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AAAAP

Advance Auto Parts, Inc.

$AAP·$2.6B·Specialty Retail·Consumer Cyclical
$44.13+0.5%YTD+11.0%1Y-18.1%
Price updated just now·X counts updated 5d ago
AAAAP
$AAPAdvance Auto Parts, Inc.
$44.13+0.48%51 posts1×
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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On X

The complete picture of $AAP on X — how loud the conversation is right now, how it has trended over the last two weeks, and which way the crowd is leaning.

51X posts · last 7 days
Sep 28Oct 11
Chatter Meter
1×
QuietNormal · 1×Loud

How loud $AAP's conversation on X is versus its own normal — 1× is typical, higher means busier. Right now it's about its usual level.

Bearish sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data18 posts analyzed · as of 2026-08-27

Advance Auto Parts sentiment is decisively bearish. Users highlight AAP -24.6% to $42.39 after Q2 showed a surprise -0.5% comparable-sales decline and DIY weakness, with $0.31 of the $1.03 EPS beat coming from a one-time tariff refund (masking operational deterioration). UBS cut its PT to $47 from $65 and Truist to $43 from $62 (Hold), and AAP is down 79% over 5 years. Retail also cites 'buy and hold' cynicism ('0% return over 21 years'). Bulls limit themselves to noting FY26 adj EPS guide raised on interest income. Community tone treats AAP as structurally challenged; the modal stance is 'tariff refunds mask DIY consumer weakness'.

Read what X is saying about $AAP

  • Bullish vs bearish call — with the AI summary of the day's posts
  • Divergence flag when the top-engagement posts argue the other side
  • How loud the conversation is versus this ticker's own normal
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AI verdictAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

TickerTalks' own read on what's driving $AAP — fundamentals, momentum, or an event — and whether it agrees with the X crowd.

Broken storySelling offAI verdict · as of 2026-10-02

Falling on heavy selling — points lower unless it turns around.

Advance Auto Parts at 3% of 52-week range — Q2 comp -0.5%, DIY weakness, UBS/Truist PT cuts to $47/$43.

Advance Auto Parts is a leading US automotive-parts retailer and supplier — DIY and professional installer customers. The stock is at 3% of its 52-week range after a 37% TTM decline on specific operational distress.

  • The P&L is softening: revenue fell 0.5% YoY to $2B last quarter at a 3.7% operating margin and EPS $0.91 — the surprise -0.5% comparable-sales decline reflects DIY weakness, and $0.31 of the $1.03 EPS beat came from a one-time tariff refund (masking operational deterioration).
  • The specific sell-side downgrades: UBS cut PT to $47 from $65, Truist to $43 from $62 (Hold) — plus AAP is down 79% over 5 years, which bulls can't easily argue past.
  • Officer O'Kelly's F-InKind $487K at $42.55 is routine PSU-vesting; no material insider buying to counter.

Breaking-down holds unless Nov 5 earnings confirm comparable sales trajectory stabilizes above -1% and operating margin recovers. Another soft comp print, or any specific commentary on competitive-pressure from AutoZone/O'Reilly, is what seals the de-rating further; a specific take-private or strategic review announcement is the asymmetric upside catalyst.

Agrees with X sentimentX bears on AAP -24.6% to $42.39 after Q2 surprise -0.5% comp decline, DIY weakness, $0.31 of $1.03 EPS beat from tariff refund masking operational deterioration, UBS cut to $47 (from $65), Truist $43 (from $62) Hold, and -79% 5-year framing have the specific operational distress right.

What to watch: Nov 5 earnings — comparable sales trajectory, DIY segment performance, operating margin recovery, tariff-refund-adjusted EPS. Another soft comp print or AutoZone/O'Reilly competitive-pressure commentary is what seals the breaking-down.

