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AAAAOI

Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.

$AAOI·$6.4B·Communication Equipment·Technology
$75.57-9.7%YTD+107.9%1Y+142.7%
Price updated 6h ago·X counts updated 5d ago
AAAAOI
$AAOIApplied Optoelectronics, Inc.
$75.57-9.75%2.9k posts1×
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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On X

Top X posts

The complete picture of $AAOI on X — how loud the conversation is right now, how it has trended over the last two weeks, and which way the crowd is leaning.

2,903X posts · last 7 days
Sep 29Oct 11
Chatter Meter
1×
QuietNormal · 1×Loud

How loud $AAOI's conversation on X is versus its own normal — 1× is typical, higher means busier. Right now it's about its usual level.

Bullish sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data30 posts analyzed · as of 2026-10-02

X is bullish on the photonics setup — a bipartisan Senate bill targeting Chinese optical transceivers for federal networks is being read as a direct AAOI tailwind, and Jefferies' 180M-unit 2027 transceiver forecast is piling on. Longs are already drawing $300-500 2027 targets. The restraint comes from short-term traders flagging ongoing ATM dilution and the fact Jefferies also noted the bill carves out private data centers — the actual demand base.

Read what X is saying about $AAOI

  • Bullish vs bearish call — with the AI summary of the day's posts
  • Divergence flag when the top-engagement posts argue the other side
  • How loud the conversation is versus this ticker's own normal
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AI verdictAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

TickerTalks' own read on what's driving $AAOI — fundamentals, momentum, or an event — and whether it agrees with the X crowd.

Driven by hypeCooling offAI verdict · as of 2026-10-03

Catching its breath after a run — could pick back up or fade from here.

A photonics name up 218% YTD on a real tailwind, now resting while the ATM program keeps diluting under the move.

Applied Optoelectronics makes the optical transceivers that connect servers and switches inside AI data centers. The company sits inside a genuine demand upcycle — 180M units Jefferies-modeled by 2027 — and the Senate bill targeting Chinese transceivers is the kind of policy tailwind this stock is built to catch.

  • The demand side is real but the margins aren't yet: Q4 revenue grew 51% YoY to $151M but operating margin was still -8.6%, and the last four earnings prints have oscillated between a +297% blowout beat and a -43% miss — this is a company whose P&L is still catching up to its order book.
  • The quiet overhang is the share count: an active ATM program is drip-selling stock into every rally — the bill carves out private data centers from the mandate (that's the actual customer base), so the policy tailwind is narrower than the thread implies.

Sitting mid-range at 45% of the 52-week after a 218% run, the setup is a classic cooling-off coil into Nov 5 earnings. A clean beat with a Q4 revenue guide-up extends the move; another EPS miss or an upsized ATM announcement is where the dilution-and-doubt camp finally has data.

Agrees with X sentimentThe bullish photonics-cycle read is grounded, and the restraint on ATM dilution plus the private-datacenter carve-out is a load-bearing hedge — both can be true. The $300-500 2027 targets are speculative; the Nov 5 print is the more useful marker.

What to watch: Nov 5 Q3 earnings — revenue, operating margin direction, and any guidance on the ATM program pace. A clean beat plus a slowed ATM is the trigger; another miss or a bigger ATM is the invalidation.

On the calendar: 2026-11-05 — Q3 earnings

event ahead 30dactive offering

Read the AI verdict on $AAOI

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • Whether TickerTalks' read agrees with or diverges from the X crowd
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Designs and manufactures fiber-optic transceivers and lasers for broadband access and hyperscale data center networking.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Communication Equipment sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $AAOI.

Communication Equipment · Technology

No material change from last week — AI data-center optical interconnects dominate capex.

What this means for $AAOI

Neutral — Designs and manufactures fiber-optic transceivers and lasers for broadband access and hyperscale data center networking.

Top industry ETF

$IYZiShares U.S. Telecommunications ETF
+29.5%YTD
+19.1%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
-310.3How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
-3.7%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
-11.6%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
-1.7%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
28.0Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
-6.1%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
29.6%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.2Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Aug 6, 2026$0.06$0.02+296.6%
Q1 2026May 7, 2026$-0.07$-0.05-42.9%
Q4 2025Feb 26, 2026$-0.01$-0.12+91.7%
Q3 2025Nov 6, 2025$-0.09$-0.10+10.0%
Next earningsThu, Nov 5·consensus EPS $0.14

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$151.1M+51.4%29.1%-8.6%$-0.19$-143.6M
Q4 FY25$134.3M+33.9%31.2%-8.6%$-0.03$74.5M
Q3 FY25$118.6M+82.1%28.0%-15.3%$-0.28$-78.8M
Q2 FY25$103.0M+137.9%30.3%-15.5%$-0.16$-91.0M

Forward consensus

3-year forecast · up to 4 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$1.0B$1.0B – $1.1B$0.74$0.67 – $0.804
FY27$3.0B$2.8B – $3.2B$5.55$4.92 – $6.173
FY28$5.1B$4.7B – $5.8B$10.67$9.50 – $12.581

