABVX
$ABVXAbivax S.A.
$88.13-4.60%382 posts0.9×
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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On X

Top X posts

The complete picture of $ABVX on X — how loud the conversation is right now, how it has trended over the last two weeks, and which way the crowd is leaning.

382X posts · last 7 days
Sep 29Oct 11
Chatter Meter
0.9×
QuietNormal · 1×Loud

How loud $ABVX's conversation on X is versus its own normal — 1× is typical, higher means busier. Right now it's about its usual level.

Bullish sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data15 posts analyzed · as of 2026-10-02

The Abivax crowd is bullish — the UEG maintenance data is being praised across sub-groups (34-42% CR in AT-IR, 24-39% endoscopic remission, 27-33% CR in 4+ AT-failure patients), and bulls frame $91 as 27% below the July $125 raise with top-notch Phase 3 UC efficacy. The pointed restraint: holders note combination therapy is where IBD is heading, and ABVX must move fast or risk being overtaken.

Read what X is saying about $ABVX

  • Bullish vs bearish call — with the AI summary of the day's posts
  • Divergence flag when the top-engagement posts argue the other side
  • How loud the conversation is versus this ticker's own normal
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AI verdictAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

TickerTalks' own read on what's driving $ABVX — fundamentals, momentum, or an event — and whether it agrees with the X crowd.

Hinges on a big eventWinding up for a moveAI verdict · as of 2026-10-02

Trading in a tight range and building pressure — a move looks likely soon, but the direction isn't clear yet.

Abivax has sub-group UC data competitors would envy — and the stock is down 30% YTD into the Phase 3 primary.

Abivax is a Paris-listed biotech developing obefazimod, an oral drug for ulcerative colitis and Crohn's disease. The company just presented sub-group data at UEG that bulls are calling best-in-class — and the stock has lagged anyway.

  • The clinical data is real: UEG sub-group analysis showed 34-42% clinical remission in anti-TNF-inadequate-response patients and up to 33% in patients who failed four-plus prior therapies — a hard-to-treat population where competitors post single-digit response rates.
  • The stock is pre-revenue, so valuation is pure pipeline-NPV math — $9B market cap on no revenue means the market is already pricing approval, which is why YTD is -30% despite the data: expectations were higher.
  • 52-week position is 32% with vol at the 30-day average — the market is consolidating around trial expectations, with Crohn's enrollment pace and a lingering "cancer signal" concern as the only real pushbacks.

Dec 21 earnings release plus the Phase 3 UC primary readout are the dated catalysts — a confirmatory primary endpoint plus clean safety extends the move materially. A disappointing primary or a safety signal in the full population and this one re-rates hard.

Agrees with X sentimentThe thread has the clinically substantive drivers — UEG sub-group CR rates, the AT-IR response edge, Crohn's enrollment pace — and the specific pushbacks (cancer signal, enrollment) are the actual bear case to track, not noise.

What to watch: Dec 21 and the Phase 3 UC primary readout — specifically the full-population clinical remission rate and the safety profile in longer-exposure data. A primary miss or a safety signal is the hard invalidator.

On the calendar: 2026-12-21 — FY earnings / Phase 3 update

Read the AI verdict on $ABVX

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • Whether TickerTalks' read agrees with or diverges from the X crowd
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Develops anti-inflammatory drugs for chronic immune diseases, with obefazimod in late-stage trials for ulcerative colitis.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Biotechnology sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $ABVX.

Biotechnology · Healthcare

No material change from last week — mRNA oncology platform remains the structural driver.

What this means for $ABVX

Neutral — Develops anti-inflammatory drugs for chronic immune diseases, with obefazimod in late-stage trials for ulcerative colitis.

