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AAAAOI

Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.

$AAOI·$11B·Communication Equipment·Technology
$107.69+1.4%YTD+257.9%1Y+361.2%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-08-22: 415 posts2026-08-23: 218 posts2026-08-24: 720 posts3,317+17%
Price updated 6h ago·X counts updated 7d ago
AAAAOI
$AAOIApplied Optoelectronics, Inc.
$107.69+1.37%3.3k posts+17%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Top X posts

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $AAOI, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Driven by hypeCooling offAI verdict · as of 2026-08-30

Catching its breath after a run — could pick back up or fade from here.

The AI photonics story just met a $600M dilution event — 6% down today is the market pricing it in.

Applied Optoelectronics makes the optical transceivers that connect AI accelerators inside data centers. The stock has ripped roughly 3.7x over twelve months on the co-packaged-optics and 800G narrative, but the fresh $600M at-the-market offering announced after Friday's close is now what the tape is digesting.

  • The demand curve is genuinely there: revenue stepped from $103M to $119M to $134M to $151M across the last four quarters as hyperscaler LTAs and the Trymax multi-year equipment order fed through — analysts model over $1.04B of full-year revenue and $1.03 EPS on that pace, so 30%+ gross-margin scale-up is the pathway the bulls are pricing.
  • The P&L still isn't there: the last four quarters printed EPS of $-0.16, $-0.28, $-0.03, and $-0.19 with gross margin stuck around 30% — this is not a profitable business at present, and any modeling of a $10B market cap depends on both revenue scale and margin expansion, not just one.
  • The $600M ATM is the exact overhang the bears warned about: shares are down ~6% today on the disclosure, and an ATM continuously drips supply into any rally — bulls note the raise was flagged in the 10-K and funds capacity that demand needs, but a rolling supply overhang is still a rolling supply overhang while the stock chops.

A Nov 5 print that shows revenue crossing $170M with margin heading toward 35% funds the growth into the ATM and restarts the run; another quarter of flat gross margin with EPS still negative into a continuing ATM is what turns 'cooling' into a real air-pocket and puts the sub-$100 accumulation zone right back into play.

Agrees with X sentimentThe X debate is honest — the bulls are right that demand and capacity investment are real, and the bears are right that the freshly announced $600M ATM adds a rolling supply overhang that caps every rally attempt; the mixed sentiment tag matches the tape.

What to watch: The Nov 5 print — top-line above $170M, gross margin near 35%, and any pace commentary on the $600M ATM. Continuing negative EPS with an aggressive ATM pace is the setup for a real reprice.

On the calendar: 2026-11-05 — Q3 earnings

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Bullish sentiment129 posts analyzed · as of 2026-08-31

Bullish tilt with active bear pushback. Longs lean on the "demand is not the problem" line from management, highlight the third $600M shelf as capacity funding, and cite Landmark's 2027-2030 CW-laser LTAs as multi-year lock-ins. Skeptics slam the ATMs as overusing dilution, call a 100% rally in a week "unhealthy," and warn the chart looks like a mean-reversion dead-cat bounce before the next leg down.

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $AAOI

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  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Designs and manufactures fiber-optic transceivers and lasers for broadband access and hyperscale data center networking.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Communication Equipment sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $AAOI.

Communication Equipment · Technology

AI networking — the Ethernet and InfiniBand infrastructure connecting GPU clusters — is the high-growth demand driver; CSCO's AI backlog and Arista's data center wins confirm the cycle. Traditional enterprise networking refresh is slower; AI infrastructure is where the incremental spending is.

What this means for $AAOI

Partial — cloud infrastructure exposure benefits indirectly from hyperscaler capex; core business is Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.

Top industry ETF

$IYZiShares U.S. Telecommunications ETF
+27.1%YTD
+37.3%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
-310.3How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
-3.7%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
-11.6%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
-1.7%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
28.0Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
-6.1%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
29.6%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.2Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Aug 6, 2026$0.06$0.02+296.6%
Q1 2026May 7, 2026$-0.07$-0.05-42.9%
Q4 2025Feb 26, 2026$-0.01$-0.12+91.7%
Q3 2025Nov 6, 2025$-0.09$-0.10+10.0%
Next earningsThu, Nov 5·consensus EPS $0.14

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$151.1M+51.4%29.1%-8.6%$-0.19$-143.6M
Q4 FY25$134.3M+33.9%31.2%-8.6%$-0.03$74.5M
Q3 FY25$118.6M+82.1%28.0%-15.3%$-0.28$-78.8M
Q2 FY25$103.0M+137.9%30.3%-15.5%$-0.16$-91.0M

Forward consensus

3-year forecast · up to 4 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$1.0B$933.0M – $1.2B$1.03$0.65 – $1.424
FY27$2.8B$2.4B – $3.2B$5.73$4.50 – $6.943
FY28$4.2B$3.3B – $5.1B$11.60$8.43 – $15.151