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.1.5×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.27%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.-32.5%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.-31.4%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatMid float · 80.5M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today17.3% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β3.845-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.FilingActive offeringA shelf registration (S-3 / S-3ASR / S-1) or prospectus supplement (424B*) was filed in the last 90 days — the company is registered to (or actively) issuing new shares. Dilution risk.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellOct 12Stefan J. MurryCFO4.0K sh$411KSellOct 5Yeh Shu-hua (joshua)*** See Remarks6.0K sh$720KSellSep 10Stefan J. MurryCFO4.0K sh$421KSellSep 8Chang Hung-lun (fred)*** See Remarks32.2K sh$3.5MSellAug 18Yeh Shu-hua (joshua)*** See Remarks6.0K sh$886KSellAug 10Stefan J. MurryCFO4.0K sh$579KSellAug 4Yeh Shu-hua (joshua)*** See Remarks4.7K sh$596KSellJul 21Yeh Shu-hua (joshua)*** See Remarks1.3K sh$154KSellJul 10Stefan J. MurryCFO4.0K sh$488KSellJun 18Yeh Shu-hua (joshua)*** See Remarks6.0K sh$1.0M
1–10 of 27
+ 35 other (20 inkinds · 12 awards · 2 gifts · 1 other) in window

See when $AAOI insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

8-KMaterial agreementSep 158-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement · Item 2.03: Material debt obligation
AI summary

Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI), through subsidiary Global Technology, Inc., entered into a 10-year Factory Premises Lease Agreement with Ningbo Yiduofu Industrial Co., Ltd. for a ~38,312 sqm manufacturing building in Ningbo, China, commencing September 16, 2026. Annual rent is RMB 6,896,124 (~USD 950K), escalating 3% every three years starting year three; Global Technology holds right of first refusal to purchase or renew the property. This is a material operational commitment — new Chinese manufacturing capacity to support AAOI photonic component production, with buildout at Global Technology's expense.

8-KMaterial agreementSep 108-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement
AI summary

Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI) exercised its purchase option on its Houston, Texas facility (153,928 sq ft) for $26,783,472 in cash, with the transaction closing September 4, 2026. The company converts from a leasehold to full building ownership, likely its primary manufacturing site. Ownership eliminates lease-renewal risk and reduces long-term occupancy costs.

8-KMaterial agreementSep 18-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement · Item 2.03: Material debt obligation
AI summary

Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. entered into two industrial lease agreements on August 31, 2026 with Hightower Phase II Owner, LLC for Buildings 4 and 5 (adjacent to previously disclosed Buildings 1-3 in the same Houston, TX park), to be constructed at the landlord's cost. Each lease has an initial term of 120 full calendar months from commencement; if construction is not substantially complete by 18 months from execution, rent abates daily, and AAOI may terminate with 30 days' notice if delayed beyond 24 months. A significant manufacturing capacity expansion reflecting AAOI's build-out to serve growing AI/data-center optical transceiver demand.

8-KMaterial agreementAug 248-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement · Item 5.02: Officer or director change
AI summary

Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI) disclosed a material agreement (Item 1.01) involving an updated indemnification agreement form approved by the board on August 18, 2026, intended to replace existing agreements with directors and certain executive officers. The filing also triggers Item 5.02 (officer/director changes), but the specific personnel details are not visible in the excerpt. The indemnification update is a routine governance action providing legal protection to directors and officers; the officer-change component requires the full filing for details.

8-KMaterial agreementAug 218-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement
424B5Prospectus supplement (offering)Aug 21424B5
8-KMaterial agreementJul 18-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement · Item 2.03: Material debt obligation
AI summary

Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI) entered into a $94.1 million design-build agreement with LCC3 Solution Inc. on June 25, 2026, for construction of its OMD 3 (FAB4) cleanroom expansion in Houston — covering approximately 195,591 sq ft of ISO Class 6 cleanroom, 36,500 sq ft of office, and 73,780 sq ft of operations space. Payments are progress-based with 10% retainage withheld until final completion, monthly billing, and liquidated damages capped at $4.9 million for milestone delays. This is a material capital commitment in support of expanded photonics manufacturing capacity that will weigh on near-term cash flow.

8-KMaterial agreementJun 168-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement · Item 2.03: Material debt obligation
AI summary

Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. (AAOI) entered into a material definitive agreement (Item 1.01) and created a direct financial obligation (Item 2.03) per an 8-K filed June 16, 2026. Body unavailable — excerpt cuts off before the specific agreement counterparty, terms, or obligation amount are disclosed.

+ 29 other (9 S-8 POSs · 4 13Gs · 4 8-Ks · 3 proxys) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Why Applied Optoelectronics Stock Plummeted This Weekfool.com·15h agoApplied Optoelectronics Announces Date of Third Quarter 2026 Financial Results Conference Callprnewswire.com·2d agoOptical Stocks Extend Slide as Money Rotates Into Defensives: Applied Optoelectronics Falls 6%, Coherent Drops 7%, Lumentum Slips 5%247wallst.com·2d agoStruggling Photonics Stock Flashing 'Buy the Dip' Signalschaeffersresearch.com·3d agoApplied Optoelectronics Dives 9% as AI Funding Fears Hit Optical Stocks; Coherent Slides 7%, Lumentum Drops 7%247wallst.com·3d ago

In themes

Explore the broader themes this ticker is being talked about under.

AI InfrastructureAI Photonics & Co-Packaged Optics

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