Top industry ETF

$IBBiShares Biotechnology ETF
+17.9%YTD
+31.7%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
-18.2How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
-48.0%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
0.0%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
-2.3%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
0.0Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
-165%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
0.0%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.1Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Sep 21, 2026$-1.71$-0.98-74.7%
Q1 2026May 22, 2026$-0.71$-1.07+33.6%
Q4 2025Mar 23, 2026$-1.19$-1.70+30.0%
Q3 2025Dec 15, 2025$-2.47$-0.79-214.3%
Next earningsMon, Dec 21·consensus EPS $-1.27

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q4 FY25$0-100.0%——$-2.10$-71.3M
Q2 FY25$0-100.0%——$-1.59$-66.7M
Q4 FY24$0-100.0%——$-1.50$-69.3M
Q2 FY24$0-100.0%——$-0.65$-42.7M

Forward consensus

5-year forecast · up to 12 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$3.9M$2.8M – $6.0M-$3.72-$5.05 – -$2.3810
FY27$46.7M$6.6M – $86.7M-$3.68-$6.06 – -$2.1710
FY28$336.8M$175.1M – $653.9M-$1.43-$5.12 – $0.4412
FY29$853.0M$398.5M – $1.6B$2.92$0.90 – $6.4310
FY30$1.4B$668.3M – $2.8B$7.74$2.38 – $17.076

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.1.0×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.23%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.-17.6%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.-23.9%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatMid float · 67.1M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today1.9% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β-0.255-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

SC 13D/AActivist amendmentJul 6SC 13D/A
AI summary

Sofinnova Crossover I SLP (a French investment fund) and related entities — including management company Sofinnova Partners SAS — filed Amendment No. 6 to their Schedule 13D for Abivax S.A. (ABVX) as of July 2, 2026, reporting aggregate voting rights of 3,535,843 representing 4.3% of the outstanding class, based on 82,130,598 voting rights outstanding as of May 31, 2026. The fund directly owns 2,474,299 ordinary shares/ADRs (with sole dispositive power), with voting rights exceeding shares due to Abivax's dual-vote structure. Sofinnova Partners SAS holds sole voting and dispositive control as management company. This is a routine update to a pre-existing passive institutional holder position — the French VC firm is not signaling activist intent.

424B5Prospectus supplement (offering)Jul 2424B5
AI summary

Abivax S.A. (ABVX), a French biotech traded on Euronext Paris and Nasdaq, is offering 6,400,000 ADSs (each representing one ordinary share) at $125.00 per ADS, raising approximately $800 million gross ($762 million net of $38 million in underwriting discounts). Joint bookrunners include Leerink Partners, Morgan Stanley, Piper Sandler, and Guggenheim Securities; delivery was expected on or about July 6, 2026. Underwriters hold a 30-day option for up to 960,000 additional ADSs. This is a significant dilutive capital raise likely funding clinical advancement or commercial expansion of Abivax's inflammation pipeline.

424B5Prospectus supplement (offering)Jun 30424B5
AI summary

Abivax (French biotech, Euronext Paris + Nasdaq) filed a preliminary 424B5 for a $600M ADS offering; joint bookrunners include Leerink Partners, Morgan Stanley, Piper Sandler, and Guggenheim Securities; registered direct offering structure with delivery expected July 2026. Significant dilutive capital raise for a commercial-stage biotech with transatlantic listing; proceeds likely support U.S. commercialization of obefazimod, its lead inflammation drug.

SC 13D/AActivist amendmentMay 11SC 13D/A
AI summary

Sofinnova Crossover I SLP filed an amended Schedule 13D on ABVX disclosing beneficial ownership (5,499,478.00 shares) as of 2026-05-11. The filer's stated intent is passive investment with no plan to influence control of the company.

+ 12 other (8 6-Ks · 2 13Gs · 1 F-6EF · 1 POSASR) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Cedar Grove Capital Q3 2026 Portfolio Updateseekingalpha.com·10d agoAbivax: Priced Right Ahead Of 2 Make-Or-Break Catalystsseekingalpha.com·24d agoThese Analysts Slash Their Forecasts On Abivax Following H1 Resultsbenzinga.com·25d agoAbivax Presents Business Updates and First Half 2026 Financial Resultsglobenewswire.com·26d agoAbivax SA Sponsored ADR (NASDAQ:ABVX) Given Average Rating of “Moderate Buy” by Brokeragesdefenseworld.net·26d ago

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TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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