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.4×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.44%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.-8.9%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.+15.3%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatMid float · 75.9M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today5.8% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β3.795-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.FilingActive offeringA shelf registration (S-3 / S-3ASR / S-1) or prospectus supplement (424B*) was filed in the last 90 days — the company is registered to (or actively) issuing new shares. Dilution risk.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellAug 18Yeh Shu-hua (joshua)*** See Remarks6.0K sh$886KSellAug 10Stefan J. MurryCFO4.0K sh$579KSellAug 4Yeh Shu-hua (joshua)*** See Remarks4.7K sh$596KSellJul 21Yeh Shu-hua (joshua)*** See Remarks1.3K sh$154KSellJul 10Stefan J. MurryCFO4.0K sh$488KSellJun 18Yeh Shu-hua (joshua)*** See Remarks6.0K sh$1.0MSellJun 17Chang Hung-lun (fred)*** See Remarks40.3K sh$6.9MSellJun 12Stefan J. MurryCFO33.0K sh$5.5MSellJun 12David C Kuo*** See Remarks29.2K sh$4.9MSellJun 12Yeh Shu-hua (joshua)*** See Remarks28.8K sh$4.8M
1–10 of 31
+ 34 other (20 inkinds · 12 awards · 1 gift · 1 other) in window

See when $AAOI insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

8-KMaterial agreementAug 248-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement · Item 5.02: Officer or director change
AI summary

Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI) disclosed a material agreement (Item 1.01) involving an updated indemnification agreement form approved by the board on August 18, 2026, intended to replace existing agreements with directors and certain executive officers. The filing also triggers Item 5.02 (officer/director changes), but the specific personnel details are not visible in the excerpt. The indemnification update is a routine governance action providing legal protection to directors and officers; the officer-change component requires the full filing for details.

8-KMaterial agreementAug 218-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement
424B5Prospectus supplement (offering)Aug 21424B5
8-KMaterial agreementJul 18-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement · Item 2.03: Material debt obligation
AI summary

Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI) entered into a $94.1 million design-build agreement with LCC3 Solution Inc. on June 25, 2026, for construction of its OMD 3 (FAB4) cleanroom expansion in Houston — covering approximately 195,591 sq ft of ISO Class 6 cleanroom, 36,500 sq ft of office, and 73,780 sq ft of operations space. Payments are progress-based with 10% retainage withheld until final completion, monthly billing, and liquidated damages capped at $4.9 million for milestone delays. This is a material capital commitment in support of expanded photonics manufacturing capacity that will weigh on near-term cash flow.

8-KMaterial agreementJun 168-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement · Item 2.03: Material debt obligation
AI summary

Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. (AAOI) entered into a material definitive agreement (Item 1.01) and created a direct financial obligation (Item 2.03) per an 8-K filed June 16, 2026. Body unavailable — excerpt cuts off before the specific agreement counterparty, terms, or obligation amount are disclosed.

3New insider — initial holdingsJun 113
AI summary

Robert James Flanagan filed a Form 3 initial beneficial ownership statement as a newly appointed Director of Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. (AAOI), with an event date of June 4, 2026. The filing reports no securities beneficially owned — neither direct nor derivative holdings. This is a routine administrative director-entry filing with no market impact.

8-KOfficer or director changeJun 58-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change · Item 5.07: Shareholder vote
AI summary

Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. (AAOI) disclosed the results of its annual meeting of shareholders in an 8-K filing under Item 5.07. Shareholders voted on an equity incentive plan. All management-sponsored proposals were approved by majority shareholder vote. Annual meeting results are a routine disclosure that confirms shareholder ratification of the board's composition and compensation practices.

8-KMaterial agreementMay 148-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement
AI summary

AAOI entered into a equity distribution agreement (8-K Item 1.01, dated 2026-05-14). Counterparty: Raymond James & Associates, Inc. and Needham & Company, LLC (collectively. Size: approximately $600 million. Material definitive agreement — investors should review the full exhibit for covenants, conditions, and use of proceeds.

+ 33 other (9 S-8 POSs · 6 13Gs · 5 8-Ks · 3 proxys) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Optics Stocks Slide as AI Hardware Trade Cools: Applied Optoelectronics and Lumentum Fall 6%, Coherent Drops 5%247wallst.com·4d agoASML or AAOI: Which Tech Stock Is Better-Placed at Present?zacks.com·6d agoAAOI Benefits From Strong 800G Demand: Can It Beat LITE & COHR?zacks.com·7d agoApplied Optoelectronics: Investors Are Over-Discounting Growth Prospectsseekingalpha.com·7d agoWhy Applied Optoelectronics Stock Dived by Almost 14% on Mondayfool.com·7d ago

In themes

Explore the broader themes this ticker is being talked about under.

AI InfrastructureAI Photonics & Co-Packaged Optics

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