On the calendar: 2026-11-05 — Q3 FY26 earnings

Read the AI verdict on $AAP

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • Whether TickerTalks' read agrees with or diverges from the X crowd
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Advance Auto Parts retails automotive parts, accessories, and maintenance products through ~4,700 U.S. stores.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Specialty Retail sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $AAP.

Specialty Retail · Consumer Cyclical

No material change from last week — Consumer discretionary bifurcation deepens as XRT falls -7.

What this means for $AAP

Neutral — Advance Auto Parts retails automotive parts, accessories, and maintenance products through ~4,700 U.S. stores.

Top industry ETF

$XRTSPDR S&P Retail ETF
-4.3%YTD
+3.1%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
30.4How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
3.5%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
3.7%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
-6.8%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
0.3Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
3.8%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
44.7%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
2.3Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Aug 20, 2026$1.03$0.81+27.6%
Q1 2026May 21, 2026$0.77$0.39+97.4%
Q4 2025Feb 13, 2026$0.86$0.41+109.8%
Q3 2025Oct 30, 2025$0.92$0.74+24.3%
Next earningsThu, Nov 5·consensus EPS $0.80

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q2 FY26$2.0B-0.5%46.2%5.1%$0.91—
Q1 FY26$2.6B+1.2%45.1%3.8%$0.40$-75.0M
Q4 FY25$2.0B-1.2%44.0%3.4%$0.10$-21.0M
Q3 FY25$2.0B-5.2%43.3%2.7%$-0.02$-76.0M

Forward consensus

5-year forecast · up to 17 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY27$8.5B$8.5B – $8.6B$2.99$2.86 – $3.1017
FY28$8.7B$8.6B – $8.8B$3.91$3.59 – $4.3017
FY29$8.9B$8.7B – $9.2B$4.44$3.90 – $5.1910
FY30$9.2B$9.1B – $9.4B$4.75$4.66 – $4.845
FY31$9.5B$9.3B – $9.6B$4.59$4.51 – $4.684

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.1.2×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.22%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.-2.3%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.-14.8%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatMid float · 60.1M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today3.2% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β1.095-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

No open-market buys or sells in the last 180 days.

+ 28 other (25 awards · 3 inkinds) in window

See when $AAP insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

S-3ASRAuto-shelf registrationJul 14S-3ASR
AI summary

Advance Auto Parts filed an automatic shelf registration statement (Form S-3ASR) on July 13, 2026, which became effective immediately upon filing as a 'well-known seasoned issuer' under Rule 462(e), allowing delayed or continuous offering of an unspecified amount and type of securities under Rule 415. No specific security amount, type, or proposed use of proceeds are described in the excerpt. This is a routine shelf registration providing AAP flexibility to access capital markets over the next three years; no immediate offering is contemplated.

8-KOfficer or director changeJun 268-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change
AI summary

Advance Auto Parts disclosed that Kristen L. Soler, Executive Vice President and Chief Human Resources Officer, will leave the company to pursue other opportunities, serving in an advisory capacity effective June 26, 2026 through July 10, 2026. No successor CHRO was announced. The departure of a senior HR executive during AAP's ongoing strategic transformation is a modestly material personnel change, leaving a key workforce leadership role vacant.

8-KShareholder voteMay 228-K — Item 5.07: Shareholder vote
+ 9 other (5 13Gs · 2 10-Qs · 2 earnings 8-Ks) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Advance Auto Parts Announces Date for Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Release and Conference Callgurufocus.com·1d agoAdvance Auto Parts Announces Date for Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Release and Conference Callbusinesswire.com·1d agoWill Advance Auto Parts (AAP) Beat Estimates Again in Its Next Earnings Report?zacks.com·8d agoHere's Why Advance Auto Parts (AAP) is a Strong Value Stockzacks.com·17d agoA Look at Advance Auto Parts Inc (AAP) After 4.0% Gain -- GF Value $48.64 vs Price $42.66gurufocus.com·24d ago

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Voices on X · last 7 days

No standout posts about $AAP on X in the last 7 days.

TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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